Apr. 16-22 Southwest (So. Cal) Heatwave, Despite April showers, rainfall still well below normal. Options

[Beck]

Late winter storms rolled through the southland this week, but most areas still received less rainfall than predicted. Much of Southern California remains 2-7 inches below normal to date.

There are no more storms on the horizon for Southern California for a while, as we enter a more mild, sometimes warm Springtime weather pattern. High pressure will keep things warm for the first part of next week.

This post has been edited by Beck: Apr 16 2012, 01:23 PM

[Beck]

La Nina is also fading, and it's pretty much done with us by this point. ENSO forecast models are predicting neutral ENSO conditions to persist through at least September.

[Beck]

I think it's time that we classify 2011-12 winter in my own list of winters here since 2000:

Awesome
2004-05
2010-11

Great
2009-10
2007-08
2002-03
2000-01

Eh...
2011-12
2005-06
2003-04

Annoying
2008-09
1999-00

Depressing
2006-07
2001-02

This post has been edited by Beck: Apr 14 2012, 05:17 PM

[Al.J]

I think it's time that we classify 2011-12 winter in my own list of winters here since 2000:

Awesome
2004-05
2010-11

Great
2009-10
2007-08
2002-03
2000-01

Eh...
2010-11
2005-06
2003-04

Annoying
2008-09
1999-00

Depressing
2006-07
2001-02

I would say after our heavy rain and thunderstorms the past few days I would classify it as Annoying since up until March there was barely any rainfall.

[FrostFuzz]

I think it's time that we classify 2011-12 winter in my own list of winters here since 2000:

Awesome
2004-05
2010-11

Great
2009-10
2007-08
2002-03
2000-01

Eh...
2010-11
2005-06
2003-04

Annoying
2008-09
1999-00

Depressing
2006-07
2001-02

I assume you mean 2011-12 in the Eh catagory, in which case I would agree. Fall was very good imo, and spring has been also. Winter itself was pretty lousy though, especially once you look past the mid March storm.

[Jet Developer]

Will the April showers bring May flowers, or will they bring May Gray?

[Beck]

I would say after our heavy rain and thunderstorms the past few days I would classify it as Annoying since up until March there was barely any rainfall.

Those winters I put under Annoying were filled to the brim with unseasonably hot weather, constantly. They had Santa Ana Winds & Offshore Flow at nearly every turn, with the rain periods occurring in just two week-long cold spells. But I do see what you mean.

I assume you mean 2011-12 in the Eh catagory, in which case I would agree. Fall was very good imo, and spring has been also. Winter itself was pretty lousy though, especially once you look past the mid March storm.

Whoops...took me a while to notice that

Yeah. But, it has been worse. At least we didn't make the bottom of that list, which it looked like we might have for a little while there.

Will the April showers bring May flowers, or will they bring May Gray?

One long, strong ridge of high pressure that refuses to budge would do the trick - it did in 2004. However, I don't see that as likely to happen this year.

This post has been edited by Beck: Apr 14 2012, 05:18 PM

[Jet Developer]

May 2010 was actually cold, but there were so many unseasonably cold, late storms that year that the marine layer kept getting wiped out so we did not have too much of the May Gray. Then we had our typical late spring weather all summer and almost no sun at all along the coast for most of July and August.

NWS San Diego is now saying we could get a long wave trough with more cold and rain after next week. I expect at least two more low snow level storms (similar to the recent one) this spring, maybe one in the second half of May, as we seem to be 3 months behind this winter/spring.

I remember when I joined in May 2010, there was a post about a potential heat wave (that never happened), and it became the longest post ever for California.


This post has been edited by Jet Developer: Apr 14 2012, 05:55 PM

[Beck]

May 2010 was actually cold, but there were so many unseasonably cold, late storms that year that the marine layer kept getting wiped out so we did not have too much of the May Gray. Then we had our typical late spring weather all summer and almost no sun at all along the coast for most of July and August.

NWS San Diego is now saying we could get a long wave trough with more cold and rain after next week. I expect at least two more low snow level storms (similar to the recent one) this spring, maybe one in the second half of May, as we seem to be 3 months behind this winter/spring.

I remember when I joined in May 2010, there was a post about a potential heat wave (that never happened), and it became the longest post ever for California.

Actually May 2011 was cooler and wetter in most spots, including here.

[Beck]

Back to Back Rainstorms and Wild April Weather Hit Southern California.

I learned something new today, according to the above article. Downtown L.A set a new rainfall record yesterday of 0.49" inches, beating the previous record set back in 1956.

Also, the weather really warms up to possibly the upper 80s for us later this week.

[Artisane]

We ended up with snow sticking down to the 3500ft level with this last storm. The view of the San Gabriels is just amazing and it looks more December than April. We only got to 52F yesterday with brisk winds.

I really do hope we're not done with rain for the year.

[LALEO]

The following week still has several rain storms forecast...Couple runs have been consistent with this feature...Definitely be following it!

[Beck]

Personally, I think it's too soon to make that call, since it's over a week and a half away. I'll start to believe it if the models are still showing this a week from now.

Warm week ahead: High Pressure aloft will make this week a rather warm one for this time of year, running at least 5 degrees above average persistently. We're looking at mid-to-upper 80s the whole week, and possibly 90F on Friday. Now THAT's what I'm talking about.

[Beck]

On another note, we broke an 11-year old record low this morning, which was 40F in 2001. This morning, we had a cold low of 39F, smashing that old record.

[LALEO]

Personally, I think it's too soon to make that call, since it's over a week and a half away. I'll start to believe it if the models are still showing this a week from now.

Warm week ahead: High Pressure aloft will make this week a rather warm one for this time of year, running at least 5 degrees above average persistently. We're looking at mid-to-upper 80s the whole week, and possibly 90F on Friday. Now THAT's what I'm talking about.

Hey, that kind of talk won't be tolerated around here!! =P However these past two storms for example were in the models weeks in advance so who knows. You are absolutely correct though....Anything can happen in the long range.

[Al.J]

GFS now forecasts 850MB temps to rise to near 18C for NorCal by the end of the week, that would put us near 90F in Sacramento. It then suggests a t-storm event, interesting.....

[alxz310]

I agree that we'll probably get one more storm before April comes to an end

BY SUNDAY AFTERNOON THE TROUGH AXIS IS FORECAST TO MOVE OVER 130 W LONGITUDE...WITH SOUTHWEST FLOW INTRODUCING SOME PRECIP CHANCES AND A COOLING TREND FOR THE AREA SUNDAY INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK.

[Beck]

Time to break out the swimming trunks!

CAZ048-161015-
SAN BERNARDINO AND RIVERSIDE COUNTY VALLEYS-THE INLAND EMPIRE-
200 PM PDT SUN APR 15 2012

.TONIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 44 TO 50. LIGHT WINDS.
.MONDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. WARMER. HIGHS 74 TO 81. LIGHT WINDS.
.MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 48 TO 55. LIGHT WINDS.
.TUESDAY...SUNNY. HIGHS 79 TO 86. LIGHT WINDS.
.TUESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 48 TO 56. LIGHT WINDS.
.WEDNESDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 80 TO 86.
.WEDNESDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 49 TO 55.
.THURSDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 79 TO 86.
.THURSDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 51 TO 58.
.FRIDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. WARMER. HIGHS 85 TO 93.
.FRIDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 52 TO 57.
.SATURDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 81 TO 88.
.SATURDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLEAR. LOWS 51 TO 57.
.SUNDAY...MOSTLY SUNNY. HIGHS 76 TO 84.

[alxz310]

Just found this picture from two years ago - anyone miss this?

This post has been edited by alxz310: Apr 15 2012, 10:38 PM

Attached image(s)

 

[ChrisL]

Time to break out the swimming trunks!

Yeah seriously...I need my pool to warm up

EDIT: Forgot to mention, updated rainfall from this last storm was 0.65"

This post has been edited by ChrisL: Apr 15 2012, 10:44 PM