Apr 21-23 MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-4 days] Options

[NYCSuburbs]

Looks like good news for drought stricken areas. Are we really still wishcasting snowstorms in late April though?

They haven't happened in November, December, January, February, March, early April. That does not sound to me like anything supporting a snowstorm outside of the higher elevations of the Northeast considering this pattern and the time of the year...

[saracenic arch]

They haven't happened in November, December, January, February, March, early April. That does not sound to me like anything supporting a snowstorm outside of the higher elevations of the Northeast considering this pattern and the time of the year...

My point exactly.

[WEATHERFAN100]

GFS looks really interesting...severe weather?

[albanyweather]

LOL, the DGEX does not want to be out done by the Euro!

This post has been edited by albanyweather: Apr 18 2012, 08:28 PM

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[albanyweather]

sorry, I know NoreEaster posted the map of the Euro earlier but had to post a few from Wunderground. Don't think this will happen

[Superstorm93]

I'd pay for this to happen in February...

[NYCSuburbs]

Latest 0z NAM so far is even more separated with the front and the low pressure than the previous run and the 18z GFS... having a moderate intensity storm like the 12z GFS/18z DGEX had is a reasonable possibility, but at the same time there's also a lower but still realistic possibility that the storm ends up staying further east with not enough phasing to pull it NNW into New York state.

[NYCSuburbs]

It's 11:13 PM, after the NAM has finished running... if only there was an 0z DGEX

[telejunkie]

I missed last week's epic NNE snows...if this one pans out, I won't be missing round 2!

[NorEaster07]

...there's also a lower but still realistic possibility that the storm ends up staying further east with not enough phasing to pull it NNW into New York state.

Yup. GFS 00z decides to keep the 2 systems seperate (no phasing) so the cold front comes through first and pushes the storm well East of the area giving us NO RAIN. The only rain we get is from a small wave before which is less than an inch.

I dont see another good chance until end of month. This solution wouldnt be good for our drought.

06z is updating now.

[NorEaster07]

Here's the current infrared Satellite Map... You can see what needs to happen.

The cold front can't come through too fast it will cause Senario #2.

But if it comes too slow then the storm can go inland west of us Senario #1.

Senario #3 would be to phase them and have the storm right on the coast.

I dont believe Senario #2 will happen.

[NorEaster07]

6z GFS is again East. No Rain. LOL Gees.

[yankees]

This "talk of drought" is already reality for many areas under a moderate-severe drought, and while this storm should ease it, it will not end the drought - we saw that in 2010 when a late September storm with as much as 15 inches of rain almost eliminated the drought, fully doing so inland but it didn't finish the job for eastern areas which still had about 2-5". Most of the region so far is only near or less than 25% of its average rainfall this month (Source), and it would take a widespread 2+ inch rainfall to make this month a wetter than average one for the areas hardest hit by the drought (I-95 from Delmarva to NJ, central/southern New England), which 2" are possible in some areas but IMO not region-wide.

If some of the models out there verify, this could be a more impressive storm, but I wouldn't say that this storm alone ends up making April a wet month, which even if it does so it will not be what this month will be remembered for, as opposed to the fires and drought.

Agreed March and this first part of April will be remembered for the brush/wildfires that occured across a large part of the area. Rainstorms happen all the time including 2+ inch ones but droughts and this many brush fires happen every 5-10 years.

Here's pretty much what the Euro12z snow total showed. (not an exact)

[attachment=161869:Euro36.jpg]

Wow about 8-9 inches by me in April. It would for sure be interesting if that verified and my to largest snowfalls were not in winter but fall and spring.

[LUCC]

Wait until Saturday for the answer, it would be very disappointing if we got no rain from this! All options are still on the table.

[NYCSuburbs]

Wait until Saturday for the answer, it would be very disappointing if we got no rain from this! All options are still on the table.

What an easy forecast for me to make... either heavy rain and 1-3 inches or mostly cloudy skies on Monday. Couldn't be easier... [/end sarcasm]

Especially that I have to make a 7-day forecast today, this doesn't help... either way I go I could easily bust on this. I'd think that going with "rain expected" for Sunday and "rain possible" for Monday could do it for now

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 19 2012, 06:07 AM

[NorEaster07]

HPC

[NorEaster07]

Upton.

THERE IS THE POTENTIAL FOR HEAVY RAIN AND COASTAL FLOODING FROM
SUNDAY THROUGH MONDAY.

A COLD FRONT APPROACHES ON SATURDAY AND BECOMES NEARLY STATIONARY
ALONG THE COAST. THERE ARE SOME DIFFERENCES BETWEEN THE 00Z
OPERATIONAL GFS AND THE 00Z ECMWF IN TERMS OF THE PLACEMENT OF THE
FRONT...AND WHERE THIS FRONT SETS UP WILL DETERMINE WHERE THE
HEAVIEST OF THE RAIN WILL FALL.

DEEP UPPER TROUGH DIGS INTO THE OH VALLEY AS WELL THROUGH THE
WEEKEND...AND INTERACTION WITH THIS UPPER LOW WILL HELP AID THE
DEVELOPMENT OF THE RAINFALL. WILL CONTINUE TO CARRY LIKELY POPS
FROM SATURDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY. PERIODS OF LOCALLY HEAVY RAIN
ARE EXPECTED DURING THIS TIME...AND DEPENDING ON WHERE THE FRONTAL
BOUNDARY SETS UP...ANYWHERE FROM 1 TO 4 INCHES OF RAIN IS EXPECTED
DURING THAT TIME.

THIS WILL MARK A SIGNIFICANT CHANGE IN THE WEATHER PATTERN AS
COMPARED TO THE LAST 3 MONTHS OR SO...WITH SIGNIFICANT INFLUENCES
FROM THE ATLANTIC AND THE GULF OF MEXICO.

WITH A NEW MOON PREDICTED FOR SATURDAY...COASTAL FLOODING MAY COME
INTO PLAY AS WELL LATER SUNDAY INTO MONDAY.

[NYCSuburbs]

Upton.

Looks like they're heavily relying on the ECM/CMC. Not that these solutions are impossible, but especially given the recent trends I would also pay attention to the GFS/NAM, as although I think they may have gone too far east, a less phased solution may be perhaps a more likely outcome with at least some rain as opposed to 1-3+ inches of rain.

[jdrenken]

This is our culprit ladies and gentlemen. When it comes onshore in BC, we will know at least the "Northern stream" component. According to the GFS, it could happen by 00Z run. So, keep an eye on the OBS.

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[albanyweather]

HPC prelim.

DETAIL ISSUES CONTINUE TO ABOUND IN THE EAST...WHERE THE 00Z GFS
IS WELL NORTHEAST OF THE OTHER GUIDANCE WITH CYCLONE TRACK AND
TROUGH PROGRESSION...OUTPACING ALL OTHER AVAILABLE GUIDANCE...SO
IT COULD NOT BE USED. A COMPROMISE OF THE 00Z GFS PARALLEL/00Z
UKMET/00Z ECMWF WAS USED FOR SUNDAY. ON MONDAY...DUE TO ISSUES
ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST...THE 00Z UKMET COULD NO LONGER BE
USED. BY TUESDAY...THE 00Z ECMWF BECOMES A SOUTH TO SOUTHWEST
OUTLIER WITH THE DEEP CYCLONE NEAR THE NORTHEAST /WHERE IT HAS
BEEN TRENDING NORTHEAST SINCE THIS TIME YESTERDAY/ AND HAD MINIMAL
12Z GLOBAL ENSEMBLE SUPPORT WITH THE FEATURE MID NEXT WEEK...SO IT
WAS NO LONGER USABLE. THIS LEFT THE 00Z CANADIAN/00Z GFS
PARALLEL/12Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN WHICH WERE USED FOR PRESSURES
FROM TUESDAY ONWARD. THIS LED TO A QUICKER CYCLONE PROGRESSION
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST/SOUTHEAST CANADA THAN CONTINUITY.

WEATHER-WISE...THE GULF COAST CYCLONE SHOULD BRING A CONVECTIVELY
ACTIVE FRONT ACROSS THE FLORIDA PENINSULA SATURDAY NIGHT/SUNDAY
MORNING. THE EASTERN SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SPREAD
SIGNIFICANT/DROUGHT-RELIEVING RAINS NEAR THE EAST COAST AND
THROUGH THE NORTHEAST WITH LOCAL AMOUNTS OF 4-8 INCHES POSSIBLE.
SNOWS APPEAR MOST LIKELY ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA/NEW YORK WITH THIS
SYSTEM. PRECIPITATION IS EXPECTED ACROSS WASHINGTON STATE MONDAY
ONWARD AS ONSHORE FLOW AND A PAIR OF UPPER DISTURBANCES KEEP THE
WEATHER UNSETTLED. THE WEATHER SHOULD BE QUITE WARM AND DRY
ACROSS THE SOUTHWEST THROUGH WEDNESDAY...BEFORE A COOL DOWN OCCURS
LATER NEXT WEEK.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdepd