Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

20 Pages V  « < 8 9 10 11 12 > »   
Closed TopicStart new topic
> Apr 21-23 MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-4 days]
Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 19 2012, 04:05 PM
Post #181




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,325
Joined: 17-December 08
From: CNJ
Member No.: 16,547





The Nws introduced the word snow into my forecast

QUOTE
Sunday Night: A chance of rain before 5am, then a chance of rain and snow. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 35. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Monday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 51. Chance of precipitation is 50%.

Monday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 40%.

Tuesday: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a high near 50. Chance of precipitation is 30%.

Tuesday Night: A chance of rain and snow showers. Mostly cloudy, with a low around 34. Chance of precipitation is 30%



http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?C...mp;lon=-74.9928

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: Apr 19 2012, 04:05 PM


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Apr 19 2012, 04:05 PM
Post #182




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,680
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Apr 19 2012, 04:51 PM) *
In case anyone remembers, for the Feb 23-24 storm the ECM was the most amplified model and was the last one to become less amplified -.


I was trying to remember which last storm who had the more amplified solution and then it gave into the other major model.. But I do remember one storm where the Euro was right on the snow totals from this far out. Not sure if it was the same storm we're thinking, but I dont have the time to check all that. I think it was Feb 29th when it was north of us?

Anyway - Obviously one will be wrong. lol How about a middle.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Apr 19 2012, 04:14 PM
Post #183




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,795
Joined: 29-August 08
Member No.: 15,491





QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 19 2012, 04:05 PM) *
I was trying to remember which last storm who had the more amplified solution and then it gave into the other major model.. But I do remember one storm where the Euro was right on the snow totals from this far out. Not sure if it was the same storm we're thinking, but I dont have the time to check all that. I think it was Feb 29th when it was north of us?

Anyway - Obviously one will be wrong. lol How about a middle.

Feb 29th it showed a major snowstorm for NE NJ and was the southernmost model - I got nothing laugh.gif

One I can think of is the storm around 2/20 or so in the Southeast, where it handled it best from the medium range into the short range. When storms this winter involved phasing, the ECM seems to have frequently overdone it though. I agree with the last statement; one or more models will be wrong here, and IMO the GFS/NAM will be on the east side and the ECM on the west. If I had to give an instant forecast, I would go with something a little west of the CMC.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Apr 19 2012, 04:14 PM
Post #184




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,074
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567







Verification Scores for the ECMWF and GFS over the past many runs. Notice how the ECMWF has a dominant hold over this comparison. This is just me, but considering how it first pointed out the 2011 Groundhog Day Blizzard, and won the 2011 October snowstorm, the ECMWF and ECMWF Ensembles may have a pretty good fight going for themselves.
But hey- i'm from the Midwest. What do I know? laugh.gif

Verifications from PoliClimate

Quick write-up on my blog on the verification scores.

This post has been edited by The Snowman: Apr 19 2012, 04:15 PM


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Apr 19 2012, 04:19 PM
Post #185




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,795
Joined: 29-August 08
Member No.: 15,491





18z DGEX starting to run... comparing the latest 18z NAM (hour 72) to where the 6z DGEX started (NAM hour 84), the southern vort is north and stronger, but the northern stream digs a bit less. Hard to tell exactly what'll happen, but it should be west of the 6z run when it stayed well to the east.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 19 2012, 04:20 PM
Post #186




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,325
Joined: 17-December 08
From: CNJ
Member No.: 16,547





KALB

QUOTE
SAT-SAT NT...AFOREMENTIONED COLD FRONT WILL MOVE E SAT...BUT SOME
UNCERTAINTY AS TO HOW FAST IT MOVES E. MODELS DEPCIT AN ANAFRONTAL
STRUCTURE TO THIS FRONT...WITH MOST RAIN/SHOWERS ON COOL SIDE OF
BOUNDARY. DURING THE MORNING...HAVE GENERALLY KEPT HIGHEST POPS
FOR AREAS WEST OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...SLOWLY INCREASING FROM
W TO E FROM MID MORNING INTO THE AFTERNOON HOURS...AND POSSIBLY
NOT UNTIL LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING ACROSS FAR S/E AREAS.
ASSUMING THIS SLIGHTLY SLOWER FORWARD MOVEMENT OF THE FRONT...HAVE
GENERALLY SIDED WITH THE WARMER MAV MOS FOR MAXES...WITH 65-70
WITHIN AND E OF THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...AND 50S TO LOWER 60S
FURTHER W. IN MANY AREAS...TEMPS MAY ACTUALLY PEAK AROUND
MIDDAY...BEFORE FALLING DURING THE AFTERNOON HOURS. FOR SAT
NT...EXPECT SOME SHOWERS TO LINGER EARLY...MAINLY FROM ALBANY S
AND E...WHERE CHC POPS ARE INDICATED. EXPECT MUCH COOLER TEMPS SAT
NT...ALTHOUGH HAVE SIDED A BIT HIGHER THAN THE MET MOS...WITH
35-40 ACROSS THE HUDSON RIVER VALLEY...COOLEST NORTH...AND UPPER
20S TO MID 30S ACROSS THE SOUTHERN ADIRONDACKS AND WESTERN MOHAWK
VALLEY REGION.



QUOTE
.LONG TERM /SUNDAY THROUGH THURSDAY/...
-- Changed Discussion --
HPC GUIDANCE DUE TO MODEL UNCERTAINTIES. A WET PATTERN SHOULD
CONTINUE WELL INTO THE WORK WEEK. LOW PRESSURE DEEPENING AND
RIDING NORTH ALONG A STATIONARY FRONT AT THE START OF NEXT WEEK
SHOULD PROVIDE THE IMPETUS FOR RAIN...WITH MIXED PRECIPITATION OR
SNOW POSSIBLE IN THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS. THE LOW MAY BECOME CUT
OFF OVER SOUTHERN QUEBEC BY TUESDAY...WITH CONTINUED MOSTLY
CLOUDY AND SHOWERY CONDITIONS...MAINLY ACROSS THE NORTHERN ZONES.
AS THE LOW LIFTS NORTH AND WEAKENS...POPS DIMINISH FURTHER...TO
SLGT CHC EVERYWHERE BY THURSDAY...BY WHICH TIME SUNSHINE
INCREASES....AND HIGH TEMPERATURES BOUNCE BACK INTO THE 50S AND
60S. THE COOLEST DAY WILL BE MONDAY...WITH HIGHS PRIMARILY IN THE
LOW 40S TO MID 50S RANGE.



http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...mp;highlight=on


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Apr 19 2012, 04:38 PM
Post #187




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 33,073
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(The Snowman @ Apr 19 2012, 04:14 PM) *


Verification Scores for the ECMWF and GFS over the past many runs. Notice how the ECMWF has a dominant hold over this comparison. This is just me, but considering how it first pointed out the 2011 Groundhog Day Blizzard, and won the 2011 October snowstorm, the ECMWF and ECMWF Ensembles may have a pretty good fight going for themselves.
But hey- i'm from the Midwest. What do I know? laugh.gif

Verifications from PoliClimate

Quick write-up on my blog on the verification scores.


It's also about the trends. For instance, are we going to be in a 'spike' or are we heading into a 'valley' for this storm. Keep in mind also the sample of the graphs. Are they for the NOAM, NOHM, or CONUS.

Here is the HPC Day 5 verifications specific to the CONUS...


EDIT: Going further...the verifications are for the track, not the specifics. How many times were the tracks awesome, but not enough cold air this winter?


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Apr 19 2012, 05:04 PM
Post #188




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,795
Joined: 29-August 08
Member No.: 15,491





Interesting - at hour 54 the 18z GFS seems to be more separated with the northern stream and the southern s/w looking at 500mb, but at the surface they almost seem to be a bit closer. Either way it doesn't look like a jump to the foreign models; and the short range battle continues...

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 19 2012, 05:05 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
paletitsnow63
post Apr 19 2012, 05:09 PM
Post #189




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,408
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Denver, PA
Member No.: 16,714





12Z Euro Ensembles at H96 & H120:






Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Apr 19 2012, 05:33 PM
Post #190




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,795
Joined: 29-August 08
Member No.: 15,491





QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Apr 19 2012, 05:09 PM) *
12Z Euro Ensembles at H96 & H120:

We should've had this during January, not in April. The only thing possibly worse than a winter like this followed by an active spring pattern is a continuation of this increasingly chilly/amplified pattern through the fall followed by a reversal to another zonal flow next winter - I would lose if it we get 2 unbelievably terrible winters in a row...
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
gulfofslides
post Apr 19 2012, 05:42 PM
Post #191




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,755
Joined: 7-January 08
From: Hingham
Member No.: 12,082





QUOTE(paletitsnow63 @ Apr 19 2012, 06:09 PM) *
12Z Euro Ensembles at H96 & H120:

That is not going to happen
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Apr 19 2012, 05:45 PM
Post #192




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,795
Joined: 29-August 08
Member No.: 15,491





QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Apr 19 2012, 05:42 PM) *
That is not going to happen

Maybe not the level of amplification that the 2nd frame has, but the low could easily be positioned near the first frame.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Apr 19 2012, 06:45 PM
Post #193




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,680
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





So 18z GFS shifed a tad west again and gives these results for snow.

Small band of 8-10 in NH and Maine. 4-6 all of NH, parts of VT and northern MA.

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Apr 19 2012, 06:58 PM
Post #194




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,680
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





Last 4 runs of GFS. Obvious West trend and also stronger.

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LoveNYCSnow
post Apr 19 2012, 07:44 PM
Post #195




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 25,904
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Ulster County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





hard to believe I'm back on here in late April but this storm has me intriqued, a potential bomb of a storm with potential for heavy wet snow inland.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Superstorm93
post Apr 19 2012, 07:47 PM
Post #196




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 8,863
Joined: 24-January 08
From: Nowhere, ND
Member No.: 13,040





RPM has less than a half inch of rain for this storm lol

12z ECMWF had 3-4"


--------------------
Millersville University Meteorology Major

Realism
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grandpaboy
post Apr 19 2012, 08:04 PM
Post #197




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,527
Joined: 24-January 08
From: 39.96N, 74.2W
Member No.: 12,978





QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Apr 19 2012, 08:44 PM) *
hard to believe I'm back on here in late April but this storm has me intriqued, a potential bomb of a storm with potential for heavy wet snow inland.


You should be with us ALL year round here............. wink.gif


If the 12z EURO comes true.........forget tree snapping snow.......tree snapping wind........Leaves just busted out on the trees here

winds approaching 45 knots along the coast per the EURO

This post has been edited by grandpaboy: Apr 19 2012, 08:04 PM


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Apr 19 2012, 08:07 PM
Post #198




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,795
Joined: 29-August 08
Member No.: 15,491





QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Apr 19 2012, 08:04 PM) *
You should be with us ALL year round here............. wink.gif


If the 12z EURO comes true.........forget tree snapping snow.......tree snapping wind........Leaves just busted out on the trees here

winds approaching 45 knots along the coast per the EURO

Still could easily end up as even a moderate wet snowstorm inland as long as the storm aplifies and tracks NNW.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LoveNYCSnow
post Apr 19 2012, 08:08 PM
Post #199




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 25,904
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Ulster County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Apr 19 2012, 09:04 PM) *
You should be with us ALL year round here............. wink.gif
If the 12z EURO comes true.........forget tree snapping snow.......tree snapping wind........Leaves just busted out on the trees here

winds approaching 45 knots along the coast per the EURO


lol thats true but there hasn't really been much to follow storm wise at all, so a major storm+the potential for wintry weather in parts of the region is like a double whammy, if it even happens, but looking at the 12Z Euro and the trend of the 18Z GFS a major storm for at least parts of the reason is looking more likely.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
grandpaboy
post Apr 19 2012, 08:09 PM
Post #200




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,527
Joined: 24-January 08
From: 39.96N, 74.2W
Member No.: 12,978





This is not drought busting rains..........like it was showing a few days ago.....


Attached Image


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

20 Pages V  « < 8 9 10 11 12 > » 
Closed TopicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 1st November 2014 - 04:38 AM