Apr 21-23 MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-4 days] Options

[NorEaster07]

Maybe we can use the word "finally" if this verifys only because we'll finally be getting over .10" of rain falling.

GFS has been showing it for a number of runs now. And latest Euro and GFS are practically identical at the same hour too.

So far every storm has been broken apart to now or moved North into Canada well west of us.

We'll see.

[LUCC]

Definitely seen this scenario before......

[NorEaster07]

Definitely seen this scenario before......

!

[Fire/Rescue]

Definitely seen this scenario before......

You aren't kidding

[NYCSuburbs]

I like chances for this one a little better, but it's still not something I'd hope on to significantly ease the drought at least from the latest look on the models... it can't possibly go on from now until June without a single decent rainstorm, even the disaster Dec-Feb time frame had one snowstorm for NYC, and while this might not be a big rainstorm, at least there should be some rain in the region. Even last night which apparently had almost nothing here (I landed back in NJ last night after the rain, the ground was completely dry) had rain somewhere in the region.

[WEATHERFAN100]

I like chances for this one a little better, but it's still not something I'd hope on to significantly ease the drought at least from the latest look on the models... it can't possibly go on from now until June without a single decent rainstorm, even the disaster Dec-Feb time frame had one snowstorm for NYC, and while this might not be a big rainstorm, at least there should be some rain in the region. Even last night which apparently had almost nothing here (I landed back in NJ last night after the rain, the ground was completely dry) had rain somewhere in the region.

Agreed...later this week should be cooler with showery weather. Though I still don't think this is going to be the "drought buster", every little bit of water counts.

[NorEaster07]

Last couple runs GFS has rain for 3 days straight over the area. In fact showed mountain snows during this time period for a little bit.

This is from the latest 00z run.

[gulfofslides]

Last couple runs GFS has rain for 3 days straight over the area. In fact showed mountain snows during this time period for a little bit.

This is from the latest 00z run.

I suspect that Mt Washington will get 4-6" which will get it close to avg snowfall for April. That would be the first month of 2011-12 that avg snowfall has been near normal

[NorEaster07]

I suspect that Mt Washington will get 4-6" which will get it close to avg snowfall for April. That would be the first month of 2011-12 that avg snowfall has been near normal

Nice stat. Thanks!


Here's the Euro 00z for April 22/23. Maybe some Appalacian snows over WV.




This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 16 2012, 06:51 AM

[LUCC]

I really hope we get this, but we shall see. If this same setup is shown a day before the event I will believe.

[grandpaboy]

Nice stat. Thanks!
Here's the Euro 00z for April 22/23. Maybe some Appalacian snows over WV.

IMHO...the Euro looks off its rocker with the 0z run, i can't see that much blocking happening...I think the GFS is getting the better idea with a more progressive LP probably coming up the Apps, and I believe there still won't be much precip along and ahead of the main LP area.....

[el Bunzo]

12Z GFS has a nice soaking for Sun-Mon timeframe

[grandpaboy]

12z GFS follows the 0z EURO and the 12z Euro is more robust with the LP up the Apps.....

[fboy]

12Z GFS has a nice soaking for Sun-Mon timeframe

Just what the doctor ordered. Now lets hope it actually verifies

[NYCSuburbs]

12z GFS follows the 0z EURO and the 12z Euro is more robust with the LP up the Apps.....

Maybe the ECM's long range blocking from its 0z run may be excessive, but I don't see why there can't be such a big storm with blocking... the pattern from this winter has changed, the pattern's no longer as progressive as it was in the winter, blocking forms more easily, and the overall pattern is more amplified. IMO the actual scenario, as long as there's no huge change in the pattern, may be at least slightly weaker with the storm than the latest models, but with such a storm, the good news is that as long as it's not too progressive, it could use a lot of gulf/Atlantic moisture to dump a good amount of rain over parts of the region.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 16 2012, 02:09 PM

[Superstorm93]

You gotta be kidding me...


I'm supposed to leave JFK at 8am Sunday for West Palm. Just when it finally decides to rain...


12z ECMWF

CODE

SAT 18Z 21-APR  15.1     9.5    1008      77       7    0.00     568     561    
SUN 00Z 22-APR  14.3    11.0    1007      83      92    0.00     567     560    
SUN 06Z 22-APR  13.7    11.3    1005      96      69    0.16     565     560    
SUN 12Z 22-APR  14.0    11.2    1003      96      88    0.23     563     561    
SUN 18Z 22-APR  15.1    10.5    1002      90      72    0.14     562     560    
MON 00Z 23-APR  14.5    10.9    1000      93      98    0.43     561     561    
MON 06Z 23-APR  14.1    11.3     997      96      60    0.58     557     559    
MON 12Z 23-APR  12.8     9.1     997      92      64    0.17     553     556

[LUCC]

Just what the doctor ordered. Now lets hope it actually verifies

Yeah, lets hope this verifies.

[grandpaboy]

Maybe the ECM's long range blocking from its 0z run may be excessive, but I don't see why there can't be such a big storm with blocking... the pattern from this winter has changed, the pattern's no longer as progressive as it was in the winter, blocking forms more easily, and the overall pattern is more amplified. IMO the actual scenario, as long as there's no huge change in the pattern, may be at least slightly weaker with the storm than the latest models, but with such a storm, the good news is that as long as it's not too progressive, it could use a lot of gulf/Atlantic moisture to dump a good amount of rain over parts of the region.

Im not saying its impossible.......right now its, i'll believe it when I see it.......

[NYCSuburbs]

Im not saying its impossible.......right now its, i'll believe it when I see it.......

The big storm part, I mainly agree, although with the incoming trough I would not be surprised if we get at least a medium sized storm - monster storm though is something I'll believe when I see. Regarding the blocking, we've already had much bigger blocking in late March-early April, and under this pattern minor blocking as shown on some models (not the 0z ECM) could easily verify.

[NorEaster07]

Upton

"FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT THE 500MB PATTERN AMPLIFIES...AND ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BUT FOR NOW...CAPPED POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE TREND TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION IS NOT QUITE ESTABLISHED. SHOULD THE TREND CONTINUE...WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WOULD BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS"

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 16 2012, 04:16 PM