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> Apr 21-23 MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-4 days]
NorEaster07
post Apr 15 2012, 05:40 AM
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Maybe we can use the word "finally" if this verifys only because we'll finally be getting over .10" of rain falling.

GFS has been showing it for a number of runs now. And latest Euro and GFS are practically identical at the same hour too.

So far every storm has been broken apart to now or moved North into Canada well west of us.

We'll see.

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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LUCC
post Apr 15 2012, 07:04 AM
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Definitely seen this scenario before......


--------------------
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
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NorEaster07
post Apr 15 2012, 07:43 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Apr 15 2012, 08:04 AM) *
Definitely seen this scenario before......


laugh.gif !


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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Fire/Rescue
post Apr 15 2012, 08:34 AM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Apr 15 2012, 08:04 AM) *
Definitely seen this scenario before......

You aren't kidding dry.gif
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 15 2012, 12:12 PM
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I like chances for this one a little better, but it's still not something I'd hope on to significantly ease the drought at least from the latest look on the models... it can't possibly go on from now until June without a single decent rainstorm, even the disaster Dec-Feb time frame had one snowstorm for NYC, and while this might not be a big rainstorm, at least there should be some rain in the region. Even last night which apparently had almost nothing here (I landed back in NJ last night after the rain, the ground was completely dry) had rain somewhere in the region.
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WEATHERFAN100
post Apr 15 2012, 03:40 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Apr 15 2012, 01:12 PM) *
I like chances for this one a little better, but it's still not something I'd hope on to significantly ease the drought at least from the latest look on the models... it can't possibly go on from now until June without a single decent rainstorm, even the disaster Dec-Feb time frame had one snowstorm for NYC, and while this might not be a big rainstorm, at least there should be some rain in the region. Even last night which apparently had almost nothing here (I landed back in NJ last night after the rain, the ground was completely dry) had rain somewhere in the region.

Agreed...later this week should be cooler with showery weather. Though I still don't think this is going to be the "drought buster", every little bit of water counts.


--------------------
-James
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NorEaster07
post Apr 16 2012, 05:27 AM
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Last couple runs GFS has rain for 3 days straight over the area. In fact showed mountain snows during this time period for a little bit.

This is from the latest 00z run.


Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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gulfofslides
post Apr 16 2012, 06:40 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 16 2012, 06:27 AM) *
Last couple runs GFS has rain for 3 days straight over the area. In fact showed mountain snows during this time period for a little bit.

This is from the latest 00z run.


Attached Image

I suspect that Mt Washington will get 4-6" which will get it close to avg snowfall for April. That would be the first month of 2011-12 that avg snowfall has been near normal
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NorEaster07
post Apr 16 2012, 06:51 AM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Apr 16 2012, 07:40 AM) *
I suspect that Mt Washington will get 4-6" which will get it close to avg snowfall for April. That would be the first month of 2011-12 that avg snowfall has been near normal


Nice stat. Thanks!


Here's the Euro 00z for April 22/23. Maybe some Appalacian snows over WV.


Attached Image


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 16 2012, 06:51 AM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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LUCC
post Apr 16 2012, 08:12 AM
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I really hope we get this, but we shall see. If this same setup is shown a day before the event I will believe. biggrin.gif


--------------------
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
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grandpaboy
post Apr 16 2012, 09:53 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 16 2012, 07:51 AM) *
Nice stat. Thanks!
Here's the Euro 00z for April 22/23. Maybe some Appalacian snows over WV.


Attached Image



IMHO...the Euro looks off its rocker with the 0z run, i can't see that much blocking happening...I think the GFS is getting the better idea with a more progressive LP probably coming up the Apps, and I believe there still won't be much precip along and ahead of the main LP area.....


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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el Bunzo
post Apr 16 2012, 12:49 PM
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12Z GFS has a nice soaking for Sun-Mon timeframe

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grandpaboy
post Apr 16 2012, 01:48 PM
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12z GFS follows the 0z EURO and the 12z Euro is more robust with the LP up the Apps.....



Attached Image


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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fboy
post Apr 16 2012, 02:02 PM
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QUOTE(el Bunzo @ Apr 16 2012, 01:49 PM) *
12Z GFS has a nice soaking for Sun-Mon timeframe


Just what the doctor ordered. Now lets hope it actually verifies
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 16 2012, 02:09 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Apr 16 2012, 01:48 PM) *
12z GFS follows the 0z EURO and the 12z Euro is more robust with the LP up the Apps.....



Attached Image

Maybe the ECM's long range blocking from its 0z run may be excessive, but I don't see why there can't be such a big storm with blocking... the pattern from this winter has changed, the pattern's no longer as progressive as it was in the winter, blocking forms more easily, and the overall pattern is more amplified. IMO the actual scenario, as long as there's no huge change in the pattern, may be at least slightly weaker with the storm than the latest models, but with such a storm, the good news is that as long as it's not too progressive, it could use a lot of gulf/Atlantic moisture to dump a good amount of rain over parts of the region.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 16 2012, 02:09 PM
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Superstorm93
post Apr 16 2012, 02:44 PM
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You gotta be kidding me...
mad.gif

I'm supposed to leave JFK at 8am Sunday for West Palm. Just when it finally decides to rain...


12z ECMWF
CODE
SAT 18Z 21-APR  15.1     9.5    1008      77       7    0.00     568     561    
SUN 00Z 22-APR  14.3    11.0    1007      83      92    0.00     567     560    
SUN 06Z 22-APR  13.7    11.3    1005      96      69    0.16     565     560    
SUN 12Z 22-APR  14.0    11.2    1003      96      88    0.23     563     561    
SUN 18Z 22-APR  15.1    10.5    1002      90      72    0.14     562     560    
MON 00Z 23-APR  14.5    10.9    1000      93      98    0.43     561     561    
MON 06Z 23-APR  14.1    11.3     997      96      60    0.58     557     559    
MON 12Z 23-APR  12.8     9.1     997      92      64    0.17     553     556


--------------------
Millersville University Meteorology Major

Realism
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LUCC
post Apr 16 2012, 03:01 PM
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QUOTE(fboy @ Apr 16 2012, 02:02 PM) *
Just what the doctor ordered. Now lets hope it actually verifies

Yeah, lets hope this verifies. dry.gif


--------------------
Winter '13-'14 Snow total: 62"
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grandpaboy
post Apr 16 2012, 03:04 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Apr 16 2012, 03:09 PM) *
Maybe the ECM's long range blocking from its 0z run may be excessive, but I don't see why there can't be such a big storm with blocking... the pattern from this winter has changed, the pattern's no longer as progressive as it was in the winter, blocking forms more easily, and the overall pattern is more amplified. IMO the actual scenario, as long as there's no huge change in the pattern, may be at least slightly weaker with the storm than the latest models, but with such a storm, the good news is that as long as it's not too progressive, it could use a lot of gulf/Atlantic moisture to dump a good amount of rain over parts of the region.



Im not saying its impossible.......right now its, i'll believe it when I see it....... wink.gif


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 16 2012, 04:15 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Apr 16 2012, 03:04 PM) *
Im not saying its impossible.......right now its, i'll believe it when I see it....... wink.gif

The big storm part, I mainly agree, although with the incoming trough I would not be surprised if we get at least a medium sized storm - monster storm though is something I'll believe when I see. Regarding the blocking, we've already had much bigger blocking in late March-early April, and under this pattern minor blocking as shown on some models (not the 0z ECM) could easily verify.
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NorEaster07
post Apr 16 2012, 04:16 PM
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Upton

QUOTE
"FOR THE WEEKEND THROUGH MONDAY...MODELS AGREE THAT THE 500MB PATTERN AMPLIFIES...AND ARE BEGINNING TO CONVERGE ON THE IDEA THAT A LOW PRESSURE CENTER STRENGTHENS OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY BEFORE MOVING NORTH TOWARDS THE MID ATLANTIC ON MONDAY. SHOULD MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THIS...POPS WILL NEED TO BE INCREASED ESPECIALLY FOR SUNDAY NIGHT AND MONDAY. BUT FOR NOW...CAPPED POPS IN THE CHANCE CATEGORY AS THE TREND TOWARDS THIS SOLUTION IS NOT QUITE ESTABLISHED. SHOULD THE TREND CONTINUE...WE COULD SEE AN INCH OR TWO OF RAINFALL DURING THIS PERIOD WHICH WOULD BRING SOME RELIEF TO THE DROUGHT CONDITIONS"


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 16 2012, 04:16 PM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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