Apr. 19-23 Plains/MW/OV/GL Storm, Reality: Short Range [0-4 days] Options

[Juniorrr]

Could possibly see some heavy rain and maybe a flake or two in there? If you want to go to the extreme with "snow", you would want to hug the Euro which actually shows a couple inches of snow for some around the eastern lakes... But we all know how the Euro and this "winter?" has preformed. I would go with rain and thunderstorms

~ Looks interesting to watch nonetheless

Here is Euro Fantasy World
0z


12z


The GFS is sorta similar to the Euro but not as crazy with cold air.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Apr 17 2012, 06:16 AM

[Juniorrr]

.LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
FOR SATURDAY INTO SUNDAY...MODELS SUGGEST THAT ENERGY WILL CONTINUE
TO DIG INTO THE SE U.S. AND CLOSE OFF AS A MID LVL CIRCULATION.
MODELS THEN TRY TO MOVE THIS LOW NORTHWARD AND EVENTUALLY NORTHWEST
SUNDAY INTO MONDAY. HOW THIS EXACTLY EVOLVES IS STILL UNCERTAIN AT
THIS POINT...AND ITS PROXIMITY OR RETROGRESSION BACK INTO OUR AREA
WILL KEEP CLOUDS AND COOL WX AS WELL AS A THREAT FOR SHOWERS FROM
TIME TO TIME. WILL CONTINUE WITH THE HIGHEST POPS FRIDAY INTO
SATURDAY MORNING...AND THEN WILL BROAD BRUSH THE REMAINDER OF THE
EXTENDED WITH LOW CHANCES OF RAIN UNTIL DETAILS BECOME MORE CERTAIN.

ABOVE NORMAL TEMPERATURES THURSDAY AND FRIDAY WILL EVENTUALLY COOL
TO MUCH BELOW READINGS THIS WEEKEND INTO NEXT WEEK.

[East Dubzz]

Looks kind of rainy for some of us on the 00z NAM. This is the 36 hour total at hour 84. I have baseball games Thursday and Friday, and if this comes true, I'm starting to wonder if those will be in jeopardy. It has me in the 2+" of rain. While I know that may be over doing it and the location of this will change, still looks like we'll be getting a decent amount of rain either way.

[East Dubzz]

Wow, didn't realize it until I started looking through some stuff, but that run showed some decent back side snows after a good rainfall. That probably wouldn't be a good thing. Anyway, some decent amounts of snow in some places:

[Juniorrr]

Could see some locally heavy rain around the lakes

[wxman1952]

someone say SNOW? *bleep*. I heard that last weeks frost killed 95% of the grapes in SW lower Michigan.

[Juniorrr]

12z CMC has a nice soaker and a big bomb over the lakes... please stop overphasing and teasing us you darn CMC!

[jdrenken]

Please post in the OBS thread for the first part of the system that is North. We'll keep this one open for the cut-off scenario.

[Stratocumulus]

Is this thread for the possible snow storm in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania?

Excerpted from the NWS CLE's AFD:

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FAR
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS
FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND DROPPING A SHORT WAVE INTO THE
MEAN UPPER TROF OVER OHIO SUNDAY WHICH SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPENS THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND NEW YORK MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. BIG QUESTION OF COURSE IS HOW MUCH PRECIP REACHES BACK
WEST ACROSS THE AREA...AND HOW MUCH IS SNOW. THE SURFACE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THEN MOVES ONSHORE NRN
NJ/LONG ISLAND AREA MONDAY 12Z AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NY.
NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DUMPING SNOW BACK ACROSS NWRN PA WITH 10
INCHES IN FAR EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES BY TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 3 INCHES...IF PRECIP FALLS AS
ALL SNOW AND THEN DOES NOT MELT UPON IMPACT. WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH LAST FORECAST HOWEVER WILL ALLOW FOR A COMPLETE
CHANGE TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO. WILL HAVE
PRECIP BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AS AS EITHER/OR RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO
THE AREA FRONT THE SOUTHEAST. AS SAID...OVERNIGHT WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW AND THEN SHOULD GO BACK TO MOSTLY RAIN MONDAY. WILL HAVE
CAT POPS FAR EAST BUT WILL DROP BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE KCLE. MONDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR EAST AND WILL GO WITH A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW. TUESDAY THE LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC ALTHOUGH GFS SHOWS
ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH THE AREA IN AN APPARENT
OVERRUNNING SETUP. 850MB TEMPS AT THIS POINT SUPPORT RAIN.

This post has been edited by Stratocumulus: Apr 21 2012, 08:12 AM

[jdrenken]

Is this thread for the possible snow storm in eastern Ohio and western Pennsylvania?

Excerpted from the NWS CLE's AFD:

MODELS CONTINUE TO SHOW THE EVOLUTION OF A DEEP UPPER LOW OVER THE
REGION SUNDAY THROUGH TUESDAY WITH THE POTENTIAL FOR SNOW FAR
NORTHEAST OHIO AND NORTHWEST PA SUNDAY NIGHT INTO TUESDAY. MODELS
FAIRLY SIMILAR THROUGH THE WEEKEND DROPPING A SHORT WAVE INTO THE
MEAN UPPER TROF OVER OHIO SUNDAY WHICH SUBSTANTIALLY DEEPENS THE
SYSTEM AS IT MOVE NORTH ACROSS CENTRAL PA AND NEW YORK MONDAY INTO
TUESDAY. BIG QUESTION OF COURSE IS HOW MUCH PRECIP REACHES BACK
WEST ACROSS THE AREA...AND HOW MUCH IS SNOW. THE SURFACE SYSTEM
STRENGTHENS ALONG THE EAST COAST AND THEN MOVES ONSHORE NRN
NJ/LONG ISLAND AREA MONDAY 12Z AND THEN MOVES NORTHEAST ACROSS NY.
NAM IS MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DUMPING SNOW BACK ACROSS NWRN PA WITH 10
INCHES IN FAR EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD COUNTIES BY TUESDAY
MORNING WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 3 INCHES...IF PRECIP FALLS AS
ALL SNOW AND THEN DOES NOT MELT UPON IMPACT. WILL REMAIN CLOSE TO
PERSISTENCE WITH LAST FORECAST HOWEVER WILL ALLOW FOR A COMPLETE
CHANGE TO SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT NWRN PA AND NERN OHIO. WILL HAVE
PRECIP BEGIN SUNDAY EVENING AS AS EITHER/OR RAIN/SNOW MOVING INTO
THE AREA FRONT THE SOUTHEAST. AS SAID...OVERNIGHT WILL CHANGE TO
ALL SNOW AND THEN SHOULD GO BACK TO MOSTLY RAIN MONDAY. WILL HAVE
CAT POPS FAR EAST BUT WILL DROP BACK TO SLIGHT CHANCE KCLE. MONDAY
NIGHT WILL HAVE LIKELY POPS FAR EAST AND WILL GO WITH A MIX OF
RAIN/SNOW. TUESDAY THE LOW MOVES INTO QUEBEC ALTHOUGH GFS SHOWS
ANOTHER LOW MOVING INTO THE NORTHERN PLAINS WITH A WARM FRONT
SOUTHEAST INTO THE LOWER OHIO VALLEY WITH THE AREA IN AN APPARENT
OVERRUNNING SETUP. 850MB TEMPS AT THIS POINT SUPPORT RAIN.

Yes

[Stratocumulus]

Probability of 4"+



Probability of 8"+



Probability of 12"+



This post has been edited by Stratocumulus: Apr 21 2012, 08:17 AM

[Juniorrr]

12z NAM gives W.PA and E.OH some action

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Apr 21 2012, 10:18 AM

[Juniorrr]

[HassayWx2306]

so models are showing me at 6-12 for this, thought I was geared for may and hot but since were taking a weird trip back in time with the weirdest winter ever. Itll be my biggest system snow of the year if it validates