 Apr 21-22 MidAtl/NE Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: "See Text" - Forecasts & OBS |
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  Apr 19 2012, 03:55 PM
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#1
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 6,037 Joined: 5-February 09 From: Albany, NY Member No.: 17,493  |
Seeing signs of a marginal threat so might as well start a thread. I would expect to see a general risk area at the least from SPC soon.
This post has been edited by albanyweather: Apr 20 2012, 07:41 AM -------------------- Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3" Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2" Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3" Snowfall 2008-2009: 52.5" Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7" |
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Apr 19 2012, 04:36 PM
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#2
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,262 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(albanyweather @ Apr 19 2012, 03:55 PM)  Seeing signs of a marginal threat so might as well start a thread. I would expect to see a general risk area at the least from SPC soon. Not sure why they didn't add it with today's update... tomorrow's update should most likely add a 5% "See Text" region and it wouldn't surprise me if a small slight risk is needed near I-95. There's marginal LI/CAPE, some bulk shear, and a relatively moist squall line moving through, supporting locally heavy/strong thunderstorms. -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Apr 19 2012, 05:31 PM
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#3
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 408 Joined: 9-February 10 From: Providence, RI Member No.: 21,613 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Apr 19 2012, 04:36 PM) Not sure why they didn't add it with today's update... tomorrow's update should most likely add a 5% "See Text" region and it wouldn't surprise me if a small slight risk is needed near I-95. There's marginal LI/CAPE, some bulk shear, and a relatively moist squall line moving through, supporting locally heavy/strong thunderstorms. Which part of 1-95? I'm not good enough at reading these models yet to be able to figure it out myself. |
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Apr 19 2012, 05:34 PM
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#4
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,262 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
QUOTE(saracenic arch @ Apr 19 2012, 05:31 PM) Which part of 1-95? I'm not good enough at reading these models yet to be able to figure it out myself. Probably from Virginia to southern New England, maybe up to Maine although the Maine part is uncertain. -------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Apr 19 2012, 05:47 PM
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#5
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 408 Joined: 9-February 10 From: Providence, RI Member No.: 21,613 |
QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Apr 19 2012, 05:34 PM) Probably from Virginia to southern New England, maybe up to Maine although the Maine part is uncertain. Thanks! I didn't realize this threat came so far north. |
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Apr 19 2012, 06:16 PM
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#6
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,687 Joined: 6-February 08 From: LANCASTER PA Member No.: 13,459 |
MLCAPE looks decent for I-95 corridor, on the GFS.
GFS and the NAM to some sort has a minimal severe threat. -------------------- -James
Severe T-storm Watches: Severe Warnings:1 Tornado Watches: Tornado Warnings: # of 100+ degrees days: |
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Apr 19 2012, 07:02 PM
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#7
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 205 Joined: 25-July 11 From: Halifax Mass Member No.: 25,837 |
Wow looks good for this time of year, on some years it is the best we ever get.
-------------------- Weather 2012-2013
Oct 28-29 Sandy Gust to 60MPH Oct 29 Thunder storms Dec 29 2.8 inch of snow |
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Apr 19 2012, 07:39 PM
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#8
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 29,262 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 |
These are my thoughts on the severe potential at this time. I'm testing out a different method for severe wx forecasting this year, with the two categories on the map below:
QUOTE Category A - Isolated Risk: Category A risks represent isolated thunderstorm activity across the risk zone, where most places often stay dry but some of the thunderstorms may end up locally strong or severe. This zone also represents scattered or widespread rain/thunderstorm activity but only with a few locally strong/severe storms. Category B - Scattered Risk: Category B risks represent scattered thunderstorm activity across the risk zone, where some but not many storms end up reaching severe criteria. This risk category is issued for any of the following potentials: Isolated tornado risk, low to moderate hail/wind risk.
-------------------- Visit my weather website for the NYC area
Past winter totals for Albany (Avg ~60"): 11-12: 23.3", 12-13: 51.4" Past winter totals for NE NJ (Avg ~30"): 06-07: 14.7", 07-08: 17.0", 08-09: 34.5", 09-10: 58.7", 10-11: 68.5", 11-12 disaster: 12.5 inches 12-13: 36.6" |
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Apr 19 2012, 08:05 PM
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#9
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,037 Joined: 5-February 09 From: Albany, NY Member No.: 17,493 |
18z NAM shear is not so good. Low CAPE and LI.
-------------------- Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3" Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2" Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3" Snowfall 2008-2009: 52.5" Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7" |
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Apr 19 2012, 11:49 PM
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#10
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 57 Joined: 8-January 08 From: Brooklyn(Ocean Pkwy+Church Ave),NYC Member No.: 12,161 |
WOW!! I hope I'll see a thunderstorm here in Laconia,NH-Friday is my last day on vacation. Last year I received 1 inch of snow on my last day on vacation. I just remembered, my last big thunderstorm was in Laconia NH in September 2011.
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Apr 20 2012, 05:49 AM
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#11
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,687 Joined: 6-February 08 From: LANCASTER PA Member No.: 13,459 |
Both Saturday and Sunday now has a 5% "SEE TEXT" over the region...
Saturday:
Sunday:
-------------------- -James
Severe T-storm Watches: Severe Warnings:1 Tornado Watches: Tornado Warnings: # of 100+ degrees days: |
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Apr 20 2012, 12:10 PM
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#12
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 256 Joined: 6-April 12 Member No.: 26,517 |
Severe Weather Threat has decreased slightly for the Northeast/Middle Atlantic. But has increased for FL. Cannot completely dismiss the severe weather for the Northeast/Middle Atlantic because the strong forcing along the cold front will combine with the 500-1000J/Kg and create a few line segments (if 0-6km shear is SLIGHTLY higher than projected) if not than multicells will produce and isolated wind damage. The dry mid levels/widespread T/td spreads at the sfc will create a wind damage threat.
Florida- Increasing LLJ and storms intersecting warm front could create a few tornadoes. Severe Weather Map For Saturday -------------------- |
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Apr 21 2012, 12:44 PM
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#13
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 256 Joined: 6-April 12 Member No.: 26,517 |
Severe Wx threat is increasing for the Northeast and Mid Atlantic based off recent sfc obs and radar. Still going to be an isolated threat but vis sat imagery is showing continued sfc heating with stronger mid level winds increasing over the region favoring the organization of small scale line segments. More information here : Severe Wx Threat Increasing
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Apr 21 2012, 12:48 PM
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#14
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,687 Joined: 6-February 08 From: LANCASTER PA Member No.: 13,459 |
Storms starting to pop across Central PA/Maryland at this time.
Not severe, but looks like storms could get gusty later on. -------------------- -James
Severe T-storm Watches: Severe Warnings:1 Tornado Watches: Tornado Warnings: # of 100+ degrees days: |
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Apr 21 2012, 12:51 PM
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#15
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,037 Joined: 5-February 09 From: Albany, NY Member No.: 17,493 |
looks like some small cells starting to pop just west of here. Had pretty much full sun all day. DPs are so low though which is not helping. Shear is starting to increse and instability weak but better than I thought it would be.
-------------------- Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3" Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2" Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3" Snowfall 2008-2009: 52.5" Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7" |
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Apr 21 2012, 02:13 PM
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#16
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,087 Joined: 21-December 09 From: Clifton Park, NY Member No.: 20,500 |
QUOTE(albanyweather @ Apr 21 2012, 01:51 PM) looks like some small cells starting to pop just west of here. Had pretty much full sun all day. DPs are so low though which is not helping. Shear is starting to increse and instability weak but better than I thought it would be. Rumbles of thunder and a brief heavy downpour in Clifton Park. -------------------- First Day above 60: April 8
First Day above 65: April 18 First Day above 70: April 19 First Day above 75: May 1 First Day above 80: May 2 First Day above 85: First Day above 90: First Day above 95: |
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Apr 21 2012, 06:47 PM
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#17
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 11,687 Joined: 6-February 08 From: LANCASTER PA Member No.: 13,459 |
Heavy downpour with thunder and lightning.
Front has cooled temperatures from 74 degrees to 61 now. -------------------- -James
Severe T-storm Watches: Severe Warnings:1 Tornado Watches: Tornado Warnings: # of 100+ degrees days: |
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Apr 21 2012, 07:19 PM
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#18
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 |
Current lightning
-------------------- -Mike P
Realism |
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Apr 21 2012, 07:35 PM
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#19
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 6,037 Joined: 5-February 09 From: Albany, NY Member No.: 17,493 |
finally getting some thunder and lightning here.
-------------------- Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3" Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2" Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3" Snowfall 2008-2009: 52.5" Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7" |
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Apr 21 2012, 07:47 PM
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#20
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,860 Joined: 24-January 08 From: Nowhere, ND Member No.: 13,040 |
Somehow a nice cell developed in NJ...
EWR just got kicked into VCP 80 and is transmitting data every minute!
-------------------- -Mike P
Realism |
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