 April 23rd Eastern Canada Storm, Last Minute Forecasts and OBS |
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 Apr 21 2012, 07:39 AM
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#21
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Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 699 Joined: 11-October 10 From: Burlington Member No.: 24,046  |
QUOTE(Ryan45 @ Apr 21 2012, 07:01 AM)  Lol go figure eh??? La nina all winter and we get squat... it turns to el nino last week and we get a snowstorm...  No kidding eh???? What irony it would be if we actually did get accumulating snow out of this!!!!  
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Apr 21 2012, 08:35 AM
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#22
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
Technically speaking we haven't entered an El Nino yet. The La Nina is ending and transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions with expectations of a weak-to-moderate El Nino sometime later in the year based on current trends and long-range models.
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Apr 21 2012, 08:39 AM
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#23
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,659 Joined: 21-January 08 From: Alliston,Ontario Member No.: 12,822 |
Models show the big snows to the south of Lake Erie and Ontario. We look to get about 3-8cm of wet slushy snow out of this. That's my take.
-------------------- Track winter storms with expert analysis on either one of my two blogs:
http://scglweather.blogspot.com/ Exclusive Southern Ontario Weather Blog Travis |
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Apr 21 2012, 08:49 AM
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#24
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 508 Joined: 30-January 09 From: south of Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 17,244 |
NOOOOOO! Henry has dry-slotted me! No fair! Unbelievable.
Attached File(s)
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Apr 21 2012, 10:25 AM
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#25
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 128 Joined: 4-December 09 Member No.: 19,969 |
Is it just me or the storm looks weaker than a few days ago ?
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Apr 21 2012, 10:36 AM
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#26
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,119 Joined: 23-November 10 From: Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 24,422 |
QUOTE(EOsnowmom @ Apr 21 2012, 08:49 AM) NOOOOOO! Henry has dry-slotted me! No fair! Unbelievable. For once I want to be in the dry slot, snow this late is crazy Come on it cant even snow in DECEMBER!!!
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Apr 21 2012, 10:40 AM
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#27
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
QUOTE(EOsnowmom @ Apr 21 2012, 09:49 AM) NOOOOOO! Henry has dry-slotted me! No fair! Unbelievable. Warmer air being drawn into the eastern side of the storm seems as if it will deliver more in the way of rain for sections of E ON as things look now. QUOTE(TheFrenchman @ Apr 21 2012, 11:25 AM) Is it just me or the storm looks weaker than a few days ago ? In terms of minimum central pressure there's a few millibars difference between previous runs (sub-990mb in earlier interpretations). 12z NAM @ hour 54: 
nam_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.44K )
Number of downloads: 324-hour snowfall @ hour 69:
USA_ASNOW24_sfc_069.gif ( 22.61K )
Number of downloads: 7 |
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Apr 21 2012, 10:59 AM
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#28
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Apr 21 2012, 11:36 AM) For once I want to be in the dry slot, snow this late is crazy Come on it cant even snow in DECEMBER!!!It's more than a little aggravating because this same upper level setup in the winter months would likely have produced an intense snowstorm but we couldn't manage to get such a favourable set of conditions back then 
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Apr 21 2012, 11:10 AM
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#29
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 980 Joined: 19-October 10 From: Hamilton, Ontario Member No.: 24,142 |
QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 21 2012, 11:40 AM) Warmer air being drawn into the eastern side of the storm seems as if it will deliver more in the way of rain for sections of E ON as things look now. 15 cm of snow here? I will never question the NAM again if this verifies.
In terms of minimum central pressure there's a few millibars difference between previous runs (sub-990mb in earlier interpretations). 12z NAM @ hour 54:
nam_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.44K )
Number of downloads: 324-hour snowfall @ hour 69:
USA_ASNOW24_sfc_069.gif ( 22.61K )
Number of downloads: 7 |
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Apr 21 2012, 11:36 AM
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#30
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
QUOTE(an uncanny otter @ Apr 21 2012, 12:10 PM) 15 cm of snow here? I will never question the NAM again if this verifies. As you wisely said in your post last night, we should be cautious about how much will actually be able to accumulate (especially so late in the season) and also whether the models will change their tune at the last moment as they have multiple times over the past months. 12z GFS @ hour 60:
gfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 62.4K )
Number of downloads: 148-hour snowfall @ hour 90:
USA_ASNOW48_sfc_090.gif ( 23.15K )
Number of downloads: 5 |
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Apr 21 2012, 12:01 PM
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#31
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 508 Joined: 30-January 09 From: south of Ottawa, Ontario Member No.: 17,244 |
It's going to be an interesting three days. All the models are showing 'something' significant, but little is being said on the radio forecasts.
Dry-slotted or not, we'll get rain and probably plenty of it. No complaints. 
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Apr 21 2012, 12:32 PM
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#32
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 68 Joined: 17-December 08 Member No.: 16,531 |
QUOTE(EOsnowmom @ Apr 21 2012, 01:01 PM) It's going to be an interesting three days. All the models are showing 'something' significant, but little is being said on the radio forecasts. Dry-slotted or not, we'll get rain and probably plenty of it. No complaints. As you said nobody really seems to be talked about this possiblity, If that name Verifies(not Likely) but if it does a lot most people are going to be caught way off guard. Im going to be covering as much of my plants as possible, not because of the temps but because of the weight of the snow should it come. It it does I have a few trees I would be ok losing. |
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Apr 21 2012, 01:35 PM
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#33
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
Accuweather's current map and article on the storm.
300x200_04211623_page_2.jpg ( 18.5K )
Number of downloads: 0http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...wstorm-on/64316 HPC composite 4-panel map:
day3_composite.gif ( 39.85K )
Number of downloads: 412z ECMWF @ hour 48:
f48.gif ( 96.22K )
Number of downloads: 0
12zeuro850mbTSLPUS048.gif ( 72.08K )
Number of downloads: 0Hour 72:
f72.gif ( 97.88K )
Number of downloads: 0
12zeuro850mbTSLPUS072.gif ( 70.73K )
Number of downloads: 0 |
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Apr 21 2012, 02:31 PM
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#34
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
The features involved are on the playing field currently. My take is that #1 will sink southeastwards and help to carve the trough out, becoming involved with #2 as it is swept up along the east coast of the USA and resulting in an intensifying storm that moves into E ON and S QUE. The subsequent storm then lingers over Quebec into next week and results in a somewhat prolonged period of cool and unsettled weather. Where exactly snow may fall and be able to accumulate is still up for grabs but more model info through tomorrow will help to iron out the details.
sat1.jpg ( 253.14K )
Number of downloads: 1 |
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Apr 21 2012, 02:43 PM
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#35
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 Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 253 Joined: 23-January 08 From: Mactier/Parry Sound Member No.: 12,906 |
QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 21 2012, 03:31 PM) The features involved are on the playing field currently. My take is that #1 will sink southeastwards and help to carve the trough out, becoming involved with #2 as it is swept up along the east coast of the USA and resulting in an intensifying storm that moves into E ON and S QUE. The subsequent storm then lingers over Quebec into next week and results in a somewhat prolonged period of cool and unsettled weather. Where exactly snow may fall and be able to accumulate is still up for grabs but more model info through tomorrow will help to iron out the details. Best way spending a Saturday afternoon,watching hockey,drinking beer and watching bigmt and others on this forum giving great updates. |
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Apr 21 2012, 02:48 PM
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#36
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 828 Joined: 12-September 08 From: SW BC, Canada Member No.: 15,716 |
QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Apr 21 2012, 08:36 AM) For once I want to be in the dry slot, snow this late is crazy Come on it cant even snow in DECEMBER!!!Snowed for me in November.
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Apr 21 2012, 03:07 PM
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#37
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 449 Joined: 10-February 08 From: Beeton (near Alliston), Studying in Halifax Member No.: 13,571 |
Its sad to think this could be my biggest snowfall of the year. This winter i haven't had a snowfall greater then 15 cm! My snowblower and shovel wasn't touched at all this winter. This winter has been too weird! Last year we had over 100cm in one day and this year i doubt we've reached that for the winter's total!
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Apr 21 2012, 04:10 PM
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#38
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
18z NAM @ hour 57:
nam_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 62.76K )
Number of downloads: 224-hour snowfall @ hour 63:
USA_ASNOW24_sfc_063.gif ( 22.74K )
Number of downloads: 4Updated HPC 4-panel maps (4, 8, 12 inch snow and ice probability) for days 2 and 3:
day2_composite.gif ( 39.37K )
Number of downloads: 7
day3_composite.gif ( 41.16K )
Number of downloads: 3 |
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Apr 21 2012, 05:10 PM
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#39
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 5,846 Joined: 29-September 10 From: Ottawa Member No.: 23,784 |
Brett's Twitter account has sprung to life within the last hour.
http://twitter.com/#!/BrettAWX QUOTE Western PA snowstorm Mon. nt/Tue...Accumulating snow also late Mon/Tue for parts Ontario, including GTA Right now....thinking any snow that falls during Mon. aft. in GTA just melts, but then accumulates after dark. Leaning toward 5-10 cm in an around GTA. Tough call this time of year...have to consider snowfall rate, ground tmp., time of day etc.... 18z GFS @ hour 57:
gfs_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 64.06K )
Number of downloads: 348-hour snowfall @ hour 78:
USA_ASNOW48_sfc_078.gif ( 23.12K )
Number of downloads: 2 |
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Apr 21 2012, 05:21 PM
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#40
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 763 Joined: 15-February 09 From: Toronto Member No.: 17,593 |
Got to love that dreaded donut hole around the GTA lol
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