Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

9 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> April 23rd Eastern Canada Storm, Last Minute Forecasts and OBS
winter48
post Apr 21 2012, 07:39 AM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,111
Joined: 11-October 10
From: Burlington
Member No.: 24,046





QUOTE(Ryan45 @ Apr 21 2012, 07:01 AM) *
Lol go figure eh??? La nina all winter and we get squat... it turns to el nino last week and we get a snowstorm... laugh.gif

No kidding eh???? What irony it would be if we actually did get accumulating snow out of this!!!! ohmy.gif blink.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Apr 21 2012, 08:35 AM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,691
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





Technically speaking we haven't entered an El Nino yet. The La Nina is ending and transitioning to ENSO-neutral conditions with expectations of a weak-to-moderate El Nino sometime later in the year based on current trends and long-range models.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
travis3000
post Apr 21 2012, 08:39 AM
Post #23




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,839
Joined: 21-January 08
From: Alliston,Ontario
Member No.: 12,822





Models show the big snows to the south of Lake Erie and Ontario. We look to get about 3-8cm of wet slushy snow out of this. That's my take.


--------------------
Track winter storms with expert analysis on either one of my two blogs:

http://scglweather.blogspot.com/

Exclusive Southern Ontario Weather Blog

Travis
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
EOsnowmom
post Apr 21 2012, 08:49 AM
Post #24




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 625
Joined: 30-January 09
From: south of Ottawa, Ontario
Member No.: 17,244





NOOOOOO! Henry has dry-slotted me! No fair! Unbelievable.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
TheFrenchman
post Apr 21 2012, 10:25 AM
Post #25




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 137
Joined: 4-December 09
Member No.: 19,969





Is it just me or the storm looks weaker than a few days ago ?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
JJ Snowlover
post Apr 21 2012, 10:36 AM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,878
Joined: 23-November 10
From: Ottawa, Ontario
Member No.: 24,422





QUOTE(EOsnowmom @ Apr 21 2012, 08:49 AM) *
NOOOOOO! Henry has dry-slotted me! No fair! Unbelievable.

For once I want to be in the dry slot, snow this late is crazy ohmy.gif Come on it cant even snow in DECEMBER!!!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Apr 21 2012, 10:40 AM
Post #27




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,691
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





QUOTE(EOsnowmom @ Apr 21 2012, 09:49 AM) *
NOOOOOO! Henry has dry-slotted me! No fair! Unbelievable.


Warmer air being drawn into the eastern side of the storm seems as if it will deliver more in the way of rain for sections of E ON as things look now.

QUOTE(TheFrenchman @ Apr 21 2012, 11:25 AM) *
Is it just me or the storm looks weaker than a few days ago ?


In terms of minimum central pressure there's a few millibars difference between previous runs (sub-990mb in earlier interpretations).

12z NAM @ hour 54:

Attached File  nam_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.44K ) Number of downloads: 3


24-hour snowfall @ hour 69:

Attached File  USA_ASNOW24_sfc_069.gif ( 22.61K ) Number of downloads: 7
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Apr 21 2012, 10:59 AM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,691
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Apr 21 2012, 11:36 AM) *
For once I want to be in the dry slot, snow this late is crazy ohmy.gif Come on it cant even snow in DECEMBER!!!


It's more than a little aggravating because this same upper level setup in the winter months would likely have produced an intense snowstorm but we couldn't manage to get such a favourable set of conditions back then sad.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
an uncanny otter
post Apr 21 2012, 11:10 AM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,001
Joined: 19-October 10
From: Hamilton, Ontario
Member No.: 24,142





QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 21 2012, 11:40 AM) *
Warmer air being drawn into the eastern side of the storm seems as if it will deliver more in the way of rain for sections of E ON as things look now.
In terms of minimum central pressure there's a few millibars difference between previous runs (sub-990mb in earlier interpretations).

12z NAM @ hour 54:

Attached File  nam_namer_054_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 60.44K ) Number of downloads: 3


24-hour snowfall @ hour 69:

Attached File  USA_ASNOW24_sfc_069.gif ( 22.61K ) Number of downloads: 7
15 cm of snow here? I will never question the NAM again if this verifies.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Apr 21 2012, 11:36 AM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,691
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





QUOTE(an uncanny otter @ Apr 21 2012, 12:10 PM) *
15 cm of snow here? I will never question the NAM again if this verifies.


As you wisely said in your post last night, we should be cautious about how much will actually be able to accumulate (especially so late in the season) and also whether the models will change their tune at the last moment as they have multiple times over the past months.

12z GFS @ hour 60:

Attached File  gfs_namer_060_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 62.4K ) Number of downloads: 1


48-hour snowfall @ hour 90:

Attached File  USA_ASNOW48_sfc_090.gif ( 23.15K ) Number of downloads: 5
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
EOsnowmom
post Apr 21 2012, 12:01 PM
Post #31




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 625
Joined: 30-January 09
From: south of Ottawa, Ontario
Member No.: 17,244





It's going to be an interesting three days. All the models are showing 'something' significant, but little is being said on the radio forecasts.

Dry-slotted or not, we'll get rain and probably plenty of it. No complaints. smile.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
yhm_hamilton
post Apr 21 2012, 12:32 PM
Post #32




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 109
Joined: 17-December 08
Member No.: 16,531





QUOTE(EOsnowmom @ Apr 21 2012, 01:01 PM) *
It's going to be an interesting three days. All the models are showing 'something' significant, but little is being said on the radio forecasts.

Dry-slotted or not, we'll get rain and probably plenty of it. No complaints. smile.gif



As you said nobody really seems to be talked about this possiblity, If that name Verifies(not Likely) but if it does a lot most people are going to be caught way off guard. Im going to be covering as much of my plants as possible, not because of the temps but because of the weight of the snow should it come. It it does I have a few trees I would be ok losing.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Apr 21 2012, 01:35 PM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,691
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





Accuweather's current map and article on the storm.

Attached File  300x200_04211623_page_2.jpg ( 18.5K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-news...wstorm-on/64316

HPC composite 4-panel map:

Attached File  day3_composite.gif ( 39.85K ) Number of downloads: 4


12z ECMWF @ hour 48:

Attached File  f48.gif ( 96.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  12zeuro850mbTSLPUS048.gif ( 72.08K ) Number of downloads: 0


Hour 72:

Attached File  f72.gif ( 97.88K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  12zeuro850mbTSLPUS072.gif ( 70.73K ) Number of downloads: 0
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Apr 21 2012, 02:31 PM
Post #34




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,691
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





The features involved are on the playing field currently. My take is that #1 will sink southeastwards and help to carve the trough out, becoming involved with #2 as it is swept up along the east coast of the USA and resulting in an intensifying storm that moves into E ON and S QUE. The subsequent storm then lingers over Quebec into next week and results in a somewhat prolonged period of cool and unsettled weather. Where exactly snow may fall and be able to accumulate is still up for grabs but more model info through tomorrow will help to iron out the details.

Attached File  sat1.jpg ( 253.14K ) Number of downloads: 1
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Canuk
post Apr 21 2012, 02:43 PM
Post #35




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 287
Joined: 23-January 08
From: Mactier/Parry Sound
Member No.: 12,906





QUOTE(bigmt @ Apr 21 2012, 03:31 PM) *
The features involved are on the playing field currently. My take is that #1 will sink southeastwards and help to carve the trough out, becoming involved with #2 as it is swept up along the east coast of the USA and resulting in an intensifying storm that moves into E ON and S QUE. The subsequent storm then lingers over Quebec into next week and results in a somewhat prolonged period of cool and unsettled weather. Where exactly snow may fall and be able to accumulate is still up for grabs but more model info through tomorrow will help to iron out the details.


Best way spending a Saturday afternoon,watching hockey,drinking beer and watching bigmt and others on this forum giving great updates.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stuffradio
post Apr 21 2012, 02:48 PM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 1,064
Joined: 12-September 08
From: SW BC, Canada
Member No.: 15,716





QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Apr 21 2012, 08:36 AM) *
For once I want to be in the dry slot, snow this late is crazy ohmy.gif Come on it cant even snow in DECEMBER!!!

Snowed for me in November. smile.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
stormchaser22
post Apr 21 2012, 03:07 PM
Post #37




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 466
Joined: 10-February 08
From: Beeton (near Alliston), Studying in Halifax
Member No.: 13,571





Its sad to think this could be my biggest snowfall of the year. This winter i haven't had a snowfall greater then 15 cm! My snowblower and shovel wasn't touched at all this winter. This winter has been too weird! Last year we had over 100cm in one day and this year i doubt we've reached that for the winter's total!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Apr 21 2012, 04:10 PM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,691
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





18z NAM @ hour 57:

Attached File  nam_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 62.76K ) Number of downloads: 2


24-hour snowfall @ hour 63:

Attached File  USA_ASNOW24_sfc_063.gif ( 22.74K ) Number of downloads: 4


Updated HPC 4-panel maps (4, 8, 12 inch snow and ice probability) for days 2 and 3:

Attached File  day2_composite.gif ( 39.37K ) Number of downloads: 7


Attached File  day3_composite.gif ( 41.16K ) Number of downloads: 3
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
bigmt
post Apr 21 2012, 05:10 PM
Post #39




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 10,691
Joined: 29-September 10
From: Ottawa
Member No.: 23,784





Brett's Twitter account has sprung to life within the last hour.

http://twitter.com/#!/BrettAWX

QUOTE
Western PA snowstorm Mon. nt/Tue...Accumulating snow also late Mon/Tue for parts Ontario, including GTA

Right now....thinking any snow that falls during Mon. aft. in GTA just melts, but then accumulates after dark.

Leaning toward 5-10 cm in an around GTA. Tough call this time of year...have to consider snowfall rate, ground tmp., time of day etc....


18z GFS @ hour 57:

Attached File  gfs_namer_057_850_temp_mslp_precip.gif ( 64.06K ) Number of downloads: 3


48-hour snowfall @ hour 78:

Attached File  USA_ASNOW48_sfc_078.gif ( 23.12K ) Number of downloads: 2
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
weatherman 23
post Apr 21 2012, 05:21 PM
Post #40




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 886
Joined: 15-February 09
From: Toronto
Member No.: 17,593





Got to love that dreaded donut hole around the GTA lol rolleyes.gif
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

9 Pages V  < 1 2 3 4 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 31st October 2014 - 04:08 AM