April 22-23, GL/MidAtl/NE/ NorEaster OBS, Post Last Minute Forecast and OBS Options

[NorEaster07]

Moisture feeding off Atlantic into North Caronlina as she spins and makes the move.

I added Great Lakes to this OBS. This thread is not for the precip associated with the cold front. Use this for that.

Current Radar


There she is down there.



HPC Tracks




This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 21 2012, 08:22 PM

[jdrenken]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CLEVELAND OH
813 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
A COLD FRONT ALONG THE APPALACHIANS WILL BECOME NEARLY STATIONARY.
LOW PRESSURE WILL DEVELOP OVER THE SOUTHEAST STATES AND MOVE NORTH
ALONG THE STALLED FRONT SUNDAY INTO MONDAY AND DEEPEN. THE LOW
WILL SLOW AND DRIFT ACROSS NEW YORK STATE INTO ONTARIO ON
TUESDAY...THEN PULL AWAY BY THE MIDDLE OF THE WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
HAVE ADJUSTED THE POP/WEATHER FORECAST FOR TONIGHT ACROSS EXTREME
NE OH/NW PA. THE SHOWERS HAVE EXITED EAST OF THE FORECAST AREA
ALTHOUGH CANNOT RULE OUT A DRIZZLE DROP FROM AROUND OHIO ROUTE 11
EAST ACROSS INLAND NW PA. THE LOW CLOUDS ERODED SOME ACROSS NW
OHIO DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING BUT I DOUBT THERE
WILL BE MUCH MORE IN THE WAY OF CLEARING WITH THE NORTH FLOW OFF
THE LAKE TONIGHT AND THE DEEPENING TROUGH ALOFT. WILL REMOVE THE
MENTION OF FROST FOR MOST OF NE OH/NW PA DUE TO THE CLOUDS AND
BREEZE. ADJUSTED THE HOURLY TEMPERATURES TO SHOW THE DIURNAL DROP
ACROSS NW OHIO THIS EVENING WITH TEMPERATURES NEARLY STEADY IN THE
UPPER 30S AND LOWER 40S ELSEWHERE.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH TUESDAY NIGHT/...
NAM AND GFS COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT WITH LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM
THAT WILL TRACK ALONG THE APPALACHIAN CHAIN ON MONDAY. EXPECT LOW
TO REACH CENTRAL PA WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON...AND TRACK ACROSS LAKE
ONTARIO BY MIDNIGHT LOCAL TUESDAY MORNING. POTENTIAL FOR
ACCUMULATING SNOW SUNDAY NIGHT...BUT BETTER CHANCE MONDAY NIGHT.
BIG QUESTION CONTINUES TO BE HOW MUCH SNOW SPREADS WEST ACROSS THE
AREA. NAM IS CONTINUE TO BE MORE AGGRESSIVE IN DUMPING SNOW BACK
ACROSS NWRN PA WITH 10 INCHES IN FAR EASTERN ERIE AND CRAWFORD
COUNTIES BY TUESDAY MORNING WHILE THE GFS IS CLOSER TO 3 INCHES.
FOR NOW WILL REMAIN WITH THE GFS OUTLOOK. MONDAY STILL IN DOUBT AS
TO HOW MUCH OF THE PRECIP WILL FALL AS SNOW VICE RAIN. LOWERED HIGH
TEMPS FOR MONDAY BUT EXPECT PRECIP TO GO BACK TO MOSTLY RAIN DURING
THE DAY ON MONDAY. EXPECT HEAVIEST SNOW MONDAY NIGHT. DEBATED
ABOUT A WATCH BUT NOT CONFIDENT ENOUGH ON EXACT TRACK AND TIMING OF
LOW TO ISSUE A WATCH 5 PERIODS OUT.

[jdrenken]

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
821 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

.SYNOPSIS...
COLDER AND DRIER AIR WILL MOVE INTO THE REGION OVERNIGHT. A STORM SYSTEM
WILL MOVE NORTH TOWARD THE REGION LATER SUNDAY WITH RAIN THAT WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW AND INCREASE IN INTENSITY THROUGH MONDAY MORNING.
TEMPERATURES WILL MODERATE BY MID-WEEK.

&&

.NEAR TERM /UNTIL 6 AM SUNDAY MORNING/...
ONLY A BIT OF DRIZZLE LEFT ACROSS THE SOUTHEAST RIDGES OTHERWISE
CHILLY WITH CLOUDS REMAINING OVERNIGHT. NORTHERLY LOW LEVEL FLOW
WILL CONTINUE TO ADVECT SIGNIFICANTLY COLDER AIR INTO THE CWA.
TEMPERATURES AT 850 MB WILL FALL TO ABOUT -2C AT KPIT BY MORNING.
WITH CLOUDS HOLDING IN OVERNIGHT SHOULD NOT BE A FREEZE OR FROST.

&&

.SHORT TERM /6 AM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
WHILE SIGNIFICANT COLD AIR ADVECTION WILL BE CONTINUING IN THE
LOW LEVELS THROUGH SUNDAY EVENING...THE REAL COLD KICK STARTS UP
OVERNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT. CONSENSUS 850 MB TEMPERATURES CRATER TO -5
TO -6C ON THE NAM/GFS/ECMWF/GEM AT THE SAME TIME A STRONGLY
COUPLED AND FAVORABLY CURVED DIVERGENT UPPER JET STREAK PATTERN
STREAKS NORTHWARD TOWARD WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA. AT THE SAME
TIME...THE 850 MB LOW TRACKS GENERALLY TO THE EAST OF THE
CWA...YIELDING NORTH-NORTHEASTERLY FLOW AT 850 MB TOPPING 65 KTS
PER THE NAM AND WELL IN EXCESS OF 50 KTS PER THE GFS. THE NOSE OF
THIS LOW-LEVEL JET- IKE FLOW POINTS SQUARELY AT THE PITTSBURGH
METRO AREA PER THE NAM...AND JUST TO THE EAST PER THE GFS. THE
COMBINATION OF THOSE TWO FACTORS YIELDS AN IMPRESSIVE SWATH OF
NEGATIVE OMEGAS PER BOTH MODELS ACROSS WESTERN PENNSYLVANIA FOR IN
EXCESS OF 18 HOURS FROM SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH MONDAY...ENOUGH THAT
DYNAMICAL COOLING SEEMS ALL BUT A FOREGONE CONCLUSION. BUFKIT
SOUNDINGS SUPPORT THIS CONCLUSION AND YIELD ALMOST NO DIURNAL
TEMPERATURE RISES ON MONDAY AFTER TEMPERATURES FALL NEAR FREEZING
SUNDAY NIGHT. ALL IN ALL...IT WOULD SEEM THAT IN THE AREA OF THE
STRONGEST OMEGAS...SNOW WILL BE THE DOMINANT PRECIPITATION TYPE
THROUGHOUT THE EVENT.

WHILE THE SYNOPTIC SETUP IS RATHER IMPRESSIVE...THE SMALLER SCALE
NUTS AND BOLTS GIVE A SOMEWHAT BLURRIER PICTURE. ICE MICROPHYSICS
DO NOT REALLY SUPPORT A PARTICULARLY HIGH RATIO EVENT. THE
DENDRITIC GROWTH LAYER OF -12 TO -20C IS BARELY SATURATED...AND
THROUGHOUT THE TIME OF THE STRONGEST ASCENT...THE NEGATIVE OMEGA
BULLS EYE IS GENERALLY LOCATED BELOW THE -12 TO -20C LAYER.
COMBINING THIS WITH A BOUNDARY LAYER PROFILE THAT IS RATHER
MARGINAL AND GENERALLY WITHIN 1C OF FREEZING FOR ALMOST THE ENTIRE
DEPTH OF THE MIXED LAYER MAKES FOR A FAIRLY TENUOUS SNOWFALL
FORECAST. HOWEVER...FAIRLY DECENT FLOW DEFORMATION IN THE 850-700
MB LAYER COUPLED WITH STRONG FRONTOGENETICAL FORCING AS WELL AS
SOME EPV REDUCTION IN THE UPWARD BRANCH OF THE FRONTOGENETICAL
CIRCULATION ON THE TROWAL PERIPHERY YIELDS VERY HIGH CONFIDENCE IN
QPF VALUES IN EXCESS...AND POSSIBLY WELL IN EXCESS...OF 0.4
INCHES IN THE AREA OF STRONGEST LIFT. AS A RESULT...EVEN WITH
UNIMPRESSIVE RATIOS AND A MARGINAL BOUNDARY LAYER...PRECIPITATION
RATES SHOULD BE IMPRESSIVE ENOUGH TO ALLOW SNOW TO PILE UP. EVEN
USING RATIOS OF 7-8:1 IN THE RIDGES...4-5:1 AROUND PITTSBURGH...AND
MUCH LOWER THAN THAT IN POINTS TO THE SOUTH AND WEST...AT LEAST
SOME SNOW ACCUMULATION IS LIKELY ON A WIDESPREAD BASIS. IN
FACT...HEAVY SNOW ACCUMULATION IS POSSIBLE GENERALLY IN THE RIDGES
AND FROM PITTSBURGH NORTHEASTWARD WHERE THE CONFLUENCE OF
LIFT...COLDER AIR...AND A LONGER DURATION WILL MAKE RATIOS A BIT
HIGHER. ALL IN ALL...QPF WILL DRIVE THE HIGH SNOW
ACCUMULATIONS...RATHER THAN THE RATIOS. STORM TOTAL QPF VALUES IN
THE AFOREMENTIONED SETUP STRADDLE 2 INCHES IN THE AREAS OF BEST
LIFT...WHICH EVEN WITH THE UNIMPRESSIVE RATIOS STILL RESULT IN 6
OR MORE INCHES OF SNOW. AS A RESULT...WINTER STORM WATCHES WERE
POSTED FOR THE RIDGES AND ALL AREAS NORTH AND EAST OF PITTSBURGH.
FUTURE SHIFTS WILL LIKELY NEED TO REFINE THE BEST SNOW/QPF
AXIS...HOWEVER THE MODEL CONSENSUS WAS STRONG ENOUGH FOR THE PAST
THREE CYCLES SUCH THAT CONFIDENCE HAS GROWN TO GREATER THAN 50
PERCENT THAT A SIGNIFICANT SNOWFALL IS POSSIBLE DURING THE SUNDAY
NIGHT INTO MONDAY NIGHT TIME FRAME. FRIES

[NorEaster07]

Precip Dots from From the NAM 18z for Buffalo and Pittsburgh.

1.43 & 1.60 qpf of snow pretty impressive for end of April. Gonna be heavy stuff. (maybe 5 or 6:1?)




This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 21 2012, 08:43 PM

[NorEaster07]

Last one. Had a long day. Maybe longer night tomorrow.

Saved WRF Future Radar Loop.

[STEVE392]

was watching a pod cast on youtube from someone who used to post on here. Saying 6" are possible for jersey coast and northward. Gusts of 60mph + are possible if not definite. Also made state about if you were hit hard with Irene, you're getting it again.

[bradjl2009]

Precip Dots from From the NAM 18z for Buffalo and Pittsburgh.

1.43 & 1.60 qpf of snow pretty impressive for end of April. Gonna be heavy stuff. (maybe 5 or 6:1?)

This is unreal. I hope my power doesn't go out.

[NYCSuburbs]

was watching a pod cast on youtube from someone who used to post on here. Saying 6" are possible for jersey coast and northward. Gusts of 60mph + are possible if not definite. Also made state about if you were hit hard with Irene, you're getting it again.

6" near Jersey... 60+ mph gusts definite... getting hit hard with Irene and again... sounds like an obvious exaggeration.

EDIT: A handful of isolated 60+ mph gusts would not surprise me given the tight pressure gradient and heavy rain. However, this definitely doesn't match up to March 2010 in terms of wind gusts when widespread 55-65+ mph gusts were observed.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 21 2012, 09:31 PM

[snowrawrsnow]

I just noticed I'm under a WSW.

What.

What even, mother nature.
What.

URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE PITTSBURGH PA
945 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

...LATE-SEASON HEAVY AND WET SNOWFALL TO IMPACT AREA...

.STRONG LOW PRESSURE IS FORECAST TO MOVE NORTHWARD THROUGH
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA BRINGING RAIN LATER SUNDAY THAT WILL
CHANGE TO SNOW ON SUNDAY NIGHT AND BECOME HEAVY AT TIMES ESPECIALLY
MONDAY MORNING. SNOWFALL MAY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION. A
HEAVY...WET ACCUMULATION OF SNOW IS EXPECTED. THIS MAY CAUSE
SIGNIFICANT PROBLEMS WITH THE DOWNING OF TREE LIMBS THAT HAVE
DEVELOPED LEAVES WHICH MAY IN TURN SPAWN POWER OUTAGES. SOME
TRAVEL DIFFICULTIES CAN BE EXPECTED MONDAY MORNING AS WELL.

MDZ001-PAZ007>009-013>016-020>023-073>076-WVZ023-041-220945-
/O.CON.KPBZ.WS.A.0003.120423T0400Z-120424T0400Z/
GARRETT-MERCER-VENANGO-FOREST-LAWRENCE-BUTLER-CLARION-
JEFFERSON PA-BEAVER-ALLEGHENY-ARMSTRONG-INDIANA-WESTMORELAND-
WESTMORELAND RIDGES-FAYETTE-FAYETTE RIDGES-PRESTON-TUCKER-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...OAKLAND MD...GRANTSVILLE...SHARON...
HERMITAGE...GROVE CITY...GREENVILLE...FARRELL...OIL CITY...
FRANKLIN...SUGARCREEK...TIONESTA...NEW CASTLE...ELLWOOD CITY...
BUTLER...ZELIENOPLE...CLARION...PUNXSUTAWNEY...BRO
KVILLE...
REYNOLDSVILLE...BROCKWAY...ALIQUIPPA...BEAVER FALLS...AMBRIDGE...
MONACA...BEAVER...PITTSBURGH METRO AREA...KITTANNING...
FORD CITY...LEECHBURG...FREEPORT...APOLLO...INDIANA...
GREENSBURG...NEW KENSINGTON...JEANNETTE...LATROBE...MONESSEN...
LIGONIER...DONEGAL...NEW FLORENCE...ACME...CHAMPION...UNIONTOWN...
CONNELLSVILLE...POINT MARION...NORMALVILLE...FARMINGTON...
OHIOPYLE...MARKLEYSBURG...KINGWOOD...TERRA ALTA...PARSONS...
DAVIS...THOMAS
945 PM EDT SAT APR 21 2012

...WINTER STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH MONDAY EVENING...

* HAZARD TYPES...HEAVY WET SNOW.

* ACCUMULATIONS...6 INCHES OR MORE ARE POSSIBLE. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS
MAY BE HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON ELEVATION.

* TIMING...RAIN WILL CHANGE TO SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT SUNDAY NIGHT
AND CONTINUE THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT.

* IMPACTS...THE COMBINATION OF STRONG WINDS AND A HEAVY WET SNOW
WILL BRING DOWN TREE LIMBS AND POWER LINES.

* WINDS...NORTHWEST 15 TO 25 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 45 MPH.

* TEMPERATURES...IN THE LOWER 30S.

* VISIBILITIES...MAY BE REDUCED BELOW ONE QUARTER OF A MILE IN
THE HEAVIEST SNOWFALL MONDAY MORNING.

PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS...

A WINTER STORM WATCH MEANS THAT SNOW...SLEET...OR ICE
ACCUMULATION MAY SEVERELY IMPACT TRAVEL. PREPARE FOR WINTER
WEATHER AND MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS VIA THE NATIONAL WEATHER
SERVICE HOMEPAGE NOAA WEATHER RADIO OR OTHER NEWS MEDIA.

&&

$$

It's like this:
Mother Nature: HAHAHAHAHA NO WINTER HAHA.
Me: Godarn it...
Mother Nature: HOW WOULD YOU LIKE 80'S SO ALL YOUR PLANTS CAN GROW AND YOU CAN GET USE TO SUMMER WEATHER?
Me: Okay! Awesome.
Mother nature: LOLOLOL. HERE'S SOME SNOW.

...Nature. The ultimate troll.

This post has been edited by snowrawrsnow: Apr 21 2012, 09:52 PM

[Juniorrr]

I just noticed I'm under a WSW.

What.

What even, mother nature.
What.
It's like this:
Mother Nature: HAHAHAHAHA NO WINTER HAHA.
Me: Godarn it...
Mother Nature: HOW WOULD YOU LIKE 80'S SO ALL YOUR PLANTS CAN GROW AND YOU CAN GET USE TO SUMMER WEATHER?
Me: Okay! Awesome.
Mother nature: LOLOLOL. HERE'S SOME SNOW.

...Nature. The ultimate troll.

Where have ya been

[tdp146]

1550660[/url]']
was watching a pod cast on youtube from someone who used to post on here. Saying 6" are possible for jersey coast and northward. Gusts of 60mph + are possible if not definite. Also made state about if you were hit hard with Irene, you're getting it again.

Who

[NYCSuburbs]

Tiny cell just popped up in northern Manhattan, not too far to my SE:

[albanyweather]

RUC reflectivity is impressive.

[albanyweather]

NE RUC

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[UFASUPERSTORM]

Here is my nws forecast for the begining of next week and its almost may

http://forecast.weather.gov/MapClick.php?C...mp;lon=-77.8579

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[bingobobbo]

The "Winter" of 2011-12 was a series of misses from beginning to end: we received less than one inch from the Oct. 29 storm, followed by almost nothing the rest of the way (except for two small events in January). In October we were too far north and west; for this system, we are about 100 miles too far east. I am now simply rooting for our first colder than average month since March 2011.

[NYCSuburbs]

Didn't have much time to go into small detail, as the elevation part would also make this map more complicated, but I drew an overall map representing the possible snow accumulations. My confidence also isn't as high as it typically would be in a real winter because this is only the third snow map I've made the entire season

[snowrawrsnow]

Didn't have much time to go into small detail, as the elevation part would also make this map more complicated, but I drew an overall map representing the possible snow accumulations. My confidence also isn't as high as it typically would be in a real winter because this is only the third snow map I've made the entire season

That'd be the biggest snowfall I've seen this year. The biggest before IMBY was 5.3"...
It's almost May.

[rochesterdave]

this thing now has an eye?! You have got to be kidding me! I believe it will move even further west. Look out eastern ohio in my opinion. but i'm also gonna keep a close look on it here in WNY ( rochester).
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

[snowrawrsnow]

this thing now has an eye?! You have got to be kidding me! I believe it will move even further west. Look out eastern ohio in my opinion. but i'm also gonna keep a close look on it here in WNY ( rochester).
http://www.goes.noaa.gov/GSSLOOPS/ecwv.html

Is that a true eye, or just an area of dry air that got swallowed up? I'm not good with non-tropical eyes.

I think it's mostly just dry air.

This post has been edited by snowrawrsnow: Apr 22 2012, 01:10 AM