![]() |
![]() ![]() |
![]() |
![]()
Post
#41
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 658 Joined: 18-August 09 From: Perkasie, PA Member No.: 18,959 ![]() |
Looks like the RUC is bombing this thing out faster than the GFS? It has a 989 low off the NC coast, while at about the same time the GFS has it at 996.
http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ruc...p01rucLoop.html http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...p06GFSLoop.html |
|
|
![]()
Post
#42
|
||
![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,967 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
I found a really neat late april storm from the kocin book. Occurred april 19 th 1983. What made this storm super rare is that snow reached all rhe way to the north carolina and virginia shores with 3 to 6 inches and new jersey had from 3 to as high as 12. Ne Pa winners with 20 inches and southern new york as well with 2 feet . Pretty amazing stuff I thought. Very cool. Thanks! My nws snowfall map Very nice. Wow. Question...what's causing this storm to cut back inland near the Delmarva and take a track up in to Western NY, rather then continuing Northward up the coast as normal? I dont see any nearby High pressures in Atlantic so maybe its the 500mb level pattern ?. Maybe a meteo can weigh in more. Edit: Just saw JR's post. Thanks. This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 22 2012, 09:05 AM |
|
|
||
![]()
Post
#43
|
|
![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,709 Joined: 28-January 10 Member No.: 21,166 ![]() |
|
|
|
![]()
Post
#44
|
|
![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 2,709 Joined: 28-January 10 Member No.: 21,166 ![]() |
|
|
|
![]()
Post
#45
|
|
![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,967 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
|
|
|
![]()
Post
#46
|
|
![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 12,446 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 ![]() |
|
|
|
![]()
Post
#47
|
|
![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,967 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
Question...what's causing this storm to cut back inland near the Delmarva and take a track up in to Western NY, rather then continuing Northward up the coast as normal? Jim Cantore and Steve D just answered it on Twitter JC: "strong digging jet on the backside of trough" SD: "it's the position of the trough which goes negative and pulls the storm west like a sling shot" |
|
|
![]()
Post
#48
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 33,603 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 ![]() |
It's occluding. Once the occlusion begins you will see the SLP pull to the NW while the main energy continues plowing on. Stacking of the ULL and SLP is another way of seeing it. It's about time we finally get to observe a classic phase... this is one of the most amplified patterns we've had this entire season. It's also one of the only storms that actually has a negative tilt. This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 22 2012, 09:19 AM |
|
|
![]()
Post
#49
|
|
![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 12,446 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 ![]() |
|
|
|
![]()
Post
#50
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 33,603 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 ![]() |
Looks like the RUC is bombing this thing out faster than the GFS? It has a 989 low off the NC coast, while at about the same time the GFS has it at 996. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ruc...p01rucLoop.html http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...p06GFSLoop.html The RUC looks like it's intensifying this a bit too quickly IMHO. It also seems to have a little too much negative tilt when compared to the rest of the models. |
|
|
![]()
Post
#51
|
|
![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 32,559 Joined: 12-February 10 From: Blue Mtn, N of Hbg, PA Member No.: 21,746 ![]() |
We might have to change the title to this. It wont really be a Nor'Easter since winds are mostly coming from the SouthEast and storm is cutting back in at DelMarva. No need to view this as anything other than a N'oreaster, accd'g to HPC QUOTE SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 340 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012 VALID 12Z SUN APR 22 2012 - 12Z TUE APR 24 2012 ...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST COAST AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM AFFECTS THE AREA... ...SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST... ...RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ELSEWHERE... A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH NEEDED PRECIPITATION FROM FLORIDA TO NEW ENGLAND AS A DEVELOPING NOR'EASTER TRACKS UP THE COAST FROM FLORIDA TO NEW YORK ON SUNDAY AND MONDAY. THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...THE DELMARVA PENINSULA...AND INTO COASTAL PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AS THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHBOUND. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW JERSEY. THERE WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS IN THESE AREAS AS THE SYSTEM MOVES BY...AND MAY RESULT IN TIDES RUNNING HIGHER THAN NORMAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WINTRY SIDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS THE LOW PIVOTS INLAND OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS ARE EXPECTED TO GET ACCUMULATING SNOW BY MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION. http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdspd -------------------- |
|
|
![]()
Post
#52
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 33,603 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 ![]() |
I found a really neat late april storm from the kocin book. Occurred april 19 th 1983. What made this storm super rare is that snow reached all rhe way to the north carolina and virginia shores with 3 to 6 inches and new jersey had from 3 to as high as 12. Ne Pa winners with 20 inches and southern new york as well with 2 feet . Pretty amazing stuff I thought. I just wanted to share . If this is not right thread sorry in advance. So snow can happen even in late april in the coastal plain . Wow... who'd think that in late April coastal Virginia would see snow while Maine sees rain ![]() April 19, 1983 weather maps |
|
|
![]()
Post
#53
|
|
![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 12,446 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 ![]() |
Jim Cantore and Steve D just answered it on Twitter JC: "strong digging jet on the backside of trough" SD: "it's the position of the trough which goes negative and pulls the storm west like a sling shot" Very informative info, Thank You |
|
|
![]()
Post
#54
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: SuperModerator Posts: 39,564 Joined: 26-March 08 From: Columbia, MO Member No.: 14,521 ![]() |
Looks like the RUC is bombing this thing out faster than the GFS? It has a 989 low off the NC coast, while at about the same time the GFS has it at 996. http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ruc...p01rucLoop.html http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...p06GFSLoop.html The HRRR has it about the same as the RUC, but that should be no surprise. ![]() 4 hours later looking at 984mb due South of Cape May. ![]() -------------------- QUOTE For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER! It's a work in progress! Have a question? Look at our FAQ first. The Utility of the Bering Sea and East Asia Rules in Long-Range Forecasting Organicforecasting Blog If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse. |
|
|
![]()
Post
#55
|
|
![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 12,446 Joined: 4-January 10 From: 20 Miles "North East" of Baltimore Member No.: 20,753 ![]() |
@ Laurel Highlands
I just saw on a graphic (may have been from the NWS out of State College) that depicts the 7 Springs and Somerset area flirting with the 15" mark when all is said and done ![]() |
|
|
![]()
Post
#56
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 541 Joined: 11-March 08 From: Cheat Lake, WV Member No.: 14,348 ![]() |
I know this isn't going to happen, but the NAM's prediction for Morgantown
http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/co...m&site=kmgw QUOTE 120423/0700Z 31 32012KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 85| 0| 15
120423/0800Z 32 32013KT 32.4F SNOW 12:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.130 7:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.85 90| 0| 10 120423/0900Z 33 32014KT 32.4F SNOW 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 9:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00 90| 0| 10 120423/1000Z 34 33016KT 32.3F SNOW 13:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.158 10:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.16 100| 0| 0 120423/1100Z 35 32018KT 32.3F SNOW 12:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.169 11:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.33 100| 0| 0 120423/1200Z 36 32017KT 32.1F SNOW 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 11:1| 9.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.47 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120423/1300Z 37 32017KT 32.1F SNOW 11:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.142 11:1| 10.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.62 100| 0| 0 120423/1400Z 38 32017KT 32.1F SNOW 12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129 11:1| 12.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.75 100| 0| 0 120423/1500Z 39 32017KT 32.1F SNOW 14:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107 11:1| 13.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.85 100| 0| 0 120423/1600Z 40 31017KT 32.3F SNOW 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079 12:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.93 100| 0| 0 120423/1700Z 41 30016KT 32.3F SNOW 16:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.078 12:1| 16.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.01 100| 0| 0 120423/1800Z 42 30016KT 32.3F SNOW 17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 12:1| 17.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.07 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120423/1900Z 43 29016KT 32.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058 12:1| 18.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.13 90| 0| 10 120423/2000Z 44 29016KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045 12:1| 18.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.18 88| 0| 12 120423/2100Z 45 28016KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 12:1| 18.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.22 88| 0| 12 120423/2200Z 46 28016KT 32.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 12:1| 18.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.25 90| 0| 10 120423/2300Z 47 28017KT 32.3F SNOW 14:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 12:1| 19.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.28 100| 0| 0 120424/0000Z 48 28016KT 32.1F SNOW 14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 12:1| 19.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.30 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120424/0100Z 49 27017KT 31.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 12:1| 19.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.32 100| 0| 0 120424/0200Z 50 27016KT 31.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 12:1| 20.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.34 100| 0| 0 120424/0300Z 51 27016KT 31.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 12:1| 20.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.36 100| 0| 0 120424/0400Z 52 27016KT 31.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 12:1| 20.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.38 100| 0| 0 120424/0500Z 53 27016KT 32.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 12:1| 20.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.40 100| 0| 0 120424/0600Z 54 26015KT 32.3F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 12:1| 21.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.42 100| 0| 0 ----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+--- 120424/0700Z 55 26015KT 32.4F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 12:1| 21.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.43 90| 0| 10 120424/0800Z 56 26015KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 12:1| 21.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.44 82| 0| 18 120424/0900Z 57 26014KT 32.6F SNOW 16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 12:1| 21.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.45 88| 0| 12 120424/1000Z 58 25012KT 32.6F SNOW 17:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 12:1| 21.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.47 88| 0| 12 120424/1100Z 59 23011KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 12:1| 21.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.49 73| 0| 27 |
|
|
![]()
Post
#57
|
|
![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 20,967 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT Member No.: 18,864 ![]() |
North Carolina Mountains.
If anyone has a list of webcams from around the region, please post. Thanks. ![]() |
|
|
![]()
Post
#58
|
|
![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 821 Joined: 19-January 10 From: SW PA Member No.: 21,000 ![]() |
Exactly, how much snow does that show?
I know this isn't going to happen, but the NAM's prediction for Morgantown http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/co...m&site=kmgw |
|
|
![]()
Post
#59
|
|
![]() Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 821 Joined: 19-January 10 From: SW PA Member No.: 21,000 ![]() |
Can someone please post the 12z Nam snow map (if possible)? I just cannot believe the current forecasts for parts of western/southwestern PA.
|
|
|
![]()
Post
#60
|
|
Rank: F5 Superstorm ![]() ![]() ![]() Group: Member Posts: 33,603 Joined: 29-August 08 Member No.: 15,491 ![]() |
|
|
|
![]() ![]() |
![]() |
Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 26th April 2018 - 08:13 AM |