April 22-23, GL/MidAtl/NE/ NorEaster OBS, Post Last Minute Forecast and OBS Options

[WadeF]

Looks like the RUC is bombing this thing out faster than the GFS? It has a 989 low off the NC coast, while at about the same time the GFS has it at 996.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ruc...p01rucLoop.html

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...p06GFSLoop.html

[NorEaster07]

I found a really neat late april storm from the kocin book. Occurred april 19 th 1983. What made this storm super rare is that snow reached all rhe way to the north carolina and virginia shores with 3 to 6 inches and new jersey had from 3 to as high as 12. Ne Pa winners with 20 inches and southern new york as well with 2 feet . Pretty amazing stuff I thought.

Very cool. Thanks!

My nws snowfall map

Very nice. Wow.

Question...what's causing this storm to cut back inland near the Delmarva and take a track up in to Western NY, rather then continuing Northward up the coast as normal?

I dont see any nearby High pressures in Atlantic so maybe its the 500mb level pattern ?. Maybe a meteo can weigh in more.



Edit: Just saw JR's post. Thanks.

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 22 2012, 09:05 AM

[UFASUPERSTORM]

Nam hour 18,21, and 24

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[UFASUPERSTORM]

Nam hour 27,30, and 33

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[NorEaster07]

Just had 2 Second flashback. October 2011 cold air pushes eastward for perfect timing to create evap cooling and snow here.
Close, but no cigar this time.

Current temps in upper 30s and low 40s where it's forecasted to snow tonight.

[Fire/Rescue]

Thank you

[NorEaster07]

Question...what's causing this storm to cut back inland near the Delmarva and take a track up in to Western NY, rather then continuing Northward up the coast as normal?

Jim Cantore and Steve D just answered it on Twitter

JC: "strong digging jet on the backside of trough"

SD: "it's the position of the trough which goes negative and pulls the storm west like a sling shot"

[NYCSuburbs]

It's occluding. Once the occlusion begins you will see the SLP pull to the NW while the main energy continues plowing on. Stacking of the ULL and SLP is another way of seeing it.

It's about time we finally get to observe a classic phase... this is one of the most amplified patterns we've had this entire season. It's also one of the only storms that actually has a negative tilt.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 22 2012, 09:19 AM

[Fire/Rescue]

It's occluding. Once the occlusion begins you will see the SLP pull to the NW while the main energy continues plowing on. Stacking of the ULL and SLP is another way of seeing it.

Understood...thank you

[NYCSuburbs]

Looks like the RUC is bombing this thing out faster than the GFS? It has a 989 low off the NC coast, while at about the same time the GFS has it at 996.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ruc...p01rucLoop.html

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...p06GFSLoop.html

The RUC looks like it's intensifying this a bit too quickly IMHO. It also seems to have a little too much negative tilt when compared to the rest of the models.

[Undertakerson]

We might have to change the title to this. It wont really be a Nor'Easter since winds are mostly coming from the SouthEast and storm is cutting back in at DelMarva.

No need to view this as anything other than a N'oreaster, accd'g to HPC

SHORT RANGE FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
340 AM EDT SUN APR 22 2012

VALID 12Z SUN APR 22 2012 - 12Z TUE APR 24 2012

...UNSETTLED CONDITIONS FOR THE EAST COAST AS STRONG STORM SYSTEM
AFFECTS THE AREA...

...SUMMER-LIKE CONDITIONS CONTINUE FOR THE DESERT SOUTHWEST...

...RELATIVELY UNEVENTFUL WEATHER ELSEWHERE...


A WIDESPREAD RAINFALL EVENT IS EXPECTED TO BRING MUCH NEEDED
PRECIPITATION FROM FLORIDA TO NEW ENGLAND AS A DEVELOPING
NOR'EASTER TRACKS UP THE COAST FROM FLORIDA TO NEW YORK ON SUNDAY
AND MONDAY.
THE HEAVIEST RAIN IS FORECAST OVER THE EASTERN CAROLINAS...THE
DELMARVA PENINSULA...AND INTO COASTAL PARTS OF THE NORTHEAST AS
THIS SYSTEM MOVES NORTHBOUND. FLOOD WATCHES HAVE ALREADY BEEN
ISSUED FOR MUCH OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND INTO NEW JERSEY.
THERE WILL LIKELY BE GUSTY ONSHORE WINDS IN THESE AREAS AS THE
SYSTEM MOVES BY...AND MAY RESULT IN TIDES RUNNING HIGHER THAN
NORMAL. THERE WILL ALSO BE A WINTRY SIDE TO THIS SYSTEM AS THE
LOW PIVOTS INLAND OVER UPSTATE NEW YORK. THE HIGHER ELEVATIONS OF
THE CENTRAL AND NORTHERN APPALACHIANS ARE EXPECTED TO GET
ACCUMULATING SNOW BY MONDAY NIGHT AS COLDER AIR WRAPS AROUND THE
WESTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONIC CIRCULATION.

http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/discussions/h...php?disc=pmdspd

[NYCSuburbs]

I found a really neat late april storm from the kocin book. Occurred april 19 th 1983. What made this storm super rare is that snow reached all rhe way to the north carolina and virginia shores with 3 to 6 inches and new jersey had from 3 to as high as 12. Ne Pa winners with 20 inches and southern new york as well with 2 feet . Pretty amazing stuff I thought. I just wanted to share . If this is not right thread sorry in advance. So snow can happen even in late april in the coastal plain .

Wow... who'd think that in late April coastal Virginia would see snow while Maine sees rain

April 19, 1983 weather maps

[Fire/Rescue]

Jim Cantore and Steve D just answered it on Twitter

JC: "strong digging jet on the backside of trough"

SD: "it's the position of the trough which goes negative and pulls the storm west like a sling shot"

Very informative info, Thank You

[jdrenken]

Looks like the RUC is bombing this thing out faster than the GFS? It has a 989 low off the NC coast, while at about the same time the GFS has it at 996.

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/ruc...p01rucLoop.html

http://raleighwx.americanwx.com/models/gfs...p06GFSLoop.html

The HRRR has it about the same as the RUC, but that should be no surprise.


4 hours later looking at 984mb due South of Cape May.

[Fire/Rescue]

@ Laurel Highlands

I just saw on a graphic (may have been from the NWS out of State College) that depicts the 7 Springs and Somerset area flirting with the 15" mark when all is said and done

[lfunk11]

I know this isn't going to happen, but the NAM's prediction for Morgantown

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/co...m&site=kmgw

120423/0700Z 31 32012KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.113 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.72 85| 0| 15
120423/0800Z 32 32013KT 32.4F SNOW 12:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.130 7:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.85 90| 0| 10
120423/0900Z 33 32014KT 32.4F SNOW 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 9:1| 3.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.00 90| 0| 10
120423/1000Z 34 33016KT 32.3F SNOW 13:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.158 10:1| 5.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.16 100| 0| 0
120423/1100Z 35 32018KT 32.3F SNOW 12:1| 2.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.169 11:1| 7.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.33 100| 0| 0
120423/1200Z 36 32017KT 32.1F SNOW 12:1| 1.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.148 11:1| 9.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.47 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120423/1300Z 37 32017KT 32.1F SNOW 11:1| 1.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.142 11:1| 10.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.62 100| 0| 0
120423/1400Z 38 32017KT 32.1F SNOW 12:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.129 11:1| 12.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.75 100| 0| 0
120423/1500Z 39 32017KT 32.1F SNOW 14:1| 1.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.107 11:1| 13.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.85 100| 0| 0
120423/1600Z 40 31017KT 32.3F SNOW 17:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.079 12:1| 15.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 1.93 100| 0| 0
120423/1700Z 41 30016KT 32.3F SNOW 16:1| 1.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.078 12:1| 16.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.01 100| 0| 0
120423/1800Z 42 30016KT 32.3F SNOW 17:1| 1.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.065 12:1| 17.6|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.07 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120423/1900Z 43 29016KT 32.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.058 12:1| 18.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.13 90| 0| 10
120423/2000Z 44 29016KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.045 12:1| 18.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.18 88| 0| 12
120423/2100Z 45 28016KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.041 12:1| 18.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.22 88| 0| 12
120423/2200Z 46 28016KT 32.4F SNOW 14:1| 0.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.035 12:1| 18.9|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.25 90| 0| 10
120423/2300Z 47 28017KT 32.3F SNOW 14:1| 0.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.028 12:1| 19.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.28 100| 0| 0
120424/0000Z 48 28016KT 32.1F SNOW 14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 12:1| 19.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.30 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120424/0100Z 49 27017KT 31.9F SNOW 14:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.020 12:1| 19.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.32 100| 0| 0
120424/0200Z 50 27016KT 31.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 12:1| 20.1|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.34 100| 0| 0
120424/0300Z 51 27016KT 31.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 12:1| 20.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.36 100| 0| 0
120424/0400Z 52 27016KT 31.9F SNOW 13:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 12:1| 20.5|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.38 100| 0| 0
120424/0500Z 53 27016KT 32.1F SNOW 13:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.021 12:1| 20.8|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.40 100| 0| 0
120424/0600Z 54 26015KT 32.3F SNOW 12:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.019 12:1| 21.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.42 100| 0| 0
----------------------------------------------+----++-----+-------------++--------------++-------------++-----------+---+---
120424/0700Z 55 26015KT 32.4F SNOW 11:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.015 12:1| 21.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.43 90| 0| 10
120424/0800Z 56 26015KT 32.6F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.011 12:1| 21.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.44 82| 0| 18
120424/0900Z 57 26014KT 32.6F SNOW 16:1| 0.2|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.012 12:1| 21.4|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.45 88| 0| 12
120424/1000Z 58 25012KT 32.6F SNOW 17:1| 0.3|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 12:1| 21.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.47 88| 0| 12
120424/1100Z 59 23011KT 33.0F RASN 0:1| 0.0|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 0.017 12:1| 21.7|| 0.00|| 0.00|| 2.49 73| 0| 27

[NorEaster07]

North Carolina Mountains.

If anyone has a list of webcams from around the region, please post. Thanks.

[UTWeather]

Exactly, how much snow does that show?

I know this isn't going to happen, but the NAM's prediction for Morgantown

http://www.meteor.iastate.edu/~ckarsten/co...m&site=kmgw

[UTWeather]

Can someone please post the 12z Nam snow map (if possible)? I just cannot believe the current forecasts for parts of western/southwestern PA.

[NYCSuburbs]

Can someone please post the 12z Nam snow map (if possible)? I just cannot believe the current forecasts for parts of western/southwestern PA.

NMM future radar: