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> April 26-May 1 Plains/MW/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Slight Risk Forecasts and OBS
WeatherMonger
post Apr 22 2012, 07:39 AM
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SPC mentioning the possibility of a few days of severe mid/late week.

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0322 AM CDT SUN APR 22 2012

VALID 251200Z - 301200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE ARE IN AGREEMENT WITH THE GENERAL
PERSISTENCE OF AN AMPLIFIED PATTERN MUCH OF THE PERIOD...HIGHLIGHTED
BY A SLOW GENERAL EASTWARD PROGRESSION OF AN UPPER TROUGH OVER THE
ROCKIES/TOWARD THE PLAINS FROM MID-WEEK ONWARD /DAYS 4-7/.

INITIALLY FOR DAY 4/WEDNESDAY...AT LEAST SOME SEVERE THREAT MAY
EXIST ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDWEST/OH VALLEY IN ASSOCIATION WITH A
SOUTHEAST MOVING SURFACE LOW/COLD FRONT AND PARENT LOW AMPLITUDE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH. A FEW STRONG TSTMS MAY ALSO BE POSSIBLE FOR
PORTIONS OF SOUTHERN CA AS AN UPPER TROUGH/ASSOCIATED FRONT MOVES
INLAND ON DAY 4/WEDNESDAY.

THEREAFTER...SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD INCREASE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE
PLAINS AS THE UPPER TROUGH APPROACHES THE REGION...ALTHOUGH
INITIALLY LIMITED MOISTURE RETURN AND UNCERTAIN SPECIFIC EVOLUTION
OF THE UPPER TROUGH PRECLUDE ANY 30 PERCENT SEVERE AREAS AT THIS
TIME. NONETHELESS...CURRENT THINKING IS THAT AT LEAST
ISOLATED/POTENTIAL SLIGHT RISK-CALIBER SEVERE THREATS COULD EXIST
DAY 5/THURSDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS/PERHAPS ROCKIES FRONT RANGE...AND INTO DAYS 6-7
FRIDAY/SATURDAY ACROSS THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS POTENTIALLY
INCLUDING PORTIONS OF KS/OK/NORTHWEST TX AND POSSIBLY THE ADJACENT
MO VALLEY
.

..GUYER.. 04/22/2012


This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Apr 24 2012, 05:17 AM
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melissa from ill...
post Apr 22 2012, 10:43 AM
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From Reed Timmer's facebook: Reed Timmer: Meteorologist and Extreme Storm Chaser
Models are coming into agreement on a potentially very active severe weather pattern April 26-28+ across central/southern Plains, beginning in eastern CO/WY on April 26, then possibly KS/OK area thereafter. I'll be doing a free giveaway of weather radios from http://Palcycle.com/ later this afternoon. Stay tuned..


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The Snowman
post Apr 22 2012, 12:54 PM
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Seems possible. Hour 84 on the SREF has a piece of energy shifting into the Southeast.
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Slight Risk Days: 11
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Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
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You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

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The Snowman
post Apr 22 2012, 01:00 PM
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FWIW, big LI values over the Plains at hour 84 of the SREF.
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--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014 Severe Weather Season
Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
High Risk Days: 0


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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ChiWxWatcher
post Apr 22 2012, 04:43 PM
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I have a musical contest on the 28th, and the LOT forecast has showers and thunderstorms as a possibility. Will be a one to watch.


--------------------
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Formerly msweather!
QUOTE
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*Never Accurate Model (NAM)

or

*Even Crazier Model With Foolishness. (ECMWF)

(J/K)

Members I love:
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wxman1952
post Apr 22 2012, 10:46 PM
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I for one am getting tired of the winds here in Michigan. Hope we get back into some milder and more stormy weather.


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WeatherMonger
post Apr 23 2012, 04:26 AM
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QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0359 AM CDT MON APR 23 2012

VALID 261200Z - 011200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS GUIDANCE REMAIN IN AMPLE GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH THE
CONTINUANCE OF A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED PATTERN MUCH OF THE PERIOD.
DEEP CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL WILL GENERALLY BE TIED TO AN EASTWARD
PROGRESSING UPPER TROUGH DAYS 4-6...WITH A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE
TROUGH EXPECTED TO EJECT NORTHEASTWARD FROM THE DESERT SOUTHWEST TO
THE CENTRAL PLAINS/MIDWEST BY DAYS 5/6 FRIDAY/SATURDAY.

IT IS LIKELY THAT AT LEAST SOME SEVERE POTENTIAL SHOULD EXIST ACROSS
PORTIONS OF THE PLAINS TO MO VALLEY/MIDWEST AS THE UPPER TROUGH
APPROACHES THE REGION THE LAST HALF OF THE WEEK. HOWEVER...AN
INITIAL MODEST QUALITY/DEGREE OF MOISTURE RETURN...AND EVENTUAL
POSSIBLE WEAKENING PHASE OF THE UPPER TROUGH OVER THE CENTRAL CONUS
BY THE WEEKEND...PRECLUDE ANY 30 PERCENT SEVERE AREAS AT THIS TIME.

NONETHELESS...CURRENT THINKING BASED ON LATEST GUIDANCE IS THAT AT
LEAST ISOLATED/POSSIBLE SLIGHT RISK-CALIBER SEVERE THREATS COULD
EXIST DAY 4/THURSDAY INTO DAYS 5/6 FRIDAY/SATURDAY. FOR DAY
4/THURSDAY...THIS COULD BE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE SOUTH-CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS/PERHAPS ROCKIES FRONT RANGE...INCLUDING A CORRIDOR
ENCOMPASSING THE TX/OK PANHANDLES INTO EASTERN CO/FAR WESTERN KS.
SUBSEQUENT SEVERE POTENTIAL COULD THEN DEVELOP EASTWARD ACROSS THE
CENTRAL PLAINS/LOWER MO VALLEY INTO DAY 5/FRIDAY...WITH THE
DEGREE/LIKELIHOOD OF DEVELOPMENT ALONG THE DRYLINE MORE UNCERTAIN
WITH SOUTHWARD EXTENT INTO OK/TX. BY DAY 6/SATURDAY...A SEVERE RISK
MAY EXTEND INTO PORTIONS OF THE OH VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY AND
PERHAPS ARKLATEX/MID-SOUTH IN VICINITY OF THE EAST-SOUTHEAST
ADVANCING COLD FRONT...ALTHOUGH SPECIFIC PREDICTABILITY IS MUCH MORE
UNCERTAIN BY THIS TIME FRAME.

..GUYER.. 04/23/2012
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USA Weather
post Apr 23 2012, 06:15 AM
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I have my birthday on the 28th. Maybe Mother Nature will give me a birthday present with this storm system.

This post has been edited by USA Weather: Apr 23 2012, 06:16 AM


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The Snowman
post Apr 23 2012, 04:51 PM
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Not too impressive IMO: Strong cap will be in place (should be broken by 3000 CAPE), jet stream barely latching onto the system to decrease tornadic shearing, and just the overall weak demeanor of the storm.
However, the system is negatively tilted, as seen in the 500mb image below.

Write-up on my blog, for those who care.
Link
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--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014 Severe Weather Season
Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
High Risk Days: 0


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 24 2012, 05:19 AM
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QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0230 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS...

...CO/SOUTHEAST WY FRONT RANGE AND CENTRAL/SOUTHERN HIGH PLAINS...
00Z-BASED MODELS ARE IN RELATIVELY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXPECTED
NORTHEASTWARD-ADVANCEMENT OF A SOUTHERN STREAM SHORTWAVE TROUGH FROM
THE DESERT SOUTHWEST EARLY THURSDAY TO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS BY
THURSDAY EVENING. THIS WILL LEAD TO HIGH PLAINS SURFACE
CYCLOGENESIS/MOISTENING...ALTHOUGH IT DOES SEEM LIKELY THAT
ESPECIALLY 00Z NAM/GFS REMAIN A LITTLE TOO AGGRESSIVE WITH THE
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD EXTENT OF NEAR/ABOVE 60S F SURFACE DEWPOINTS
ACROSS THE CENTRAL PLAINS.

NONETHELESS...SUFFICIENT MOISTENING IN CONJUNCTION WITH UPPER JET
EXIT REGION/AMPLE FORCING FOR ASCENT AND LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE SHOULD
YIELD AT LEAST ISOLATED STRONG/SEVERE TSTM DEVELOPMENT DURING THE
AFTERNOON...INCLUDING SOME SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL. THIS
SEEMS MOST PROBABLE FROM THE NORTHEAST CO/SOUTHEAST WY FRONT RANGE
VICINITY INTO THE CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS. ANTICIPATED STRENGTH OF THE
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER ALOFT PROVIDES UNCERTAINTY REGARDING THE
POTENTIAL FOR MORE ISOLATED DEVELOPMENT ACROSS THE SOUTHERN HIGH
PLAINS AREAS TO THE SOUTH OF THE WNW-ESE ORIENTED FRONTAL ZONE
ACROSS KS.

...OH/TN VALLEYS TO MID-ATLANTIC STATES/CAROLINAS...
UNCERTAINTIES FROM THE DAY 2/WEDNESDAY PERIOD CARRYOVER INTO
THURSDAY...ESPECIALLY REGARDING THE LIKELIHOOD/EXTENT OF EARLY DAY
PRECIPITATION AND THE EFFECTIVE LOCATION OF THE EAST-SOUTHEASTWARD
MOVING COLD FRONT ACROSS THE REGION. EVEN SO...GIVEN A WESTERLY
MOIST/UNSTABLE FEED IN CONJUNCTION WITH MODERATELY STRONG/CYCLONIC
WEST-NORTHWESTERLY FLOW ALOFT...SEVERAL CORRIDORS OF ISOLATED SEVERE
WIND/HAIL MAY OCCUR ACROSS THE REGION ESPECIALLY THURSDAY
AFTERNOON/EARLY EVENING.

...LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY THURSDAY NIGHT...
CURRENT INDICATIONS ARE THAT TSTMS SHOULD EXPAND INTO THE
REGION/DEVELOP ON THE EDGE OF THE CAP THURSDAY NIGHT AS A LOW LEVEL
JET STRENGTHENS. GIVEN THIS SCENARIO...THE PROXIMITY OF STEEP LAPSE
RATES/RESERVOIR OF ELEVATED INSTABILITY SUGGEST SEVERE HAIL WOULD BE
POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST STORMS.

...SOUTHEAST MT/FAR NORTHEAST WY...
A FEW STRONG TSTMS CANNOT BE RULED OUT THURSDAY AFTERNOON/EVENING
ACROSS THE REGION...BUT THE UNCERTAIN DEGREE OF
MOISTENING/DESTABILIZATION PRECLUDES SEVERE PROBABILITIES AT THE DAY
3 JUNCTURE.

..GUYER.. 04/24/2012

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WeatherMonger
post Apr 24 2012, 05:19 AM
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QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0400 AM CDT TUE APR 24 2012

VALID 271200Z - 021200Z

...DISCUSSION...
00Z ECMWF/GEFS/UKMET ARE IN GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH DEPICTIONS
OF A RELATIVELY AMPLIFIED/SOMEWHAT STAGNANT LARGE SCALE PATTERN THIS
WEEKEND INTO EARLY NEXT WEEK. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH AS DISCUSSED IN
THE DAY 3 OUTLOOK IS EXPECTED TO GENERALLY WEAKEN/MINOR OVER THE
MIDWEST BY DAY 4/FRIDAY...WITH CYCLONIC/NEBULOUS UPPER FLOW
OTHERWISE PREVALENT FROM THE ROCKIES TO THE SOUTH-CENTRAL PLAINS
LATE THIS WEEK. NO 30 PERCENT SEVERE AREAS ARE WARRANTED AS NO
PARTICULARLY WIDESPREAD/CONSEQUENTIAL SEVERE RISKS ARE CURRENTLY
ANTICIPATED.

NONETHELESS...AT LEAST ISOLATED/POSSIBLE SEVERE RISKS WILL EXIST
INTO THE WEEKEND. FOR DAY 4/FRIDAY...SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE
POSSIBLE ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE LOWER MO VALLEY/MIDDLE MS VALLEY
NEAR A SURFACE FRONT/REMNANT FRONTAL ZONE...WITH POSSIBLE SEVERE
DEVELOPMENT LESS CERTAIN IN THE PRESENCE OF GREATER CAPPING/NEBULOUS
FORCING FOR ASCENT WITH SOUTH-SOUTHWESTWARD EXTENT ACROSS OK/NORTH
TX IN VICINITY OF A DRYLINE/WEAK FRONT. OTHER STRONG/POSSIBLY SEVERE
TSTMS MIGHT BE POSSIBLE ON DAY 4/FRIDAY ACROSS THE CENTRAL HIGH
PLAINS IN THE PRESENCE OF LOW-LEVEL UPSLOPE FLOW/MODERATE VERTICAL
SHEAR. BY DAY 5/SATURDAY...SOME SEVERE TSTMS MAY BE POSSIBLE ALONG
THE SOUTHEASTWARD ADVANCING FRONT ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK/NORTH TX TO
THE ADJACENT ARKLATEX AND MID-SOUTH REGIONS.

..GUYER.. 04/24/2012
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 01:46 PM
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Added a 30% risk with overlapped hatched area





QUOTE
DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1227 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012

VALID 261200Z - 271200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN HIGH
PLAINS...

...CNTRL/SRN HIGH PLAINS...

WELL DEFINED UPPER LOW OFF THE SRN CA/NRN BAJA COAST...CENTERED NEAR
29N/127W...WILL EJECT INLAND EARLY IN THE DAY2 PERIOD BEFORE LIFTING
NEWD INTO CO/NM BY 27/00Z. THIS FEATURE WILL THEN SHIFT INTO THE
HIGH PLAINS DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD. AS THE TROUGH SHIFTS
ACROSS THE ROCKIES LOW LEVEL FLOW WILL UNDOUBTEDLY RESPOND AND
BECOME DECIDEDLY SELY ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS. WHILE THE LATEST
SHORT RANGE MODELS HAVE STRUGGLED RECENTLY REGARDING THE AGGRESSIVE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE RETURN...IT APPEARS A LEGITIMATE MOISTURE
SURGE WILL SPREAD ACROSS THE SRN PLAINS WARM SECTOR OVER THE NEXT
24-48HR AND 60-65 SFC DEW POINTS MAY BE IN PLACE ACROSS THE ERN
TX/OK PANHANDLE REGION BY PEAK HEATING. TIMING OF THE UPPER TROUGH
WILL FAVOR OVERNIGHT CONVECTION THOUGH STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER HEATING
SHOULD CONTRIBUTE TO DESTABILIZATION WITHIN THE UPSLOPE REGION FROM
THE TX PANHANDLE INTO EXTREME SERN CO. FOR THIS REASON IT APPEARS
SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS WILL BEGIN DEVELOPING AROUND 21-22Z.
FORECAST SOUNDINGS SUGGEST SBCAPE COULD EASILY EXCEED 2000 J/KG
WITHIN A SHEARED ENVIRONMENT THAT WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.
FAVORABLY SHEARED AND BACKED LOW LEVEL FLOW ALSO LENDS CREDENCE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF TORNADOES. HAVE INCREASED THE SEVERE PROBS
ACROSS THE HIGH PLAINS TO ACCOUNT FOR THE LIKELIHOOD OF POTENTIALLY
TORNADIC SUPERCELLS IN ADDITION TO VERY LARGE HAIL. LATE
AFTERNOON/EVENING SUPERCELLS WILL ALSO DEVELOP FARTHER NORTH ACROSS
ERN CO WITHIN STRONGER ZONE OF FORCED ASCENT. THIS ACTIVITY COULD
EASILY SPREAD INTO SWRN NEB/NWRN KS BY MIDNIGHT AS LLJ INCREASES
DURING THE OVERNIGHT PERIOD.

...TN VALLEY TO MIDDLE ATLANTIC...

DIGGING UPPER TROUGH OVER THE OH VALLEY/NEW ENGLAND STATES WILL
ENSURE SFC PRESSURES RISE WEST OF THE APPALACHIANS DURING THE DAY2
PERIOD. THIS IN TURN WILL FORCE A COLD FRONT ACROSS WV/KY INTO TN
DURING THE LATE AFTERNOON HOURS. EARLY IN THE PERIOD IT APPEARS
STRONG LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION WILL BE PARTLY RESPONSIBLE FOR
THUNDERSTORM CLUSTERS THAT WILL SPREAD ACROSS PORTIONS OF THE MIDDLE
ATLANTIC REGION AHEAD OF SFC LOW. THIS EARLY ACTIVITY IS NOT
EXPECTED TO BE PARTICULARLY SEVERE AS INSTABILITY WILL BE SOMEWHAT
LACKING. HOWEVER...THERE IS SOME CONCERN THAT STRONG BOUNDARY LAYER
HEATING WILL CONTRIBUTE TO SIGNIFICANT INSTABILITY ALONG THE
ADVANCING COLD FRONT. WITH WEAK HEIGHT RISES EXPECTED ALONG THE
TRAILING BOUNDARY IT/S NOT ENTIRELY CLEAR HOW MUCH CONVECTION WILL
EVOLVE IN THE WAKE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED UPPER TROUGH. ADEQUATE
SHEAR WILL BE IN PLACE FOR POTENTIAL STORM ORGANIZATION AND A SLIGHT
RISK MAY BE REQUIRED IN LATER OUTLOOKS TO ACCOUNT FOR ISOLATED
SUPERCELLS. AT THIS TIME WILL MAINTAIN 5% SEVERE PROBS ALONG THE
ADVANCING BOUNDARY...BUT IF IT BECOMES MORE CLEAR THAT STORMS WILL
FORM IN GREATER CONCENTRATION THEN THESE PROBS WILL BE INCREASED TO
ACCOUNT FOR DAMAGING WINDS/HAIL.

..DARROW.. 04/25/2012
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 01:47 PM
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Day 3 has a see text



QUOTE
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK CORR 1
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0241 AM CDT WED APR 25 2012

VALID 271200Z - 281200Z

CORRECTED MINOR WORDING ISSUE

...SYNOPSIS...
MODELS INDICATE THAT THE LARGE-SCALE MID/UPPER FLOW PATTERN WILL
REMAIN BLOCKY THROUGH THIS FORECAST PERIOD...WITH A NUMBER OF
EMBEDDED SMALLER SCALE DEVELOPMENTS REMAINING UNCERTAIN. THIS
INCLUDES THE SUBSEQUENT EVOLUTION OF A HIGH CENTER...WHICH IS
EXPECTED TO DEVELOP OVER THE CENTRAL CANADIAN PROVINCES BY 12Z
FRIDAY...THE SOUTHERN PORTION OF A SPLITTING UPPER IMPULSE MIGRATING
INLAND ACROSS THE PACIFIC NORTHWEST AND NORTHERN INTERMOUNTAIN
REGION...AND ANOTHER LOW EMERGING FROM THE LOWER LATITUDE PACIFIC.
AFTER INITIALLY MAINTAINING ITS CYCLONIC CIRCULATION...MODELS ARE
SUGGESTIVE THAT THE SOUTHERN FEATURE MAY ELONGATE OVER THE MID
MISSOURI VALLEY FRIDAY...TO THE SOUTH OF THE HIGH...WHILE THE HIGHER
LATITUDE IMPULSE REDEVELOPS INTO THE MORE PROMINENT LOW ACROSS THE
NORTHERN ROCKIES.

SOUTH/EAST OF THE HIGH CENTER...AND WEST OF A BROADENING UPPER
CLOSED LOW OVER SOUTHEAST CANADA AND THE NORTHEASTERN U.S...COLD
SURFACE RIDGING MAY NOSE AS FAR SOUTH AS THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI AND
LOWER OHIO VALLEYS. AT THE SAME TIME...CONTINUED GRADUAL MOISTENING
OF THE BOUNDARY LAYER OVER THE GULF OF MEXICO MAY OCCUR...BUT A
SUBSTANTIVE INLAND RETURN FLOW STILL APPEARS UNLIKELY.

...CENTRAL PLAINS INTO MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY...
GIVEN UNCERTAINTIES ASSOCIATED WITH BOTH THE EVOLVING UPPER PATTERN
AND THE MAGNITUDE OF THE AVAILABLE LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE...
CONTINUATION OF SEVERE POTENTIAL DEVELOPING ON THURSDAY ACROSS THE
CENTRAL HIGH PLAINS REMAINS UNCLEAR...AS A SURFACE WAVE DEVELOPS
EASTWARD ALONG A FRONT INTO THE LOWER PLAINS AND MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI
VALLEY. AT LEAST SOME SIGNAL EXISTS IN THE GUIDANCE FOR A LATE
AFTERNOON ISOLATED SUPERCELL THREAT...AND SUBSEQUENT UPSCALE GROWTH
OF A MESOSCALE CONVECTIVE SYSTEM DURING THE EVENING...SO LOW SEVERE
PROBABILITIES APPEAR WARRANTED. BUT...THERE IS NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE FOR SLIGHT RISK PROBABILITIES AT THE PRESENT TIME.

..KERR.. 04/25/2012
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 01:48 PM
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May need to shorten the dateline, sounds like sporadic chances coming up next week

QUOTE
DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0354 AM CDT WED APR 25 2012

VALID 281200Z - 031200Z

...DISCUSSION...
SHORT WAVE DEVELOPMENTS THROUGH THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD REMAIN
HIGHLY UNCERTAIN. HOWEVER...MEDIUM RANGE MODELS ARE SUGGESTIVE THAT
THE BLOCKY UPPER FLOW PATTERN MAY TRANSITION TO A MORE PROGRESSIVE
ONE...AT LEAST ACROSS THE NORTHERN TIER STATES... WHERE A MORE
DISTINCT AND STRONGER ZONAL BELT OF WESTERLIES MAY EVOLVE DURING THE
EARLY TO MIDDLE PORTION OF NEXT WEEK. HIGHER MOISTURE CONTENT AIR
ALSO APPEARS LIKELY TO RETURN INLAND OFF A RECOVERING GULF OF MEXICO
BOUNDARY LAYER THROUGH MOST AREAS EAST OF THE ROCKIES...INCLUDING
65-70F SURFACE DEW POINTS AS FAR NORTH AS THE EAST CENTRAL
PLAINS/LOWER MISSOURI VALLEY REGION BY NEXT TUESDAY/WEDNESDAY.
INCREASING INSTABILITY WILL YIELD INCREASING CONVECTIVE
POTENTIAL...PROBABLY INCLUDING DAILY SEVERE WEATHER THREATS.
HOWEVER...ANY SIGNAL FOR A REGIONAL TYPE SEVERE WEATHER EVENT
REMAINS LOW...AND GENERALLY CONFINED TO THE LATTER PORTIONS OF THE
PERIOD...WHEN PATTERN PREDICTABILITY IS AT ITS LOWEST.

..KERR.. 04/25/2012
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Burr@Work
post Apr 26 2012, 07:48 PM
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Eye-witness-reported tornado touchdown in Franklin, TN this evening. Nobody hurt.

My sister was within the funnel cloud at a baseball field (there was a little league game on, but they'd just called the game from lightning).

Not sure if this is the right thread to post it in. Will post a picture of a flipped car and police on the scene.

This post has been edited by Burr@Work: Apr 26 2012, 08:25 PM
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Burr@Work
post Apr 26 2012, 07:54 PM
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Image from my mom's cell phone of some tornado damage - flipped SUVs in the parking lot next to the ballfield.


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Burr@Work
post Apr 26 2012, 07:58 PM
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My sister called 911 to report it, and as she was on the phone ("calm down, ma'am") the town's tornado siren went off.

Again, nobody hurt at the ballfield, but I don't know about elsewhere.

My sister said she saw the clouds above circling, as she was looking for her car keys in a downpour of rain, and then suddenly trash cans were being thrown, desbris flying, and then cars in the parking lot flipping over.
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Burr@Work
post Apr 26 2012, 09:24 PM
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Just heard from my sister. Tells me she was interviewed by the Nashville newspaper (The Tennessean). She is amazed nobody was hurt. Several cars flipped in the parking lot where lots of kids were all heading to their cars. Scoreboard knocked over, too.
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Juniorrr
post Apr 26 2012, 10:16 PM
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QUOTE(Burr@Work @ Apr 26 2012, 10:24 PM) *
Just heard from my sister. Tells me she was interviewed by the Nashville newspaper (The Tennessean). She is amazed nobody was hurt. Several cars flipped in the parking lot where lots of kids were all heading to their cars. Scoreboard knocked over, too.

Must have been a scary experience.. glad there are no injuries
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Burr@Work
post Apr 26 2012, 10:40 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Apr 26 2012, 11:16 PM) *
Must have been a scary experience.. glad there are no injuries


Only minor injuries - scratches and such. Parents and kids were apparently thrown to the ground. but nobody was in any of the cars that were picked up and flipped over.

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