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> Apr. 25-26 Southwest (So. Cal) Late Winter Storm, Unusually strong late winter storm could bring heavy rain Wed. night
Beck
post Apr 23 2012, 05:05 PM
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QUOTE(Artisane @ Apr 23 2012, 01:57 PM) *
This summer will be either summer or winter, sometimes a day apart.

This cold PDO is just going to dominate again.

A cold PDO doesn't guarantee a cold summer for us, however.

The PDO was cold in 2009, but that summer was mostly warmer than normal. The PDO was also cold back in 2000, but that summer was very hot for us inland areas.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00" (-0.00")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.00"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00"

Temecula Weather Pages
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Severewx1
post Apr 23 2012, 05:37 PM
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QUOTE(alxz310 @ Apr 23 2012, 12:35 PM) *
What the heck... 12Z GFS only outputs 0.05" of rain, down from .77" in the last run laugh.gif.... OK... looks like an outlier for no


18z has similar outputs unsure.gif

This post has been edited by Severewx1: Apr 23 2012, 05:37 PM
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Jet Developer
post Apr 23 2012, 05:47 PM
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From my office I can see the coastal foothills with areas of brighter sky behind them and there is a lot of beautiful green with yellow flowers. Usually by this time of year the foothills are brown, but not this year with our three-month-late winter.

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Artisane
post Apr 23 2012, 05:54 PM
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QUOTE(Beck @ Apr 23 2012, 03:05 PM) *
A cold PDO doesn't guarantee a cold summer for us, however.

The PDO was cold in 2009, but that summer was mostly warmer than normal. The PDO was also cold back in 2000, but that summer was very hot for us inland areas.

I'm thinking cold on the immediate coast again with clouds/ML pushing in.

Inland areas have huge swings with offshore/onshore flows.
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vb3347
post Apr 23 2012, 07:52 PM
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Enjoyed today's weather for a change, the 86F high felt great coupled with sunshine and a rather strong breeze. That triple-digit heat sure makes you appreciate days like this.

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Artisane
post Apr 23 2012, 07:59 PM
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Temps went from mid 80s to around 60 in about an hour and a half once the wind picked up. If I had a good camera and a nice spot to catch it, I'd record the clouds pouring over the mountains. Winds are over 70mph at the base of the foothills and a timelapse video isn't even needed to see the movement, even at 20 miles away.
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Jet Developer
post Apr 23 2012, 10:02 PM
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How did San Diego manage to make it to 65 degrees when Ramona and Burbank topped it out at 59 degrees?
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Beck
post Apr 23 2012, 10:40 PM
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Now it looks like we may get a lot less rain than originally thought - only up to 0.5" inch predicted here. But these projected totals seem to change every day, so we'll see.....


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00" (-0.00")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.00"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00"

Temecula Weather Pages
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LALEO
post Apr 23 2012, 10:54 PM
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Because this is a Cut off Low, I am not looking too much into the discussions as well as the model runs. These types of systems are notorious for being darn near impossible to get a handle on sometimes.


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2013-2014 Winter Season Totals.

Precipitation Total 5.94" - Last Updated March. 02, 2014

Last Accumulation/Event 3.88" - March. 02 , 2014
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Severewx1
post Apr 23 2012, 11:20 PM
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QUOTE(LALEO @ Apr 23 2012, 10:54 PM) *
Because this is a Cut off Low, I am not looking too much into the discussions as well as the model runs. These types of systems are notorious for being darn near impossible to get a handle on sometimes.


Seriously...model to model variation right now is so extreme. One model shows a trace of rain and the other models shows a good dosing. Your probably better off tracking the storm in the radar on Wednesday!
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idecline
post Apr 24 2012, 02:36 AM
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I think that models are very inconsistant for California forecasting, especially with the micro-climates and transverse mountain ranges that greatly affect precipitation levels depending upon the orientation of the front or storm and where the moisture feed is coming from.

Now...If we look at the satellite loop...this shows how much moisture is already being entrained into this system from lower latitudes.

Attached Image

To me this appears to be a very wet system, with lots of moisture being drawn up from the sub-tropical jet. Even if the low is not that vigorous, the warmer temperatures and uplift of springtime air should make this a storm to remember...


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Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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Artisane
post Apr 24 2012, 08:13 AM
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I now can see why the models are confused as to how much will fall. If that low tracks too far to the south, then that moisture plume will come onshore way too far to the south.
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Jet Developer
post Apr 24 2012, 09:20 AM
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Wow, is that actual blue sky and sunshine I'm seeing this morning or am I in a dream?

When we used to have episodes of June Gloom before I'd sometimes have a dream that the morning was sunny, only to wake up to another miserable day of overcast and drizzle.

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Beck
post Apr 24 2012, 10:26 AM
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Rainfall totals are still up in the air but they don't look to get any higher than 1" for most areas at this point. Offshore Flow will return this weekend and then a trough (with no moisture) early next week.


--------------------
Temecula Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00" (-0.00")
Normal to-date precipitation: 0.00"
Season began July 1st, 2014.

My Seasonal Precipitation 2014-2015: 0.00"

Temecula Weather Pages
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Jet Developer
post Apr 24 2012, 11:04 AM
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Was not expecting to have the Sun in my eyes in my window cubicle this morning. Thought it would be safe to keep the window fully open all week long.
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alxz310
post Apr 24 2012, 12:05 PM
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Why hello.... sunny skies, 64F and light offshore flow huh.gif


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Davis, CA

Seasonal Rainfall: 0.00"

Average to Date (End Month): -.--"

Monthly Rainfall (September): 0.00"
Average: -.--"

Average Temps (September)

Average High: --F
Actual to Date: --F

Average Low: --F
Actual to Date: --F

Record High: ---F
Record Low: --F
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Jet Developer
post Apr 24 2012, 02:22 PM
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Wow, 73 in San Diego and Santa Monica was up to 69. That's the warmest weather those two places have had in a week!!! Probably won't be too long (over the next few weeks) before the next inland heat wave puts the beaches in the freezer again.

Will they one day say "The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in Santa Monica"?

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FrostFuzz
post Apr 24 2012, 03:28 PM
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Wow, two earthquakes in two days. I feel like we are just waiting for the big one to happen... unsure.gif


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My Precip Total '13-'14: 4.36"


Precip for '14-'15 pending

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Mike1014
post Apr 24 2012, 03:46 PM
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QUOTE(FrostFuzz @ Apr 24 2012, 12:28 PM) *
Wow, two earthquakes in two days. I feel like we are just waiting for the big one to happen... unsure.gif


The San Andreas fault near Indio had been mildly active within the past couple weeks with small but detectable EQs measuring 3.3 to 3.7. So Cal has been awfully quiet seismically as of late, I wouldn't be surprised if we do get at least a 6.0 jolt in the area within the next few months....hopefully nothing too bad or near a populated area (knock on wood).


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Precipitation for the 2012/2013 rainfall season in La Quinta, CA...2.68"

Precipitation for the 2013/2014 rainfall season in La Quinta, CA...

July:...0.35"
Aug:...2.11"
Sep:...0.67"
Oct:....0.12"
Nov:...Trace
Dec:...0.08"
Jan:....0.00"
Feb:....Trace
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Artisane
post Apr 24 2012, 04:32 PM
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QUOTE(Mike1014 @ Apr 24 2012, 01:46 PM) *
The San Andreas fault near Indio had been mildly active within the past couple weeks with small but detectable EQs measuring 3.3 to 3.7. So Cal has been awfully quiet seismically as of late, I wouldn't be surprised if we do get at least a 6.0 jolt in the area within the next few months....hopefully nothing too bad or near a populated area (knock on wood).

I've been horrible about getting earthquake insurance. I really should do it.
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