Apr. 25-26 Southwest (So. Cal) Late Winter Storm, Unusually strong late winter storm could bring heavy rain Wed. night Options

[Beck]

This summer will be either summer or winter, sometimes a day apart.

This cold PDO is just going to dominate again.

A cold PDO doesn't guarantee a cold summer for us, however.

The PDO was cold in 2009, but that summer was mostly warmer than normal. The PDO was also cold back in 2000, but that summer was very hot for us inland areas.

[Severewx1]

What the heck... 12Z GFS only outputs 0.05" of rain, down from .77" in the last run .... OK... looks like an outlier for no

18z has similar outputs

This post has been edited by Severewx1: Apr 23 2012, 05:37 PM

[Jet Developer]

From my office I can see the coastal foothills with areas of brighter sky behind them and there is a lot of beautiful green with yellow flowers. Usually by this time of year the foothills are brown, but not this year with our three-month-late winter.

This post has been edited by Jet Developer: Apr 23 2012, 05:47 PM

[Artisane]

A cold PDO doesn't guarantee a cold summer for us, however.

The PDO was cold in 2009, but that summer was mostly warmer than normal. The PDO was also cold back in 2000, but that summer was very hot for us inland areas.

I'm thinking cold on the immediate coast again with clouds/ML pushing in.

Inland areas have huge swings with offshore/onshore flows.

[vb3347]

Enjoyed today's weather for a change, the 86F high felt great coupled with sunshine and a rather strong breeze. That triple-digit heat sure makes you appreciate days like this.

This post has been edited by vb3347: Apr 23 2012, 07:53 PM

[Artisane]

Temps went from mid 80s to around 60 in about an hour and a half once the wind picked up. If I had a good camera and a nice spot to catch it, I'd record the clouds pouring over the mountains. Winds are over 70mph at the base of the foothills and a timelapse video isn't even needed to see the movement, even at 20 miles away.

[Jet Developer]

How did San Diego manage to make it to 65 degrees when Ramona and Burbank topped it out at 59 degrees?

[Beck]

Now it looks like we may get a lot less rain than originally thought - only up to 0.5" inch predicted here. But these projected totals seem to change every day, so we'll see.....

[LALEO]

Because this is a Cut off Low, I am not looking too much into the discussions as well as the model runs. These types of systems are notorious for being darn near impossible to get a handle on sometimes.

[Severewx1]

Because this is a Cut off Low, I am not looking too much into the discussions as well as the model runs. These types of systems are notorious for being darn near impossible to get a handle on sometimes.

Seriously...model to model variation right now is so extreme. One model shows a trace of rain and the other models shows a good dosing. Your probably better off tracking the storm in the radar on Wednesday!

[idecline]

I think that models are very inconsistant for California forecasting, especially with the micro-climates and transverse mountain ranges that greatly affect precipitation levels depending upon the orientation of the front or storm and where the moisture feed is coming from.

Now...If we look at the satellite loop...this shows how much moisture is already being entrained into this system from lower latitudes.



To me this appears to be a very wet system, with lots of moisture being drawn up from the sub-tropical jet. Even if the low is not that vigorous, the warmer temperatures and uplift of springtime air should make this a storm to remember...

[Artisane]

I now can see why the models are confused as to how much will fall. If that low tracks too far to the south, then that moisture plume will come onshore way too far to the south.

[Jet Developer]

Wow, is that actual blue sky and sunshine I'm seeing this morning or am I in a dream?

When we used to have episodes of June Gloom before I'd sometimes have a dream that the morning was sunny, only to wake up to another miserable day of overcast and drizzle.

This post has been edited by Jet Developer: Apr 24 2012, 09:21 AM

[Beck]

Rainfall totals are still up in the air but they don't look to get any higher than 1" for most areas at this point. Offshore Flow will return this weekend and then a trough (with no moisture) early next week.

[Jet Developer]

Was not expecting to have the Sun in my eyes in my window cubicle this morning. Thought it would be safe to keep the window fully open all week long.

[alxz310]

Why hello.... sunny skies, 64F and light offshore flow

[Jet Developer]

Wow, 73 in San Diego and Santa Monica was up to 69. That's the warmest weather those two places have had in a week!!! Probably won't be too long (over the next few weeks) before the next inland heat wave puts the beaches in the freezer again.

Will they one day say "The coldest winter I ever spent was a summer in Santa Monica"?

This post has been edited by Jet Developer: Apr 24 2012, 02:24 PM

[FrostFuzz]

Wow, two earthquakes in two days. I feel like we are just waiting for the big one to happen...

[Mike1014]

Wow, two earthquakes in two days. I feel like we are just waiting for the big one to happen...

The San Andreas fault near Indio had been mildly active within the past couple weeks with small but detectable EQs measuring 3.3 to 3.7. So Cal has been awfully quiet seismically as of late, I wouldn't be surprised if we do get at least a 6.0 jolt in the area within the next few months....hopefully nothing too bad or near a populated area (knock on wood).

[Artisane]

The San Andreas fault near Indio had been mildly active within the past couple weeks with small but detectable EQs measuring 3.3 to 3.7. So Cal has been awfully quiet seismically as of late, I wouldn't be surprised if we do get at least a 6.0 jolt in the area within the next few months....hopefully nothing too bad or near a populated area (knock on wood).

I've been horrible about getting earthquake insurance. I really should do it.