 April 24-26 MW/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Slight Risk Forecasts and OBS |
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 Apr 25 2012, 11:47 AM
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#21
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm  Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113  |
Dropped the 5% tornado prob and the 30% probs for both hqail and wind, although they did keep an area hatched for hail.
    QUOTE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT WED APR 25 2012 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... ...MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT... A SUBTLE MID-UPPER SPEED MAX OVER SD/NEB/IA WILL TRANSLATE SEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THE WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE WHICH WILL LIKEWISE DEVELOP ESEWD FROM NW IA/SW MN ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO NW IL THIS EVENING AND OH BY 26/12Z. 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS SPREAD EWD TO THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL EXTEND AS FAR EWD AS THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME AND AN ASSOCIATED CAP. RECENT SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST...ASIDE FROM THE HRRR...HAVE ALL DISPLAYED SERIOUS OVER-FORECAST BIASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH FORECAST ERRORS OF 1.5-2 G/KG IN 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS...OR 5-7 F TOO HIGH FOR MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. THESE MOISTURE FORECAST ERRORS RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL OVER-FORECASTS OF CAPE...AND UNDER-FORECASTS OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INSTEAD OF MODEL FORECASTS OF 64-70 F DEWPOINTS FROM OK-IL BY 00Z...EXPECT VALUES TO RANGE FROM 59-64 F ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THE MOISTURE ERRORS ALSO APPEAR TO BE IMPACTING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS...INCLUDING THE STRONG MCS SIGNALS NOTED IN THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING NSSL ARW AND HIGH-RES EAST/WEST WINDOWS OF THE NMM. CONVERSELY...MORNING HRRR FORECASTS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER /PERHAPS TOO DRY/...AND STORM INTENSITY IS MUCH REDUCED FROM THE OTHER MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LIKELY MODEL FORECAST BIASES...THE SEVERE STORM RISK APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. ...NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING... CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS MORNINGS...AND REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A SOMEWHAT COOLER/MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TOMORROW. STILL...POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AGAIN SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/. THE COMBINATION OF AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME RISK OF ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL. ..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 04/25/2012 |
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Apr 25 2012, 11:47 AM
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#22
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,577 Joined: 30-December 08 From: Dayton,OH Member No.: 16,713 |
Newest update drops the 5% tornado and 30% wind and hail. Hatched area in hail remains. Slight risk area is basically the same.
QUOTE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT WED APR 25 2012 VALID 251630Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS... ...MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT... A SUBTLE MID-UPPER SPEED MAX OVER SD/NEB/IA WILL TRANSLATE SEWD TO THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THE WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE WHICH WILL LIKEWISE DEVELOP ESEWD FROM NW IA/SW MN ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO NW IL THIS EVENING AND OH BY 26/12Z. 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT A VERY WARM ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS SPREAD EWD TO THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL EXTEND AS FAR EWD AS THE MID MS/LOWER OH VALLEY REGION BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE RETURN IS UNDERWAY BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME AND AN ASSOCIATED CAP. RECENT SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST...ASIDE FROM THE HRRR...HAVE ALL DISPLAYED SERIOUS OVER-FORECAST BIASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH FORECAST ERRORS OF 1.5-2 G/KG IN 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS...OR 5-7 F TOO HIGH FOR MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. THESE MOISTURE FORECAST ERRORS RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL OVER-FORECASTS OF CAPE...AND UNDER-FORECASTS OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INSTEAD OF MODEL FORECASTS OF 64-70 F DEWPOINTS FROM OK-IL BY 00Z...EXPECT VALUES TO RANGE FROM 59-64 F ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THE MOISTURE ERRORS ALSO APPEAR TO BE IMPACTING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS...INCLUDING THE STRONG MCS SIGNALS NOTED IN THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING NSSL ARW AND HIGH-RES EAST/WEST WINDOWS OF THE NMM. CONVERSELY...MORNING HRRR FORECASTS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER /PERHAPS TOO DRY/...AND STORM INTENSITY IS MUCH REDUCED FROM THE OTHER MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LIKELY MODEL FORECAST BIASES...THE SEVERE STORM RISK APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. -------------------- # of T-Storm Watches:2
# of Tornado Watches: # of T-Storm Warnings: # of Tornado Warnings: |
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Apr 25 2012, 11:50 AM
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#23
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
QUOTE(CIWeather @ Apr 25 2012, 11:11 AM)  I like their vague wording on the chances for storms later, just using "the real risk," which covers them if nothing happens because then they could say that there wasn't a big chance anyway but that's when the best chances for things to develop were. They haven't mentioned it at all really, didn't mention the slight risk in anything yesterday although it was there in both SPC updates. Guess they seen what SPC is acknowledging today. Although we're not seeing all the cloud debris they were worried about earlier, this says it all from the update above QUOTE RECENT SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST...ASIDE FROM THE
HRRR...HAVE ALL DISPLAYED SERIOUS OVER-FORECAST BIASES IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH FORECAST ERRORS OF 1.5-2 G/KG IN 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS...OR 5-7 F TOO HIGH FOR MEAN BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. THESE MOISTURE FORECAST ERRORS RESULT IN SUBSTANTIAL OVER-FORECASTS OF CAPE...AND UNDER-FORECASTS OF CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INSTEAD OF MODEL FORECASTS OF 64-70 F DEWPOINTS FROM OK-IL BY 00Z...EXPECT VALUES TO RANGE FROM 59-64 F ACROSS THE SAME AREA. THE MOISTURE ERRORS ALSO APPEAR TO BE IMPACTING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS...INCLUDING THE STRONG MCS SIGNALS NOTED IN THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING NSSL ARW AND HIGH-RES EAST/WEST WINDOWS OF THE NMM. CONVERSELY...MORNING HRRR FORECASTS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY DRIER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER /PERHAPS TOO DRY/...AND STORM INTENSITY IS MUCH REDUCED FROM THE OTHER MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL TRENDS AND LIKELY MODEL FORECAST BIASES...THE SEVERE STORM RISK APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT. This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Apr 25 2012, 11:52 AM |
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Apr 25 2012, 11:52 AM
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#24
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,457 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
Lots of Clouds
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Apr 25 2012, 12:11 PM
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#25
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Current OBS, still have a pesky east wind
QUOTE Springfield, Capital Airport
Lat: 39.86 Lon: -89.67 Elev: 586 Last Update on Apr 25, 11:52 am CDT Fair 74 °F (23 °C) Humidity: 56 % Wind Speed: E 12 MPH Barometer: 29.63" (1003.3 mb) Dewpoint: 57 °F (14 °C) Visibility: 10.00 mi |
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Apr 25 2012, 12:13 PM
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#26
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Satellite
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Apr 25 2012, 12:27 PM
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#27
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Rank: Tornado Group: Member Posts: 377 Joined: 21-April 11 From: Clark/Floyd County Member No.: 25,607 |
Hazardous Outlooks from LMK, and IND
LMK First QUOTE THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY. .DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH- CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THESE THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING THE MAIN THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE A SECONDARY THREAT...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET. IND QUOTE .DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.
OUTLOOK: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT. HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...LIGHTNING. TIMING: BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 500 PM AND MIDNIGHT. DISCUSSION: A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH THESE FRONTS...AND SOME OF THEM MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. -------------------- Clark & Floyd Counties,
Indiana 2013 Tornado Warnings: 0 Tornado Watches: 1 Severe Warnings: 2 Severe Watches: 1 Confirmed Tornadoes: 0 |
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Apr 25 2012, 12:46 PM
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#28
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,990 Joined: 29-January 11 Member No.: 25,272 |
Just had some sprinkles/light showers here on the west end of Champaign.
-------------------- 2012-2013 Fall/Winter Statistics
First Chance of Snow: 11/26/12 (Rain/Snow Mix; First Forecasted on 11/20/12) First Snowflakes: 11/26/12 First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: 12/31/12 (Winter Weather Advisory) First Winter Storm Watch: 3/22/13 First Winter Storm Warning: 2/21/13 FINALLY!!! First Blizzard Watch/Warning: 12/20/12 # of Winter Storm Watches: 1 # of Winter Storm Warnings: 1 # of Blizzard Watches/Warnings: 1 First 1" Snowfall: 12/31/12 2013 Severe Weather Statistics First Risk of Severe Weather: Slight Risks: Moderate Risks: High Risks: Severe Thunderstorm Watches: Tornado Watches: Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: Tornado Warnings: April 18-19, 2011: 15-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL. |
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Apr 25 2012, 01:16 PM
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#29
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Latest aviation update from ILX
QUOTE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 100 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012 .AVIATION... ISSUED 1255 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012 NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORECAST. FRONT SLOW TO MOVE...AND WIND SHIFT POSTPONED A BIT. LIMITED MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT CIN KEEPING THE TS THREAT DOWN FOR NOW. WAVE TO THE WEST NOT COLLIDING WITH MAX HEATING...AND WILL KEEP THE MENTION TO VC STILL. BETTER CHANCES ARE IN THE EAST...MAYBE CMI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AROUND OR AFTER 00Z...BUT NOT ENOUGH CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A TEMPO. FURTHER ALONG IN THE FORECAST...MODELS MISHANDLING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND HINTING TO MVFR CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE/PRECIP IS NOT MATERIALIZING AS ANTICIPATED...AND WILL BE A MAJOR CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO BOTH FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. KEEPING SCT LOW IN FOR NOW...BUT NOT MORE. HJS |
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Apr 25 2012, 01:56 PM
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#30
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Not sure how much stock you can put into it going by SPC outlook and forecasting errors, but 12Z WRF-NMM cut back on convection a bit and shifted it more from central IL SE.
QUOTE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1130 AM CDT WED APR 25 2012 THE MOISTURE ERRORS ALSO APPEAR TO BE IMPACTING CONVECTIVE PRECIPITATION FORECASTS...INCLUDING THE STRONG MCS SIGNALS NOTED IN THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING NSSL ARW AND HIGH-RES EAST/WEST WINDOWS OF THE NMM.... 
This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Apr 25 2012, 01:57 PM |
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Apr 25 2012, 02:55 PM
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#31
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Dropped the hatching for hail, everything else unchanged. Doesn't sound like it will be much of anything
QUOTE DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0233 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012 VALID 252000Z - 261200Z ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION... LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF OVERLY AGGRESSIVE MODELS IN REGARDS TO MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION. SFC DEW POINTS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F ACROSS MO/SRN IL AND COMBINED WITH A STRONG CAP THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE IN PLACE WEAKER MUCAPE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WEAKER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS. FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO LOWER THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE HAIL. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION ATOP THE CAP FROM ERN IA INTO SRN IND AND THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE...THROUGH ONLY SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND BENEATH THE STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. EVEN SO IT APPEARS SUSTAINED SWLY FEED OF WARM ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COOL SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM IL INTO SRN OH/NRN KY. GIVEN THE CAP THIS MAY TAKE SOME TIME AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED DURING THE OVERNIGHT HOURS RATHER THAN A LATE AFTERNOON SCENARIO. ..DARROW.. 04/25/2012 |
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Apr 25 2012, 03:13 PM
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#32
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
ILX AFD
QUOTE AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 227 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012 .DISCUSSION... ISSUED 215 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012 18Z ILX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACRS THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL IOWA EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT DRAPPING FROM THE LOW OVER IOWA SE INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AS THE LOW SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO UPPER 50S... ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL FORECASTS...SEEN OVER WEST CENTRAL THRU SOUTHERN IL JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT. SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE CONVECTION CHANCES/COVERAGE THIS EVENING...AND THEN TIMING OF RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRI OR SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST SYSTEM EJECTS NE INTO THE MIDWEST. WEAK WAVE NOTED OVER CENTRAL IOWA SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST WILL PUSH ACRS OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE FEATURE MAY BREAK THE CAP BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THAT SCENARIO BASED ON THE 18Z SOUNDING DATA. IF A STORM CAN BREAK THRU THE CAP...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH AN ISOLD TORNADO A POSSIBILITY CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD BE OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH SUCH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CIN DEPICTED ACRS THE AREA IN FORECAST SOUNDINGS...COVERAGE MAY BE HELD BACK QUITE A BIT. HIGHEST POPS... IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY...WILL BE ACRS THE EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS THIS EVENING...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE AND BOUNDARY. FRONT AND ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY THURSDAY MORNING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE NORTH. And the 18Z sounding mentioned 
This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Apr 25 2012, 04:02 PM |
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Apr 25 2012, 04:13 PM
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#33
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Hear some decent thunder off to the north. Looks like something got going on radar, especially so close to the 18Z sounding site. Then of course run of the mill showers to my NW, I'm a storm repellant or something.
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Apr 25 2012, 04:15 PM
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#34
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
1st warning
QUOTE BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 413 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012 THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A * SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR... WESTERN DE WITT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS... * UNTIL 500 PM CDT. * AT 410 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LINCOLN...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. * LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE... LINCOLN...ATLANTA...MOUNT PULASKI...BEASON...CHESTNUT... WAYNESVILLE...LATHAM...LAWNDALE...MIDLAND CITY AND HALLSVILLE. |
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Apr 25 2012, 04:16 PM
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#35
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Should get an MD shortly
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Apr 25 2012, 04:40 PM
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#36
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 4,457 Joined: 20-February 11 From: Beavercreek, OH Member No.: 25,413 |
 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585 QUOTE NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012 AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL AND SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 252136Z - 252300Z STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW HOURS...WITH MAINLY A HAIL AND WIND THREAT. A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY. THE 18Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT STILL STABLE FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS. HOWEVER...WHEN MODIFIED FOR CURRENT CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S F AND DEWPOINTS APPROACHING 60 F...CIN IS NEARLY GONE. INDEED...STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO DEVELOP OVER CNTRL IL...NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND WHERE LOW LEVEL WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY ALREADY APPEARS TO HAVE A HAIL AND WIND THREAT. WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 50 KT NW ORIENTED DEEP SHEAR...THIS WILL FAVOR LONG LIVED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS. STORM MODE COULD REMAIN SUPERCELLULAR IF OUTFLOW PRODUCTION IS KEPT LOW...BUT SOME SWWD PROPAGATION IS POSSIBLE...AND MERGING OUTFLOWS WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A WIND THREAT. THE MAIN DETRIMENT TO TORNADOES WILL BE THE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL MOISTURE IN RELATION TO RELATIVELY WARM/DRY AIR FROM 850-700 MB AND MARGINAL LCL HEIGHTS. A ROGUE TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. THE AREA FROM SRN IL INTO SWRN IND...NEAR THE BOUNDARY BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY TORNADO POTENTIAL. |
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Apr 25 2012, 04:46 PM
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#37
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 Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 8,423 Joined: 10-August 09 From: SW Coastal CT (10 miles from beach) Member No.: 18,864 |
QUOTE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL 426 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012 ...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN DE WITT AND LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT... AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR LINCOLN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH. LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...MOUNT PULASKI...BEASON...CHESTNUT...WAYNESVILLE...LATHAM ..MIDLAND CITY AND HALLSVILLE. NICKEL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM IN LINCOLN AT 420 PM CDT. 40 MPH WINDS OCCURRED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE JUST EAST OF LINCOLN. http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=i...&glossary=0 0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E NEW HOLLAND 40.18N 89.56W 04/25/2012 LOGAN IL EMERGENCY MNGR DAMAGE TO A SHED. PIECES BLOWN ACROSS IL ROUTE 10. -------------------- Snow Totals Per Season:
2007-08: 21" 2008-09: 41" 2009-10: 39.5" 2010-11: 71.5" 2011-12: 14" 2012-13: 46.5" Average(since 1950) = 27.75" |
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Apr 25 2012, 05:48 PM
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#38
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
Looks like that one storm was the appetizer, entree and desert wrapped up in one. Trying to remember when the last time I was in a watch of any kind was, i know we never had any winter watches so guessing last Fall/Summer. Maybe can make it through summer at this rate.
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Apr 25 2012, 05:51 PM
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#39
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 1,990 Joined: 29-January 11 Member No.: 25,272 |
QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Apr 25 2012, 05:48 PM) Looks like that one storm was the appetizer, entree and desert wrapped up in one. Trying to remember when the last time I was in a watch of any kind was, i know we never had any winter watches so guessing last Fall/Summer. Maybe can make it through summer at this rate. Yeah...this is unbelievable. 
-------------------- 2012-2013 Fall/Winter Statistics
First Chance of Snow: 11/26/12 (Rain/Snow Mix; First Forecasted on 11/20/12) First Snowflakes: 11/26/12 First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: 12/31/12 (Winter Weather Advisory) First Winter Storm Watch: 3/22/13 First Winter Storm Warning: 2/21/13 FINALLY!!! First Blizzard Watch/Warning: 12/20/12 # of Winter Storm Watches: 1 # of Winter Storm Warnings: 1 # of Blizzard Watches/Warnings: 1 First 1" Snowfall: 12/31/12 2013 Severe Weather Statistics First Risk of Severe Weather: Slight Risks: Moderate Risks: High Risks: Severe Thunderstorm Watches: Tornado Watches: Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: Tornado Warnings: April 18-19, 2011: 15-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL. |
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Apr 25 2012, 06:13 PM
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#40
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Rank: F5 Superstorm Group: Member Posts: 9,535 Joined: 26-January 10 From: Springfield, IL Member No.: 21,113 |
QUOTE(CIWeather @ Apr 25 2012, 05:51 PM) Yeah...this is unbelievable. Meh, it's actually quite believable, or rather, expected anymore. Unbelivable would be in a watch with a well organized squall line heading in. Last good storm I can remember was last May when we had 1 1/2 - 2" hail and even that was more hail than thunder, lightning or wind. That's the one that sticks out Waiting for ILX aviation update to come out shortly, although I'm pretty sure I already know what it will hold. Sheesh, now I need a tissue 
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Lo-Fi Version | Time is now: 23rd May 2013 - 03:42 PM |