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> April 24-26 MW/OV Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 1 Slight Risk Forecasts and OBS
WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 11:47 AM
Post #21




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Dropped the 5% tornado prob and the 30% probs for both hqail and wind, although they did keep an area hatched for hail.









QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED APR 25 2012

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...

...MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SUBTLE MID-UPPER SPEED MAX OVER SD/NEB/IA WILL TRANSLATE SEWD TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THE WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE WHICH WILL LIKEWISE DEVELOP
ESEWD FROM NW IA/SW MN ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO NW IL THIS
EVENING AND OH BY 26/12Z. 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT A VERY WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS SPREAD EWD TO THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS
LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL EXTEND AS FAR EWD AS THE MID MS/LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN IS UNDERWAY BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP. RECENT SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST...ASIDE FROM THE
HRRR...HAVE ALL DISPLAYED SERIOUS OVER-FORECAST BIASES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH FORECAST ERRORS OF 1.5-2
G/KG IN 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS...OR 5-7 F TOO HIGH FOR MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. THESE MOISTURE FORECAST ERRORS RESULT IN
SUBSTANTIAL OVER-FORECASTS OF CAPE...AND UNDER-FORECASTS OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INSTEAD OF MODEL FORECASTS OF 64-70 F
DEWPOINTS FROM OK-IL BY 00Z...EXPECT VALUES TO RANGE FROM 59-64 F
ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

THE MOISTURE ERRORS ALSO APPEAR TO BE IMPACTING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS...INCLUDING THE STRONG MCS SIGNALS NOTED IN
THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING NSSL ARW AND HIGH-RES EAST/WEST WINDOWS OF
THE NMM. CONVERSELY...MORNING HRRR FORECASTS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY
DRIER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER /PERHAPS TOO DRY/...AND STORM INTENSITY
IS MUCH REDUCED FROM THE OTHER MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND LIKELY MODEL FORECAST BIASES...THE SEVERE STORM RISK
APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.

...NRN ROCKIES THIS AFTERNOON/EVENING...
CLOUD COVER IS MORE EXTENSIVE THIS MORNING COMPARED TO PREVIOUS
MORNINGS...AND REGIONAL SOUNDINGS SUPPORT A GRADUAL TRANSITION TO A
SOMEWHAT COOLER/MORE MOIST ENVIRONMENT THROUGH TOMORROW.
STILL...POCKETS OF SURFACE HEATING SHOULD AGAIN SUPPORT THUNDERSTORM
DEVELOPMENT /ESPECIALLY OVER THE HIGH TERRAIN/. THE COMBINATION OF
AT LEAST WEAK INSTABILITY AND DEEP-LAYER SWLY FLOW WILL SUPPORT SOME
RISK OF ORGANIZED STORM CLUSTERS CAPABLE OF PRODUCING ISOLATED
STRONG/DAMAGING GUSTS AND MARGINALLY SEVERE HAIL.

..THOMPSON/ROGERS.. 04/25/2012
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snowlover2
post Apr 25 2012, 11:47 AM
Post #22




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Newest update drops the 5% tornado and 30% wind and hail. Hatched area in hail remains. Slight risk area is basically the same.

QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED APR 25 2012

VALID 251630Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS THIS EVENING THROUGH TONIGHT
FOR PARTS OF THE MID MS AND OH VALLEYS...

...MID MS/OH VALLEY REGION THROUGH TONIGHT...
A SUBTLE MID-UPPER SPEED MAX OVER SD/NEB/IA WILL TRANSLATE SEWD TO
THE LOWER OH VALLEY BY TONIGHT. THE WEAK WAVE ALOFT WILL BE
ACCOMPANIED BY A REMNANT LEE CYCLONE WHICH WILL LIKEWISE DEVELOP
ESEWD FROM NW IA/SW MN ALONG A SURFACE WARM FRONT TO NW IL THIS
EVENING AND OH BY 26/12Z. 12Z SOUNDINGS REVEAL THAT A VERY WARM
ELEVATED MIXED LAYER HAS SPREAD EWD TO THE ERN PLAINS...AND THIS
LAPSE RATE PLUME WILL EXTEND AS FAR EWD AS THE MID MS/LOWER OH
VALLEY REGION BY THIS EVENING. MEANWHILE...LOW-LEVEL MOISTURE
RETURN IS UNDERWAY BENEATH THE MIDLEVEL LAPSE RATE PLUME AND AN
ASSOCIATED CAP. RECENT SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST...ASIDE FROM THE
HRRR...HAVE ALL DISPLAYED SERIOUS OVER-FORECAST BIASES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH FORECAST ERRORS OF 1.5-2
G/KG IN 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS...OR 5-7 F TOO HIGH FOR MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. THESE MOISTURE FORECAST ERRORS RESULT IN
SUBSTANTIAL OVER-FORECASTS OF CAPE...AND UNDER-FORECASTS OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INSTEAD OF MODEL FORECASTS OF 64-70 F
DEWPOINTS FROM OK-IL BY 00Z...EXPECT VALUES TO RANGE FROM 59-64 F
ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

THE MOISTURE ERRORS ALSO APPEAR TO BE IMPACTING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS...INCLUDING THE STRONG MCS SIGNALS NOTED IN
THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING NSSL ARW AND HIGH-RES EAST/WEST WINDOWS OF
THE NMM. CONVERSELY...MORNING HRRR FORECASTS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY
DRIER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER /PERHAPS TOO DRY/...AND STORM INTENSITY
IS MUCH REDUCED FROM THE OTHER MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND LIKELY MODEL FORECAST BIASES...THE SEVERE STORM RISK
APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.


--------------------
First Snowflakes:11/1/14

First 1"+ Snowfall:

Biggest Snowfall:

First Winter Storm Watch:

First Winter Storm Warning:

# of Winter Storm Watches:

# of Winter Storm Warnings:
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 11:50 AM
Post #23




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QUOTE(CIWeather @ Apr 25 2012, 11:11 AM) *
I like their vague wording on the chances for storms later, just using "the real risk," which covers them if nothing happens because then they could say that there wasn't a big chance anyway but that's when the best chances for things to develop were.


They haven't mentioned it at all really, didn't mention the slight risk in anything yesterday although it was there in both SPC updates. Guess they seen what SPC is acknowledging today. Although we're not seeing all the cloud debris they were worried about earlier, this says it all from the update above

QUOTE
RECENT SHORT-TERM MODEL FORECAST...ASIDE FROM THE
HRRR...HAVE ALL DISPLAYED SERIOUS OVER-FORECAST BIASES IN THE
BOUNDARY LAYER MOISTURE PROFILES...WITH FORECAST ERRORS OF 1.5-2
G/KG IN 100 MB MEAN MIXING RATIOS...OR 5-7 F TOO HIGH FOR MEAN
BOUNDARY LAYER DEWPOINTS. THESE MOISTURE FORECAST ERRORS RESULT IN
SUBSTANTIAL OVER-FORECASTS OF CAPE...AND UNDER-FORECASTS OF
CONVECTIVE INHIBITION. INSTEAD OF MODEL FORECASTS OF 64-70 F
DEWPOINTS FROM OK-IL BY 00Z...EXPECT VALUES TO RANGE FROM 59-64 F
ACROSS THE SAME AREA.

THE MOISTURE ERRORS ALSO APPEAR TO BE IMPACTING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS...INCLUDING THE STRONG MCS SIGNALS NOTED IN
THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING NSSL ARW AND HIGH-RES EAST/WEST WINDOWS OF
THE NMM. CONVERSELY...MORNING HRRR FORECASTS ARE SUBSTANTIALLY
DRIER IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER /PERHAPS TOO DRY/...AND STORM INTENSITY
IS MUCH REDUCED FROM THE OTHER MODEL FORECASTS. GIVEN OBSERVATIONAL
TRENDS AND LIKELY MODEL FORECAST BIASES...THE SEVERE STORM RISK
APPEARS TO BE LOWER THAN PREVIOUSLY ANTICIPATED ACROSS THE OH VALLEY
THIS EVENING INTO TONIGHT.


This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Apr 25 2012, 11:52 AM
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Juniorrr
post Apr 25 2012, 11:52 AM
Post #24




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Lots of Clouds
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 12:11 PM
Post #25




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Current OBS, still have a pesky east wind

QUOTE
Springfield, Capital Airport
Lat: 39.86 Lon: -89.67 Elev: 586
Last Update on Apr 25, 11:52 am CDT


Fair

74 °F
(23 °C) Humidity: 56 %
Wind Speed: E 12 MPH
Barometer: 29.63" (1003.3 mb)
Dewpoint: 57 °F (14 °C)
Visibility: 10.00 mi
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 12:13 PM
Post #26




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Satellite

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Southern Indiana
post Apr 25 2012, 12:27 PM
Post #27




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From: Clark/Floyd County
Member No.: 25,607





Hazardous Outlooks from LMK, and IND

LMK First

QUOTE
THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF SOUTH CENTRAL
INDIANA AND CENTRAL KENTUCKY.

.DAY ONE...THIS AFTERNOON AND TONIGHT.

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM MOVING TOWARD THE REGION THIS AFTERNOON WILL
GENERATE THUNDERSTORMS OVER SOUTH-CENTRAL INDIANA AND NORTH-
CENTRAL KENTUCKY LATE THIS AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING. THESE
THUNDERSTORMS WILL THEN MOVE SOUTHEAST ACROSS CENTRAL KENTUCKY
OVERNIGHT. A FEW STORMS COULD BECOME SEVERE WITH LARGE HAIL BEING
THE MAIN THREAT. DAMAGING WINDS AND AN ISOLATED TORNADO WILL BE A
SECONDARY THREAT...ESPECIALLY BEFORE SUNSET
.


IND

QUOTE
.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

OUTLOOK: SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE THIS AFTERNOON AND
TONIGHT.

HAZARDS: DAMAGING WINDS...LARGE HAIL...ISOLATED TORNADOES...LIGHTNING.

TIMING: BEST CHANCES FOR SEVERE STORMS WILL BE BETWEEN 500 PM AND
MIDNIGHT.


DISCUSSION: A WARM FRONT WILL MOVE INTO THE AREA THIS AFTERNOON
FOLLOWED BY A COLD FRONT TONIGHT. THUNDERSTORMS ARE POSSIBLE WITH
THESE FRONTS...AND SOME OF THEM MAY BECOME SEVERE LATE THIS
AFTERNOON INTO THIS EVENING.


--------------------
Clark & Floyd Counties,
Indiana 2013

Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 1
Severe Warnings: 2
Severe Watches: 1
Confirmed Tornadoes: 0
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CIWeather
post Apr 25 2012, 12:46 PM
Post #28




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Just had some sprinkles/light showers here on the west end of Champaign.


--------------------
2012-2013 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow: 11/26/12 (Rain/Snow Mix; First Forecasted on 11/20/12)
First Snowflakes: 11/26/12
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: 12/31/12 (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 3/22/13
First Winter Storm Warning: 2/21/13 FINALLY!!!
First Blizzard Watch/Warning: 12/20/12
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings: 1
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings: 1
First 1" Snowfall: 12/31/12

2013 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks:
Moderate Risks:
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches:
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2011: 15-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 01:16 PM
Post #29




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Latest aviation update from ILX

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
100 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012


.AVIATION...
ISSUED 1255 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012
NOT MUCH IN THE WAY OF A SHIFT THIS AFTERNOON IN THE FORECAST.
FRONT SLOW TO MOVE...AND WIND SHIFT POSTPONED A BIT. LIMITED
MOISTURE AND SIGNIFICANT CIN KEEPING THE TS THREAT DOWN FOR NOW.
WAVE TO THE WEST NOT COLLIDING WITH MAX HEATING...AND WILL KEEP
THE MENTION TO VC STILL. BETTER CHANCES ARE IN THE EAST...MAYBE
CMI LATER THIS AFTERNOON AROUND OR AFTER 00Z...BUT NOT ENOUGH
CONFIDENCE TO GO WITH A TEMPO. FURTHER ALONG IN THE
FORECAST...MODELS MISHANDLING MOISTURE IN THE BOUNDARY LAYER AND
HINTING TO MVFR CIGS AFTER MIDNIGHT. HOWEVER...MOISTURE/PRECIP IS
NOT MATERIALIZING AS ANTICIPATED...AND WILL BE A MAJOR
CONTRIBUTING FACTOR TO BOTH FOG AND STRATUS DEVELOPMENT. KEEPING
SCT LOW IN FOR NOW...BUT NOT MORE.


HJS

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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 01:56 PM
Post #30




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From: Springfield, IL
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Not sure how much stock you can put into it going by SPC outlook and forecasting errors, but 12Z WRF-NMM cut back on convection a bit and shifted it more from central IL SE.

QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
1130 AM CDT WED APR 25 2012

THE MOISTURE ERRORS ALSO APPEAR TO BE IMPACTING CONVECTIVE
PRECIPITATION FORECASTS...INCLUDING THE STRONG MCS SIGNALS NOTED IN
THE CONVECTION-ALLOWING NSSL ARW AND HIGH-RES EAST/WEST WINDOWS OF
THE NMM.
...




This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Apr 25 2012, 01:57 PM
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 02:55 PM
Post #31




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Dropped the hatching for hail, everything else unchanged. Doesn't sound like it will be much of anything



QUOTE
DAY 1 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0233 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012

VALID 252000Z - 261200Z

...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE MID MS/OH VALLEY
REGION...

LATEST OBSERVATIONAL DATA CONTINUE TO SUPPORT THE IDEA OF OVERLY
AGGRESSIVE MODELS IN REGARDS TO MOISTURE RETURN ACROSS THE MID MS/OH
VALLEY REGION. SFC DEW POINTS ARE STRUGGLING TO REACH 60F ACROSS
MO/SRN IL AND COMBINED WITH A STRONG CAP THIS DOES NOT BODE WELL FOR
WARM SECTOR TSTM DEVELOPMENT. ALTHOUGH STEEP LAPSE RATES ARE IN
PLACE WEAKER MUCAPE WILL LIKELY LEAD TO WEAKER CONVECTIVE UPDRAFTS.
FOR THIS REASON HAVE OPTED TO LOWER THE THREAT OF SIGNIFICANT SEVERE
HAIL. LATEST VIS SATELLITE IMAGERY EXHIBITS A CONSIDERABLE AMOUNT
OF MID LEVEL CONVECTION ATOP THE CAP FROM ERN IA INTO SRN IND AND
THIS ACTIVITY IS EXPANDING IN AREAL COVERAGE...THROUGH ONLY
SCATTERED SHOWERS ARE ACTUALLY REACHING THE GROUND BENEATH THE
STRONGEST UPDRAFTS. EVEN SO IT APPEARS SUSTAINED SWLY FEED OF WARM
ADVECTION WILL CONTRIBUTE TO ELEVATED THUNDERSTORMS ALONG THE COOL
SIDE OF THE BOUNDARY FROM IL INTO SRN OH/NRN KY. GIVEN THE CAP THIS
MAY TAKE SOME TIME AND CONVECTION SHOULD BE CONCENTRATED DURING THE
OVERNIGHT HOURS RATHER THAN A LATE AFTERNOON SCENARIO.

..DARROW.. 04/25/2012



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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 03:13 PM
Post #32




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ILX AFD

QUOTE
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
227 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 215 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012

18Z ILX SOUNDING CONTINUES TO DEPICT A STRONG CAP IN PLACE ACRS
THE REGION AHEAD OF THE NEXT WEATHER SYSTEM OVER CENTRAL IOWA
EARLY THIS AFTERNOON. WARM FRONT DRAPPING FROM THE LOW OVER IOWA
SE INTO WEST CENTRAL ILLINOIS WILL DRIFT SLOWLY EAST AS THE LOW
SHIFTS INTO CENTRAL IL THIS EVENING. DEW POINTS IN THE MID TO
UPPER 50S... ABOUT 3 TO 6 DEGREES LOWER THAN MODEL FORECASTS...SEEN
OVER WEST CENTRAL THRU SOUTHERN IL JUST SOUTH OF THE WARM FRONT.

SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH SATURDAY NIGHT

FORECAST CHALLENGES THIS PERIOD INCLUDE CONVECTION CHANCES/COVERAGE
THIS EVENING...AND THEN TIMING OF RAIN BACK INTO THE AREA LATE FRI
OR SATURDAY AS SOUTHWEST SYSTEM EJECTS NE INTO THE MIDWEST. WEAK
WAVE NOTED OVER CENTRAL IOWA SHIFTING QUICKLY SOUTHEAST WILL PUSH
ACRS OUR AREA EARLY THIS EVENING. LOW LEVEL CONVERGENCE ALONG THE
FEATURE MAY BREAK THE CAP BUT NOT REAL CONFIDENT ON THAT SCENARIO
BASED ON THE 18Z SOUNDING DATA. IF A STORM CAN BREAK THRU THE
CAP...HAIL AND DAMAGING WINDS WILL BE THE PRIMARY THREAT WITH AN
ISOLD TORNADO A POSSIBILITY CLOSER TO THE WARM FRONT WHICH SHOULD
BE OVER PARTS OF EAST CENTRAL IL EARLY THIS EVENING...HOWEVER WITH
SUCH A SIGNIFICANT AMOUNT OF CIN DEPICTED ACRS THE AREA IN FORECAST
SOUNDINGS...COVERAGE MAY BE HELD BACK QUITE A BIT. HIGHEST POPS...
IN THE SCATTERED CATEGORY...WILL BE ACRS THE EAST AND SOUTHERN AREAS
THIS EVENING...JUST AHEAD OF THE SFC WAVE AND BOUNDARY.

FRONT AND ANY LEFT OVER CONVECTION SHOULD BE OUT OF THE AREA BY
THURSDAY MORNING AS CANADIAN HIGH PRESSURE SETTLES IN FROM THE
NORTH.


And the 18Z sounding mentioned



This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Apr 25 2012, 04:02 PM
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 04:13 PM
Post #33




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Hear some decent thunder off to the north. Looks like something got going on radar, especially so close to the 18Z sounding site. Then of course run of the mill showers to my NW, I'm a storm repellant or something.
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 04:15 PM
Post #34




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1st warning
QUOTE
BULLETIN - IMMEDIATE BROADCAST REQUESTED
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
413 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN LINCOLN HAS ISSUED A

* SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR...
  WESTERN DE WITT COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...
  LOGAN COUNTY IN CENTRAL ILLINOIS...

* UNTIL 500 PM CDT.

* AT 410 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
  SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
  DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH.  THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
  LINCOLN...AND MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

* LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...
  LINCOLN...ATLANTA...MOUNT PULASKI...BEASON...CHESTNUT...
  WAYNESVILLE...LATHAM...LAWNDALE...MIDLAND CITY AND HALLSVILLE.

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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 04:16 PM
Post #35




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Should get an MD shortly
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Juniorrr
post Apr 25 2012, 04:40 PM
Post #36




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MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0585
QUOTE
NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
0436 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012

AREAS AFFECTED...CNTRL IL AND SRN IL...SRN IND...WRN KY

CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY

VALID 252136Z - 252300Z

STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO INCREASE IN COVERAGE OVER THE NEXT FEW
HOURS...WITH MAINLY A HAIL AND WIND THREAT. A WATCH APPEARS LIKELY.

THE 18Z ILX SOUNDING SHOWED STEEP LAPSE RATES ALOFT...BUT STILL
STABLE FOR SURFACE BASED PARCELS. HOWEVER...WHEN MODIFIED FOR
CURRENT CONDITIONS...TEMPERATURES IN THE LOWER 80S F AND DEWPOINTS
APPROACHING 60 F...CIN IS NEARLY GONE. INDEED...STORMS HAVE BEGUN TO
DEVELOP OVER CNTRL IL...NEAR STATIONARY BOUNDARY AND WHERE LOW LEVEL
WARM ADVECTION PERSISTS. THIS INITIAL ACTIVITY ALREADY APPEARS TO
HAVE A HAIL AND WIND THREAT.

WITH STEEP LAPSE RATES AND 50 KT NW ORIENTED DEEP SHEAR...THIS WILL
FAVOR LONG LIVED STORMS...INCLUDING SUPERCELLS AND/OR BOWS. STORM
MODE COULD REMAIN SUPERCELLULAR IF OUTFLOW PRODUCTION IS KEPT
LOW...BUT SOME SWWD PROPAGATION IS POSSIBLE...AND MERGING OUTFLOWS
WOULD RESULT IN MORE OF A WIND THREAT.

THE MAIN DETRIMENT TO TORNADOES WILL BE THE MARGINAL LOW LEVEL
MOISTURE IN RELATION TO RELATIVELY WARM/DRY AIR FROM 850-700 MB AND
MARGINAL LCL HEIGHTS. A ROGUE TORNADO CANNOT BE RULED OUT AS
ACTIVITY CONTINUES TO EVOLVE. THE AREA FROM SRN IL INTO SWRN
IND...NEAR THE BOUNDARY BE MONITORED CLOSELY FOR ANY TORNADO
POTENTIAL.
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NorEaster07
post Apr 25 2012, 04:46 PM
Post #37




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QUOTE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE LINCOLN IL
426 PM CDT WED APR 25 2012

...A SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR WESTERN DE
WITT AND LOGAN COUNTIES UNTIL 500 PM CDT...

AT 419 PM CDT...NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE METEOROLOGISTS DETECTED A
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING QUARTER SIZE HAIL...AND
DAMAGING WINDS IN EXCESS OF 60 MPH. THIS STORM WAS LOCATED NEAR
LINCOLN...MOVING EAST AT 40 MPH.

LOCATIONS IMPACTED INCLUDE...MOUNT PULASKI...BEASON...CHESTNUT...WAYNESVILLE...LATHAM
..MIDLAND CITY AND HALLSVILLE.

NICKEL SIZED HAIL WAS REPORTED WITH THIS STORM IN LINCOLN AT 420 PM
CDT
. 40 MPH WINDS OCCURRED AT THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE OFFICE
JUST EAST OF LINCOLN.


http://www.crh.noaa.gov/product.php?site=i...&glossary=0

0400 PM TSTM WND DMG 1 E NEW HOLLAND 40.18N 89.56W
04/25/2012 LOGAN IL EMERGENCY MNGR

DAMAGE TO A SHED. PIECES BLOWN ACROSS IL ROUTE 10.



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 05:48 PM
Post #38




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From: Springfield, IL
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Looks like that one storm was the appetizer, entree and desert wrapped up in one. Trying to remember when the last time I was in a watch of any kind was, i know we never had any winter watches so guessing last Fall/Summer. Maybe can make it through summer at this rate.
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CIWeather
post Apr 25 2012, 05:51 PM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Apr 25 2012, 05:48 PM) *
Looks like that one storm was the appetizer, entree and desert wrapped up in one. Trying to remember when the last time I was in a watch of any kind was, i know we never had any winter watches so guessing last Fall/Summer. Maybe can make it through summer at this rate.


Yeah...this is unbelievable. dry.gif


--------------------
2012-2013 Fall/Winter Statistics

First Chance of Snow: 11/26/12 (Rain/Snow Mix; First Forecasted on 11/20/12)
First Snowflakes: 11/26/12
First Winter Weather Advisory/Watch/Warning: 12/31/12 (Winter Weather Advisory)
First Winter Storm Watch: 3/22/13
First Winter Storm Warning: 2/21/13 FINALLY!!!
First Blizzard Watch/Warning: 12/20/12
# of Winter Storm Watches: 1
# of Winter Storm Warnings: 1
# of Blizzard Watches/Warnings: 1
First 1" Snowfall: 12/31/12

2013 Severe Weather Statistics

First Risk of Severe Weather:
Slight Risks:
Moderate Risks:
High Risks:

Severe Thunderstorm Watches:
Tornado Watches:
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings:
Tornado Warnings:


April 18-19, 2011: 15-year anniversary of back-to-back tornadoes hitting Decatur, IL.
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WeatherMonger
post Apr 25 2012, 06:13 PM
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QUOTE(CIWeather @ Apr 25 2012, 05:51 PM) *
Yeah...this is unbelievable. dry.gif

Meh, it's actually quite believable, or rather, expected anymore. Unbelivable would be in a watch with a well organized squall line heading in. Last good storm I can remember was last May when we had 1 1/2 - 2" hail and even that was more hail than thunder, lightning or wind. That's the one that sticks out

Waiting for ILX aviation update to come out shortly, although I'm pretty sure I already know what it will hold. Sheesh, now I need a tissue laugh.gif
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