Apr 29-30 MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality: Short Range (0-3 Days Out) Forecasts Options

[NYCSuburbs]

Time to move on to the next one in this suddenly chillier pattern that would've been much more welcome in January rather than the end of April... Probably not looking at any huge storm like yesterday, but still enough to possibly bring moderate rainfall at most. Weak blocking is expected with a strong low in SE Canada resulting in some suppression so that this storm won't track too far north; the main possibilities at this time is either for a non-event, a weak suppressed wave, or a widespread wave with light-moderate rain. Some models try to show snow with this, while this set up would support snow earlier in the season IMO it's too late with not enough cold air to make this a widespread snow event.

[NYCSuburbs]

Funny timing... the 18z GFS that's currently coming out almost has snow



The InstantWeatherMaps snow map actually shows snow

[NYCSuburbs]

I remember OSNW3 mentioned in yesterday's storm thread that this time frame at least according to the LRC may have some similarities to the late October time frame, so I checked the models for this one compared to that storm, and there's some similarities in there. There's also obvious differences like more ridging in Alaska and south central Canada, as well as a stronger SE Canada low and no southern stream s/w, preventing this from being any strong late October nor'easter repeat (which I really wouldn't want anyways), although they're not way different.

Latest GFS for April 28:



October 28, 2011:

[Juniorrr]

Yea like a week before the Oct. Nor'easter there was a negatively tilted storm that pounded the OV/GL similar to yesterday and today's system... hmm I agree this is similar but you never know

And also there was a wave of weak systems prior to Oct. 29 that impacted the OV into the Mid/atl just like models are hinting atm.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Apr 23 2012, 06:16 PM

[LoveNYCSnow]

If only we had this timeframes pattern ONCE all winter, it would have been nice. Like NYCsuburbs said its probably just climatology too warm for snow unless this thing takes a far nothern track and then NNE could see snow but for SNE and def for the MA, climo certainly does not favor this producing any kind of snow.

[NYCSuburbs]

I should follow Fake GFS more frequently

Per contract with EMC, I'm obligated to predict a minimum amount of snow across CONUS. My last few runs are attempts to honor my contract.

[albanyweather]

I should follow Fake GFS more frequently

someone has too much time on their hands.

[LoveNYCSnow]

it really is crazy but the 6z GFS does almost look like a repeat of the last week of October with a storm moving west to east bringing snow to parts of the northeast this weekend and then a potential coastal storm for early next week. It probably won't verify but the similiarities to the last week of October are a bit interesting.

[New England Stor...]

Who would of thought, all the snow storms try to setup out of season. How often do you see somthing like that?

[LoveNYCSnow]

Who would of thought, all the snow storms try to setup out of season. How often do you see somthing like that?

well we don't know if any of this will verify or come close to verifying but the pattern between now and the middle of next week looks by far more promising then anything we saw the entire winter but since it's so late climo speaking, I am very skeptical anything too interesting will happen, if this was even early April I would be a bit more interested in the potential but in late April there really are so many factors going against snow. At least in late October you don't have sun angle issues. The best case scenario this time of year is probably rain on the coast with non accumulating snow inland outside of the mountains which as we saw yesturday can still get significant snow accumulations.

This post has been edited by LoveNYCSnow: Apr 24 2012, 10:54 AM

[LoveNYCSnow]

here we go, hour 96

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M


Hour 108

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M

This is probably snow for Northern PA through interior SNE, but again probably no accumulations outside the mountains.

This post has been edited by LoveNYCSnow: Apr 24 2012, 11:19 AM

[LoveNYCSnow]

That run is close to even ending the NW burbs of NYC as wet snowflakes and then Monday night it gets near Freezing near NYC , very strange Late April .

[Mike W IN herkim...]

Kalb

ECMWF/GFS/GGEM ALL COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A
DEVELOPING WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANY PRECIP
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES
FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN GETTING CLOSE. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE.

NOT MUCH MOVEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DOES
SHOW A DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION AND RAIN TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTH OF
ALBANY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER FOR SUNDAY WITH
LESS OF A NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SO
WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS.

http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

[LoveNYCSnow]

Kalb
http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off

lol no mention of even the possibility of the S word, well I guess they are being conservative based on climo.

[Mike W IN herkim...]

Its to warm for most of kalb cwa to see snow but this would be impressive nonetheless with 30s in the afternoon, almost into may..

[NorEaster07]

trying to get caught up with the latest and...Not again. lol

GFS12z shows snow that far south and East again?

This is a 6 Hour Snowfall total for the 29th.

[SyracuseSnow]

Its to warm for most of kalb cwa to see snow but this would be impressive nonetheless with 30s in the afternoon, almost into may..

Per that run, I think the precip would be falling as snow but clearly not accumulating

[paletitsnow63]

12Z GFS clown map at H114:

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[LoveNYCSnow]

vebatim the 12Z GFS is a widespread non accumulating snow event for Central and Northern PA, SE NY, NW NJ and Interior SNE. The Euro and CMC seem surpressed at this time.

This post has been edited by LoveNYCSnow: Apr 24 2012, 01:57 PM

[jdrenken]

vebatim the 12Z GFS is a widespread non accumulating snow event for Central and Northern PA, SE NY, NW NJ and Interior SNE. The Euro and CMC seem surpressed at this time.

Since it's happening at night...it is accumulating.