Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

5 Pages V   1 2 3 > »   
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> Apr 29-30 MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality: Short Range (0-3 Days Out) Forecasts
NYCSuburbs
post Apr 23 2012, 05:18 PM
Post #1




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,795
Joined: 29-August 08
Member No.: 15,491





Time to move on to the next one in this suddenly chillier pattern that would've been much more welcome in January rather than the end of April... Probably not looking at any huge storm like yesterday, but still enough to possibly bring moderate rainfall at most. Weak blocking is expected with a strong low in SE Canada resulting in some suppression so that this storm won't track too far north; the main possibilities at this time is either for a non-event, a weak suppressed wave, or a widespread wave with light-moderate rain. Some models try to show snow with this, while this set up would support snow earlier in the season IMO it's too late with not enough cold air to make this a widespread snow event.

Attached Image


Attached Image



Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Apr 23 2012, 05:24 PM
Post #2




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,795
Joined: 29-August 08
Member No.: 15,491





Funny timing... the 18z GFS that's currently coming out almost has snow laugh.gif

Attached Image


The InstantWeatherMaps snow map actually shows snow laugh.gif

Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Apr 23 2012, 05:40 PM
Post #3




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,795
Joined: 29-August 08
Member No.: 15,491





I remember OSNW3 mentioned in yesterday's storm thread that this time frame at least according to the LRC may have some similarities to the late October time frame, so I checked the models for this one compared to that storm, and there's some similarities in there. There's also obvious differences like more ridging in Alaska and south central Canada, as well as a stronger SE Canada low and no southern stream s/w, preventing this from being any strong late October nor'easter repeat (which I really wouldn't want anyways), although they're not way different.

Latest GFS for April 28:

Attached Image


October 28, 2011:

Attached Image
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Juniorrr
post Apr 23 2012, 06:13 PM
Post #4




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,819
Joined: 20-February 11
From: Beavercreek, OH
Member No.: 25,413





Yea like a week before the Oct. Nor'easter there was a negatively tilted storm that pounded the OV/GL similar to yesterday and today's system... hmm I agree this is similar but you never know sleep.gif

And also there was a wave of weak systems prior to Oct. 29 that impacted the OV into the Mid/atl just like models are hinting atm.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Apr 23 2012, 06:16 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LoveNYCSnow
post Apr 23 2012, 07:05 PM
Post #5




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 25,904
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Ulster County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





If only we had this timeframes pattern ONCE all winter, it would have been nice. Like NYCsuburbs said its probably just climatology too warm for snow unless this thing takes a far nothern track and then NNE could see snow but for SNE and def for the MA, climo certainly does not favor this producing any kind of snow.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NYCSuburbs
post Apr 23 2012, 07:04 PM
Post #6




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 32,795
Joined: 29-August 08
Member No.: 15,491





I should follow Fake GFS more frequently laugh.gif

QUOTE
Per contract with EMC, I'm obligated to predict a minimum amount of snow across CONUS. My last few runs are attempts to honor my contract.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
albanyweather
post Apr 23 2012, 07:35 PM
Post #7




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,225
Joined: 5-February 09
From: Albany, NY
Member No.: 17,493





QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Apr 23 2012, 08:04 PM) *
I should follow Fake GFS more frequently laugh.gif

someone has too much time on their hands.


--------------------
Winter Advisories: 5
Winter Watch: 5
Winter Warning: 4
Ice Storm Warning: 0
Blizzard Warning: 0


Snowfall 2013-2014: 79"
Snowfall 2012-2013: 48.8"
Snowfall 2011-2012: 23.3"
Snowfall 2010-2011: 80.2"
Snowfall 2009-2010: 49.3"
Seasonal Snowfall Normal: 59.7"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LoveNYCSnow
post Apr 24 2012, 09:49 AM
Post #8




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 25,904
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Ulster County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





it really is crazy but the 6z GFS does almost look like a repeat of the last week of October with a storm moving west to east bringing snow to parts of the northeast this weekend and then a potential coastal storm for early next week. It probably won't verify but the similiarities to the last week of October are a bit interesting.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
New England Stor...
post Apr 24 2012, 10:45 AM
Post #9




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 224
Joined: 25-July 11
From: Halifax Mass
Member No.: 25,837





Who would of thought, all the snow storms try to setup out of season. How often do you see somthing like that?


--------------------
Weather 2012-2013
Oct 28-29 Sandy Gust to 60MPH
Oct 29 Thunder storms
Dec 29 2.8 inch of snow
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LoveNYCSnow
post Apr 24 2012, 10:53 AM
Post #10




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 25,904
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Ulster County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





QUOTE(New England Storm @ Apr 24 2012, 11:45 AM) *
Who would of thought, all the snow storms try to setup out of season. How often do you see somthing like that?


well we don't know if any of this will verify or come close to verifying but the pattern between now and the middle of next week looks by far more promising then anything we saw the entire winter but since it's so late climo speaking, I am very skeptical anything too interesting will happen, if this was even early April I would be a bit more interested in the potential but in late April there really are so many factors going against snow. At least in late October you don't have sun angle issues. The best case scenario this time of year is probably rain on the coast with non accumulating snow inland outside of the mountains which as we saw yesturday can still get significant snow accumulations.

This post has been edited by LoveNYCSnow: Apr 24 2012, 10:54 AM


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LoveNYCSnow
post Apr 24 2012, 11:12 AM
Post #11




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 25,904
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Ulster County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





here we go, hour 96

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M


Hour 108

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M

This is probably snow for Northern PA through interior SNE, but again probably no accumulations outside the mountains.

This post has been edited by LoveNYCSnow: Apr 24 2012, 11:19 AM


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LoveNYCSnow
post Apr 24 2012, 11:27 AM
Post #12




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 25,904
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Ulster County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





That run is close to even ending the NW burbs of NYC as wet snowflakes and then Monday night it gets near Freezing near NYC , very strange Late April blink.gif .


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 24 2012, 11:54 AM
Post #13




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,321
Joined: 17-December 08
From: CNJ
Member No.: 16,547





Kalb

QUOTE
ECMWF/GFS/GGEM ALL COMING INTO BETTER AGREEMENT REGARDING A
DEVELOPING WEST-EAST ORIENTED FRONTAL BOUNDARY THAT WILL SET UP
ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY AND MID ATLANTIC REGION OVER THE WEEKEND. IT
APPEARS SATURDAY WILL BE DRY ACROSS THE AREA WITH ANY PRECIP
SUPPRESSED TO OUR SOUTH AS NORTHWEST FLOW AND RIDGING CONTINUES TO
PREVAIL. WILL ONLY MENTION SLIGHT CHANCE POPS ACROSS SOUTHERN ZONES
FOR NOW TO ACCOUNT FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF RAIN GETTING CLOSE. TEMPS
WILL CONTINUE TO BE ON THE COOL SIDE.



QUOTE
NOT MUCH MOVEMENT WITH THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY EXPECTED TO BE
POSITIONED TO THE SOUTH OF OUR REGION INTO SUNDAY. THE ECMWF DOES
SHOW A DEEPENING OF THE UPPER TROF OVER THE GREAT LAKES AND OHIO
VALLEY WHICH COULD ALLOW FOR DOWNSTREAM AMPLIFICATION AND RAIN TO
SHIFT NORTHWARD INTO OUR REGION. THE BEST CHANCE WILL BE SOUTH OF
ALBANY...ALTHOUGH GUIDANCE HAS BEEN TRENDING DRIER FOR SUNDAY WITH
LESS OF A NORTHWARD PUSH OF THE FRONT AND ASSOCIATED RAINFALL SO
WILL ONLY MENTION LOW CHANCE POPS.




http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?si...p;highlight=off


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LoveNYCSnow
post Apr 24 2012, 12:06 PM
Post #14




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 25,904
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Ulster County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Apr 24 2012, 12:54 PM) *


lol no mention of even the possibility of the S word, well I guess they are being conservative based on climo.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Mike W IN herkim...
post Apr 24 2012, 12:56 PM
Post #15




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 15,321
Joined: 17-December 08
From: CNJ
Member No.: 16,547





Its to warm for most of kalb cwa to see snow but this would be impressive nonetheless with 30s in the afternoon, almost into may..



Attached Image


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
NorEaster07
post Apr 24 2012, 01:32 PM
Post #16




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 11,474
Joined: 10-August 09
From: SW Coastal CT
Member No.: 18,864





trying to get caught up with the latest and...Not again. lol

GFS12z shows snow that far south and East again? rolleyes.gif

This is a 6 Hour Snowfall total for the 29th.

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
SyracuseSnow
post Apr 24 2012, 01:34 PM
Post #17




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,073
Joined: 28-February 08
From: Cicero, NY
Member No.: 14,040





QUOTE(Mike W IN herkimer @ Apr 24 2012, 01:56 PM) *
Its to warm for most of kalb cwa to see snow but this would be impressive nonetheless with 30s in the afternoon, almost into may..

Attached Image

Per that run, I think the precip would be falling as snow but clearly not accumulating


--------------------
KSYR Statistics
Least Snowiest Winter 50.6" (2011-2012)
Snowiest Winter 192.1" (1992-1993)
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
paletitsnow63
post Apr 24 2012, 01:47 PM
Post #18




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,385
Joined: 30-December 08
From: Denver, PA
Member No.: 16,714





12Z GFS clown map at H114:


Attached thumbnail(s)
Attached Image
 
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
LoveNYCSnow
post Apr 24 2012, 01:52 PM
Post #19




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 25,904
Joined: 8-January 09
From: Ulster County, NY
Member No.: 16,816





vebatim the 12Z GFS is a widespread non accumulating snow event for Central and Northern PA, SE NY, NW NJ and Interior SNE. The Euro and CMC seem surpressed at this time.

This post has been edited by LoveNYCSnow: Apr 24 2012, 01:57 PM


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Apr 24 2012, 01:58 PM
Post #20




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 32,966
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Apr 24 2012, 01:52 PM) *
vebatim the 12Z GFS is a widespread non accumulating snow event for Central and Northern PA, SE NY, NW NJ and Interior SNE. The Euro and CMC seem surpressed at this time.


Since it's happening at night...it is accumulating.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

5 Pages V   1 2 3 > » 
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 20th September 2014 - 11:04 PM