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> Apr 29-30 MidAtl/NE Storm, Reality: Short Range (0-3 Days Out) Forecasts
bingobobbo
post Apr 25 2012, 06:34 AM
Post #41




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If we don't get anything out of this system, we will tie our record for least snowy April, a record dating back to 1968 (a much warmer April). We received only a trace of snow from the nor'easter. We still need four more inches of snow to avoid this being our least snowy winter--we've never received a cumulative four inches from this date onward. There is a 98 percent chance this will be our least snowy winter (I say 98 instead of 100 because our mid-spring has been so chilly so far).


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Binghamton--the home of the snow doughnut hole!
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LoveNYCSnow
post Apr 25 2012, 09:35 AM
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Looks like the surpressed solution is winning out as of now with precip on most models making it up to around NYC. We'll see.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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LoveNYCSnow
post Apr 25 2012, 09:50 AM
Post #43




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Storm looks pretty sheared apart on the NAM.


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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NorEaster07
post Apr 25 2012, 10:23 AM
Post #44




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NAM12z Last frame. Poor Henry. lol

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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lmgrnjp
post Apr 25 2012, 10:47 AM
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looks like the maine mountains will get some smile.gif keeping hope alive
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LoveNYCSnow
post Apr 25 2012, 11:10 AM
Post #46




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GFS is gonna be north I think

wow Central PA

http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcont...amp;imageSize=M



This post has been edited by LoveNYCSnow: Apr 25 2012, 11:13 AM


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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lmgrnjp
post Apr 25 2012, 11:12 AM
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QUOTE(LoveNYCSnow @ Apr 25 2012, 12:10 PM) *
GFS is gonna be north I think


im looking at it now not done yet but i got hope... would be awesome if it was like the october storm. i had friends that skied the loaf from the summit to the parkinglot on 15 inches of pow on the top to cement down low... cant wait.
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LoveNYCSnow
post Apr 25 2012, 11:28 AM
Post #48




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QUOTE(lmgrnjp @ Apr 25 2012, 12:12 PM) *
im looking at it now not done yet but i got hope... would be awesome if it was like the october storm. i had friends that skied the loaf from the summit to the parkinglot on 15 inches of pow on the top to cement down low... cant wait.


This storm won't be nearly as strong or dynamic as the October storm. Still, it does have the potential to dump a few inches of wet snow across areas away from the coast especially if it falls at night, mountains could get more. Also the track still hasnt been determined, the further north it tracks the better potential for accumulating snow on the northern edge of the storm.

This post has been edited by LoveNYCSnow: Apr 25 2012, 11:35 AM


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

11/26- Snow to Rain, dusting
12/6- Rain to Sleet to Snow, dusting
12/9- Light Snow to ZR, dusting
12/10- Light Snow, 1 inch
12/14- Snow to sleet, 8.5 inches
12/17- Moderate Snow, 4.5 inches
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grandpaboy
post Apr 25 2012, 01:13 PM
Post #49




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Contrary to what the CMC was showing for the 0z....12z has gone super weak and south with no precip for the area............

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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gulfofslides
post Apr 25 2012, 01:25 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Apr 25 2012, 02:13 PM) *
Contrary to what the CMC was showing for the 0z....12z has gone super weak and south with no precip for the area............

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html

JB's tweet
The GFS has just arrived, keeping late season snow hopes alive, another case of a pa wham.. looking alot like the nam

A bit poetic don't you think? laugh.gif

This post has been edited by gulfofslides: Apr 25 2012, 01:26 PM
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grandpaboy
post Apr 25 2012, 01:34 PM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Apr 25 2012, 02:25 PM) *
JB's tweet
The GFS has just arrived, keeping late season snow hopes alive, another case of a pa wham.. looking alot like the nam

A bit poetic don't you think? laugh.gif



JB is la la land......... dry.gif


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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shane o mac
post Apr 25 2012, 02:24 PM
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Looks like it intesifies a bit as it makes its way towards the maritimes .. Rain for most but maybe northern new brunswick will get some snow ..
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 25 2012, 02:24 PM
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The ECM is still dry, phasing the California s/w not with the large H5 low in SE Canada but with the trough near the NW. It's pretty much the GFS left north, as the NAM is starting to back down from its typically exaggerated hour 60-84 scenarios. I may have to rethink the northern scenario if this trend keeps going, although I'd be fine with that as by now I'm sick of just hearing the word "snow", after a terrible winter the only thing I'm looking forward to is a warm spring and summer, which so far the warmth isn't coming.
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lmgrnjp
post Apr 25 2012, 02:39 PM
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I still think it is going toshift north... The march storm had snow further south this far out and then it shifted north and we got pummeled in maine, And i believe that the October storm was futher south on the models as well and it came north too smile.gif im hoping... i want at least mountain snow for maine so I can hike and ski smile.gif its late in the year i know
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 25 2012, 03:03 PM
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QUOTE(lmgrnjp @ Apr 25 2012, 02:39 PM) *
I still think it is going toshift north... The march storm had snow further south this far out and then it shifted north and we got pummeled in maine, And i believe that the October storm was futher south on the models as well and it came north too smile.gif im hoping... i want at least mountain snow for maine so I can hike and ski smile.gif its late in the year i know

Maine isn't getting snow from this; the snow Maine's getting is from the Thursday-Friday storm. That Thursday storm will then become a strong low in SE Canada so any storm in this time frame will certainly be suppressed, relatively weak (doesn't mean not moist) and fast moving. The October storm shifted north because of the phase; the March 31 storm shifted slightly north as the models overestimated the cold but also ended up weaker and much drier than modeled.

Cases like this one are tricky as the cold could be overdone but the strong low in SE Canada may still keep it suppressed. I also wouldn't trust the NAM at this time range as this season it's had an obvious and bold bias to exaggerate snow totals from storms by showing too much QPF extending too far into the cold. I'm not hoping for any snow in my location, October was way too much for me (4 days of no electricity is more than enough), but even so I don't have too much hope for this to produce any widespread snow in the Northeast; if it snows in the region the wave of low pressure would have to take a northern track, have enough moisture in the cold air, and the snows would be mostly limited to the higher elevations inland. It's possible, but I'm not buying on any widespread snow event out of this.
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Blizz
post Apr 25 2012, 04:04 PM
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Starting to think the 12z GFS had some errors as the Thursday storm is completley different looking than the NAM has... as the GFS takes it south of PA... and then on Sunday it is the northern outlier.

18z NAM just came in and the Thursday storm is moisture for entire PA with the Sunday storm coming farther south and supressed because of the low in Canada.

I really dont see this storm being a wide spread snow maker for anyone.. and im making that prediction now by just looking at the strong low in Canada... the weekend storm will stay supressed and way south with light snows just north of the freezing line (That will depend on the track)

As of now the best area for SEEING snow (didnt say accumulating) would be just north of PA/MD border up to about I 80.


--------------------
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NorEaster07
post Apr 25 2012, 05:14 PM
Post #57




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Just look at that Tounge of cold air aloft.

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Apr 25 2012, 05:24 PM
Post #58




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Even better. Latest GFS18z hour90 Sunday morning. Northern NY, NH & Vermont 6-10 degrees Fahrenheit at 4000' levels.

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Apr 25 2012, 05:58 PM
Post #59




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Minimum temps for this time frame. I havent checked max.

Coldest for GFS on left(Sun. morn). Coldest for NAM on right.(Sat morn)

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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donutvampire
post Apr 25 2012, 06:13 PM
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October 29th and April 29th sounds good to me smile.gif


--------------------
Location: Portland, ME
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