April 27-29 Plains/MW/GL/OV Rain/Snow Storm, Please Post In OBS Thread Options

[The Snowman]

Hard to believe I have to include 'snow' in this topic.
Looks like some snow is on the horizon- 5 day snow forecast


Quick clipper system should swing through and put down some snow. Higher amounts in the Northeast.

5-day QPF


(Note: The 5-day image might be 10:1 ratios, so apologies in advance if that is true)

This post has been edited by The Snowman: Apr 24 2012, 01:26 PM

[wxman1952]

Say it ain't so! Is there any sign of a warm-up for the Great Lakes/Midwest?

[jdrenken]

Say it ain't so! Is there any sign of a warm-up for the Great Lakes/Midwest?

After this system departs, heights will rise and temps respond.

[Juniorrr]

I knew someone from Chicago or S. MI would make a thread for this. Looks like below average temps and chilly rain for my area

[Wild Wisconsin W...]

Hard to believe I have to include 'snow' in this topic.
Looks like some snow is on the horizon- 5 day snow forecast


Quick clipper system should swing through and put down some snow. Higher amounts in the Northeast.

5-day QPF


(Note: The 5-day image might be 10:1 ratios, so apologies in advance if that is true)

I've been waiting for a general thread to be started on this potential, but I thought I would let someone else start it.

[The Snowman]

Okay, quick question for anyone.
On the PoliClimate Snow page, there is a snow depth forecast and the bottom half is the 5 day snow. Is the 5 day snow picture what would fall? Or is that 10:1 ratios, as it appears to say immediately under the snow depth charts?

[USA Weather]

Okay, quick question for anyone.
On the PoliClimate Snow page, there is a snow depth forecast and the bottom half is the 5 day snow. Is the 5 day snow picture what would fall? Or is that 10:1 ratios, as it appears to say immediately under the snow depth charts?

Snowman I really don't know what you are trying to ask. I think you are asking why the snow depth forecast is different than the 10:1 ratio forecast, but if I am wrong correct me. I think the five day snow forecast using 10:1 ratio is exactly what it says. However, and correct me if I'm wrong, I think that the image shows the snow that the model thinks will fall without taking into account snow melt. The snow depth forecast is different as it takes into account the melting of the snow, thus the results will be lower most of the time. I'm not 100% sure myself, but that's what I've always interpreted it as.

[The Snowman]

First realistic forecast I have seen from the PoliClimate 5 day snows.

Attached thumbnail(s)

 

[Stratocumulus]

Sleet or small hail has been falling here in Toledo for the past 15 or 20 minutes. Even a few wet snowflakes look to be mixing in. There's a light accumulation of ice pellets on the deck. Not really showing up on the Accuweather multi-precip type rain.

This post has been edited by Stratocumulus: Apr 28 2012, 10:35 AM

[Stratocumulus]

The Toledo Express Airport is reporting heavy rain & snow mix.

SPECI KTOL 281543Z 11012G15KT 3SM +RASN BKN038 OVC060 03/00 A3022 RMK AO2 RAB12SNB42 P0006

[NorEaster07]

PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE GLASGOW MT

959 AM MDT SAT APR 28 2012

.TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON .DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE. ..REMARKS..

0940 AM SNOW E6.0 INCH

PHILLIPS , MT TRAINED SPOTTER

0955 AM SNOW M6.0 INCH
PHILLIPS MT
CO-OP OBSERVER
STILL SNOWING AT TIME OF REPORT

http://kamala.cod.edu/mt/latest.nwus55.KGGW.html

[NorEaster07]

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BILLINGS MT
913 AM MDT SAT APR 28 2012

MTZ028>042-056>058-063>068-WYZ098-099-291515-
SOUTHERN WHEATLAND-MUSSELSHELL-TREASURE-NORTHERN ROSEBUD-CUSTER-
FALLON-NORTHERN STILLWATER-YELLOWSTONE-POWDER RIVER-CARTER-
SOUTHERN BIG HORN-EASTERN CARBON-NORTHERN PARK-
NORTHERN SWEET GRASS-GOLDEN VALLEY-RED LODGE FOOTHILLS-
NORTHERN BIG HORN-SOUTHERN ROSEBUD-JUDITH GAP-PARADISE VALLEY-
LIVINGSTON AREA-BEARTOOTH FOOTHILLS-ABSAROKA/BEARTOOTH MOUNTAINS-
CRAZY MOUNTAINS-NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS-SHERIDAN FOOTHILLS-
913 AM MDT SAT APR 28 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR PORTIONS OF CENTRAL
MONTANA...SOUTH CENTRAL MONTANA...SOUTHEAST MONTANA AND NORTH
CENTRAL WYOMING.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT

MODERATE TO HEAVY SNOW WITH BLOWING AND DRIFTING SNOW WILL
CONTINUE IN THE CRAZY MOUNTAINS TODAY...AND IN THE
BEARTOOTH/ABSAROKA AND NORTHEAST BIG HORN MOUNTAINS THROUGH LATE
TONIGHT. SNOW ACCUMULATIONS OF 12 TO 16 INCHES CAN BE EXPECTED
FOR THESE AREAS. ELSEWHERE...LOCATIONS ABOVE 4000 FEET IN POWDER
RIVER...SOUTHERN BIG HORN...SOUTHERN ROSEBUD...AND SHERIDAN
COUNTIES WILL ALSO PICK UP 3 TO 7 INCHES OF SNOW ACCUMULATION.
MEANWHILE...WIDESPREAD RAIN IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE REST OF THE
LOWER ELEVATIONS....ALTHOUGH IT WILL MIX WITH OR CHANGE TO SNOW
IN SOME AREAS TONIGHT.

THOSE WITH PLANS IN THE HIGH COUNTRY SHOULD BE PREPARED FOR
WINTER WEATHER CONDITIONS.

This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 28 2012, 11:23 AM

[NorEaster07]

Some Local Storm Reports: 11" just reported at 4500' elevation.



https://nwschat.weather.gov/lsr/#TFX/201204...1204281600/0100

[jdrenken]

Sleet or small hail has been falling here in Toledo for the past 15 or 20 minutes. Even a few wet snowflakes look to be mixing in. There's a light accumulation of ice pellets on the deck. Not really showing up on the Accuweather multi-precip type rain.

I would consider that more of a "graupel" than sleet or hail if there are snowflakes mixed in.