Apr. 27-? Southwest (So. Cal) "May Gray" Pattern, Storm disappoints for most; May Outlook Options

[Beck]

Last night's storm didn't quite live up to predictions of half an inch or more for many areas of Southern California. It was still beneficial, however.

Going forward, we're entering a typical Springtime weather pattern with morning low clouds and fog for inland areas, and a much more persistent marine layer for the coasts. High Pressure will set up camp for this weekend only, then a low pressure trough will keep things mild next week.




According to the Climate Prediction Center, the month of May could go either way in terms of temperatures and precipitation.

This post has been edited by Beck: Apr 29 2012, 02:22 PM

[Jet Developer]

It's time for a lot of boring weather now with the May Gray and June Gloom ahead. Would not be surprised at all though if we have a few more storms throughout May and even early June.

I am hoping for warmer weather and a more active monsoon this summer, but so far there's no signs of that happening.

[Beck]

It's time for a lot of boring weather now with the May Gray and June Gloom ahead. Would not be surprised at all though if we have a few more storms throughout May and even early June.

I am hoping for warmer weather and a more active monsoon this summer, but so far there's no signs of that happening.

The last time we had a dry May was three years ago in 2009. That was also a very warm May, and featured the warmest average low for May here in Temecula with 55.1F. Other dry Mays were also experienced in 2002, 2004 and 2007.

The past two summers featured a pretty active monsoon pattern, despite the overall cooler than normal trend. 2009 featured almost no monsoon at all.

Things could go either way, the way I see it. We could enter a third consecutive year of below normal temperatures this summer, or turn a new leaf and get a warmer than normal summer instead. There's also a chance that we could have a summer with primarily "average" temperatures too, with no dominance of warmth nor cool. That happened in 2008 (July and August).

[Beck]

NWS San Diego Forecast Discussion indicating the return of High Pressure late next week, and plenty of high heat to go with it. Tomorrow will be warm also with highs in the mid-80s inland.

[Jet Developer]

Today was annoying. It started out sunny, then got overcast till mid afternoon, and ended up sunny again. Also the marine layer haze is back.

[Beck]

Today was annoying. It started out sunny, then got overcast till mid afternoon, and ended up sunny again. Also the marine layer haze is back.

I noticed. The San Jacinto Mountains aren't visible anymore this afternoon.

[vb3347]

Perhaps the warmer SST this year will lead to some tropical storm or hurricane remnants impacting us. I think we are overdue for one. Anyone remember Hurricane Nora?

[Beck]

Perhaps the warmer SST this year will lead to some tropical storm or hurricane remnants impacting us. I think we are overdue for one. Anyone remember Hurricane Nora?

I was only 5 years old at that time so I don't remember, but I do remember some wicked lightning storms during September 2005 as a result of remnants from Hurricane Max. I remember school was almost cancelled one morning due to the extreme lightning.

I also remember remnants of Hurricane Dean affecting us in late August 2007. I saw dark-green clouds that afternoon.

[Beck]

Posting Temecula's annual average highs and lows for the past 11 years....just for statistical purposes (and interest):

CODE

ANNUAL AVG HIGHS/LOWS FOR TEMECULA....
2000: 82.1°F/50.5°F
2001: 77.7°F/50.0°F
2002: 77.6°F/49.2°F
2003: 78.1°F/51.2°F
2004: 77.3°F/50.6°F
2005: 76.6°F/51.3°F
2006: 78.2°F/51.1°F
2007: 78.1°F/50.5°F
2008: 79.1°F/50.9°F
2009: 78.5°F/50.4°F
2010: 76.0°F/49.8°F
2011: 76.8°F/49.2°F

The "Normal" average high at this point in time is believed to be 78°F, and the average low 51°F.

[alxz310]

A picturesque evening here in Santa Monica with no low clouds in sight. Tomorrow should be the best day in quite a while with no marine layer expected and temperatures in the mid 70s

[LALEO]

Earthquake! 4.1 in Devore/Crestline Area @ 8:07am. I swear that BIG ONE is close.

This post has been edited by LALEO: Apr 28 2012, 10:23 AM

[FrostFuzz]

Earthquake! 4.1 in Devore/Crestline Area @ 8:07am. I swear that BIG ONE is close.

I felt that one too. Third time this week. Also I don't like the placement it looks like it was on the SA fault, although I am not sure.

[LALEO]

I felt that one too. Third time this week. Also I don't like the placement it looks like it was on the SA fault, although I am not sure.

From the maps I've seen, It looks to be on the San Andreas Fault!

[Jet Developer]

Marine layer south of the border is refusing to burn off. Hope it's not the same here tomorrow.

[alxz310]

Earthquake! 4.1 in Devore/Crestline Area @ 8:07am. I swear that BIG ONE is close.

There was an earthquake? Nothing felt out in the West LA area according to the shaking intensity map, which probably explains that. Correct, it was on the San Andreas fault, but has been downgraded to a 3.8. And let's hope this doesn't mean anything lol

This post has been edited by alxz310: Apr 28 2012, 01:55 PM

[Beck]

Latest 6-10 day outlook from the CPC website:

[vb3347]

Another 4.1 near Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico about an hour ago.

Earthquake! 4.1 in Devore/Crestline Area @ 8:07am. I swear that BIG ONE is close.

Actually, it's better to have many of these small quakes, they help relieve some stress. I am actually more worried about the "big one" when there no fault activity at all.

[Jet Developer]

Wow, water temperature is up to 64 at San Clemente Pier. Could this be a sign of warmer waters and a hotter summer, or is this just temporary before some upwelling brings the water temperatures crashing down into the mid-upper 50s again?

This post has been edited by Jet Developer: Apr 28 2012, 07:09 PM

[LALEO]

Another 4.1 near Guadalupe Victoria, Mexico about an hour ago.
Actually, it's better to have many of these small quakes, they help relieve some stress. I am actually more worried about the "big one" when there no fault activity at all.

In all honesty It really doesn't matter...I think her names Kate Hutton, She's been with the Geological Survey since I was a youngin. Very knowledgeable woman..Anyways, She addressed that misconception of some moderate quakes preventing or atleast weakening the big one when it does strike.

While it is true to some extent, Many don't know the severity of that extent. IIRC, She said in order for smaller to moderate quakes to relieve stress for a big one, There would have to be hundreds of thousands of smaller ones, 2s, 3s, etc. And Tens of thousands of 4s, 5s, (Moderate Quakes) to even minutely relieve enough stress to affect the severity of "The Big One".

This post has been edited by LALEO: Apr 28 2012, 08:59 PM

[Beck]

Wow, water temperature is up to 64 at San Clemente Pier. Could this be a sign of warmer waters and a hotter summer, or is this just temporary before some upwelling brings the water temperatures crashing down into the mid-upper 50s again?

Do you still have those SST maps from earlier?