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> May 2-5 MidAtl/NE Warm Spell, Possibility: Medium Range (4-7 Days)
NYCSuburbs
post Apr 27 2012, 10:24 PM
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Here we go again... it won't be as long lasting as March but it should be widespread with warm temperatures as the pattern continues to evolve into a summer-like pattern. The main limiting factor will be clouds and scattered showers/storms, especially in the Northeast.

Also, notice the Greenland block there - for the first time this season, there's actually a decent chance of a ridge sticking near Greenland. That doesn't do much for cold though, as by this time of the year the teleconnections and thus the Greenland ridge have less of an impact than they would have in January/February for example. By now there could be a strong blocking pattern but with warmth in the Mid Atlantic.

EDIT: Just remembered that we're also entering a more summer-like pattern... with such a warm air mass in place, it wouldn't surprise me if there could be some severe weather in the region.

18z DGEX:

Attached Image


12z ECM 850mb temps:

Attached Image


This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 28 2012, 04:09 PM
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 28 2012, 08:34 AM
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I have some doubts on the extent of the warmth in the Northeast, depending on any back door cold front. The GFS and DGEX show widespread 80s next week, but back door cold fronts typically pop up in these big spring warm spells, and if one does pop up here, it'd probably be on Wednesday as a weak wave of low pressure exits. It's possible it never drops south, leaving NYC and the rest of the Mid Atlantic and parts of SNE very warm with 80s and some 90s from Wed-Fri, but I've frequently seen BDCFs drop south of NYC in spring warm spells, usually leaving at least one or two warm days.

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This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Apr 28 2012, 08:34 AM
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WEATHERFREAK
post Apr 28 2012, 01:46 PM
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The Euro seems to have the best handle(and is most consistent) on what happens in the East next week. With a strong ridge on top of Florida extending as high as the Carolina's/Mid-Atlantic.


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WEATHERFAN100
post Apr 28 2012, 02:09 PM
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Looks like couple of days of low-to-mid 80's for middle next week but then cools back off to 70's...don't think a big warm spell is instore...just a 2-3 day strecht IMO.


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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 28 2012, 02:14 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Apr 28 2012, 03:09 PM) *
Looks like couple of days of low-to-mid 80's for middle next week but then cools back off to 70's...don't think a big warm spell is instore...just a 2-3 day strecht IMO.

Agreed, although I would keep a close eye on the back door cold front on Wednesday... something tells me it will have more of an impact on New England, NYC and NJ (and perhaps PA/NY) than what the latest models show, especially the GFS.
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NorEaster07
post Apr 28 2012, 03:50 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFAN100 @ Apr 28 2012, 03:09 PM) *
Looks like couple of days of low-to-mid 80's for middle next week but then cools back off to 70's...don't think a big warm spell is instore...just a 2-3 day strecht IMO.


I wouldnt't call this a "warm" spell. Temps look to be normal around here near 70. Also, models hinting at another trough so this warm up could just be a temporary thing.

http://forums.accuweather.com/index.php?s=...t&p=1552318



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post Apr 28 2012, 04:23 PM
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Using phone so sorry if its linkless.

I guess we are going above normal.

NWS Albany

QUOTE
AS ALLUDED TO EARLIER...TEMPERATURES WILL RETURN TO NOT ONLY NORMAL LEVELS BUT WILL RISE ABOVE THEM. LOOK FOR HIGHS 60 TO 70 TUESDAY...MID 60S TO MID 70S WEDNESDAY THROUGH FRIDAY. KEEP IN MIND...IF WE WERE TO RECEIVE MORE SUNSHINE THAN CURRENTLY PROJECTING...TEMPERATURES COULD BE EVEN HIGHER...ESPECIALLY ON THURSDAY
.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 28 2012, 04:36 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 28 2012, 05:23 PM) *
Using phone so sorry if its linkless.

I guess we are going above normal.

NWS Albany

.

The main issue for New Jersey, NYC and New England though is the back door cold front coming through on Wednesday. I'm thinking that the GFS is underestimating this, as it typically does in spring warm spells; western NY, most of PA, and the Mid Atlantic should be fine in terms of warmth, but around here the limiting factor in addition to the clouds and showers will be the BDCF, likely leaving us with 60s to mid 70s and perhaps one day of 80 or more degrees depending on the warm sector.
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 30 2012, 06:00 PM
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DGEX still sticks with 90 degrees up to NYC on Friday... the NYC part is probably an exaggeration although as long as there's enough sunshine with SW winds, 80s can easily be reached.


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New England Stor...
post Apr 30 2012, 07:02 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Apr 30 2012, 07:00 PM) *
DGEX still sticks with 90 degrees up to NYC on Friday... the NYC part is probably an exaggeration although as long as there's enough sunshine with SW winds, 80s can easily be reached.


Attached Image


It would be amazing if that came to be, although this is the DGEX.


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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 30 2012, 07:40 PM
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QUOTE(New England Storm @ Apr 30 2012, 08:02 PM) *
It would be amazing if that came to be, although this is the DGEX.

It's close enough to the NAM's range to have only little influence from the GFS added data, so technically it's what the NAM would show if it was extended by another 12 hours. The GFS is also warm, not to the extent of the DGEX but that can be understood as when it has the right scenario (does not apply to every case, but ONLY when it has the right scenario), it underestimatest temperatures in warm spells. The CMC is a bit cooler and the ECM is on the cooler side as well. Typically, the GFS and DGEX overdo warmth, so that's something to watch.
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NorEaster07
post Apr 30 2012, 09:22 PM
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Friday still seems to be the warmest day.

This is the max from GFS18z. NAM still not in range.. Maybe Add a few degrees to this since this is for 8pm timeframe.


Attached Image


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Apr 30 2012, 09:23 PM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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mppy
post Apr 30 2012, 09:28 PM
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This is just pathetic. The mid-atlantic gets a week of 70's and 80's and we're stuck with low to mid 50's, clouds, and scattered showers. Spring is THE worst time of year in New England.
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 30 2012, 09:54 PM
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QUOTE(mppy @ Apr 30 2012, 10:28 PM) *
This is just pathetic. The mid-atlantic gets a week of 70's and 80's and we're stuck with low to mid 50's, clouds, and scattered showers. Spring is THE worst time of year in New England.

This season is going to be even more pathetic than a typical spring due to the blocking in Greenland, that out of ANY possible month from November until April, just happened to develop in May... the Mid Atlantic will have its share of warmth, with a few brief yet strong surges of warmth in New England as well (as may happen on Friday/Saturday), but I would think that during this warm spell and throughout most of May as well, back door cold fronts could make more frequent appearances.
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NYCSuburbs
post Apr 30 2012, 09:55 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Apr 30 2012, 10:22 PM) *
Friday still seems to be the warmest day.

This is the max from GFS18z. NAM still not in range.. Maybe Add a few degrees to this since this is for 8pm timeframe.


Attached Image

Tomorrow's going to be quite warm as well - the NAM keeps trending warmer, in places that break into the warm sector up to the north/east suburbs of NYC temperatures could surge well into the 70s, with 80s along I-95 into Philly and possibly just SW of NYC. Just yesterday the models barely even showed NYC breaking 65 degrees. FWIW, the NAM also has scattered storms in northern NJ tomorrow evening once temperatures warm up.
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justintime2989
post May 1 2012, 03:31 AM
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besides temps getting nicer with it getting warmer. there is chance of severe weather if look at gfs with cape near 2000-3000 range and lift near -7 - -8 only thing lacking is shear which vitually none exsistent.
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NYCSuburbs
post May 1 2012, 05:23 AM
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NAM shows highs getting to 80 degrees all the way up to NE NJ today... I hope that happens, with the BDCF and the offshore cutoff low our only noticeably warm day in NYC, Friday, is starting to look questionable as well. This is how a cutoff ruins what was originally shown to be a 5-day warm spell to just 60s, a few 70s, and endless clouds and scattered showers.

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enigmamj
post May 1 2012, 06:09 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ May 1 2012, 05:23 AM) *
NAM shows highs getting to 80 degrees all the way up to NE NJ today... I hope that happens, with the BDCF and the offshore cutoff low our only noticeably warm day in NYC, Friday, is starting to look questionable as well. This is how a cutoff ruins what was originally shown to be a 5-day warm spell to just 60s, a few 70s, and endless clouds and scattered showers.


Down here in Virginia we will be quite warm. 85-90 degrees for me through this weekend. Tomorrow storms may limit temps some, but friday and saturday will be dry.
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psu1313
post May 1 2012, 08:06 AM
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QUOTE(enigmamj @ May 1 2012, 07:09 AM) *
Down here in Virginia we will be quite warm. 85-90 degrees for me through this weekend. Tomorrow storms may limit temps some, but friday and saturday will be dry.


I'm not sure i'd go 85-90 but definitely near or above 80 all week. Today we probably get in the low 80's, tomorrow can be limited a bit by some Thunderstorms and you need to look where the wind is coming from, it's not from the south like you'd think. Thus, 80 is probably a good number tomorrow. Friday will be the big day for the heat because everything looks to be pretty optimal and Saturday could bring some more Thunderstorm chances.
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d-_-b
post May 1 2012, 10:38 AM
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What is the probability of finally getting a below average temp month here in the NE? April was the 10th consecutive above average month for my area. Out of those 10, the last 6 have been Much Above Average.

This post has been edited by d-_-b: May 1 2012, 10:39 AM


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