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> May 2-3 Mid-Atl/NE Severe Weather, SPC Risk Level: Day 2 Slight Risk Forecasts and OBS
WEATHERFAN100
post May 1 2012, 03:09 PM
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Opening a thread for tomorrows severe weather potential. SPC has issued a slight risk for western PA/NY and parts of Central PA down through Southern Mid-Atlantic.

Latest day 2 outlook:
Attached Image


And discussion:
QUOTE
...SOUTHERN GREAT LAKES INTO THE NORTHERN MID ATLANTIC STATES...
WEAK SHORT WAVE IMPULSES PROGRESSING THROUGH 20-40 KT WEST
NORTHWESTERLY FLOW...AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF SUBTROPICAL RIDGING
...MAY PROVIDE SUPPORT FOR THE EVOLUTION OF A COUPLE OF ORGANIZED
STORM CLUSTERS. MOISTURE APPEARS LIKELY TO BE SUFFICIENT TO SUPPORT
AT LEAST MODERATELY LARGE MIXED LAYER CAPE ON THE ORDER OF
1000-2000+ J/KG...CONTRIBUTING TO A RISK FOR SEVERE STORMS CAPABLE
OF GENERATING POTENTIALLY DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND SOME HAIL.


--------------------
-James
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NorEaster07
post May 1 2012, 04:01 PM
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This morning New Rochelle NY(on the coast) heard some loud thunder but just 25 minutes up the line on the CT coast there was nothing. Let the bubble line begin. Lol.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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justintime2989
post May 1 2012, 04:36 PM
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yea last night had a weak storm few rumbles of thunder with some lightning. and while trying to sleep one very close strike that lit up whole room and thunder one second later.
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NYCSuburbs
post May 1 2012, 04:46 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ May 1 2012, 05:01 PM) *
This morning New Rochelle NY(on the coast) heard some loud thunder but just 25 minutes up the line on the CT coast there was nothing. Let the bubble line begin. Lol.

For once, the heaviest part of the T-storm actually stalled over me. Hopefully the beginning of the end of the bubble? laugh.gif
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gulfofslides
post May 1 2012, 05:11 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ May 1 2012, 05:46 PM) *
For once, the heaviest part of the T-storm actually stalled over me. Hopefully the beginning of the end of the bubble? laugh.gif

We got good rain here for once more than forecasted. I hope this is the beginning of a trend
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NYCSuburbs
post May 1 2012, 05:53 PM
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Something interesting for this stormy period is the RUC upgrade... the old RUC was finally replaced by the new RAP (which I assume is also the RR) model. I created a thread on it in the Weather Questions & Info forum. As a result, Twisterdata also extended the RAP graphics to 18 hours as opposed to the old RUC going to 12 hours.
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yankees
post May 2 2012, 05:54 AM
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Attached Image


QUOTE
A MOIST AND UNSTABLE WARM SECTOR WILL PERSIST SOUTH OF THE FRONT
FROM THE PLAINS EWD THROUGH THE OH VALLEY WITH THE STRONGER
INSTABILITY EXPECTED OVER THE PLAINS AND MS VALLEY REGION WHERE
STEEPER LAPSE RATES WILL RESIDE. ONGOING CONVECTION AND UNCERTAINTY
REGARDING TIMING OF INDIVIDUAL IMPULSES LOWERS OVERALL CONFIDENCE IN
THIS FCST. HOWEVER...STORMS WILL LIKELY REDEVELOP ALONG OLD OUTFLOW
BOUNDARIES AND IN VICINITY OF THE E-W FRONT. THUNDERSTORM COVERAGE
WILL LIKELY BE HIGHER FROM THE UPPER MS VALLEY INTO THE OH VALLEY
WHERE WEAKER CAP SHOULD EXIST...BUT VERTICAL SHEAR WILL ALSO WEAKER
SUPPORTING MAINLY MULTICELLS WITH A THREAT OF ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND
AND HAIL. FARTHER WEST INTO IA AND ERN NEB...THUNDERSTORM INITIATION
AND COVERAGE REMAINS MORE UNCERTAIN...BUT INSTABILITY AND SHEAR WILL
BE STRONGER IN THIS REGION. POTENTIAL WILL EXIST FOR STORMS TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE FRONT DURING THE AFTERNOON AND POSSIBLY NORTH OF
THE FRONT OVERNIGHT AS THE LLJ INCREASES. PRIMARY THREATS WILL BE
ISOLATED DAMAGING WIND AND LARGE HAIL.

http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html


--------------------
Summer Weather Safety
Summer is here and here are some tips to stay safe

Severe Weather
http://www.nws.noaa.gov/om/severeweather/index.shtml

Heat Safety
http://nws.noaa.gov/os/heat/index.shtml

09-10 43.5 inches ( Newly Updated from 39 inches)
10-11 60.5 inches
11-12 21 inches
12-13 45.5 inches
13-14 57 inches
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NYCSuburbs
post May 2 2012, 06:00 AM
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QUOTE(yankees @ May 2 2012, 06:54 AM) *

Attached Image



http://www.spc.noaa.gov/products/outlook/day3otlk.html

I highly doubt the 5% actually ends up verifying in NJ and further east. The air mass is mostly stable as we're (as usual) stuck in the back door cold front zone.
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NorEaster07
post May 2 2012, 06:52 AM
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Current Radar and Current Temps

Attached Image


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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NorEaster07
post May 2 2012, 06:54 AM
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5:30am - 7:30am Radar Loop.



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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psu1313
post May 2 2012, 10:00 AM
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Let's play a game...find the front!
Attached image(s)
Attached Image
 
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beninbaltimore
post May 2 2012, 12:45 PM
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It's currently around 65 here in Baltimore as we haven't made it out of the marine layer yet.


--------------------
You can lead a horse to water but a pencil must be lead. - Stan Laurel
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grandpaboy
post May 2 2012, 12:51 PM
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QUOTE(beninbaltimore @ May 2 2012, 01:45 PM) *
It's currently around 65 here in Baltimore as we haven't made it out of the marine layer yet.



65 is balmy...........


Attached Image


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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beninbaltimore
post May 2 2012, 01:58 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ May 2 2012, 12:51 PM) *
65 is balmy...........
Attached Image


wanna trade? I'm already hating the humidity here


--------------------
You can lead a horse to water but a pencil must be lead. - Stan Laurel
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heatburst
post May 2 2012, 02:02 PM
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Starting to see some vertical CU growth along differential heating boundary in VA ahead of s/w in WV. Could be the start to a few severe storms in the Mid Atlantic.


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WEATHERFAN100
post May 2 2012, 02:53 PM
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SPC has introduced a 5% SEE TEXT over the region at this time. Should we extend the 4th in this thread or make new thread for Friday's potential?


--------------------
-James
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NYCSuburbs
post May 2 2012, 04:40 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ May 2 2012, 07:00 AM) *
I highly doubt the 5% actually ends up verifying in NJ and further east. The air mass is mostly stable as we're (as usual) stuck in the back door cold front zone.

My mistake... I thought that map was for today... that's what a 2th consecutive day of very little sleep does laugh.gif

The thread should be extended into the 4th, perhaps the 5th as well for southern areas.
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heatburst
post May 2 2012, 08:48 PM
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All you need to know about Severe Weather Friday for E PA/SE NY/NJ/MD/DC/DE/VA

Link above goes into detail on the current situation and how it impacts the chances for severe weather Friday. This has high bust potential as we could be talking about an iso tor threat/winds/hail or northing come Friday afternoon depending on timing and location of the impulse highlighted.


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WEATHERFAN100
post May 2 2012, 10:26 PM
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Nice to see some severe weather reports in the PA/NY/MD region!
Attached Image

Solid line was severe for some time, now no warnings on it, but packing some heavy rains im sure.


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-James
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Mike W IN herkim...
post May 2 2012, 10:42 PM
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Very heavy rain with a rumble of thunder..ATM

This post has been edited by Mike W IN herkimer: May 2 2012, 10:42 PM


--------------------

western monmouth county avg snowfall 27"-30"

Last 6 yr avg snowfall 46.5"

Freehold boro snowfall
2008 - 2009: 26.8"
2009 - 2010: 74.2"
2010 - 2011: 61.1"
2011 - 2012: 8.5"
2012 - 2013: 38.2"
2013 - 2014: 72.0"


Monthly rainfall

April: 5.96"
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