May 8-9 Mid Atl/NE Severe Weather, Day 3 Spc Level: "SEE TEXT" Forecasts and OBS Options

[WEATHERFAN100]

I think this time period will feature more of a moderate rain threat than a organized widespread severe threat but the spc has issued a "SEE TEXT" area for Tuesday (Day 3).

Western/ West Central PA is under a slight risk/see text respectively for tomorrow (Monday, Day 2) so if the thread needs to include tomorrow please extend the dates.

This post has been edited by WEATHERFAN100: May 6 2012, 10:49 AM

[WEATHERFAN100]

NWS State College HWO:

HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STATE COLLEGE PA
301 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

PAZ004>006-010>012-017>019-024>028-033>037-041-042-045-046-049>053-
056>059-063>066-070715-
WARREN-MCKEAN-POTTER-ELK-CAMERON-NORTHERN CLINTON-CLEARFIELD-
NORTHERN CENTRE-SOUTHERN CENTRE-CAMBRIA-BLAIR-HUNTINGDON-MIFFLIN-
JUNIATA-SOMERSET-BEDFORD-FULTON-FRANKLIN-TIOGA-NORTHERN LYCOMING-
SULLIVAN-SOUTHERN CLINTON-SOUTHERN LYCOMING-UNION-SNYDER-MONTOUR-
NORTHUMBERLAND-COLUMBIA-PERRY-DAUPHIN-SCHUYLKILL-LEBANON-CUMBERLAND-
ADAMS-YORK-LANCASTER-
301 AM EDT SUN MAY 6 2012

THIS HAZARDOUS WEATHER OUTLOOK IS FOR CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA.

.DAY ONE...TODAY AND TONIGHT.

NO HAZARDOUS WEATHER IS EXPECTED AT THIS TIME.

.DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY.

A SLOW MOVING COLD FRONT WILL PUSH EAST ACROSS PENNSYLVANIA
TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT. RAIN AND SCATTERED THUNDERSTORMS...
ALONG AND IN ADVANCE OF THE FRONT...WILL BRING A GENERAL 1 TO 1.5
INCHES OF RAIN TO CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA DURING THE EARLY TO MID-
WEEK PERIOD. THIS AMOUNT OF RAIN WILL CREATE MODERATE RISES ON
SMALL STREAMS AND CREEKS...HOWEVER NO FLOODING IS ANTICIPATED AT
THIS TIME. IN ADDITION...A FEW OF THE STRONGER THUNDERSTORMS COULD
PRODUCE LOCALLY STRONG GUSTY WINDS AND HAIL ACROSS THE WESTERN
MOUNTAINS LATE MONDAY AND MONDAY NIGHT...AND OVER THE REST OF
CENTRAL PENNSYLVANIA TUESDAY AFTERNOON AND EVENING.

http://www.srh.noaa.gov/productview.php?pil=HWOCTP

This post has been edited by WEATHERFAN100: May 6 2012, 10:57 AM

[NYCSuburbs]

I think this time period will feature more of a moderate rain threat than a organized widespread severe threat but the spc has issued a "SEE TEXT" area for Tuesday (Day 3).

Western/ West Central PA is under a slight risk/see text respectively for tomorrow (Monday, Day 2) so if the thread needs to include tomorrow please extend the dates.

Not that this will be any widespread severe storm outbreak, but I'd expect to see at least widespread thunder action in addition to the rain, with locally strong/severe storms possible as well (as in a low-end slight risk, not too many reports). There's decent shear towards mid-day Tuesday as well as some marginally -LI/CAPE to provide a risk of isolated storms. Parameters aren't very impressive, but should lead to at least widespread thunderstorm activity as most of the region is in the warm sector, with widespread rain/scattered storms forming on Wednesday as well at least according to every model except the ECM. Locally heavy rain is the main risk but windy conditions appear likely as well, especially on Tuesday with a strong south wind.

EDIT: I would extend it to include tomorrow as well as scattered storms enter W PA tomorrow evening, with thunderstorms also possible for some areas on Monday night/early Tuesday morning.

This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: May 6 2012, 11:26 AM

[WEATHERFAN100]

Not that this will be any widespread severe storm outbreak, but I'd expect to see at least widespread thunder action in addition to the rain, with locally strong/severe storms possible as well (as in a low-end slight risk, not too many reports). There's decent shear towards mid-day Tuesday as well as some marginally -LI/CAPE to provide a risk of isolated storms. Parameters aren't very impressive, but should lead to at least widespread thunderstorm activity as most of the region is in the warm sector, with widespread rain/scattered storms forming on Wednesday as well at least according to every model except the ECM. Locally heavy rain is the main risk but windy conditions appear likely as well, especially on Tuesday with a strong south wind.

EDIT: I would extend it to include tomorrow as well as scattered storms enter W PA tomorrow evening, with thunderstorms also possible for some areas on Monday night/early Tuesday morning.

I agree general thunderstorms highly likely with locally stronger storms possible in the more "favorable" area. Someone should make a "storm" thread for this time period for the rainfall part of this system.