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> LRC 2012-2013, Interest Is Growing!
The Snowman
post Jan 17 2013, 07:15 PM
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Looks like this will be a great test between two indices: the Siberian snow cover theory (supports solid -AO for Feb.) and the LRC (appears to show very warm GL). Will be very interesting to see how this turns out.


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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jdrenken
post Jan 17 2013, 07:56 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jan 17 2013, 06:15 PM) *
Looks like this will be a great test between two indices: the Siberian snow cover theory (supports solid -AO for Feb.) and the LRC (appears to show very warm GL). Will be very interesting to see how this turns out.


A -AO does not lock in a cold pattern. It goes deeper than that like always!

Say we have a -PNA develop with a -AO....guess where then cold is going to go?


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OSNW3
post Jan 17 2013, 11:00 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jan 17 2013, 06:15 PM) *
Looks like this will be a great test between two indices: the Siberian snow cover theory (supports solid -AO for Feb.) and the LRC (appears to show very warm GL). Will be very interesting to see how this turns out.


A good analog may be two cycles ago ("every other" cycle). Run through the October 500s. Then glance at the first half of the November 500s. What do you see? Calendar

I agree, it will be interesting to see how this cycle acts with the mid winter jet.

Can't wait!

The "every other" cycle thought is almost perfection. Extend it out a day or two for model quickness.

Oct 14, 2012


Jan 25, 2013 (Jan 17, 18Z GFS, 177HR)


This post has been edited by OSNW3: Jan 17 2013, 11:02 PM


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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 18 2013, 09:41 AM
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all i know is i want the Christmas week/week after repeated cycle back dry.gif
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Juniorrr
post Jan 18 2013, 09:33 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jan 18 2013, 09:41 AM) *
all i know is i want the Christmas week/week after repeated cycle back dry.gif

Same here. I'll be waiting for that cycle if it shows up again xD


--------------------
Snowfall to date
12/13/16 - 5"
1/5/17 - 3"
1/27/17 - 0.25" dusting
2/8/17 - 1.25"
3/13/17 - just about 1.0"
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 19 2013, 10:22 AM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Jan 18 2013, 09:33 PM) *
Same here. I'll be waiting for that cycle if it shows up again xD

should be the historically classic V-day timeframe
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jdrenken
post Jan 21 2013, 12:18 PM
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More murky signals in the lr with strong systems staying below 50N and too far West.
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WeatherMonger
post Jan 21 2013, 07:43 PM
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Am I on the right track? Looking forward to February and hoping for the NW trends laugh.gif just wanting to make sure I'm following along for selfish purposes.

Then, December cycle to which I said, in reference to someone in IA. Think it ended up even further northwest

QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Dec 5 2012, 10:41 AM) *
I'll trade locations with you, I think you'll be happy come this time next week. I'll hope for the southeast shift nearer to late January/ground hog's day


Upcoming long range thread

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Wild Wisconsin W...
post Jan 22 2013, 11:54 AM
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QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ Jan 21 2013, 06:43 PM) *
Am I on the right track? Looking forward to February and hoping for the NW trends laugh.gif just wanting to make sure I'm following along for selfish purposes.

Then, December cycle to which I said, in reference to someone in IA. Think it ended up even further northwest
Upcoming long range thread


The system for mid-late next week would correlate nicely with the system that affected the Twin Cities with over a foot of snow on December 9th, given the likely cycle length in the 50-52 day range.
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OSNW3
post Jan 23 2013, 12:20 PM
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Majority of people who watch the cycling weather patterns do not often exploit them when the use of them fails. I am in a position of experimentation and examination. Personally I want to see it both succeed and fail. The theory is not linear and that simple fact is blatantly obvious beginning day two of the quest to keep up.

A Quick Rant - When Use Of The Theory Fails

And with that said, when is a good storm chase day coming up?! Too Early To Make Predictions For Spring Storm Outbreaks? wink.gif


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jdrenken
post Jan 23 2013, 03:10 PM
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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






Organicforecasting Blog
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89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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The Snowman
post Jan 23 2013, 06:33 PM
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Wondering if the Dec. 10-11 system correlates with the 18z GFS' Feb. 1-3 system. I have maps on this link of both events, the 500mb heights are pretty darn similar.

Also, the dates may be a little short or little long in length between the two sets of dates, I'm rushed for time on this post.

Link

This post has been edited by The Snowman: Jan 23 2013, 06:34 PM


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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OSNW3
post Jan 24 2013, 12:21 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jan 23 2013, 05:33 PM) *
Wondering if the Dec. 10-11 system correlates with the 18z GFS' Feb. 1-3 system. I have maps on this link of both events, the 500mb heights are pretty darn similar.


Your comparison seems reasonable. Run with it.
I correlated the 500mb maps of 10/17, 12/9, 1/30 (1/24 12Z GFS 138hrs ish)

QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jan 23 2013, 05:33 PM) *
Also, the dates may be a little short or little long in length between the two sets of dates, I'm rushed for time on this post.


Don't rush the theory. LOL


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jdrenken
post Jan 25 2013, 01:29 PM
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Gary Lezak's latest venture.


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It's a work in progress!

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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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RobB
post Jan 25 2013, 01:59 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 25 2013, 01:29 PM) *
Gary Lezak's latest venture.


Thanks man....

Lezak reminds me in looks of a younger Joe Bastardi.....
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jdrenken
post Jan 27 2013, 12:14 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Oct 7 2012, 03:49 PM) *
As I warned a few ppl, keep an eye on the blocking showing up in the wrong places...again. The EPO will be key.

Two phrases we got tired of last year...

1.Progressive
2.Gulf of Alaksa

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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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The Snowman
post Jan 27 2013, 11:40 AM
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December 21 is correlating with the 0z GFS forecast on Feb. 10. The solution would bring accumulating snow to the MW/GL/OV/Mid-Atlantic if this particular forecast verifies (and we all know how that may turn out).

Link to some of the maps showing the correlation


--------------------
Annual Snowfall

2014-2015: 46"
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


Groundhog Day Blizzard 2011: 24"
Super Bowl Sunday Blizzard 2015: 18"
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OSNW3
post Jan 27 2013, 12:10 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jan 27 2013, 10:40 AM) *
December 21 is correlating with the 0z GFS forecast on Feb. 10. The solution would bring accumulating snow to the MW/GL/OV/Mid-Atlantic if this particular forecast verifies (and we all know how that may turn out).


Indeed. The "Sandy" part of the cycle. Models probably a day or so early. In your blog post you should reference the hurricane and subsequent super storm providing your readers a deeper aspect of the theory (LRC) / intraseasonal oscillation (ISO).

It is fun reading others interpretations of the cycle. Enjoy!

This pattern will be talked about to an extreme level by all who follow the cycle.


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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 27 2013, 01:55 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jan 27 2013, 11:40 AM) *
December 21 is correlating with the 0z GFS forecast on Feb. 10. The solution would bring accumulating snow to the MW/GL/OV/Mid-Atlantic if this particular forecast verifies (and we all know how that may turn out).

Link to some of the maps showing the correlation

u must be referencing this monster
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jdrenken
post Jan 27 2013, 05:56 PM
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Watch mid-month. This system is weakening as it enters the Bering Sea.
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Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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