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> Long Range Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
Juniorrr
post Jul 12 2013, 10:08 PM
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Another look


--------------------
Nov.15-17: 5"
2014-2015 total snowfall TD: 5"
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dab719
post Jul 13 2013, 10:27 AM
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Wouldn't the current horseshoe in SST's off New England be contrary
to what the CFSv2 is showing? I know winter is a long way off
and the long range will change many times but just trying to understand
the SST horseshoe effect on the NAO....
Anyone know if the PDO will spike and drop towards the fall.
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The Snowman
post Jul 13 2013, 02:23 PM
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QUOTE(dab719 @ Jul 13 2013, 10:27 AM) *
Wouldn't the current horseshoe in SST's off New England be contrary
to what the CFSv2 is showing? I know winter is a long way off
and the long range will change many times but just trying to understand
the SST horseshoe effect on the NAO....
Anyone know if the PDO will spike and drop towards the fall.

The CFS image shows temperatures 2m above the surface, not actual SST anomalies (although one can see a similarity between the two). The SST horseshoe theory is most telling in the fall season, while the consequences of the observed SST pattern occurring in the winter season, for which the CFS image is valid for. I haven't been looking around at other fall SST forecasts other than the UKMET forecast a page back, so I can't say what the consensus is on the fall SST pattern come fall.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 2.0" (Updated 11/21/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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dab719
post Jul 13 2013, 03:27 PM
Post #104




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In terms of SST, if the horseshoe is negative surrounding a positive
area it states that that would favor a positive NAO. The CFSv2 is
showing negative temp departures across the East which would indicate
a predominant negative NAO. Thus they are conflicting with each other.
The long term models will change many times between then.
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The Snowman
post Jul 13 2013, 03:51 PM
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Important note to those concerned about the idea of a +QBO this winter: The QBO was more negative (supportive of a weak polar vortex) at the 30mb level in 2011-2012 than this past winter, yet the polar vortex was locked up tight for the winter of 2011-2012. Goes to show that the QBO is not the sole driver of winter weather.

Be mindful, in addition to the QBO, we have (among other variables)...

-PDO
-ENSO
-AMO
-NAO
-AO
-PNA
-October NH Snowfall trends
-EPO
-WPO
-MJO
-GWO
-AAM
-Various torques

So many factors able to overcome one another and be overcome by one another.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 2.0" (Updated 11/21/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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The Snowman
post Jul 15 2013, 01:46 PM
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Some good news for those concerned about the +NAO discovered this past June. I ran a correlation chart between DJF temperatures and the NAO in the JJA period. As is shown below, there is a negative correlation between the NAO in JJA and temperatures in DJF. That said, this correlation does not work 100% of the time, but may ease some fears held by those who have seen the positive NAO in the month of June.



--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 2.0" (Updated 11/21/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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UFASUPERSTORM
post Jul 15 2013, 01:50 PM
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Another factor that could possibly effect this winter is 80 north and above is having the coldest summer on record.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php
Attached File(s)
Attached File  meanT_2013.png ( 5.6K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  meanT_2013__1_.png ( 103.8K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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The Snowman
post Jul 15 2013, 04:20 PM
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QUOTE(UFASUPERSTORM @ Jul 15 2013, 01:50 PM) *
Another factor that could possibly effect this winter is 80 north and above is having the coldest summer on record.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php

The closest year with a similar temperature at this time of year was during 2009- every other year back to 1958 has been warmer than what we are experiencing now.

Adding on to the Arctic gist, I reviewed a few years that matched up well with the amount of sea ice we are currently seeing. These years were 2005, 2006, 2008 and 2009. I took those four years and created composites for the whole of their winters. Precipitation, temperature and 500mb anomaly charts are posted below.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  sea_ice_analog_500mb.png ( 11.89K ) Number of downloads: 6
Attached File  sea_ice_analog_temp.png ( 121.98K ) Number of downloads: 4
Attached File  Sea_ice_analog_precip.png ( 125.78K ) Number of downloads: 7
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 2.0" (Updated 11/21/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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grace
post Jul 16 2013, 12:05 AM
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QUOTE(UFASUPERSTORM @ Jul 15 2013, 01:50 PM) *
Another factor that could possibly effect this winter is 80 north and above is having the coldest summer on record.

http://ocean.dmi.dk/arctic/meant80n.uk.php


This is pretty amazing really. I'm surprised there hasn't been a lot said about it. If you check those graphs all the way back to 1958 you'll be hard pressed to find a longer stretch of consecutive days of below normal temps. And you'll really be hard pressed to find a colder summer. Remarkable!!

Not sure about he why or the implications of it but it's pretty remarkable.

This post has been edited by grace: Jul 16 2013, 12:05 AM
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The Snowman
post Jul 16 2013, 12:53 PM
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I happened upon a correlation between the June-July-August Arctic Oscillation and the December-January-February 500mb heights in the winter after the JJA period. As the image below shows, there is a negative correlation between JJA AO values and what would appear to be DJF AO and NAO values?? Regardless of which indices it affects, the negative correlation is certainly present in the Arctic Circle.

Because we are only in the middle of July, the only value we have access to is the June AO index. The June AO value was observed to be at 0.549. Going by this negative correlation, we could be expecting a trend towards a negative AO come winter.

However, recall that a study I presented last week on this thread favored a positive AO this winter, adding to the confusion that can be caused if we take into account all of these studies/correlations. Just take each one for what it's worth. It is important to note there is a positive correlation between June AO values and December 500mb anomalies (though the positive correlation is rather weak), and the only month which defines this negative correlation is February.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  64.53.178.223.196.11.45.16.gif ( 17.64K ) Number of downloads: 1
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 2.0" (Updated 11/21/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jul 16 2013, 08:08 PM
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What's this about a gfs upgrade? Hopefully its nothing like the cmc upgrade wacko.gif

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Jul 16 2013, 08:10 PM
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The Snowman
post Jul 16 2013, 09:44 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jul 16 2013, 08:08 PM) *
What's this about a gfs upgrade? Hopefully its nothing like the cmc upgrade wacko.gif

Where are you seeing the upgrade notice? All is quiet on the GFS front on what appears to be the model upgrade page: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 2.0" (Updated 11/21/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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grandpaboy
post Jul 16 2013, 09:52 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jul 16 2013, 10:44 PM) *
Where are you seeing the upgrade notice? All is quiet on the GFS front on what appears to be the model upgrade page: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/



Yeah the only thing I see coming is the HWRF model update.......


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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MaineJay
post Jul 17 2013, 04:36 AM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Jul 16 2013, 10:52 PM) *
Yeah the only thing I see coming is the HWRF model update.......


I don't think there is a specific update, or overhaul. But I'm thinking that there may me some more funding, and consequently some are thinking there are upgrades coming.

Full article, published May 15, 2013

QUOTE
Game-changing improvements in the works for U.S. weather prediction
By Jason Samenow, Published: May 15 at 10:19 amE-mail the writer
A little known fact is that the source of most weather forecasts delivered on your TV news and smartphones are two supercomputers housed in Reston, Va. and Orlando, Fl. An infusion of funding into the National Weather Service from Hurricane Sandy relief legislation promises to facilitate massive upgrades to these machines that may dramatically improve local, national, and global weather forecasts.
Congress has approved large parts of NOAA’s spending plan under the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013 that will direct $23.7 million (or $25 million before sequestration), a so-called “Sandy supplemental” to the National Weather Service (NWS) for forecasting equipment and supercomputer infrastructure.


--------------------

“Some people are born on third base and go through life thinking they hit a triple.” - Barry Switzer
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jul 17 2013, 07:14 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jul 16 2013, 09:44 PM) *
Where are you seeing the upgrade notice? All is quiet on the GFS front on what appears to be the model upgrade page: http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/



QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Jul 16 2013, 09:52 PM) *
Yeah the only thing I see coming is the HWRF model update.......


This looks big time.....looks like 2015 is the target...looks like major bigtime changes the first of its kind....higher resolution and at one point said to have more computing capacity than the ECMWF

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capita...her-prediction/

QUOTE
A little known fact is that the source of most weather forecasts delivered on your TV news and smartphones are two supercomputers housed in Reston, Va. and Orlando, Fl. An infusion of funding into the National Weather Service from Hurricane Sandy relief legislation promises to facilitate massive upgrades to these machines that may dramatically improve local, national, and global weather forecasts.

Congress has approved large parts of NOAA’s spending plan under the Disaster Relief Appropriations Act of 2013 that will direct $23.7 million (or $25 million before sequestration), a so-called “Sandy supplemental” to the National Weather Service (NWS) for forecasting equipment and supercomputer infrastructure.This is a breakthrough moment for the National Weather Service and the entire U.S. weather enterprise in terms of positioning itself with the computing capacity and more sophisticated models we’ve all been waiting for,” said Louis Uccellini, director of the National Weather Service.

Last year, criticism began to emerge concerning the inferior accuracy of the NWS’s Global Forecast System (GFS) model – run on earlier versions of the supercomputers – compared to the model run at the European Centre for Medium Range Forecasting (ECMWF) based in the United Kingdom. The GFS and ECMWF models are, by far, the most heavily relied on by meteorologists around the world for forecasting.

Cliff Mass, a professor of atmospheric sciences at the University of Washington and expert in numerical weather prediction, called the standing of the GFS model “third-rate” and “a national embarrassment” in a March 2012 blog post.

“It is a huge story, an important story, but one the media has not touched, probably from lack of familiarity with a highly technical subject,” Mass wrote.

But when the ECMWF model outclassed the GFS model in its long-range forecasts for Hurricane Sandy in late October, the accuracy discrepancy between the models caught the media’s attention.

“The American model is the basis for many forecasts, and its reliability problems beyond the short term suggest something major is amiss with its physics and inputs,”wrote USA Today in an editorial. “The European model’s embarrassing superiority on Sandy ought to accelerate efforts to identify and fix what’s wrong.”

The supercomputer running the GFS model in Reston, Va., known as Tide (National Weather Service).

The $23.7 million in improvements to NWS’s forecasting systems from the Sandy supplemental will facilitate a more than ten-fold increase in the capacity of the supercomputer running the GFS model.
“This is an extraordinarily positive development and will give the National Weather Service the potential to lead the world in numerical weather prediction,” Mass said in an email Tuesday.

In technical terms, the computing capacity will ramp up from 213 teraflops to 2,600 teraflops by the 2015 fiscal year according to the NWS. (Teraflops are simply a measure of the number of trillion calculations the computer can perform per second.) The NWS expects ECWMF’s supercomputer to have a capacity of 2,217 teraflops at that same time.

“By 2015, we will exceed the ECMWF in operational computing capacity with NOAA operational computers for the first time since the late 1980s or early 1990s,” Uccellini said.

The increased computing power will enable drastic improvements in the GFS model’s resolution Uccellini said. Higher resolution models pick up on weather features a lower resolution might miss, like some high altitude steering currents. (Model resolution defines the geographic size of grid boxes in which models perform calculations. The smaller the grid box, the better the model can simulate localized features.)

In the case of Sandy, the ECMWF’s significantly higher resolution at forecast times 8 days into the future helped it accurately forecast the storm’s unusual left turn towards the Northeast coast while the GFS incorrectly simulated the storm would track harmlessly out to sea (at that same forecast time).
The NWS projects the Sandy supplemental funds will help enhance the horizontal resolution of the GFS model by around a factor of 3 by FY2015, enough to rival the ECMWF.
To make additional gains in the model’s accuracy, Uccellini said some of the Sandy supplemental funds will help pay for contract scientists to improve the model physics and to enhance the systems that bring in (or assimilate) data from ground weather sensors, satellites and weather balloons.

“These upgrades and plans represent a substantial improvement of the primary modeling system used by the Weather Service,” said Ricky Rood, professor of meteorology at the University of Michigan. “With these developments, the U.S. forecast system will share many characteristics with that of ECMWF.
Uccellini stressed the Sandy supplemental funds will be distributed to not only advance the GFS model, but also specialized models for predicting short-range weather, hurricanes, and thunderstorms.
The large scope of the modeling efforts the Sandy supplemental funds support may make it difficult to sustain gains made relative to the ECMWF cautioned University of Washington’s Mass.
“[The Sandy supplemental] is huge, but is only a down payment on what is needed,” Mass said. “The ECMWF only has to do global weather prediction; in contrast, the NWS has many more responsibilities.”
Uccellini said the President’s FY14 budget proposal provides a $13.8 million increase in funding levels for operational computing on top of the Sandy supplemental which would provide the various modeling programs with long-term security.
“We now have a budget profile, if the President’s budget is passed, that will allow us to sustain and build off the [Sandy supplemental] increases,” Uccellini said.
Marshall Shepherd, president of the American Meteorological Society, called these investments in forecasting a “game-changer”.
“I applaud NWS, NOAA, and policymakers for stepping forth with investments,” Shepherd said. “Weather forecasting is as critical to U.S. citizen’s lives as many public safety and national security activities, in my view.”
(Note: The $23.4 million appropriated to the NWS for forecasting improvements is just a small fraction of the $309.7 million NOAA will receive as part of the Sandy relief legislation. For example, funds will support ocean observing and coastal monitoring, disaster assistance for fisheries, and upgrades to two NOAA hurricane hunter aircrafts among other initiatives.)


This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Jul 17 2013, 07:34 AM
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jul 17 2013, 07:37 AM
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see a goal?


QUOTE
In the case of Sandy, the ECMWF’s significantly higher resolution at forecast times 8 days into the future helped it accurately forecast the storm’s unusual left turn towards the Northeast coast while the GFS incorrectly simulated the storm would track harmlessly out to sea (at that same forecast time).


QUOTE
In technical terms, the computing capacity will ramp up from 213 teraflops to 2,600 teraflops by the 2015 fiscal year according to the NWS. (Teraflops are simply a measure of the number of trillion calculations the computer can perform per second.) The NWS expects ECWMF’s supercomputer to have a capacity of 2,217 teraflops at that same time.



QUOTE
“By 2015, we will exceed the ECMWF in operational computing capacity with NOAA operational computers for the first time since the late 1980s or early 1990s,” Uccellini said.


QUOTE
The NWS projects the Sandy supplemental funds will help enhance the horizontal resolution of the GFS model by around a factor of 3 by FY2015, enough to rival the ECMWF.


QUOTE
“With these developments, the U.S. forecast system will share many characteristics with that of ECMWF.


This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Jul 17 2013, 07:38 AM
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Alwaysready126
post Jul 17 2013, 09:22 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Jul 17 2013, 07:37 AM) *
see a goal?


The EURO sets the standard for weather models across the globe. Why wouldn't we want to use the EURO as a goal for which we will put ourselves in the front, yet again....
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RobB
post Jul 17 2013, 09:33 AM
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QUOTE(Alwaysready126 @ Jul 17 2013, 10:22 AM) *
The EURO sets the standard for weather models across the globe. Why wouldn't we want to use the EURO as a goal for which we will put ourselves in the front, yet again....


Yeah hopefully the Euro and GFS continue to make improvements. Yeah the Euro is quite good but my neck of the woods has seen many misses from the Euro as well. No model will ever be great (IMHO) beyond 6 or 7 days simply due to the chaotic nature of weather but improvements will come.

Exciting stuff for weather weenies smile.gif
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grandpaboy
post Jul 18 2013, 07:38 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jul 17 2013, 10:33 AM) *
Yeah hopefully the Euro and GFS continue to make improvements. Yeah the Euro is quite good but my neck of the woods has seen many misses from the Euro as well. No model will ever be great (IMHO) beyond 6 or 7 days simply due to the chaotic nature of weather but improvements will come.

Exciting stuff for weather weenies smile.gif



As OB posted, the EURO picked out the "unusual" left turn 8 days in advance and whats crazy is I remember looking at those model runs and thinking.....wow the EURO has lost it with a forecast like that(even with that giant Greenland block forecast to be in place), then it continued run after run with a similar track......I started to worry even when it was 5 days out....

I agree, no model is perfect and each has its own advantages, though performance I believe the EURO overall has a better percentage

The thing I feel the EURO is weak on precipitation forecast and short term track adjustments, I saw some big failures during this past winter on storm tracks and thats not uncommon with the EURO....


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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Christhebirderan...
post Jul 18 2013, 07:56 PM
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I hope PNW is going to be Cold and Stormy
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