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> Long Range Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
Christhebirderan...
post Jul 18 2013, 08:00 PM
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Now that was my hope but a former Meteorologist here in PNW calls for Colder than Normal but Not Wetter than Normal just Avg.
But here is my thinking.
My new update Winter Weather Prediction for 2013-2014 calls for Warmer than Normal but Average Precip for the PNW I think I will lean towards a Warm ENSO more near a El Nino I see more of a repeat of the 09-2010 winter which was a solid El Nino I see a Cold PDO, Positive PNA, Avg NAO, and a Negative AO, Has for Snowfall I think no real snow just maybe a Couple of time's of Mix Rain.
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Christhebirderan...
post Jul 18 2013, 08:05 PM
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CPC models are saying Neutral/Weak La Nina. Euro think's Neutral-El Nino which I don't want to agree with but looks like it might be right.
CPC seasonal Forecast http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/pred...onal.php?lead=6
http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/curre...fo/figure3.html
http://www.longrangeweather.com/Weather-Forecasts.htm
http://weatheradvance.com/2013/07/17/first...winter-outlook/
So there are debates going on some say the West will be cool and snowy and Neutral-Weak La Nina other's think Warm Dry West and Storms to the East with Neutral-El Nino. blink.gif
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The Snowman
post Jul 18 2013, 09:58 PM
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I've been building a folder of composites for DJF after a certain atmospheric pattern's JJA values. I should be able to post the results and most significant correlations on here come Sunday. I've glanced over a few, I believe the AAO was among the stronger correlations ( I forget whether the correlation was positive or negative).


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 3.0" (Updated 12/17/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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Christhebirderan...
post Jul 18 2013, 10:00 PM
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I think this winter is going to be a pain in the *bleep* to Predict
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Christhebirderan...
post Jul 20 2013, 01:36 PM
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From nature signs
I have been noticing some Good signs, Average signs and Brutal signs for the Winter I think I'll be in a equal chance winter I may have some storms and cold and I may have average weather and some mild, dry weather.
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The Snowman
post Jul 22 2013, 09:17 AM
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I need a new hobby other than weather laugh.gif

I decided to stay up until about midnight doing some work with winter AO, NAO and PNA when compared to their preceding summer anomalies.

For the Arctic Oscillation, 46% of the years I looked at had a positive correlation, meaning both the summer anomalies and winter anomalies were negative or positive. 54% of the years I looked at had a negative correlation from summer to winter, meaning if the summer anomalies were positive, the winter AO anomalies were negative. The difference is so slight (46% to 54%) that this isn't really something to take interest in.

For the North Atlantic Oscillation, 45% of years analyzed had a positive summer-winter correlation, with 55% of years experiencing a negative correlation. Again, nothing to get excited about because the difference between the two is pretty small.

The PNA was the most significant in terms of siding with either the positive or negative correlation. 59% of years I examined had a positive correlation between summer and winter anomalies. Only 41% of years came in with a negative correlation. If you really wanted to, I would round it to 60%-40%, because I counted out a few years that would fit into the positive correlation category but decided they were too close to 0.00 to count.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 3.0" (Updated 12/17/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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grace
post Jul 22 2013, 11:58 AM
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I noticed that the PDO was back in negative territory after a brief spike for May.

June: -0.78

http://jisao.washington.edu/pdo/PDO.latest

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Christhebirderan...
post Jul 22 2013, 05:10 PM
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The last month Jamstec had Warm around the U.S. but now this has Coolness for lots and Warm for others.
http://www.jamstec.go.jp/frcgc/research/d1...14.1jul2013.gif
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Christhebirderan...
post Jul 22 2013, 05:13 PM
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http://iri.columbia.edu/climate/ENSO/currentinfo/figure3.gif
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Christhebirderan...
post Jul 22 2013, 05:15 PM
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For those who got's an FB
https://www.facebook.com/groups/467069140052034/
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Christhebirderan...
post Jul 22 2013, 05:18 PM
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Neutral/Weak La Nina 2013-2014 then Next will be a El Nino

This post has been edited by Christhebirderandweatherman: Jul 22 2013, 05:21 PM
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The Snowman
post Jul 23 2013, 02:51 PM
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I ran a quick correlation for October precipitation rate anomalies as a result of June Nino 1+2 values, and the findings were interesting. It has been proven that anomalously high Eurasian snow cover in October resulted in colder weather for the following DJF period, while below normal snow cover leads to a warmer winter.

Seeing as the Nino 1+2 area was as low as -2 just days before the month of June began, and the actual month of June seeing definitive moderate La Nina-type sea surface temperatures, it would not be the craziest thing to expect a snowier Siberia coming in October.


Attached File(s)
Attached File  64.53.178.223.203.13.45.29.gif ( 23.94K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 3.0" (Updated 12/17/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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Christhebirderan...
post Jul 24 2013, 02:15 AM
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Those are all signs of a winter being harsh and here is what I have experienced and What I feel about some.
I do agree with Long Hot Summer means Cold Winter which had been going on here in Washington.
Moths, Spiders, and other insects are going crazy which is 100 percent true of a bad winter.
Bees building nest low means a bad winter my step dad had ran into one while delivering mail in side the mailbox.
Birds are migrating early surely means winter cold and stormy they should not have any other reason to leave early.
The Woolly Warm has a Mixed Black and Brown meaning Average winter.
Lots of ants and they are marching in a line also around my area meaning the winter will be hard.
Raccoon's have been thick but I have not looked much on the black rings.
And final fruits are going nuts this year many of them.
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Alwaysready126
post Jul 24 2013, 10:13 AM
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QUOTE(Christhebirderandweatherman @ Jul 24 2013, 02:15 AM) *
Those are all signs of a winter being harsh and here is what I have experienced and What I feel about some.
I do agree with Long Hot Summer means Cold Winter which had been going on here in Washington.
Moths, Spiders, and other insects are going crazy which is 100 percent true of a bad winter.
Bees building nest low means a bad winter my step dad had ran into one while delivering mail in side the mailbox.
Birds are migrating early surely means winter cold and stormy they should not have any other reason to leave early.
The Woolly Warm has a Mixed Black and Brown meaning Average winter.
Lots of ants and they are marching in a line also around my area meaning the winter will be hard.
Raccoon's have been thick but I have not looked much on the black rings.
And final fruits are going nuts this year many of them.


I don't know if your being sarcastic (I don't think you are). I actually like this type of forecasting. I know there is little to zero physics involved in this type of predicting. Interesting, however, never the less. Do you have any hard evidence to substantiate what you are saying? Have there been any studies about these types of indications? Or, are these just fallacies more than anything else?
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NorEaster07
post Jul 24 2013, 10:53 AM
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QUOTE(Alwaysready126 @ Jul 24 2013, 11:13 AM) *
Do you have any hard evidence to substantiate what you are saying? Have there been any studies about these types of indications? Or, are these just fallacies more than anything else?


While I dont believe anything happening in July is a sign of winter to come, we all just dont know if nature knows themselves. However... come fall I personally look for 3 things.

Dog Shedding
Leaf color/drop timeframe
Squirrel motions

Some years work out perfectly, others dont.

But I think I'll trust those 3 signs over the CFS 4,170 hour forecast. LOL laugh.gif blink.gif

Attached File  CFS.jpg ( 526.65K ) Number of downloads: 3



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
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Chambana
post Jul 24 2013, 11:07 AM
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QUOTE(Christhebirderandweatherman @ Jul 24 2013, 02:15 AM) *
Those are all signs of a winter being harsh and here is what I have experienced and What I feel about some.
I do agree with Long Hot Summer means Cold Winter which had been going on here in Washington.
Moths, Spiders, and other insects are going crazy which is 100 percent true of a bad winter.
Bees building nest low means a bad winter my step dad had ran into one while delivering mail in side the mailbox.
Birds are migrating early surely means winter cold and stormy they should not have any other reason to leave early.
The Woolly Warm has a Mixed Black and Brown meaning Average winter.
Lots of ants and they are marching in a line also around my area meaning the winter will be hard.
Raccoon's have been thick but I have not looked much on the black rings.
And final fruits are going nuts this year many of them.


Not trying to rain on your parade, but never ever correlate a hot long summer, to a long cold winter to follow. 2 of our hottest summers on record (2011,2012) were followed by 2 extremely mild winters. It has been an odd summer that's for sure, with warm anomalies found on the west, east coast while the middle part of the country is running average, to slightly below average.

Btw, got down to 60 degrees last night, almost felt like an crisp late September, early October morning. Quite an impressive cold snap to last the next few nights, possible record breaking low temps, Saturday night, forecasted to dip down to 52 ohmy.gif Threatening a record set back in 1904 I believe.

Rolling right through summer, last week of July already. Summer is slowly fading away.
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Christhebirderan...
post Jul 24 2013, 11:37 AM
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Fine but Woolly Worm one is true that never fails
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Christhebirderan...
post Jul 24 2013, 11:39 AM
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Also I am a bird watcher and Birds are migrating very early don't know any other reason why other than it's going to bad a harsh winter they have no other reason what so ever
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kpk33x
post Jul 24 2013, 12:40 PM
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Its a mixed bag on the hot summer/severe winter dynamic
Its happened sometimes (2002, 1995)
It hasn't happened sometimes (2012, 2011)

My Husky is STILL shedding approaching August when she's usually done in early June. I think that has more to do with the colder spring delaying it than the future. Then again I'm not a farmer and don't have the intuitive sense of signs in nature.

Going strictly on odds this winter will be somewhere between 2011-12 and 2009-10. laugh.gif



--------------------
Winter '14-'15 - Intervale, NH
Snow
November - 15.75" - incl. 11.5" 11/26-27
December - 10.00" (as of 12/15)
Season total to date - 25.75"

First flakes - 11/2/14
Lowest temp of season - +3F on 12/8
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jul 24 2013, 02:17 PM
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yeah i think a TON of the odd animal/nature behavior is more towards the late winter/crazy spring we had rather than the summer
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