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> Long Range Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
RobB
post Dec 12 2013, 02:32 PM
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12Z 8 to 10 Day 500 millibar means:
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WEATHERFREAK
post Dec 12 2013, 04:26 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 12 2013, 09:07 AM) *
This morning's 8 to 10 day means:


The Larax Recurring cycle argues for a sizable east coast trough toward Christmas. Keeping fingers crossed for Florida. Plus the current Scandinavian ridge looks to be suppressed and head toward central Europe. All else being equal, that should mean the se ridge wanes.

This post has been edited by WEATHERFREAK: Dec 12 2013, 04:58 PM


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RobB
post Dec 12 2013, 04:43 PM
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12Z NAEFS:
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scwxman
post Dec 12 2013, 07:06 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 12 2013, 04:43 PM) *
12Z NAEFS:


God I'm fed up with warm South Carolina. Long range looks pitiful.
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TheStormExpert
post Dec 12 2013, 07:29 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Dec 12 2013, 04:26 PM) *
The Larax Recurring cycle argues for a sizable east coast trough toward Christmas. Keeping fingers crossed for Florida. Plus the current Scandinavian ridge looks to be suppressed and head toward central Europe. All else being equal, that should mean the se ridge wanes.

Yeah this has to be one of the warmest decembers in years for Florida! Hopefully this stubborn SE Ridge weakens and allows some of that arctic air to filter into the state real soon. sad.gif
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blizzardOf96
post Dec 12 2013, 07:43 PM
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Good signs for those hoping for cold and snowy weather going forward. The chances of a significant torch have gone down considerably IMO based on the MJO/AAM and look to the west pac. Thinking we will see a pretty impressive period of weather in the east/ central u.s well into the beginning of january. Core of cold should sit across the northern rockies, prairies and northern plains states with the BZ downstream and a moderate SE ridge in place. The further south and east you go, the more resistance you will get against major cold/snow as the AO/NAO is positive. Across the northern tier it will be a different story as the gradient look should continue overall with CPF if we can see an increase in wave flux over the NE pac. Warm up's will happen, it just looks like the cold should dominate any significant bouts of warmth unless your in the SE/mid atlantic.

The GWO will stay weaker then previously thought with all others factors remaining very similar as we head into the end of DEC/beginning of jan (NE pac warm pool, ridging over EPO/PNA domain, +AO/NAO/QBO and weak MJO overall). With that being said, as we head towards late jan,Feb and March the NAM state looks to trend more negative as EP flux often gains strength late winter in +QBO/Smin years. Western ENSO anoms look to increase as we head towards the FMA period via the NOI relationship as long as the EPO/WPO stay negative. How soon weakening of the vortex occurs is still up in the air and will be an important factor heading forward as this would help bring the AO/NAO indices down with more of an el nino setup potentially.

This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Dec 12 2013, 07:50 PM


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Total Snowfall Winter 2013-14: 170.4cm
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NE MA Weather
post Dec 12 2013, 10:16 PM
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Its been almost two months since we had a negative NAO and around 3 months since a positive PNA, with no end in sight in the immediate future. I thought these were supposed to fluctuate more...


--------------------
Winter 2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 43"

12/6--Coating
12/9--1"
12/10--0.5"
12/14--7"
12/17--5"
12/26--Coating
1/2--13"
1/10--0.5"
1/18--4"
2/3--1"
2/5--9.5"
2/9--0.5"

Winter 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 55"
Greatest snowfall for '12-'13: 21" (2/9)
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so_whats_happeni...
post Dec 13 2013, 06:57 AM
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QUOTE(NE MA Weather @ Dec 13 2013, 12:16 AM) *
Its been almost two months since we had a negative NAO and around 3 months since a positive PNA, with no end in sight in the immediate future. I thought these were supposed to fluctuate more...

Not with this type of pattern lol. Pv just does not want to break down and and neither does the small yet influential se ridge. We get times when each gets slightly distorted and hey there is a storm from what looks like an impossible setup. Until we see blocking occur expect more of the same. I'm personally ok with how our winter is going so far. If it is this cold with this pattern I would hate to see what it is like in full fledged - mode


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Computer models and other important sites: http://southeastpaweather.blogspot.com/
Average: 23"
2008-2009 34" 148% of normal
2009-2010 74" 322% of normal
2010-2011 42" 183% of normal
Coldest Temp: 10
Average: 40.1"
Rainfall...32.10" (may be off by 1-2") well above average this year... Havent updated since Late july!
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RobB
post Dec 13 2013, 07:15 AM
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NAEFS and 8 to 10 day 500 millibar means:
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jdrenken
post Dec 13 2013, 08:50 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Dec 13 2013, 06:15 AM) *
NAEFS and 8 to 10 day 500 millibar means:


Not you RobB...but...
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jdrenken
post Dec 13 2013, 08:53 AM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Dec 12 2013, 03:26 PM) *
The Larax Recurring cycle argues for a sizable east coast trough toward Christmas. Keeping fingers crossed for Florida. Plus the current Scandinavian ridge looks to be suppressed and head toward central Europe. All else being equal, that should mean the se ridge wanes.


*Sigh*
  1. The name doesn't even come close.
  2. You might want to look at the pattern from late October again regarding your East Coast trough call. wink.gif


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WMDWXNUT
post Dec 13 2013, 09:43 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 13 2013, 08:50 AM) *
Not you RobB...but...


Still waiting on my little orphan JD decoder pin to come in the mail…hasn't shown up yet. smile.gif


--------------------
10 mi south of Hagerstown, md

Winter 2013-2014

12/8 7.2"
12/10 5.25"
1/2 3.25"
1/21 7.5"
2/3 4"
2/9 1"
2/13 14.5"
2/15 .5"
2/18 1"
3/3 4.5"
3/17 4.75
3/25 1.5"

Total: 55"

Winter 2012-2013

Total: 20.25"
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RobB
post Dec 13 2013, 09:47 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Dec 13 2013, 08:50 AM) *
Not you RobB...but...


smile.gif You want answers?? I want the truth!....
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jdrenken
post Dec 13 2013, 10:20 AM
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QUOTE
EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS WEATHER PREDICTION CENTER COLLEGE PARK MD
108 AM EST FRI DEC 13 2013

VALID 12Z MON DEC 16 2013 - 12Z FRI DEC 20 2013

...OVERVIEW...
EASTERN NORTH AMERICA REMAINS IN SOMEWHAT OF A TROUGH
PATTERN...WITH COLD ARCTIC AIR AIMED AT THE GREAT LAKES...UPPER
MIDWEST AND NEW ENGLAND DURING THE FIRST HALF OF THIS FORECAST
PERIOD.

FLOW PATTERN ASSOCIATED WITH THE UPCOMING TRANSITION DURING THE
LATTER HALF OF THIS FORECAST CAN BE CHARACTERIZED AS 'PACIFIC
DOMINATED' WITH DEEP AND INTENSE DISTURBANCES IN THE GULF OF
ALASKA MIGRATING THROUGH THE CANADIAN AND NORTHERN US ROCKIES.
THESE SYSTEMS QUICKLY BECOME ENTRAINED IN THE UPPER-LEVEL
NORTHWESTERLIES DOWNSTREAM OVER SOUTH CENTRAL CANADA...THE GREAT
LAKES AND MIDWEST...BRINGING A SOMEWHAT MILDER PACIFIC AIRMASS
INTO THE WEST AND SOUTH CENTRAL US.

DAYS 5-7...NEXT PACIFIC SYSTEM IS RAPIDLY MIGRATING ACROSS THE NORTHERN ROCKIES...SPREADING A MILD AIRMASS EASTWARD INTO THE GREAT BASIN. ANTICIPATE AN APPRECIABLE WARMING TREND FOR THE CENTRAL ROCKIES AND PLAINS STATES. A PROLONGED WARMUP IS IN PLAY FOR THE SOUTHERN PLAINS AND MID-MS VALLEY AS A WELL-DEFINED WARM FRONT IS GENERATED


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grace
post Dec 13 2013, 12:36 PM
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JD....are you saying that there will be no cold around the 21-27 that the models are continually showing? Believe me, just cause the models are showing it doesn't mean I believe it. But is that what you're saying? Be blunt...plain language. It's not always easy to read between the lines. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by grace: Dec 13 2013, 12:37 PM
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Mid Tn. Man
post Dec 13 2013, 01:25 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Dec 13 2013, 11:36 AM) *
JD....are you saying that there will be no cold around the 21-27 that the models are continually showing? Believe me, just cause the models are showing it doesn't mean I believe it. But is that what you're saying? Be blunt...plain language. It's not always easy to read between the lines. laugh.gif



I was wondering the same thing unsure.gif


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LoDelWayne
post Dec 13 2013, 01:39 PM
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QUOTE(Mid Tn. Man @ Dec 13 2013, 01:25 PM) *
I was wondering the same thing unsure.gif



Hard to believe with everyone pointing to extreme cold that it might just be a myth. I guess we play the wait-n-see game again!


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Weatherjunkie
post Dec 13 2013, 02:18 PM
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Yeah, I'll be the first to admit when I was wrong. The timing of the warmth was pretty good, occuring around the 20th. However, the stratosphere/PV/+QBO are overriding some of the other factors and the MJO/OLR is not strong enough to push this away even with the +AO/+NAO, although to be fair it has helped with the -EPO/ridging in the N. Pac. I don't think the warmth lasts very long and there's good potential for CONUS wide troughing to end the month, with the brunt of the cold anomalies favoring the high plains.



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RobB
post Dec 13 2013, 02:39 PM
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Most recent 8 to 10 day 500 millibar means:
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RobB
post Dec 13 2013, 02:40 PM
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12Z NAEFS:
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