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> Long Range Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
The Day After To...
post Aug 8 2013, 12:08 PM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Aug 7 2013, 10:09 PM) *
Looking forward to your winter posts.

I hope you include OV/GL xD

Not for daily, but definately for long range and seasonal forecasts.


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My blog, Nor'easter Warn (N'EW)


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grace
post Aug 8 2013, 03:15 PM
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JB's twitter:

QUOTE
Gasp... EcmwF monthlies have ugly US winter shaping up in line with http://weatherbell.com ideas. Lets see if they hold!


https://twitter.com/bigjoebastardi
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Alwaysready126
post Aug 8 2013, 03:23 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 8 2013, 03:15 PM) *


Too early yet for this type of anxiety.......
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The Day After To...
post Aug 8 2013, 03:21 PM
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Ugly good...or ugly bad...


--------------------
My blog, Nor'easter Warn (N'EW)


N'EW BLOG
Proud to have over 7,000 viewers, with over 13,000 blog views!
Spring Forecast: March 15


"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


STORM ALERT
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Spwild47
post Aug 8 2013, 03:38 PM
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yes..public pressure after Sandy..because....wait for it...the Euro forecasted Sandy better than NWS..because..wait for it...the Euro has 10x the computing power of the NWS computers...and the computing oower of supercomputers that can crunch 1000s of variables into models based on accurate statistics is more likely to be accurate in forecasting...

My point about your post is that it violates 2 basics of statistics..selection bias and the rule of 30. You quote sunspots and snowfall that goes back approximately 64 years...but then select just 12/64 years...excluding 82% of the sample..that is selection bias, and that alone makes your conclusion highly suspect. Another problem with eliminating 52/64 years to a sample size of 12 is that you are well below the sample size of 30, below which standard deviations and confidence interval boundaries fluctuate wildly...further making the likelihood of a real correlation highly unlikely, and more likely due to randomness.

If there is a correlation between sunspots and snowfall, in other words if sunspots drove snowfall, which you seem to imply, then the correlation should exist throughout the entire sample..not just in 18% of it....especially when you are selecting just 2 cities, excluding 99.9% of the surface of the earth..

I agree that human intuition and judgement needs to play a part in forecasting, but not using sound statistical methodology sets you up to be "fooled by randomness", and take you further from the real driving forces behind the weather..

QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Aug 8 2013, 12:19 PM) *
simple. Public pressure after Sandy.

Im not saying dump the computers and replace it with measureing the fat on a deer in the fall. (which BTW nature is the only means of accuracy to a true long range forecast) Im saying theres TOO MUCH of what you just said and not enough stepping back and saying....."well would you look there"....if you look at data sometimes with eyes and not calculators, often it makes alot more sense and has higher meaning.

Example: storm spotters........the calculations can prepare us and lead us in a direction of knowing where a tornado is gonna touchdown but ultimately spotters are the ones who actually give cross road visual of where the tornado is. old fashioned vehicle, eyeballs, knowledge

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grace
post Aug 8 2013, 03:52 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Aug 8 2013, 03:21 PM) *
Ugly good...or ugly bad...


Ugly good if you like Winter weather. Says Euro monthlies showing lots of blocking & east cold.

This post has been edited by grace: Aug 8 2013, 03:52 PM
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ChrisL
post Aug 8 2013, 04:19 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 8 2013, 01:52 PM) *
Ugly good if you like Winter weather. Says Euro monthlies showing lots of blocking & east cold.


How the West look? Still above average? I think we're more concerned about rainfall than temperatures tbh (well at least here in so cal)....

This post has been edited by ChrisL: Aug 8 2013, 05:01 PM
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grace
post Aug 8 2013, 04:28 PM
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QUOTE(ChrisL @ Aug 8 2013, 04:19 PM) *
How the West look? Still above average? I think we're more concerned about rainfall then temperatures tbh (well at least here in so cal)....


Not sure. I haven't see the graphs yet. Maybe someone will posts Brett's take a little later.
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grace
post Aug 8 2013, 04:30 PM
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Graph of last 4 solar cycles:

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grace
post Aug 8 2013, 04:34 PM
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This hasn't been discussed for this upcoming winter that I can see...but about all the rain much of U.S. east of the Rockies has received this summer. How might ground moisture affect snowfall this winter?
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Midnightsunn
post Aug 8 2013, 04:34 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 8 2013, 04:30 PM) *
Graph of last 4 solar cycles:


I know it sure would be nice to get some decent rain this season. It is, for the most part so dry in
California. Even Northern California. Seems we got some decent rain and then it just dried up last year. I hear all the time about how wonderful California is- everyone wants to live here because of the climate. I wish very much it had more rain. Was hoping for a possible El Nino here-that brings rain- but again squashed I think. La Nina is a disaster for California. Dry as a bone those years.
Here is hoping for decent rains this fall and winter.
Anyone know what Mr. Bastardi might think about rains in California 2013-2014?

Thanks!

This post has been edited by Midnightsunn: Aug 8 2013, 04:37 PM
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The Snowman
post Aug 8 2013, 04:48 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 8 2013, 03:15 PM) *



QUOTE(grace @ Aug 8 2013, 03:52 PM) *
Ugly good if you like Winter weather. Says Euro monthlies showing lots of blocking & east cold.

HM post as of 5 hours ago

QUOTE
I saw the ECMWF monthlies and the winter looks mild to start, perhaps some coastal storms in Jan, then storm track TX to NE in Feb.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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The Snowman
post Aug 8 2013, 04:53 PM
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Today seems to be the day for mets to give little bits and pieces on the winter.

First JB, then HM, and now Justin Berk.

QUOTE
Have you noticed more butterflies and acorns than normal? Some see these as signs of a cold/snowy winter ahead.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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The Snowman
post Aug 8 2013, 04:55 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Aug 8 2013, 04:53 PM) *
Today seems to be the day for mets to give little bits and pieces on the winter.

First JB, then HM, and now Justin Berk.

Building on to this (and going back to a discussion on earth signs for winter we had on this thread a while ago), a commenter on Mr. Berk's status posted this:

QUOTE
20 Earthly Signs of a Harsh Winter Ahead
1.Thicker than normal corn husks
2.Woodpeckers sharing a tree
3.Early arrival of the Snowy owl
4.Early departure of geese and ducks
5.Early migration of the Monarch butterfly
6.Thick hair on the nape (back) of the cow’s neck
7.Heavy and numerous fogs during August
8.Raccoons with thick tails and bright bands
9.Mice eating ravenously into the home
10.Early arrival of crickets on the hearth
11.Spiders spinning larger than usual webs and entering the house in great numbers
12.Pigs gathering sticks
13.Insects marching a bee line rather than meandering
14.Early seclusion of bees within the hive
15.Unusual abundance of acorns
16.Muskrats burrowing holes high on the river hank
17.“See how high the hornet’s nest, ‘twill tell how high the snow will rest”
18.Narrow orange band in the middle of the Woollybear caterpillar warns of heavy snow
19.The squirrel gathers nuts early to fortify against a hard winter
20.Frequent halos or rings around sun or moon forecast numerous snow falls.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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grace
post Aug 8 2013, 10:49 PM
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CFS v.2 is headed towred the colder side again:

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p...usT2me3Mon.html
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grace
post Aug 8 2013, 11:14 PM
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Go look at the global chart underneath N. America & look at the cold probabilities in the artic. Looks like a big chill.

Look at 12z NAEFS
http://weather.gc.ca/ensemble/naefs/semaine2_combinee_e.html
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The Snowman
post Aug 8 2013, 11:19 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 8 2013, 10:49 PM) *
CFS v.2 is headed towred the colder side again:

http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/p...usT2me3Mon.html

As it should. The upper level atmospheric forecast has not changed over the course of its forecast of brutal cold to average and now to slightly below normal. Though I would anticipate the cold to be maximized over the Central US- above normal SST's in the Atlantic will permit enhanced probabilities of high pressure formation that could then affect the East Coast.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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The Snowman
post Aug 8 2013, 11:25 PM
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There isn't a doubt in my mind this could be a big winter. In order to get a big winter (i.e. lots of cold and snow), we'll need a few things to fall into place, namely:

-A drop-off in sunspot #'s in mid/late fall. This would allow a cold winter to get underway, should my theory of a 2-3 month gap between sunspot spikes/drops correlate with temperature anomalies.

-Continued consistency of the current analog package. I've been discussing it a lot, and I'm not going to stop any time soon. Continued consistency by my analog package of 1951-1952 and 1962-1963 would increase the chances of a weaker polar vortex (additional cold weather chances), a stronger East Asian jet stream (likely due to increased low pressure anomalies, leading to a stormier pattern for the region, in turn leading to a stormier East US using the 6-10 day lag between a strong E. Asian storm and a storm in the E. US)

-Increasing SST's in the Arctic. High pressure formation would be greatly aided by SST's pushing higher in the Arctic Circle.

-A very snowy Siberia. If data comes in in October saying that Siberia had well above normal snowfall throughout the month, pull out the extra blankets, because the cold's a-comin'.

FWIW, I'm not endorsing the idea of a big winter just yet- I'm stating that it is a possibility, but we need the above variables to come to fruition in order for such a winter.

This post has been edited by The Snowman: Aug 8 2013, 11:26 PM


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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Christhebirderan...
post Aug 9 2013, 12:01 AM
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Meteorologist in Washington say's West will get Cooler than Average
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NorEaster07
post Aug 9 2013, 05:41 AM
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Steve D tid bit.

"I want to draw your attention to the Aleutian Islands and Barring Strait this morning that I’m watching very carefully.



The image above is the forecast from the ECMWF via Penn State E-Wall for tonight. Note that there is a deep trough over the Aleutian Islands and an upper level low over the Barring Strait. This pattern in the Pacific naturally leads to a ridge over western North America and a trough over eastern North America. Of course, this time of year the amplitude of the troughs and ridges are limited due to the lack of thermal gradient and thus the strength of 500 MB winds being relatively weak compared to the winter.

this time of year the amplitude of the troughs and ridges are limited due to the lack of thermal gradient and thus the strength of 500 MB winds being relatively weak compared to the winter.

Now let’s jump to 10 days from now!



Granted you never take a 10 day forecast verbatim, but note the overall theme here. A strong upper level low continues to be present over the Barring Strait and Aleutian Islands, a ridge is present over western North America, and a broad trough is present over the Eastern United States.

The point here is that the 500 MB pattern appears to be locking in early over the pacific with a sustained negative EPO pattern. Is this a sign of the up coming Fall and Winter pattern? Well, let’s consider the fact the PDO has flipped to warm which would suggest a better support for a negative EPO pattern. Second, the convection around the date line is slowly coming along and starting to grow in coverage, which would also support this 500 MB pattern. Third, the stratosphere continues to support a higher potential for an amplified 500 MB pattern for the higher latitudes which would support a negative EPO, negative AO, and negative NAO pattern for the Fall and yes even the Winter."

He does go on to say that a shift east or west of these troughs/ridges will mean winter weather fans will be happy or angry depending where you are. He also says patience and there's no need to call for storm tracks now. But I like the 3 ingrediants in play. -EPO. -AO, -NAO. Add a few more like low sunspots, +PDO, ect, and this could get interesting.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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