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> Long Range Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
jdrenken
post Aug 17 2013, 08:17 PM
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QUOTE(Chambana @ Aug 17 2013, 08:16 PM) *
Their is no way that CFS temperature departure would verify. I will be the first admit, we all should be extremely careful right now, as everyone was calling for an epic winter 2011-2012, and the cards weren't dealt right.

BUT, their is just to many things lining up for what is going to be a winter that should be completely different than the previous 2.

1. Cold PDO
2. Solar maximum has been achieved, 2014 marks even bigger changes
3. Upper level air pattern
4. The shortest arctic summer on record, in the last 40 years
5. neutral to weak La Niņa conditions prevail this year


The departure is from the prior day run. Hence the stance that the CFS v2 is anything but consistent.


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The Snowman
post Aug 17 2013, 08:24 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Aug 17 2013, 08:17 PM) *
The departure is from the prior day run. Hence the stance that the CFS v2 is anything but consistent.

How can the CFS be inconsistent if its upper level pattern is nearly unchanged since June? Surely you saw the graphics I posted a page back, showing the following things we are still seeing today that we saw in June:

-Ridge in Greenland
-Troughing in Canada into the US
-Strengthened E. Asian jet stream
-Ridging pattern along the western North American coast
-Slight indication of high pressure off the Southeast US coast


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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HV Snowstorm
post Aug 17 2013, 10:30 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Aug 17 2013, 09:24 PM) *
How can the CFS be inconsistent if its upper level pattern is nearly unchanged since June? Surely you saw the graphics I posted a page back, showing the following things we are still seeing today that we saw in June:

-Ridge in Greenland
-Troughing in Canada into the US
-Strengthened E. Asian jet stream
-Ridging pattern along the western North American coast
-Slight indication of high pressure off the Southeast US coast


lol JD always likes to try to ruin all the fun and excitement.

This post has been edited by HV Snowstorm: Aug 17 2013, 10:30 PM
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The Snowman
post Aug 18 2013, 01:27 AM
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QUOTE(HV Snowstorm @ Aug 17 2013, 10:30 PM) *
lol JD always likes to try to ruin all the fun and excitement.

No, JD tries to keep things as accurate as possible on these forums; a tough job for anyone to do.
He is trying to argue one point, I am trying to argue another- he isn't trying to ruin all the fun (though I know winter weather folk would prefer my argument over his laugh.gif )


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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NYCSuburbs
post Aug 18 2013, 07:53 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Aug 18 2013, 02:27 AM) *
No, JD tries to keep things as accurate as possible on these forums; a tough job for anyone to do.
He is trying to argue one point, I am trying to argue another- he isn't trying to ruin all the fun (though I know winter weather folk would prefer my argument over his laugh.gif )

It definitely is a tough task to do, and I have to say that throughout my stay here I've definitely seen a significant improvement in quality in these forums... of course there's people that disagree with each side (A lot of people would probably prefer your side of the argument laugh.gif ) but some of these arguments - as long as they're kept in reasonable proportions obviously - can be quite constructive especially for those from the outside looking at the argument hoping to learn something out of it.

Considering where we picked off from last winter and the current pattern we're entering with central US ridging, the next few months are going to be quite interesting...
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grace
post Aug 18 2013, 09:54 AM
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QUOTE(HV Snowstorm @ Aug 17 2013, 10:30 PM) *
lol JD always likes to try to ruin all the fun and excitement.


And possibly save us winter weather lovers from huge disappointments like....winter 2011-12. All the hype & fall never really ended. wink.gif
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grace
post Aug 18 2013, 09:55 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Aug 18 2013, 01:27 AM) *
No, JD tries to keep things as accurate as possible on these forums; a tough job for anyone to do.
He is trying to argue one point, I am trying to argue another- he isn't trying to ruin all the fun (though I know winter weather folk would prefer my argument over his laugh.gif )


You better believe it!! I guarantee you that JD hopes what you're thinking verifies also...but he's a lot more objective than most of us winter weather nuts. laugh.gif

This post has been edited by grace: Aug 18 2013, 09:56 AM
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blizzardOf96
post Aug 18 2013, 10:08 AM
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Just finished my preliminary 2013-14 winter outlook. It is now posted on my blog. Here are the winter highlights and the eastern regional breakdown. Don't hesitate to ask me any questions you may have, I will be more then happy to answer them.
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2013_08_18_at_9_1.23.20_AM.png ( 209.87K ) Number of downloads: 9


East

The winter will start off slow this year with warmer then normal temperatures dominating december, despite a -NAO pattern. Lower then normal snowfall is likely across the mid atlantic and coastal plain while the interior northeast, northern new england and eastern great lakes have the potential to see normal snowfall. The storm track will stay predominantly inland with one branch of the jet stream dominating. Great lakes cutters will occur most frequently as well as colorado lows. Apps runners and coastal lows will be less common but can occur once or twice in december. By January and february cold air masses will shift eastwards into the region as the storm track continues to shift SE. The southeast will continue to remain warmer then normal but winter will pack a punch to the north. I am expecting above normal snowfall in the eastern ohio valley, great lakes and interior northeast. Slightly colder then normal temps are likely across new england and the northeast with clippers sliding southeast. The NAO will stay variable in january with a strong GOA high/-EPO dominating. In february, snowy conditions are likely across the ohio valley, great lakes and the northeast. If one month will deliver a couple coastal's for the I-95 snow geese it will happen in february. The storm track will continue to shift SE as a more el nino type of pattern sets up with a +PNA setup. The Southeast stays warm and dry in february as a weak southeast ridge holds up.

This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Aug 18 2013, 09:18 PM


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mikeyj1220
post Aug 18 2013, 10:09 AM
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QUOTE(KSpring1 @ Aug 14 2013, 08:51 PM) *
YEEEEEEEESSSSS! Thanks for the good news! I've been scanning posts looking for something positive to look forward to.... as we've been enjoying such beautiful, warm summer days! I'll hold on to this! smile.gif
Thanks!!


HELLS YEAH!!! HIGH FIVE (SWAAP)


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Not snow starved this winter of 09/10: Approx.. 85-90 inches

Feb 2010 beat our snow record in one month with approx. 45-50 inches
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Blizz
post Aug 18 2013, 11:20 AM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Aug 18 2013, 11:08 AM) *
Just finished my 2013-14 winter outlook. It is now posted on my blog. Here are the winter highlights and the eastern regional breakdown. Don't hesitate to ask me any questions you may have, I will be more then happy to answer them.
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2013_08_18_at_9_1.23.20_AM.png ( 209.87K ) Number of downloads: 9


East

The winter will start off slow this year with warmer then normal temperatures dominating december, despite a -NAO pattern. Lower then normal snowfall is likely across the mid atlantic and coastal plain while the interior northeast, northern new england and eastern great lakes have the potential to see normal snowfall. The storm track will stay predominantly inland with one branch of the jet stream dominating. Great lakes cutters will occur most frequently as well as colorado lows. Apps runners and coastal lows will be less common but can occur once or twice in december. By January and february cold air masses will shift eastwards into the region as the storm track continues to shift SE. The southeast will continue to remain warmer then normal but winter will pack a punch to the north. I am expecting above normal snowfall in the eastern ohio valley, great lakes and interior northeast. Slightly colder then normal temps are likely across new england and the northeast with clippers sliding southeast. The NAO will stay variable in january with a strong GOA high/-EPO dominating. In february, snowy conditions are likely across the ohio valley, great lakes and the northeast. If one month will deliver a couple coastal's for the I-95 snow geese it will happen in february. The storm track will continue to shift SE as a more el nino type of pattern sets up with a +PNA setup. The Southeast stays warm and dry in february as a weak southeast ridge holds up.


I mean I respect your ideas and I know that it is currently a boring August with lack of storms to track (hurricanes, tropical storms) but a lot can change between now and October and im not sure is appropriate to make a winter outlook this far out IMO. But again, I appreciate posting your current thinking.... but thats just my opinion..

Looks like a carbon copy of last year's winter too... Not what I want to hear... I am SO DONE with not experiencing 7+ inches of snow in my backyard from one event since 2010...

(I missed October event in 11 in state college and "Nemo" (yeah...) in Florida. dry.gif

This post has been edited by Blizz: Aug 18 2013, 11:24 AM
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Juniorrr
post Aug 18 2013, 11:48 AM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Aug 18 2013, 11:08 AM) *
Just finished my 2013-14 winter outlook. It is now posted on my blog. Here are the winter highlights and the eastern regional breakdown. Don't hesitate to ask me any questions you may have, I will be more then happy to answer them.
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2013_08_18_at_9_1.23.20_AM.png ( 209.87K ) Number of downloads: 9


East

The winter will start off slow this year with warmer then normal temperatures dominating december, despite a -NAO pattern. Lower then normal snowfall is likely across the mid atlantic and coastal plain while the interior northeast, northern new england and eastern great lakes have the potential to see normal snowfall. The storm track will stay predominantly inland with one branch of the jet stream dominating. Great lakes cutters will occur most frequently as well as colorado lows. Apps runners and coastal lows will be less common but can occur once or twice in december. By January and february cold air masses will shift eastwards into the region as the storm track continues to shift SE. The southeast will continue to remain warmer then normal but winter will pack a punch to the north. I am expecting above normal snowfall in the eastern ohio valley, great lakes and interior northeast. Slightly colder then normal temps are likely across new england and the northeast with clippers sliding southeast. The NAO will stay variable in january with a strong GOA high/-EPO dominating. In february, snowy conditions are likely across the ohio valley, great lakes and the northeast. If one month will deliver a couple coastal's for the I-95 snow geese it will happen in february. The storm track will continue to shift SE as a more el nino type of pattern sets up with a +PNA setup. The Southeast stays warm and dry in february as a weak southeast ridge holds up.

I like. Looks like a repeat of last year(atleast for the first half of winter) which I would take.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Aug 18 2013, 11:51 AM
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mupawxnut
post Aug 18 2013, 11:56 AM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Aug 18 2013, 11:08 AM) *
Just finished my 2013-14 winter outlook. It is now posted on my blog. Here are the winter highlights and the eastern regional breakdown. Don't hesitate to ask me any questions you may have, I will be more then happy to answer them.
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2013_08_18_at_9_1.23.20_AM.png ( 209.87K ) Number of downloads: 9


East

The winter will start off slow this year with warmer then normal temperatures dominating december, despite a -NAO pattern. Lower then normal snowfall is likely across the mid atlantic and coastal plain while the interior northeast, northern new england and eastern great lakes have the potential to see normal snowfall. The storm track will stay predominantly inland with one branch of the jet stream dominating. Great lakes cutters will occur most frequently as well as colorado lows. Apps runners and coastal lows will be less common but can occur once or twice in december. By January and february cold air masses will shift eastwards into the region as the storm track continues to shift SE. The southeast will continue to remain warmer then normal but winter will pack a punch to the north. I am expecting above normal snowfall in the eastern ohio valley, great lakes and interior northeast. Slightly colder then normal temps are likely across new england and the northeast with clippers sliding southeast. The NAO will stay variable in january with a strong GOA high/-EPO dominating. In february, snowy conditions are likely across the ohio valley, great lakes and the northeast. If one month will deliver a couple coastal's for the I-95 snow geese it will happen in february. The storm track will continue to shift SE as a more el nino type of pattern sets up with a +PNA setup. The Southeast stays warm and dry in february as a weak southeast ridge holds up.

Question: Are you expecting an actual El Nino to develop in late winter/spring 2014, or just a warm-neutral pattern?
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The Snowman
post Aug 18 2013, 12:37 PM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Aug 18 2013, 10:08 AM) *
Just finished my 2013-14 winter outlook. It is now posted on my blog. Here are the winter highlights and the eastern regional breakdown. Don't hesitate to ask me any questions you may have, I will be more then happy to answer them.
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2013_08_18_at_9_1.23.20_AM.png ( 209.87K ) Number of downloads: 9


East

The winter will start off slow this year with warmer then normal temperatures dominating december, despite a -NAO pattern. Lower then normal snowfall is likely across the mid atlantic and coastal plain while the interior northeast, northern new england and eastern great lakes have the potential to see normal snowfall. The storm track will stay predominantly inland with one branch of the jet stream dominating. Great lakes cutters will occur most frequently as well as colorado lows. Apps runners and coastal lows will be less common but can occur once or twice in december. By January and february cold air masses will shift eastwards into the region as the storm track continues to shift SE. The southeast will continue to remain warmer then normal but winter will pack a punch to the north. I am expecting above normal snowfall in the eastern ohio valley, great lakes and interior northeast. Slightly colder then normal temps are likely across new england and the northeast with clippers sliding southeast. The NAO will stay variable in january with a strong GOA high/-EPO dominating. In february, snowy conditions are likely across the ohio valley, great lakes and the northeast. If one month will deliver a couple coastal's for the I-95 snow geese it will happen in february. The storm track will continue to shift SE as a more el nino type of pattern sets up with a +PNA setup. The Southeast stays warm and dry in february as a weak southeast ridge holds up.

Great write-up. Definitely agree on the SE Ridge and how the brunt of winter will come in the latter half. If the CFS is correct, we could see a rather early Canadian snow pack. Such a development could secure a colder air mass up in the Arctic.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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blizzardOf96
post Aug 18 2013, 12:51 PM
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QUOTE(mupawxnut @ Aug 18 2013, 12:56 PM) *
Question: Are you expecting an actual El Nino to develop in late winter/spring 2014, or just a warm-neutral pattern?


I am expecting a warm neutral setup from march-may 2014.

This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Aug 18 2013, 12:51 PM


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jdrenken
post Aug 18 2013, 01:15 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 18 2013, 09:55 AM) *
You better believe it!! I guarantee you that JD hopes what you're thinking verifies also...but he's a lot more objective than most of us winter weather nuts. laugh.gif


If anyone questions my love of cold and snowy weather, they need to read my post in the GHD Blizzard Forecast and OBS thread. My point is simple..the CFS has always been the laughing stock model, and if anything, when the CPC version "is consistent", yet the dailies are anything but consistent red flags need to be raised.

The race to put out a winter forecast is getting sooo ridiculous that professional mets are creating "memes" warning the public that they are coming! rolleyes.gif

For the love of Pete, Accuweather just released their Fall Forecast!

The only time "some" people praise the CFS v2 is when it shows what they want and then complain when it flips! Honestly...where is the objectivity in that?


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grace
post Aug 18 2013, 01:40 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Aug 18 2013, 01:15 PM) *
If anyone questions my love of cold and snowy weather, they need to read my post in the GHD Blizzard Forecast and OBS thread. My point is simple..the CFS has always been the laughing stock model, and if anything, when the CPC version "is consistent", yet the dailies are anything but consistent red flags need to be raised.

The race to put out a winter forecast is getting sooo ridiculous that professional mets are creating "memes" warning the public that they are coming! rolleyes.gif

For the love of Pete, Accuweather just released their Fall Forecast!

The only time "some" people praise the CFS v2 is when it shows what they want and then complain when it flips! Honestly...where is the objectivity in that?


Just making sure you knew my post was a compliment. I know you love tracking winter storms. wink.gif

I was just making sure everyone else knew that too...instead thinking you're a party pooper. tongue.gif
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jdrenken
post Aug 18 2013, 02:12 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Aug 18 2013, 01:40 PM) *
Just making sure you knew my post was a compliment. I know you love tracking winter storms. wink.gif

I was just making sure everyone else knew that too...instead thinking you're a party pooper. tongue.gif


I knew where your spin was going.

Oh...and let them think how they want of me. wink.gif


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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The Snowman
post Aug 18 2013, 02:53 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Aug 18 2013, 01:15 PM) *
If anyone questions my love of cold and snowy weather, they need to read my post in the GHD Blizzard Forecast and OBS thread. My point is simple..the CFS has always been the laughing stock model, and if anything, when the CPC version "is consistent", yet the dailies are anything but consistent red flags need to be raised.

Let's expand our horizons and take a look at some other models.

GFDL forecast over a few months, valid December 2013.

Forecast from May
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME..._z200_lead7.png

Forecast from June
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME..._z200_lead6.png

Forecast from July
http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/NMME..._z200_lead5.png


Continuing on with the NASA forecast.

Forecast from May


Forecast from June


Forecast from July


What do we see in all of these forecasts?
Many of the same things we saw in the CFS forecasts.

-Ridge in Greenland
-Troughing in Canada into the US
-Strengthened E. Asian jet stream
-Ridging pattern along the western North American coast
-Slight indication of high pressure off the Southeast US coast

QUOTE
You know darn well that pressures in the 200mb level don't translate down verbatim for one. Let alone you are using a completely different dataset as if it's gospel. The dailies prove that the CFS v2 is not consistent...plain and simple!


They may not translate down to the mid levels exactly, but they sure don't do the opposite of what is shown. And I'll be happy to use your preferred dataset at the mid levels rather than the upper:

DJF 500mb forecast


Look at that, they're showing the same thing. You can't use differences in daily runs to solidify your point; when looking at the differences, do you check the actual 500mb or 200mb charts like the one above as well to see the difference? If three separate models (one of which using two datasets) is not consistency, I don't know what is.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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VASnowstormHunte...
post Aug 18 2013, 03:14 PM
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I have to say after scrolling through the past few pages ( I hadnt been back in a while )... Im certainly not ready to even think about issuing a winter forecast yet. Given the way the past two years has gone with respect to issued forecasts back in August and September, they are about as good as the paper ( or computer screen ) they are written on at this point.

That's certainly not to disenfranchise anyone who has put one out there... but we've seen wild swings the past two years and when a lot of us were convinced of a good winter in 11-12, we got torched. When we thought 12-13 would be better... most of us had to wait until February or beyond. Let's just sit back and see how this plays out before issuing the maps and what not. There are PLENTY of individual factors to discuss and debate on.

I will say that ENSO looks to be neutral... Im not siding with the weak La Nina folks because cold anomalies should be confined to the eastern most regions. There is a very large warmer than normal pool of water below the surface across most of the Pacific right now, which will inhibit La Nina down the road. Secondly, if you look at the most recent IRI release... only 2 of 25 models show a downward trend in the 3.4 region between now and DJF and many show an upward trend the deeper we move into winter. Granted this is subject to change, but it is what it is.

I will also say that Im not convinced of a full blown negative PDO this winter... the positive anomalies north of the equator and east of 160W are MUCH greater than the previous 3 mid-August's thus far. The closest and most recent mid August that looks like today's was 2009. Even if we do end up with a negative PDO, the eastern Pacific SST's profile could end up being very different than that of the past three winters. With that said, Im not ready to jump on the "-PDO means death to most of the east coast bandwagon".

The other variables, such as NAO, AO, EPO, etc. etc. etc., we dont know about and wont know about until right before and during winter. I know we can create all of the reanalysis and correlation charts based off everything under the sun, but Ive learned ( in a hard way many years ago ) that they have severe limitations and those limitations are quickly met when December comes around. To say we are going to have a -NAO this winter in August, well there is no substantial proof you could put in front of me that would make me agree with you... its in mother nature's hands and to be honest, thats the beauty of it.

Ive been here long enough to see for sure barnburner winters turn into absolute nightmares and absolute nightmares turn into barnburners. At the end of the day... we ALL are at the mercy of something we will never fully understand and will awe us for the rest of our lives.

Enjoy smile.gif
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grace
post Aug 18 2013, 07:15 PM
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From: Paducah, Ky
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I think my winter forecast will consist of laying four options on the table & then doing a coin flip tournament. The winning option will be my forecast. I'll have as good of a shot as anyone without doing all the work. laugh.gif

But I know the work part is the fun of it.

This post has been edited by grace: Aug 18 2013, 07:15 PM
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