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> Long Range Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
NorEaster07
post Sep 1 2013, 07:14 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Aug 31 2013, 09:43 PM) *
12z GFS has a 1.10% increase in snow cover by the 192 hour mark.


Keep us posted on the snowcover. Euro showing it expanding down to Latitude 56N.

12z showing .80qpf which should be snow Wednesday evening to Thursday morning.

Attached File  Data7.jpg ( 76.35K ) Number of downloads: 9


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
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weather_boy2010
post Sep 1 2013, 07:52 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Sep 1 2013, 08:52 AM) *
Looking back at CFSv2 verification for the last 2 months...

August - verified with a cooler than average East and warmer than average NW, but was too widespread with the cold departures. Notice how it has the Central and the Rockies cooler than average too, which could be related to how it completely missed the heat wave there.

[attachment=204697:August_cfs.gif]

[attachment=204698:August_temp.png]

July - generally good, I would say. Not many errors to point out.

[attachment=204699:July_cfs.gif]

[attachment=204700:July_temp.png]

These are just the 2 latest months - going a bit more back, June and May weren't too bad, with the main error in May from the CFS failing to extend the anomalous warmth into the OH Valley, and in April the CFS missed the anomalous cold departures in the Midwest and most members were incorrect depicting a cooler than average East, where temperatures were 0-3 degrees above average. In March, some members overestimated blocking with the northern US warmer than average, while almost all members underestimated western ridging, and in February almost all members completely missed the colder than average departures in the SW US. The CFS practically nailed the December torch but was an epic fail for January by completely missing the eastern torch - all members agreed on at least -3 degrees colder than average in the East, reality was 2-3 degrees warmer than average.

Like I said before, the CFS has its share of good and bad times... the bad times being when it completely messes up the forecast. FWIW, its members average to a near-slightly warmer than average September in the NE.

CFS for December (actual temp anomalies on bottom right):

[attachment=204701:dec.gif]

January:

[attachment=204702:jan.gif]


NYSuburbs... Where did these (referring to the CFS images) come from? I used to have the link bookmarked, but I cannot seem to find it. unsure.gif
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The Snowman
post Sep 1 2013, 09:19 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 1 2013, 07:14 PM) *
Keep us posted on the snowcover. Euro showing it expanding down to Latitude 56N.

12z showing .80qpf which should be snow Wednesday evening to Thursday morning.

Attached File  Data7.jpg ( 76.35K ) Number of downloads: 9

Today's 0z had a +1.28% increase by Hour 192, and the latest 18z went with a +1.20% increase. Image shown is the 0z.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  NH_SNOWCPER_sfc_192__1_.gif ( 16.31K ) Number of downloads: 6
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 3.0" (Updated 12/17/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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The Day After To...
post Sep 1 2013, 10:28 PM
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Plus 1.20...does that mean 120%, or 1.20%

(The first is 1.2, the second is 0.012)


--------------------
"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
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The Snowman
post Sep 1 2013, 10:48 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Sep 1 2013, 10:28 PM) *
Plus 1.20...does that mean 120%, or 1.20%

(The first is 1.2, the second is 0.012)

I'm pretty sure it means 1.2%, as in 0.012.
But maybe someone who knows the Instantweathermaps founder could find out. I remember a user on here saying he knew the founder, but I can't remember the user's name for the life of me.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 3.0" (Updated 12/17/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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The Day After To...
post Sep 1 2013, 10:50 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 1 2013, 11:48 PM) *
I'm pretty sure it means 1.2%, as in 0.012.
But maybe someone who knows the Instantweathermaps founder could find out. I remember a user on here saying he knew the founder, but I can't remember the user's name for the life of me.

okie(insert number here)

Is that increase based off of area all ready covered, or total area? Map is kind of vague actually.


--------------------
"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
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NorEaster07
post Sep 2 2013, 11:46 AM
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Having tropical air past few days and warm temps I've gotten into the "need winter" mode again. I can't wait even just to follow something wintry. Maybe I'll look at the CFS again to get refreshed. laugh.gif
Or just relive some past moments like you guys did the other day. 75 Dewpoint is horrible here.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
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The Day After To...
post Sep 2 2013, 12:05 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 2 2013, 12:46 PM) *
Having tropical air past few days and warm temps I've gotten into the "need winter" mode again. I can't wait even just to follow something wintry. Maybe I'll look at the CFS again to get refreshed. laugh.gif
Or just relive some past moments like you guys did the other day. 75 Dewpoint is horrible here.

Boxing Day threads anyone? Oh man, that storm was PERFECT for my area. How did you guys do in Southern CT?

Anyway, I have my preliminary winter forecast thought out, just need to do a few things then it's ready to post on the 15th.



--------------------
"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


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Noreasterwarn WX
http://noreasterwarn.blogspot.com
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The Snowman
post Sep 2 2013, 12:16 PM
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No doubt about it, fall is on the way. The clouds today just scream fall- I believe they're stratocumulus. Those clouds, combined with cooler, drier air... Now, fall isn't here yet, but it certainly isn't far away.

And you know what fall means... One season closer to winter.

This post has been edited by The Snowman: Sep 2 2013, 12:17 PM


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 3.0" (Updated 12/17/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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NorEaster07
post Sep 2 2013, 12:26 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Sep 2 2013, 01:05 PM) *
Boxing Day threads anyone? Oh man, that storm was PERFECT for my area. How did you guys do in Southern CT?



Ahhh, that did it. Perfect. Just watched my video of that storm. Nice Satellite loop of it at 4:55.
http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=mNQCnl44Bt0

Only 14" for that one but winds were the strongest.. 16" 2 weeks later. Then 19" 2 weeks after that.


QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 2 2013, 01:16 PM) *
No doubt about it, fall is on the way. The clouds today just scream fall- I believe they're stratocumulus. Those clouds, combined with cooler, drier air... Now, fall isn't here yet, but it certainly isn't far away.

And you know what fall means... One season closer to winter.


Yup, another few days & I'll be seeing that too.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.8"
2014-15: 0.8"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.8"
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mr freeze
post Sep 2 2013, 01:03 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Sep 2 2013, 01:26 PM) *
I like fall. The beautiful look of GFS fantasy storms.



I am with ya on loving Autum (Fall). For me, its the early stages of knowing the best times are right around the corner. Then there is the football, the earlier darkness in the evenings, and those great crisp mornings to wake up to.


And I could only dream of another boxing day repeat this upcoming winter. Actually, I would even prefer the Blizzard of 96' even more. It is encouraging to see the vast majority of winter outlooks to date (both amateur and professional) stronly favor a colder winter than normal but like I've said before, I' ve allowed myself to be let down too many times before to know better than to take all these winter outlooks as gospel. Looking forward to your forecast on Sept 15th.


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"FOR THE WINTER 2014-15........If the Modoki Nino forms......LOOK OUT! Is it really possible to top last winter?
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The Snowman
post Sep 2 2013, 01:10 PM
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The last three GFS runs (0z, 6z and 12z) have had more than a 1.10% increase in snow cover over the next 192 hours.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 3.0" (Updated 12/17/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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The Day After To...
post Sep 2 2013, 01:19 PM
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Ah...fall...when the winter thread gets cranking.

tongue.gif


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"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


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Noreasterwarn WX
http://noreasterwarn.blogspot.com
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jdrenken
post Sep 2 2013, 02:51 PM
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Sigh...


This is not a historical or a fall thread. Consider it the last heads up.


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mr freeze
post Sep 2 2013, 07:58 PM
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Joe Bastardi is calling for a cold and snowy winter for the eastern part of the US


Source: Weatherbell


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"FOR THE WINTER 2014-15........If the Modoki Nino forms......LOOK OUT! Is it really possible to top last winter?
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RobB
post Sep 2 2013, 09:26 PM
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QUOTE(mr freeze @ Sep 2 2013, 08:58 PM) *
Joe Bastardi is calling for a cold and snowy winter for the eastern part of the US


Source: Weatherbell


There wouldn't be much shock in that as it seems he rarely calls for anything else.

I will say I did see he threw a few analog graphics out in which January and especially February showed cold anomalies (December showed warm anomalies) but I did not see and actual forecasts from him especially precip wise. Do you have commercial level access to WeatherBell or did I miss something?
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comet1510
post Sep 2 2013, 10:08 PM
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What are some good free sites to look at the models now that Allen Hoffman's site is a paid one? I have used twisterdata in the past. Thanks for any help.
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mr freeze
post Sep 2 2013, 10:21 PM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Sep 2 2013, 10:26 PM) *
There wouldn't be much shock in that as it seems he rarely calls for anything else.

I will say I did see he threw a few analog graphics out in which January and especially February showed cold anomalies (December showed warm anomalies) but I did not see and actual forecasts from him especially precip wise. Do you have commercial level access to WeatherBell or did I miss something?


Good to see you back, Rob! No, I don't have commercial access! I wish I did but not sure how much it costs to upgrade. You may have missed the post titled "Winter Ideas" during late August. If you read look at the last part of the post, you'll see the full blown hinted indication. He hasn't broke it down to specifics yet but there isnt much suspense left as to what to expect. What you referred to was a post from today. That most closely resembles the winter of 2006-07. Look back in the archives for the post "winter ideas"

Are you on Weatherbell? Just was wondering if you knew Tom M. Great guy, I met him last month as he flew in from Chicago.


By the way, the last time I recall Bastardi calling for a warm winter in the east was 2007-08! I sure hope all this talk of a harsh winter comes to fruition!


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"FOR THE WINTER 2014-15........If the Modoki Nino forms......LOOK OUT! Is it really possible to top last winter?
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stuffradio
post Sep 3 2013, 12:05 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Sep 2 2013, 07:26 PM) *
There wouldn't be much shock in that as it seems he rarely calls for anything else.

I will say I did see he threw a few analog graphics out in which January and especially February showed cold anomalies (December showed warm anomalies) but I did not see and actual forecasts from him especially precip wise. Do you have commercial level access to WeatherBell or did I miss something?

To be fair, most people never or rarely say anything else.

This post has been edited by stuffradio: Sep 3 2013, 12:06 AM
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conifer1
post Sep 3 2013, 04:57 AM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Sep 3 2013, 12:05 AM) *
To be fair, most people never or rarely say anything else.


I am a member of Weatherbell, love Joes Forecasting but his latest thoughts are pretty much the same in that he posts whatever comes to mind and the reader has to fill in the blanks really but it is most often the same thing really, hopefully we can get some of his prior thoughts to fruition


--------------------
Snow in the South is wonderful. It has a kind of magic and mystery that it has nowhere else. And the reason for this is that it comes to people in the South not as the grim, unyielding tenant of Winter's keep, but as a strange and wild visitor from the secret North - Thomas Wolfe
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