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> Long Range Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
RobB
post Sep 3 2013, 06:50 AM
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QUOTE(mr freeze @ Sep 2 2013, 11:21 PM) *
Good to see you back, Rob! No, I don't have commercial access! I wish I did but not sure how much it costs to upgrade. You may have missed the post titled "Winter Ideas" during late August. If you read look at the last part of the post, you'll see the full blown hinted indication. He hasn't broke it down to specifics yet but there isnt much suspense left as to what to expect. What you referred to was a post from today. That most closely resembles the winter of 2006-07. Look back in the archives for the post "winter ideas"

Are you on Weatherbell? Just was wondering if you knew Tom M. Great guy, I met him last month as he flew in from Chicago.


By the way, the last time I recall Bastardi calling for a warm winter in the east was 2007-08! I sure hope all this talk of a harsh winter comes to fruition!


Thanks for the welcome back Mr. Freeze! I shall check out the archives of Weatherbell. I do indeed have a subscription with them. I do read the opinion pieces also but I really like the work Dr. Maue has done with the model data.

I, like you, hope for a cold and snowy season myself smile.gif

Take care..
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goblue96
post Sep 3 2013, 09:27 AM
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QUOTE(mr freeze @ Sep 2 2013, 08:58 PM) *
Joe Bastardi is calling for a cold and snowy winter for the eastern part of the US
Source: Weatherbell


When was the last time he called for a cold and snowy winter for the western part of the US?


--------------------
First Day above 60: April 2

First Day above 65: April 10

First Day above 70: April 13

First Day above 75: April 13

First Day above 80: May 12

First Day above 85: May 12

First Day above 90:

First Day above 95:

Days 90+:
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The Day After To...
post Sep 3 2013, 09:44 AM
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Been looking at the three CFS seasonals. All three call for an average or below average winter in the northeast. Images below.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  image.jpg ( 202.34K ) Number of downloads: 6
Attached File  image.jpg ( 194.23K ) Number of downloads: 4
Attached File  image.jpg ( 195.68K ) Number of downloads: 3
 


--------------------
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mr freeze
post Sep 3 2013, 09:49 AM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Sep 3 2013, 10:44 AM) *
Been looking at the three CFS seasonals. All three call for an average or below average winter in the northeast. Images below.



Its always a good thing when there are no red paint bombs on those maps. Almost time to get the heavier clothing unpacked!


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"FOR THE WINTER 2014-15........If the Modoki Nino forms......LOOK OUT! Is it really possible to top last winter?
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The Day After To...
post Sep 3 2013, 09:51 AM
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Yup. It has even been slacking off the fall warmth, as you can see in my fall thread post. Out of the three winter months, December looks the warmest, and "warmest" may be an overstatement.


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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 3 2013, 09:51 AM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Sep 3 2013, 12:05 AM) *
To be fair, most people never or rarely say anything else.

they do, it just doesnt get posted or advertised because its the unfavorable solution wink.gif

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Sep 3 2013, 01:14 PM
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ErieWx
post Sep 3 2013, 12:37 PM
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New ENSO discussion out.

ENSO Alert System Status: Not Active

ENSO
-neutral conditions continue.*
Equatorial sea surface temperatures (SST) are above average across the western
Pacific, near average in the central Pacific, and below average in the eastern Pacific.


This post has been edited by ErieWx: Sep 3 2013, 12:39 PM
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NorEaster07
post Sep 3 2013, 12:43 PM
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Strange it seems like everytime I click to check the CFSv2 its showing some kind of coolness in the Northeast/New England. Wish I saved a few more files.

Is there a way to get a history of it?
Does it have a usual cool bias or is it coincidental? (I don't check everyday but strange when I do check)
How many times does it update each day?

This is the seasonal departures. December doesn't look to cool, January is very warm across the U.S. but February is probably the main reason for these cool departures as it looks like a very cold month across the U.S.

All based on the latest update.

Attached File  CFS8.jpg ( 274.79K ) Number of downloads: 2


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Sep 3 2013, 01:01 PM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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The Day After To...
post Sep 3 2013, 12:44 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 3 2013, 01:43 PM) *
Strange everytime I click to check the CFSv2 its showing some kind of coolness in the Northeast/New England. Does it have a usual cool bias or is it coincidental? (I don't check everyday but strange when I do check)

This is the seasonal departures. December doesn't look to cool, January is very warm across the U.S. but February is probably the main reason for these cool departures as it looks like a very cold month across the U.S.

All based on the latest update.

Attached File  CFS8.jpg ( 274.79K ) Number of downloads: 2

I posted CFS above,looks nothing like that.


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NorEaster07
post Sep 3 2013, 12:48 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Sep 3 2013, 01:44 PM) *
I posted CFS above,looks nothing like that.


I see, is it the site difference or a newer update? Definitely different.

Edit.... ahh, I see, color table legend is different. White = -0.5 to +.5 on one. While light blue on the other map = -2.0 to 0. rolleyes.gif So in other words, -0.5 would show up as blues on one map but white on the other.



This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Sep 3 2013, 01:01 PM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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The Day After To...
post Sep 3 2013, 12:48 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 3 2013, 01:48 PM) *
I see, is it the site difference or a newer update? Definitely different.

Most CFS I look ar in the last two weeks (And I check daily) show a below average JAN or average JAN for the northeast.


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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 3 2013, 01:18 PM
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December has predominantly looked to be above average on pretty much everything I have PERSONALLY seen. Thats a bummer becuase if I had to choose 1 of the 3 months to be most "average to below averge" its December

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Sep 3 2013, 01:18 PM
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NorEaster07
post Sep 3 2013, 01:29 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 3 2013, 02:18 PM) *
December has predominantly looked to be above average on pretty much everything I have PERSONALLY seen. Thats a bummer becuase if I had to choose 1 of the 3 months to be most "average to below averge" its December


I agree with this that December more times looks warm more than cool and want to clarify the "seasonal" images I was talking about. But I realized why and retract that statement now. a -2 below departure that turns into just -0.5 below on the next update would still have the same blues on the map and that's why I'm seeing the blues more often. Horrible color table. Horrible.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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The Day After To...
post Sep 3 2013, 01:36 PM
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I think that December will be above average in the Midwest and MidAtl, but I think New England may run aveage to a little below average,


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My blog, Nor'easter Warn (N'EW)


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Spring Forecast: March 15


"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
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STORM ALERT
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The Snowman
post Sep 3 2013, 04:41 PM
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Ho hum.

Quiet severe weather season, quiet tropical season... if the winter season follows suit, there won't be any hair left to pull out because this is just to frustrating.

On another note, the stratosphere is just itching to get going for the winter.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  ep_12z_tr_nh.gif ( 211.14K ) Number of downloads: 6
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014 Severe Weather Season
Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
High Risk Days: 0


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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The Snowman
post Sep 3 2013, 04:45 PM
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Latest DJF forecast from the CA model at the CPC was issued just today, and shows a rather favorable set-up across the Atlantic and Pacific for this winter. Persistent ridging in the Bering Sea and across Greenland leads to the obvious -NAO, but also a higher chance of SSW events.



Temperature anomaly forecast tells the story that everyone wants to hear but won't admit to for fear of jinxing it (and yes, I am one of those people).



Precipitation... meh.



And for whoever cares, the DJF SST chart.



--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014 Severe Weather Season
Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
High Risk Days: 0


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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jdrenken
post Sep 3 2013, 04:49 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Sep 3 2013, 01:36 PM) *
I think that December will be above average in the Midwest and MidAtl, but I think New England may run aveage to a little below average,


Bring some backing to that.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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Juniorrr
post Sep 3 2013, 04:53 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 3 2013, 05:41 PM) *
Ho hum.

Quiet severe weather season, quiet tropical season... if the winter season follows suit, there won't be any hair left to pull out because this is just to frustrating.

On another note, the stratosphere is just itching to get going for the winter.

I hope the quiet trend will not continue into the winter biggrin.gif. It could be a sign winter will be bigger than normal though so I'll live on that thought rolleyes.gif
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jdrenken
post Sep 3 2013, 04:55 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 3 2013, 12:48 PM) *
I see, is it the site difference or a newer update? Definitely different.

Edit.... ahh, I see, color table legend is different. White = -0.5 to +.5 on one. While light blue on the other map = -2.0 to 0. rolleyes.gif So in other words, -0.5 would show up as blues on one map but white on the other.


Because your link shows dailies while the CPC CFS shows weekly initial conditions.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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The Snowman
post Sep 3 2013, 04:59 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 3 2013, 04:55 PM) *
Because your link shows dailies while the CPC CFS shows weekly initial conditions.

Not to mention the NCEP's insistence on using Kelvin anomalies rather than Celsius or Fahrenheit.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014 Severe Weather Season
Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
High Risk Days: 0


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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