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> Long Range Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
NYCSuburbs
post Jun 18 2013, 07:26 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 18 2013, 07:40 AM) *
I was looking at CPC's temp outlook for upcoming months and there are no blues on the map whatsoever.... then I remembered this..

They're thoughts on M-A-M on left and actual on right.
[attachment=201985:temps34.jpg]

[attachment=201986:temps35.jpg]

The only reason I ever use their maps is to identify the potential ENSO state during the winter. Based on the setup of these maps (not the temperature outlook itself, there's so many things wrong there in the last few years I won't even bother start talking about that) I would assume they're going on a weak positive ENSO. We'll see what happens this year as last year we were also looking for an El Nino in 2012-13 which rapidly collapsed in the late summer-early fall.
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The Snowman
post Jun 18 2013, 03:43 PM
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FWIW, my preliminary winter forecast. I couldn't wait any longer tongue.gif

http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/p/pre...r-forecast.html


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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blizzardOf96
post Jun 20 2013, 08:10 AM
Post #63




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Oceanic kelvin wave really destroying any cool sst anomalies in the east pacific. Negative iod helping to strengthen westerlies near the dateline. Let the back and forth continue.
Attached File  image.jpg ( 178.15K ) Number of downloads: 0


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Check Out My Weather Blog:

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/


Follow me on Twitter: @Blizzardof96

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NorEaster07
post Jun 21 2013, 07:32 PM
Post #64




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CFS December minimum temps.

http://clients.customweather.com/plot_imag...V2/final_CL001/

Attached File  CFS.jpg ( 234.79K ) Number of downloads: 7


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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The Snowman
post Jun 21 2013, 09:34 PM
Post #65




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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jun 21 2013, 07:32 PM) *
CFS December minimum temps.

http://clients.customweather.com/plot_imag...V2/final_CL001/

Attached File  CFS.jpg ( 234.79K ) Number of downloads: 7

DJF Temperature departure...



--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jun 22 2013, 12:18 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jun 21 2013, 09:34 PM) *
DJF Temperature departure...


this would be easily beleiveable if the current pattern we've seen the last 5 months continues but I expect it'll break at some point before november
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NorEaster07
post Jun 27 2013, 06:51 AM
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Steve D tid bit

QUOTE
Thoughts On The QBO- A Preliminary Look At Winter

Currently the 50 MB QBO anomaly is at -6.44 m/s. Now remember, the QBO is the measure of stratospheric winds. Positive stands for westerly winds and negative stands for easterly winds. When the anomaly exceeds 10 m/s, then the QBO enhances stratospheric influence on the troposphere and helps support high latitude blocking. An easterly wind is (negative anomaly) is better for high latitude blocking enhancement as an easterly wind transports warm air from the tropics into the higher latitudes.

Over the past three months, the QBO has trended weaker but still negative in nature, which supports the continuation of weak high latitude blocking. As always, you have to look at the atmospheric system as a chaotic system with many influences. This is just one influence but an important one in the Fall and Winter. Should the QBO trend towards a neutral state, the influence of stratospheric warming at the higher latitudes is far more difficult to translate into the troposphere. However, if the QBO at 50 MB and 30 MB trends back towards -10 m/s, then the potential for warmer stratospheric air from the tropical to move into the polar regions is far greater. This process thus forces a transport of warmer air towards the troposphere and enhances high latitude blocking typically forcing a more negative Arctic Oscillation and potentially a more pronounced west based negative NAO.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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The Snowman
post Jul 4 2013, 07:24 PM
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Bump, the QBO is going positive.



--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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The Snowman
post Jul 4 2013, 07:42 PM
Post #69




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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jul 4 2013, 07:24 PM) *
Bump, the QBO is going positive.


Building on to this...

The correlation between the AAM and QBO is 0.391 per the ESRL time series web site. Looking back at AAM values for June, we see an increase in the AAM from Phase 3 to 5 in the opening couple weeks of June, shown below.



The Relative AAM tendency for June was nearly off the chart at one point of the month in the positive range, which then resulted in that phase shift from 3 to 5 (and maintenance of the AAM at a weak (but still positive) value):



Looking at the AAM tendency for July/late June above, it looks like we're plummeting into deep negative territory. This has been reflected by the AAM shift to Phases 8-2, and the latter number is where the month of July begins.

Using the AAM/QBO correlation, it may be worth noting that the QBO could back off on its positive motion, although with the latest GEFS forecast showing a less-than-enthusiastic low AAM in coming days, I wouldn't anticipate a sudden drop to neutral values in the QBO. We'll need a solid low AAM burst to put a wrench in the positive QBO.

The good news- It's the fourth of July, not early October. We've got time for the QBO to change. The bad news- a glance over past +QBO events tells me that it is very possible we see a +QBO this winter, as the current +QBO pulse began earlier in the year and has just recently passed the 50mb mark in its attempt to propagate down to the surface.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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grace
post Jul 5 2013, 12:55 PM
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CPC Predicitons

QUOTE
The U.S. government weather forecaster said on Friday that neutral conditions will last longer than previously expected, reducing the chance that the La Nina or El Nino patterns that play havoc with global weather will materialize this year.


http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/07/05/...ctor&rpc=43
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The Snowman
post Jul 5 2013, 06:59 PM
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Took a little time this evening to put together winters that included a positive QBO and neutral ENSO state, which could very well be the road we are heading towards this winter.

Precipitation, temperature and 500mb anomalies are shown.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Positive_QBO_Neutral_ENSO_500mb.png ( 13.33K ) Number of downloads: 7
Attached File  Positive_QBO_Neutral_ENSO_Precip.png ( 100.22K ) Number of downloads: 6
Attached File  Positive_QBO_Neutral_ENSO_Temp.png ( 134.45K ) Number of downloads: 6
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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Chambana
post Jul 5 2013, 07:07 PM
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Yikes, that does not look pretty. With a possible no el niņo or la Nina influencing this weather pattern this winter, our key players Will of course be nao/ao,qbo, Greenland block.

Still to early to make assumptions. But one thing is for certain this winter will be totally different than the previous 2.
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The Snowman
post Jul 6 2013, 06:02 PM
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Got creative last night and decided to look up winters that included a +QBO pulse beginning mid-year (like we have now). 500mb, temperature and precipitation anomalies are shown.

After looking at each year individually, the strongest continuity was certainly the below normal temperatures in the northern Plains, along with above normal temperatures in the Southeast. A trend of ridging in the north Pacific was also prevalent.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  juneQBOprecip.png ( 84.77K ) Number of downloads: 4
Attached File  juneQBOtemp.png ( 129.9K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  juneQBO500mb.png ( 12.15K ) Number of downloads: 3
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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mr freeze
post Jul 7 2013, 01:20 PM
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Joe Bastardi said on a weatherbell video today that he thinks the winter in the eastern half of the nation will start early and pack a punch although he says he has much to look at in regard to what happens from there going forward! He also added that if the PDO spikes warm in the heart of winter, look out!


--------------------
"FOR THE WINTER 2014-15........If the Modoki Nino forms......LOOK OUT! Is it really possible to top last winter?
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grace
post Jul 7 2013, 04:12 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jul 6 2013, 06:02 PM) *
Got creative last night and decided to look up winters that included a +QBO pulse beginning mid-year (like we have now). 500mb, temperature and precipitation anomalies are shown.

After looking at each year individually, the strongest continuity was certainly the below normal temperatures in the northern Plains, along with above normal temperatures in the Southeast. A trend of ridging in the north Pacific was also prevalent.


That looks like good potential for winter weather in the battle ground there if you can get some storms.
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grace
post Jul 7 2013, 04:13 PM
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QUOTE(mr freeze @ Jul 7 2013, 01:20 PM) *
Joe Bastardi said on a weatherbell video today that he thinks the winter in the eastern half of the nation will start early and pack a punch although he says he has much to look at in regard to what happens from there going forward! He also added that if the PDO spikes warm in the heart of winter, look out!


Joe....just like him to say something like that when winters the subject. laugh.gif

Gotta love him
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The Snowman
post Jul 7 2013, 04:20 PM
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QUOTE(mr freeze @ Jul 7 2013, 01:20 PM) *
Joe Bastardi said on a weatherbell video today that he thinks the winter in the eastern half of the nation will start early and pack a punch although he says he has much to look at in regard to what happens from there going forward! He also added that if the PDO spikes warm in the heart of winter, look out!

In recent developments, the negative PDO has ended. As per the image below and latest PDO values, we are now in a +PDO.


Attached File(s)
Attached File  alaska_cdas1_anom.png ( 261.66K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
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NorEaster07
post Jul 7 2013, 06:38 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Jul 7 2013, 05:20 PM) *
In recent developments, the negative PDO has ended. As per the image below and latest PDO values, we are now in a +PDO.


Good catch. Looks like it popped positive for first time since winter and Spring of 2010.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jul 7 2013, 08:52 PM
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Clearly if this current pattern would have started earlier or later this year we would have seen one of the nastiest winters in YEARS across the east. But no use dwelling....that's not how it worked out. i still think that we'll see this pattern break unfortunately BEFORE winter and the law of averages will play out...but that remains to be seen
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The Snowman
post Jul 8 2013, 10:11 AM
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Now that we're in a +PDO and +QBO pattern, I prepared maps for temperature, precipitation and 500mb anomalies in a winter with these two factors.

Not the sort of winter pattern I'd personally like to see, but luckily these maps only include two of over a dozen factors that go into a seasonal pattern.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Positive_PDO_Positive_QBO_Temp.png ( 120.51K ) Number of downloads: 4
Attached File  Positive_PDO_Positive_QBO_Precip.png ( 105.95K ) Number of downloads: 0
Attached File  Positive_PDO_Positive_QBO_500mb.png ( 13.01K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

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