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> Long Range Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
paletitsnow63
post Sep 3 2013, 08:27 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Sep 3 2013, 09:19 PM) *
I apologize if anyone has spoken of this already, i just didnt see it.

Anyone heard much on what the Farmers Almanac is mentioning for this coming Winter in the good ole Mid-Atl?

Thanks


http://www.farmersalmanac.com/weather/2013...inter-forecast/


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merrychristmas
post Sep 4 2013, 05:22 AM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Sep 3 2013, 01:05 AM) *
To be fair, most people never or rarely say anything else.


True. How many times have we seen people issue a winter outlook with warm or even torch around the lower lakes? almost never. How often did winter end up that way? often enough. The only one that seems to have no problem saying warm winter is NOAA.
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merrychristmas
post Sep 4 2013, 05:27 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 3 2013, 01:43 PM) *
Strange it seems like everytime I click to check the CFSv2 its showing some kind of coolness in the Northeast/New England. Wish I saved a few more files.

Is there a way to get a history of it?
Does it have a usual cool bias or is it coincidental? (I don't check everyday but strange when I do check)
How many times does it update each day?

This is the seasonal departures. December doesn't look to cool, January is very warm across the U.S. but February is probably the main reason for these cool departures as it looks like a very cold month across the U.S.

All based on the latest update.

[attachment=204856:CFS8.jpg]


Almost carbon copy of this past winter. It was warmer to start and the later part was when we actually started to see winter appear. The later we went into last winter, the lower the NAO and the temps relative to normal.
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WEATHERFREAK
post Sep 4 2013, 11:11 AM
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If worse comes to worse, I'd rather have a front-loaded Winter then a back-loader. Like 2000/01 and 2010/11! There's nothing worse then a warm Christmas and Thanksgiving.

This post has been edited by WEATHERFREAK: Sep 4 2013, 12:15 PM


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The Snowman
post Sep 4 2013, 03:45 PM
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GFS continues to call for an increase in snow cover of at least 1.00% for a while now- the last 5 runs have been consistent with 1.20%+.

Could it be a sign of things to come for October, or just a flash in the pan?


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2013-2014: 69.5"
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merrychristmas
post Sep 4 2013, 05:16 PM
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Ok I know it's just the GFS and it's just the 06Z, but the difference between the 06z and the 12z is insane. The 06z solution was about as good as I can imagine it could get for cold air and snowcover to start building fast and the 12z was a plain old torch!

wonderful 06 chilly air 2 weeks into this month:


torch 12z same day. large arctic high is cut off in favor of a zonal flow and warm air floods the region:


Let's hope we get something like the 06 scenario then we will be well on our way into fall and I won't have to overheat when I am out anymore. The 12z would make us have to try to survive more summer.
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grandpaboy
post Sep 4 2013, 10:17 PM
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This is almost comical in this thread........can't wait for winter........... mellow.gif



no pun intended....


--------------------
Winter 2013/14

Season Total thru 3/31/14

49.5 inches.(Per Rutgers University Climate Data site)
++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
Winter 2012/13---------
Season 16.5
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2009/2010
Season 73.9
+++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++++
WINTER 2010/2011
Season total - 49 inches
-------------------------------------------------------------------------------
WINTER 2011/2012
Season Toal - Too little to mention
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NYCSuburbs
post Sep 4 2013, 10:35 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Sep 3 2013, 01:05 AM) *
To be fair, most people never or rarely say anything else.

A lot of winter outlooks I see every year tend to feature a "frigid Midwest", "cold and snowy East", "warm and dry West", and "coastal lows the main storm track". It's not often that I see outlooks that don't have at least 2 of these 4 scenarios, CPC being the obvious exception.
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Chambana
post Sep 4 2013, 11:29 PM
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This is very true, a lot forecasts seem to always favor for a cold outlook for the East, warm outlook for the west. JB, seems to tweet some pretty good information, he especially has an extremely cold bias though.

Snowman, excellent write up you posted last week! Very good read. Have you seen the Greenland blocking? Tis setting up nicely tongue.gif

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Christhebirderan...
post Sep 4 2013, 11:58 PM
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Not sure if PNW will be Warm and Dry really
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Christhebirderan...
post Sep 5 2013, 12:03 AM
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Blue Cold and Snow
Light Blue Cool and Snow
Gray Cool and Wet
Yellow Mild and Wet
Orange Mild and Average Precip or at least Normal
Red Mild and Mostly Dry a few storms although maybe times of freezes
Green Average
Pink Wild on Temps mostly cool and icy
https://fbcdn-sphotos-b-a.akamaihd.net/hpho...363396944_o.jpg
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Stefanos Chrysoc...
post Sep 5 2013, 03:58 AM
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What about Europes winter 2013-2014?
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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 5 2013, 06:52 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Sep 4 2013, 10:35 PM) *
A lot of winter outlooks I see every year tend to feature a "frigid Midwest", "cold and snowy East", "warm and dry West", and "coastal lows the main storm track". It's not often that I see outlooks that don't have at least 2 of these 4 scenarios, CPC being the obvious exception.

yeah...I mean its few and far between to find anything outside of it.....which is why winter tends to let people down 8/10 times lol. Its like picking against your football team in a sports bet. You know theres a chance they get beat, but you'll throw every reason known to man to try and prove otherwise.

This post has been edited by ohiobuckeye45: Sep 5 2013, 06:53 AM
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NorEaster07
post Sep 5 2013, 08:56 AM
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Paul Pastelok's discussion goes over the analog years he found that matches this past summers results. The blend Ends up with a Warm East

The years he used were

1961-62
1967-68
1994-95
1996-97
2001-02
2006-07

All horrible snow years for me.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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kpk33x
post Sep 5 2013, 01:04 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 5 2013, 09:56 AM) *
Paul Pastelok's discussion goes over the analog years he found that matches this past summers results. The blend Ends up with a Warm East

The years he used were

1961-62
1967-68
1994-95
1996-97
2001-02
2006-07

All horrible snow years for me.


Varied here. 94-95 and 01-02 were almost identical torches. 61-62 cold and dry. 67-68 snowier. 96-97 variable with some snow 06-07 torch early freeze late

Curious...how solid will analogs < 30 yrs continue to be with the PDO (I think I'm using the right acronym) going cold? Would that be a game changer?


--------------------
Fall Countdown - Intervale, NH
First sub 50 low - 8/15 (low for season 48F 8/15)
First sub 45 low -
First sub 40 low -
First sub 35 low -
First frost -
First subfreezing low -
First sub 30 low -
First sub 25 low -
First flakes -
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The Day After To...
post Sep 5 2013, 02:32 PM
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Better in SEP than DEC...

(For anyone who doesn't know what this is, this is implying a neutral/positive NAO, which is not that good for east coast snows.)
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The Snowman
post Sep 5 2013, 02:49 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 5 2013, 08:56 AM) *
Paul Pastelok's discussion goes over the analog years he found that matches this past summers results. The blend Ends up with a Warm East

The years he used were

1961-62
1967-68
1994-95
1996-97
2001-02
2006-07

All horrible snow years for me.

Let's break it down.

1961-1962
Cool-neutral ENSO through the winter months. PDO was positive-turned-negative throughout 1961, and remained negative thru 61-62. AMO weakly positive. This year started negative and has been negative, except for a blip during the spring months. AMO and ENSO seem to match up correctly.

1967-1968
Essentially a La Nina by JFM 1968. Steadfast negative PDO, but also a decisively negative AMO throughout 1967 and the winter of 67-68. Not a good analog choice IMO.

1994-1995
El Nino throughout the winter. PDO positive much of the year before turning negative for fall and winter. AMO again decisively negative. I would not support this analog year, either.

1996-1997
La Nina kicked off 1996 before going to a cool-neutral ENSO for much of 1996. DJF featured a borderline Nina. PDO positive throughout 1996 and 96-97. AMO was negative for DJF 96-97. Once again, not a good analog.

2001-2002
Finally a solid ENSO situation with neutral conditions for DJF 01-02. PDO negative for much of 2001 before a positive turn in early 2002, but averaged out neg. for DJF 01-02. Positive AMO. This is an 'OK' analog choice. Iffy with the PDO, but certainly not as bad as the other 3.

2006-2007
The fall of 2006 and much of winter 06-07 had an El Nino. Positive PDO held up throughout 2006 and most of the 06-07 winter. Positive AMO. I wouldn't include it due to ENSO and PDO differences.

I don't really understand how Paul made these analogs. The ENSO, PDO and AMO values are all over the place- some were negative in some years, others were positive in other years. It doesn't make sense. I would not take this analog set and go with it for a forecast.


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2014 Severe Weather Season
Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
High Risk Days: 0


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


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NorEaster07
post Sep 5 2013, 04:17 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 5 2013, 03:49 PM) *
Let's break it down.

I don't really understand how Paul made these analogs. The ENSO, PDO and AMO values are all over the place-.


I believe those winter analogs he used were soley based on the summer results matching this year. Those analog summer years matched our summer this year.


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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jdrenken
post Sep 5 2013, 04:21 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 5 2013, 04:17 PM) *
I believe those winter analogs he used were soley based on the summer results matching this year. Those analog summer years matched our summer this year.


Both you and Paul were very clear on saying that it was based on how the summers matched. Plus...he was talking about how the late September cold shot was based on those analogs because the modeling has been so volatile.


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jdrenken
post Sep 5 2013, 04:41 PM
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Warm SST anomalies in Northern Pacific are being broken down due to strong systems traversing the area.

August 29th


September 2


September 5


Look for the trend to continue.


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It's a work in progress!

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