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> Long Range Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
Weather4LA
post Sep 11 2013, 08:17 PM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Sep 11 2013, 09:25 AM) *
I can't recall what year it actually happened other then it was only a few years back, but I can remember while us folk here in the Mid-Atl were experiencing a "mildish" like Christmas day somewhere in the South (maybe Dallas or Houston) and even over into the Gulf States were enjoying there 1st ever "White Christmas" i can just vaguely remember areas down around the aforementioned getting a few inches of wet snow Christmas morning.

If anyone can help me out with this event then please by all means chime in, as I am only recalling bits and pieces huh.gif

I was living in Baton Rouge, Louisiana at the time. It was Christmas of '04. But the snow was just to the south, along the coast. We just got a few flurries, which, for this area of the country, is very significant at Christmas! And down here the only kind of snow we get is "wet snow", which is pretty good for snowball fights and snowmen. wink.gif


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"Who hath divided a watercourse for the overflowing of waters, or a way for the lightning of thunder; to cause it to rain on the earth, where no man is; on the wilderness, wherein there is no man; to satisfy the desolate and waste ground; and to cause the bud of the tender herb to spring forth? Hath the rain a father? or who hath begotten the drops of dew? Out of whose womb came the ice? and the hoary frost of heaven, who hath gendered it? The waters are hid as with a stone, and the face of the deep is frozen."
-Job 38:25-30
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jdrenken
post Sep 11 2013, 09:53 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Sep 11 2013, 05:13 PM) *
Everyone's got a model.


You will not learn anything with that mentality because it's not so much that everyone has a model, it's that you can correctly figure out if you are drinking the kool-aide that it's serving.

How do I do that you ask? Simple, look at all the tools available to you. Whether it be other models, old school meteorology, or other trends that you see around, you need to look at everything!!!

So...you are at a point where you can choose the path you want to take. Learn or drink the kool-aide.



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QUOTE
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The Snowman
post Sep 11 2013, 11:27 PM
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Analog years of 62-63 and 08-09 are worthless should subsurface warming provide a base for warm neutral or even a weak El Niņo heading into winter, as long as we're discussing analogs.

See you all in mid/late October, when we'll actually have an idea of what to expect.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


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QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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kpk33x
post Sep 12 2013, 07:45 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 11 2013, 10:53 PM) *
So...you are at a point where you can choose the path you want to take. Learn or drink the kool-aide.



Oh no!....Oh no!.... OH YEAH!


--------------------
Fall Countdown - Intervale, NH
First sub 50 low - 8/15
First sub 45 low - 9/9
First sub 40 low - 9/13
First sub 35 low - 9/15 (low for season 33F on 10/13)
First frost - 9/15
First subfreezing low -
First sub 30 low -
First sub 25 low -
First flakes -
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OSNW3
post Sep 12 2013, 08:36 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 11 2013, 11:27 PM) *
See you all in mid/late October, when we'll actually have an idea of what to expect.


Nice. smile.gif


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Fire/Rescue
post Sep 12 2013, 10:17 AM
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QUOTE(goobagooba @ Sep 11 2013, 02:50 PM) *
If you're referring to the Texas coast, then it's 2004.

If you're referring to DFW, 2009 and 2012 were official White Christmases after over an 80 year drought (1926).

That's it pal, I knew it was not to long ago for DFW.

Thanks for the info
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The Day After To...
post Sep 12 2013, 03:30 PM
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JD: As long as your liking for a particular model does not get in the way of your professionalism and forecasting, there is nothing wrong with it. The kool-aide phraise is soooooooo overused, it's not even funny anymore.


--------------------
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jdrenken
post Sep 12 2013, 03:47 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Sep 12 2013, 03:30 PM) *
JD: As long as your liking for a particular model does not get in the way of your professionalism and forecasting, there is nothing wrong with it.


huh.gif blink.gif

You still don't get it. If you can't see through the model's inaccuracies and are showing them in one moment while claiming it as gospel the next; then you are being unprofessional and can't be relied on for the forecast!

QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Sep 12 2013, 03:30 PM) *
The kool-aide phraise is soooooooo overused, it's not even funny anymore.


It wasn't meant to be funny. wink.gif


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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The Day After To...
post Sep 12 2013, 04:28 PM
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You use a model WHEN IT IS APPROPRIATE.

Personal opinion. Every forecaster uses it, some more than others. People have a tendency to use the models that support there opinion.

I think I worded what I said wrong. I DO NOT support model hugging in forecasts, and I apologize to anyone who thought that. I was just responding to what I thought was JD overreacting.

This post has been edited by The Day After Tommorow: Sep 12 2013, 04:30 PM


--------------------
My blog, Nor'easter Warn (N'EW)


N'EW BLOG
Proud to have over 7,000 viewers, with over 13,000 blog views!
Spring Forecast: March 15


"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
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NE MA Weather
post Sep 12 2013, 04:49 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Sep 12 2013, 05:28 PM) *
You use a model WHEN IT IS APPROPRIATE.

Personal opinion. Every forecaster uses it, some more than others. People have a tendency to use the models that support there opinion.

I think I worded what I said wrong. I DO NOT support model hugging in forecasts, and I apologize to anyone who thought that. I was just responding to what I thought was JD overreacting.

Btw the font looks way better


--------------------
Winter 2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 43"

12/6--Coating
12/9--1"
12/10--0.5"
12/14--7"
12/17--5"
12/26--Coating
1/2--13"
1/10--0.5"
1/18--4"
2/3--1"
2/5--9.5"
2/9--0.5"

Winter 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 55"
Greatest snowfall for '12-'13: 21" (2/9)
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Juniorrr
post Sep 12 2013, 05:09 PM
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Today's global SST anomaly view - looks like a breakdown of the warm SSTs in N.PAC as JD mentioned
Attached File(s)
Attached File  anomnight.9.12.2013.gif ( 204.23K ) Number of downloads: 3
 
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Juniorrr
post Sep 12 2013, 05:10 PM
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is that a 956mb storm I see ? - Guessing it will contain the remnants of the possible typhoon re-curving up just east of Japan's coast.

This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Sep 12 2013, 05:32 PM
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Attached File  image01.gif ( 105.18K ) Number of downloads: 1
 
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Chambana
post Sep 12 2013, 06:20 PM
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I guess what agitates me is that people are already riding, the December will be a torch train. People, were are 80 days out from the beginning of December, models struggle 5+ days out. Any forecast is extremely preliminary at this point.

OMG, the winter of 2011-2012 is going to be epic, bitter cold, crushing snowfalls, making 1917-1918 and the late 70s look like child's play. How about an all out torch, with one of the biggest snowfall deficits ever. Lets just sit back and observe at this post, and learn from each others knowledge. This winter should be a fairly decent one in my opinion.

Brutally cold? Possibly no. Astonishing snowfall? More than likely no. How about just a get old fashioned winter, with 3-6 inch events, with a nice arctic dump every 2-3 weeks? Lets face it by the end of it, we all want spring anyway tongue.gif
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jdrenken
post Sep 13 2013, 08:57 AM
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Winter Weather Flights are going to be busy this year with systems in the Gulf of Alaska and off the West Coast already.


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Sep 13 2013, 09:01 AM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Sep 12 2013, 05:09 PM) *
Today's global SST anomaly view - looks like a breakdown of the warm SSTs in N.PAC as JD mentioned



Bringing up things that I mention will only get you in trouble around here. wink.gif rolleyes.gif


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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NorEaster07
post Sep 13 2013, 09:57 AM
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Steve continues hounding on those who issue a winter forecast already. His wont be out until October. Latest discussion mentions if the stratosphere starts cooling, then there's going to be big busts out there.

"Remember, the QBO is positive this year, which means that a rapid switch from cold to warm (major stratospheric warming) is going to be harder to come by. As such, you need an overall warm environment to support high latitude blocking this winter.

If we see a reversal to cooling which isn't expected right now, then all those winter forecasts out there right now would bust horribly. The trends are certainly going in the right direction, but we are not there yet to convincingly support a sustained high latitude blocking regime."


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 13 2013, 02:53 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 13 2013, 08:57 AM) *
Winter Weather Flights are going to be busy this year with systems in the Gulf of Alaska and off the West Coast already.

The PAC NW seems already geared up for an active one
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The Day After To...
post Sep 13 2013, 03:03 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 13 2013, 10:01 AM) *
Bringing up things that I mention will only get you in trouble around here. wink.gif rolleyes.gif

How about you explain that to the newcomers?


--------------------
My blog, Nor'easter Warn (N'EW)


N'EW BLOG
Proud to have over 7,000 viewers, with over 13,000 blog views!
Spring Forecast: March 15


"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


STORM ALERT
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gulfofslides
post Sep 13 2013, 03:31 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 13 2013, 09:57 AM) *
Steve continues hounding on those who issue a winter forecast already. His wont be out until October. Latest discussion mentions if the stratosphere starts cooling, then there's going to be big busts out there.

"Remember, the QBO is positive this year, which means that a rapid switch from cold to warm (major stratospheric warming) is going to be harder to come by. As such, you need an overall warm environment to support high latitude blocking this winter.

If we see a reversal to cooling which isn't expected right now, then all those winter forecasts out there right now would bust horribly. The trends are certainly going in the right direction, but we are not there yet to convincingly support a sustained high latitude blocking regime."

Steve who? blink.gif
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blizzardOf96
post Sep 13 2013, 03:45 PM
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QUOTE(gulfofslides @ Sep 13 2013, 04:31 PM) *
Steve who? blink.gif


Dimartino.


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http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/


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