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> Long Range Winter 2013-2014 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
stuffradio
post Sep 13 2013, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 13 2013, 12:53 PM) *
The PAC NW seems already geared up for an active one

Does that mean Snow for us this year?
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weather_boy2010
post Sep 13 2013, 06:25 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Sep 13 2013, 03:03 PM) *
How about you explain that to the newcomers?


I was unaware that having been a member for three years was considered new, but here, I'll explain anyway...

He is referring to the fact that he is actually discussing science and pattern recognition. Typically how it tends to work is that when someone agrees with him, if it is against the grain of what everyone wants to hear or isn't discussing a model, they are chastised for it.
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weatherpredictor...
post Sep 13 2013, 06:33 PM
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Hello everybody,
I know it is way too early to tell but are there any predictions for Philadelphia this winter? I have never really seen a Blizzard in my area for a while and was wondering if this is my chance. I saw a blizzard when I was like 5 years old but I can't really remember it so I want one that i'll remember.
I think 2009-2010 had the most snow ever in my area, so I don't think this year will beat that year.
I have looked at a lot of the predictions and it looks like this year will be a snowy year.
Thanks,
WeatherPredictor123


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OSNW3
post Sep 13 2013, 06:55 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Sep 13 2013, 03:03 PM) *
How about you explain that to the newcomers?


It's in his signature.


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The Snowman
post Sep 13 2013, 08:43 PM
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Quick note before preseason hockey starts tomorrow and productivity takes a dive:

12z GFS has a +1.66% change in snow cover over the next 192 hours. Good trends for the October SAI.

http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/...fc&hour=192


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Slight Risk Days: 11
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Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


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The Day After To...
post Sep 13 2013, 08:53 PM
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LOL, I didn't mean myself. I meant literall newcomers.



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Juniorrr
post Sep 13 2013, 09:01 PM
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Haven't seen this type of storm show up in a while - would love to track one...here is some eye candy for you

Right on the heels of this gulf low weak '93 looking system is a storm that hugs the gulf later transitioning into a western apps runner.

And here is the most recent Farmer's Almanac update

January 2014
QUOTE
South Central U.S
8th-11th. Heavy rain or wintry mix.

North Central U.S
8th-11th. Big storm brings heavy snow or wintry mix.

Midwest/Great Lakes
8th-11th. Southern Plains storm moves to Great Lakes; heavy rain and snow.

Northeast U.S.
8th-11th. Showers coastal locations rain and wet snow.


This post has been edited by Juniorrr: Sep 13 2013, 09:03 PM
Attached File(s)
Attached File  CONUS_CFS_NODE1_1000_500_SLPTHKPRP_477HR.gif ( 75.22K ) Number of downloads: 3
Attached File  CONUS_CFS_NODE1_1000_500_SLPTHKPRP_480HR.gif ( 74.63K ) Number of downloads: 1
Attached File  CONUS_CFS_NODE1_1000_500_SLPTHKPRP_483HR.gif ( 71.89K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 14 2013, 11:06 AM
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QUOTE(Juniorrr @ Sep 13 2013, 09:01 PM) *
Haven't seen this type of storm show up in a while - would love to track one...here is some eye candy for you

Right on the heels of this gulf low weak '93 looking system is a storm that hugs the gulf later transitioning into a western apps runner.

And here is the most recent Farmer's Almanac update

January 2014

No phasing......NEXT!!!!!!!!!! laugh.gif
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The Day After To...
post Sep 14 2013, 01:10 PM
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Man, still exhausted from last night.

(It was my bright idea to try out a mechanical bull.....)

Anyway, NAO deadlock (Neutral/Positive) appears to be breaking.


Attached File(s)
Attached File  deadlockending.gif ( 68.76K ) Number of downloads: 0
 


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WinterWolf
post Sep 14 2013, 03:18 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Sep 14 2013, 02:10 PM) *
Man, still exhausted from last night.

(It was my bright idea to try out a mechanical bull.....)

Anyway, NAO deadlock (Neutral/Positive) appears to be breaking.


LOL, I rode the bull a couple times and loved it...did quite well..stayed on for 8 seconds at level "10"..I found I just was able to go with it. While my buds got thrown off at level 2 lol. Anyway, we'd like that NAO to go Negative in December, but I get your point that perhaps some variety might be starting to appear.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 14 2013, 04:40 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Sep 14 2013, 01:10 PM) *
Man, still exhausted from last night.

(It was my bright idea to try out a mechanical bull.....)

Anyway, NAO deadlock (Neutral/Positive) appears to be breaking.

Lets hope. we have been in quite a substantial period of neutral/positive even the last and only dip back in august was short lived. This would be a positive sign though as we get closer to the beginning stages of the new LRC

heres the AO




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NorEaster07
post Sep 14 2013, 04:58 PM
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CFS Nov-March Temp Anomalies at 3 second intervals



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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blizzardOf96
post Sep 14 2013, 05:05 PM
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JMA DJF forecast hot off the presses. Has active STJ with trough centred over eastern canada. Slightly -NAO, -EPO, +PNA and -AO look to the pattern.
Attached File  post_26371_1379169273.png ( 132.21K ) Number of downloads: 5


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The Snowman
post Sep 14 2013, 05:16 PM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Sep 14 2013, 05:05 PM) *
JMA DJF forecast hot off the presses. Has active STJ with trough centred over eastern canada. Slightly -NAO, -EPO, +PNA and -AO look to the pattern.
Attached File  post_26371_1379169273.png ( 132.21K ) Number of downloads: 5

Hey now, could that be... *gasp* a favorable winter forecast?? laugh.gif

The JMA would be nice if it verified. Not sold on it until we see how the subsurface warming plays out in the east Pacific.


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Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
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Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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jdrenken
post Sep 14 2013, 07:52 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 14 2013, 05:16 PM) *
Hey now, could that be... *gasp* a favorable winter forecast?? laugh.gif

The JMA would be nice if it verified. Not sold on it until we see how the subsurface warming plays out in the east Pacific.


I wouldn't be sold on it either...

Jun-Aug
Attached File  JMA_Seasonal.PNG ( 135.9K ) Number of downloads: 10


2012-2013 Winter
Attached File  JMA_1213_WINTER.PNG ( 162.94K ) Number of downloads: 12


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The Snowman
post Sep 14 2013, 08:55 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 14 2013, 07:52 PM) *
I wouldn't be sold on it either...

Jun-Aug
Attached File  JMA_Seasonal.PNG ( 135.9K ) Number of downloads: 10


2012-2013 Winter
Attached File  JMA_1213_WINTER.PNG ( 162.94K ) Number of downloads: 12

Pretty much sums up my confusion to why people now like to use the JAMSTEC.


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2014 Severe Weather Season
Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
High Risk Days: 0


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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NYCSuburbs
post Sep 14 2013, 08:59 PM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Sep 14 2013, 09:55 PM) *
Pretty much sums up my confusion to why people now like to use the JAMSTEC.

I don't remember if it was 2011-12 or last year, but one of them I think it was quite inaccurate... don't have the resources right now to look back at its verification history from past years though.
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Juniorrr
post Sep 14 2013, 11:15 PM
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Does this 967mb storm have any affect on the pattern or our weather?
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grace
post Sep 14 2013, 11:39 PM
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JMA September Long-Range Forecast

DEC-FEB TEMPS


PRECIP


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Juniorrr
post Sep 15 2013, 01:07 AM
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QUOTE(grace @ Sep 15 2013, 12:39 AM) *
JMA September Long-Range Forecast

DEC-FEB TEMPS


PRECIP

As long as no brown and red together im fine with it. smile.gif
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