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> 2013 Severe Weather Season, New idea
The Day After To...
post Dec 29 2012, 03:12 PM
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Discuss favorable severe weather patterns further out.

Begin.


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The Snowman
post Dec 29 2012, 04:05 PM
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I like the concept.


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My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 1.0" (Updated 11/15/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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The Day After To...
post Dec 29 2012, 04:43 PM
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So do I. It would be kind of like the long rangewinter discussion, but more for severe weather.


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jdrenken
post Jan 1 2013, 06:19 AM
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The thread has potential.

As I said on American, look for a shift East in the severe weather threats. The West/Central Plains are in a drought and there's no relief in sight. While areas like IND are seeing record December snowfall. There is a sizeable difference in snowpack between/along the US-24 corridor of IL/MO/KS that has me concerned.

The next set of questions is...How much snowpack will remain after the thaw and what/where will Feb/Mar bring?


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The Day After To...
post Jan 1 2013, 01:00 PM
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What impact would a snowpack have on severe weather? I am no pro, so, would love more knowledge.


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The Snowman
post Jan 1 2013, 01:07 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 1 2013, 02:00 PM) *
What impact would a snowpack have on severe weather? I am no pro, so, would love more knowledge.

To me, snowpack leads to a larger presence of cold air, thus creating a larger temperature gradient between the snow-covered area and South US, and that combines to bring a severe weather potential.


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My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 1.0" (Updated 11/15/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
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WeatherMonger
post Jan 1 2013, 01:05 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 1 2013, 12:00 PM) *
What impact would a snowpack have on severe weather? I am no pro, so, would love more knowledge.

I think he's referring to soil moisture content. A lot harder for storms to form over drought conditions
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jdrenken
post Jan 1 2013, 01:08 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 1 2013, 12:00 PM) *
What impact would a snowpack have on severe weather? I am no pro, so, would love more knowledge.


Soil moisture, the baroclinic zone being created between the drought stricken areas and those areas with more moisture, a few others that I could go into when I get time.


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The Day After To...
post Jan 1 2013, 01:19 PM
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Ah. Thank you.


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The Day After To...
post Jan 4 2013, 08:42 PM
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What effect does the SE Ridge have on severe weather?


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andyhb
post Jan 4 2013, 09:07 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 4 2013, 05:42 PM) *
What effect does the SE Ridge have on severe weather?

Tends to enhance severe activity over the Plains/Midwest, with favorable moisture trajectories, usually suppresses severe activity in the SE (accordingly), although if you get a strong enough system to shunt it out of place, the added warmth it tends to keep over the SE can add fuel (as can be seen in the winter of 07-08, where the SE ridge was active, and we had a very volatile January and February).

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NYCSuburbs
post Jan 4 2013, 09:05 PM
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QUOTE(The Day After Tommorow @ Jan 4 2013, 08:42 PM) *
What effect does the SE Ridge have on severe weather?

I'm not an expert on severe weather, although with a SE ridge type pattern there would be more low pressures tracking through the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region, and especially with the stronger ones there could be a risk of thunderstorms and some severe weather involved; I would guess this could focus in the south-central US and parts of the SE but obviously the focus of any thunderstorms/severe weather varies with each storm track. 2007-08 was a winter with an active SE ridge; the SPC tornado graph shows January and February were very active.

Attached File  torngraph.png ( 359.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


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jdrenken
post Jan 4 2013, 09:35 PM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Jan 4 2013, 08:05 PM) *
I'm not an expert on severe weather, although with a SE ridge type pattern there would be more low pressures tracking through the Ohio Valley/Great Lakes region, and especially with the stronger ones there could be a risk of thunderstorms and some severe weather involved; I would guess this could focus in the south-central US and parts of the SE but obviously the focus of any thunderstorms/severe weather varies with each storm track. 2007-08 was a winter with an active SE ridge; the SPC tornado graph shows January and February were very active.

Attached File  torngraph.png ( 359.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


A day that many of us won't forget...

Super Tuesday Outbreak


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The Day After To...
post Jan 4 2013, 09:48 PM
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I was talking about that outbreak the other day with a friend. I can't believe how recent it was.


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ILStormwatcher
post Jan 7 2013, 02:55 PM
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My thinking is with extensive drought remaining over much of 'Tornado Alley' and a very slight La Nina to neutral Pacific Pattern in place along with some tendencies for moderate blocking from time to time including an alternating NAO pattern between slightly positive to moderately negative, my guessing is that the bulk of the Severe Weather will be farther east then normal this year with the main focus on the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mississippi Valley into the northern Tennessee Valley, shifting gradually eastward into the eastern Great Lakes and interior New England later in the season. While Tornado Alley remains with a below to much below average season down through Texas, while much of the west sees a fairly typical season.

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The Day After To...
post Jan 8 2013, 04:37 PM
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http://www.spc.noaa.gov/Racy/


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Bryan Baughman
post Jan 9 2013, 08:36 AM
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Definitely agree with some of the comments. I think areas from Kansas City, Des Moines, Springfield, Joplin, and Omaha will be more under the gun this year then in previous years due to the ongoing drought conditions out west.


QUOTE(ILStormwatcher @ Jan 7 2013, 01:55 PM) *
My thinking is with extensive drought remaining over much of 'Tornado Alley' and a very slight La Nina to neutral Pacific Pattern in place along with some tendencies for moderate blocking from time to time including an alternating NAO pattern between slightly positive to moderately negative, my guessing is that the bulk of the Severe Weather will be farther east then normal this year with the main focus on the Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and Mississippi Valley into the northern Tennessee Valley, shifting gradually eastward into the eastern Great Lakes and interior New England later in the season. While Tornado Alley remains with a below to much below average season down through Texas, while much of the west sees a fairly typical season.




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andyhb
post Jan 9 2013, 07:03 PM
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QUOTE(Bryan Baughman @ Jan 9 2013, 05:36 AM) *
Definitely agree with some of the comments. I think areas from Kansas City, Des Moines, Springfield, Joplin, and Omaha will be more under the gun this year then in previous years due to the ongoing drought conditions out west.

Strongly agree with these locations, along with further east into the GL/OV and possibly the TN Valley.
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The Snowman
post Jan 10 2013, 05:31 PM
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Well, if I can't have snow, I guess severe weather will suffice.


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My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 1.0" (Updated 11/15/14)
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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jdrenken
post Jan 13 2013, 09:36 AM
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A great resource for annual statistics.

Objectively looking at the 400mb theory of JB and looking at the stats, one needs to be concerned. In the same breath, one has to wonder why the 2011 season was active even though the temps were close to 2012 levels and we know how that turned out.
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