2013 Severe Weather Season, New idea Options

[blizzardOf96]

My preliminary 2013 severe weather outlook is posted on my blog. Here are some of my key points:

1. A quick transition to spring is expected in the southeast and along the east coast as an active southeast ridge is in place

2. Severe weather will get off to an early start this year and will shift further north-east along the heat ridge boundary

3. Drought will continue to intensify across the southern plains states and florida with a strengthening ridge developing as we head into april and may

4. The bulk of the severe weather this spring will be focused across the tennessee, ohio valleys and great lakes region with below normal activity in the plains states and eastern rockies

5. Dryness continues to increase across the southwest and gulf coast states as a weakening of the sub tropical jet stream takes place

6. The northern and eastern great lakes will get in on the action by may when the heat ridge expands. Multiple short waves will cause severe weather to extend as far north as ontario and quebec.

7. Storms will track over the ridge in the central u.s before diving into the ohio valley. This will cause a battleground to set up across the region with ridging to the southeast and cooler air to the north

Highlights:
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This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Jan 19 2013, 01:29 PM

[The Day After To...]

Glad this thread is a success!

[andyhb]

1. A quick transition to spring is expected in the southeast and along the east coast as an active southeast ridge is in place

With a SE ridge and plentiful precipitation across much of the Western/Central Gulf Coast this Winter, I'm not exactly sure a dominant central US ridge should/would really develop that far east, until May perhaps. It'd likely be further west with a focus on the Desert SW and Western Plain States. The CPC monthlies seem to indicate this, with dry conditions in this area.

Although updated is beginning to show drier than normal over the Gulf Coast...

This post has been edited by andyhb: Jan 19 2013, 05:41 PM

[WeatherMonger]

Not much info and detail, but a bit of insight

Dr. Greg Forbes
1 hour ago ·
Taylor and Matthew and maybe some others have asked about a tornado prediction for 2013. I don't believe that there is much skill in that kind of forecast, and it generally isn't done - unlike the seasonal tropical storm and hurricane forecasts that are routinely made (but don't really have impressive skill). The ongoing drought in the central US, if it persists, is likely to reduce tornadoes there but maybe focus them closer to the Mississippi River rather than in the more typical central OK-central KS region. Otherwise we are in neutral to maybe weak La Nina conditions. If the La Nina were stronger, that has often favored an active January to April period, but it hasn't been that way every time and this year's weak signal makes ENSO an "iffy" predictor. The NAO and AO relate well to tornado outbreaks, but it's hard to predict them accurately too far in advance. So, in short, it's hard to tell. Probably near average to somewhat below average, with lots of uncertainty.

[jdrenken]

Paul's outlook...

[Mid Tn. Man]

Paul's outlook...

Build the SER ridge in the right place for a prolonged period in severe season with the setup we have now with some big troughs this would be a perfect setup for one or two outbreaks,pretty nasty ones also especially with some supercells ahead of the trough

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Feb 1 2013, 07:38 PM

[andyhb]

Paul's outlook...

I think I'd shift the low risk west rather than north, since a shift east will affect the GL/OV likely as well later on in the year, rather than lower it like in the areas likely to be under some sort of drought (High/Central Plains).

[Mid Tn. Man]

I think I'd shift the low risk west rather than north, since a shift east will affect the GL/OV likely as well later on in the year, rather than lower it like in the areas likely to be under some sort of drought (High/Central Plains).

It's all scientific,you get a stalled out system in the plains for some reason its a moot point

[The Snowman]

FWIW, I just put out my severe weather season outlook. Tried to use analogues with a Nina turning to neutral/weak Nino and negative PDO scenario.

Link

[The Day After To...]

Interesting. CD was my first outbreak using radarscope.

Attached File(s)

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[andyhb]

FWIW, I just put out my severe weather season outlook. Tried to use analogues with a Nina turning to neutral/weak Nino and negative PDO scenario.

Link

1974 really didn't flip to El Nino at all, it stayed at least negative neutral through the whole year, the same with 2000. 1980 was more predominantly a +PDO year and essentially stayed positive-neutral the whole year.

1965 and 1968 do look decent in terms of the ENSO/PDO status, considering we are currently at negative-neutral, with a possible trend towards a positive-neutral/weak El-Nino by Summer/Fall. Both of these years had major events in the Midwest region.

2009 was a rather trashy year for svr wx.



This post has been edited by andyhb: Feb 2 2013, 04:09 PM

[WeatherMonger]

Graphic from the Chicago Weather Center Blog

[The Snowman]

Bump, wondering if anyone else has new ideas. I like this thread, for anyone who might be wondering if this is a new annual thread.

[dave32881]

Bump, wondering if anyone else has new ideas. I like this thread, for anyone who might be wondering if this is a new annual thread.

I also like this tread, it's still early though for us in the GL region but I as well agree that eastern Indiana,all of the Ohio valley and western PA will be the hotspot for the upcoming season. Last year was a real bust for west centeral PA, hoping that will change with the more abunant soil moisture content and a good Gulf southerly flow.

[andyhb]

There is currently a significant Global Mountain Torque event ongoing, there was also one of these prior to the Jan 29th/30th system, which was highly dynamic and produced a widespread severe event across the south. Watch the March 18th-25th period.

[mike82140]

Any thoughts on how much severe weather the Northeast will get?

[The Snowman]

Just released my latest severe weather outlook. I renovated the analog years after seeing andyhb's insight (thanks for that, by the way ), and took into account a few long range forecasting tools. Looking mighty active for the Midwest, Great Lakes.

Link to full post

[WeatherMonger]

Now that we're into May, anyone have any updated forecasts or thoughts? Have had several high end busts thus far and a relatively tame April with not much in the makings first week of May. Plenty of precip had fallen in areas stricken with drought but in a lot of places it has been too much. But soil moisture content shouldn't be much of an issue through Spring, although lack of crops in areas could have an effect come summer.

[ILStormwatcher]

Now that we're into May, anyone have any updated forecasts or thoughts? Have had several high end busts thus far and a relatively tame April with not much in the makings first week of May. Plenty of precip had fallen in areas stricken with drought but in a lot of places it has been too much. But soil moisture content shouldn't be much of an issue through Spring, although lack of crops in areas could have an effect come summer.

This will just be a very quiet season based on how its played out so far. There are increasing hints of a more prolonged pattern change which should allow more heat and moisture north, but the jet will retreat to central Canada which will cause a disconnect from the greatest shear and dynamics. This will cause Tornado threats to remain unusually low and possibly record breaking low. Still I can't rule out at least one moderate sized outbreak during the pattern flip. Afterwards and for the remainder of the Spring and Summer season, severe weather will hinge on MCS clusters riding along and north of a developing upper level summer time ridge of high pressure which looks to mostly focus on the Missouri River Valley and into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. These will bring mostly some damaging wind gusts, some hail, and heavy rains, possibly a brief spin up tornado/gustando where there is any kinks or hooks within the main lines of storms. Still this looks to be and continue to be a very boring season for chasers. Good for everyone else though minus the flood threats.

[andyhb]

This will just be a very quiet season based on how its played out so far. There are increasing hints of a more prolonged pattern change which should allow more heat and moisture north, but the jet will retreat to central Canada which will cause a disconnect from the greatest shear and dynamics. This will cause Tornado threats to remain unusually low and possibly record breaking low. Still I can't rule out at least one moderate sized outbreak during the pattern flip. Afterwards and for the remainder of the Spring and Summer season, severe weather will hinge on MCS clusters riding along and north of a developing upper level summer time ridge of high pressure which looks to mostly focus on the Missouri River Valley and into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. These will bring mostly some damaging wind gusts, some hail, and heavy rains, possibly a brief spin up tornado/gustando where there is any kinks or hooks within the main lines of storms. Still this looks to be and continue to be a very boring season for chasers. Good for everyone else though minus the flood threats.

Let's be careful where we go here, for one, the temperature gradient with the increased snow pack (among other influences) should allow the jet stream to remain a bit further south than last year at least. Absolute statements like this are not a very good idea when the pattern becomes variable like this, especially with an amplified MJO progression likely upcoming. The things that you are suggesting are basically climatology, and this has been anything but a normal climatological year, that's for sure.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/top...ussions/page-14



This post has been edited by andyhb: May 2 2013, 02:33 PM