Login to AccuWeather.com Premium Login to AccuWeather.com Professional Login to AccuWeather.com RadarPlus AccuWeather.com

Welcome Guest ( Log In | Register )

3 Pages V  < 1 2 3 >  
Reply to this topicStart new topic
> 2013 Severe Weather Season, New idea
blizzardOf96
post Jan 19 2013, 01:28 PM
Post #21




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 3,125
Joined: 23-January 12
From: Toronto,On
Member No.: 26,371





My preliminary 2013 severe weather outlook is posted on my blog. Here are some of my key points:

1. A quick transition to spring is expected in the southeast and along the east coast as an active southeast ridge is in place

2. Severe weather will get off to an early start this year and will shift further north-east along the heat ridge boundary

3. Drought will continue to intensify across the southern plains states and florida with a strengthening ridge developing as we head into april and may

4. The bulk of the severe weather this spring will be focused across the tennessee, ohio valleys and great lakes region with below normal activity in the plains states and eastern rockies

5. Dryness continues to increase across the southwest and gulf coast states as a weakening of the sub tropical jet stream takes place

6. The northern and eastern great lakes will get in on the action by may when the heat ridge expands. Multiple short waves will cause severe weather to extend as far north as ontario and quebec.

7. Storms will track over the ridge in the central u.s before diving into the ohio valley. This will cause a battleground to set up across the region with ridging to the southeast and cooler air to the north

Highlights:
Attached File  photo.JPG ( 187.66K ) Number of downloads: 2


This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Jan 19 2013, 01:29 PM


--------------------
Check Out My Weather Blog:

http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/


Follow me on Twitter: @Blizzardof96

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Day After To...
post Jan 19 2013, 02:02 PM
Post #22




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,375
Joined: 17-April 10
From: Wappinger Falls, NY
Member No.: 22,541





Glad this thread is a success!


--------------------
My blog, Nor'easter Warn (N'EW)


N'EW BLOG
Proud to have over 7,000 viewers, with over 13,000 blog views!
Spring Forecast: March 15


"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


STORM ALERT
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
andyhb
post Jan 19 2013, 05:30 PM
Post #23




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 467
Joined: 22-October 11
Member No.: 26,121





QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Jan 19 2013, 10:28 AM) *
1. A quick transition to spring is expected in the southeast and along the east coast as an active southeast ridge is in place

With a SE ridge and plentiful precipitation across much of the Western/Central Gulf Coast this Winter, I'm not exactly sure a dominant central US ridge should/would really develop that far east, until May perhaps. It'd likely be further west with a focus on the Desert SW and Western Plain States. The CPC monthlies seem to indicate this, with dry conditions in this area.

Although updated is beginning to show drier than normal over the Gulf Coast... rolleyes.gif

This post has been edited by andyhb: Jan 19 2013, 05:41 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Jan 24 2013, 05:07 PM
Post #24




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,502
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





Not much info and detail, but a bit of insight


QUOTE
Dr. Greg Forbes
1 hour ago
Taylor and Matthew and maybe some others have asked about a tornado prediction for 2013. I don't believe that there is much skill in that kind of forecast, and it generally isn't done - unlike the seasonal tropical storm and hurricane forecasts that are routinely made (but don't really have impressive skill). The ongoing drought in the central US, if it persists, is likely to reduce tornadoes there but maybe focus them closer to the Mississippi River rather than in the more typical central OK-central KS region. Otherwise we are in neutral to maybe weak La Nina conditions. If the La Nina were stronger, that has often favored an active January to April period, but it hasn't been that way every time and this year's weak signal makes ENSO an "iffy" predictor. The NAO and AO relate well to tornado outbreaks, but it's hard to predict them accurately too far in advance. So, in short, it's hard to tell. Probably near average to somewhat below average, with lots of uncertainty.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
jdrenken
post Jan 25 2013, 12:28 PM
Post #25




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: SuperModerator
Posts: 33,035
Joined: 26-March 08
From: Columbia, MO
Member No.: 14,521





Paul's outlook...



--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 1 2013, 07:36 PM
Post #26




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,555
Joined: 29-January 09
From: Tn
Member No.: 17,230





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 25 2013, 11:28 AM) *
Paul's outlook...



Build the SER ridge in the right place for a prolonged period in severe season with the setup we have now with some big troughs this would be a perfect setup for one or two outbreaks,pretty nasty ones also especially with some supercells ahead of the trough

This post has been edited by Mid Tn. Man: Feb 1 2013, 07:38 PM


--------------------
1"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
andyhb
post Feb 1 2013, 08:53 PM
Post #27




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 467
Joined: 22-October 11
Member No.: 26,121





QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 25 2013, 09:28 AM) *
Paul's outlook...


I think I'd shift the low risk west rather than north, since a shift east will affect the GL/OV likely as well later on in the year, rather than lower it like in the areas likely to be under some sort of drought (High/Central Plains).
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
Mid Tn. Man
post Feb 1 2013, 10:12 PM
Post #28




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 2,555
Joined: 29-January 09
From: Tn
Member No.: 17,230





QUOTE(andyhb @ Feb 1 2013, 07:53 PM) *
I think I'd shift the low risk west rather than north, since a shift east will affect the GL/OV likely as well later on in the year, rather than lower it like in the areas likely to be under some sort of drought (High/Central Plains).


It's all scientific,you get a stalled out system in the plains for some reason its a moot point


--------------------
1"
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Feb 2 2013, 12:53 PM
Post #29




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,065
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





FWIW, I just put out my severe weather season outlook. Tried to use analogues with a Nina turning to neutral/weak Nino and negative PDO scenario.

Link


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Day After To...
post Feb 2 2013, 02:34 PM
Post #30




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 5,375
Joined: 17-April 10
From: Wappinger Falls, NY
Member No.: 22,541





Interesting. CD was my first outbreak using radarscope.
Attached File(s)
Attached File  image.jpg ( 315.75K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  image.jpg ( 346.8K ) Number of downloads: 2
Attached File  image.jpg ( 280.62K ) Number of downloads: 2
 


--------------------
My blog, Nor'easter Warn (N'EW)


N'EW BLOG
Proud to have over 7,000 viewers, with over 13,000 blog views!
Spring Forecast: March 15


"AS THE 48+HR TIME FRAME IS NOT EXACTLY THE NAM`S WHEELHOUSE"
-NWS Discussion


STORM ALERT
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
andyhb
post Feb 2 2013, 04:04 PM
Post #31




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 467
Joined: 22-October 11
Member No.: 26,121





QUOTE(The Snowman @ Feb 2 2013, 09:53 AM) *
FWIW, I just put out my severe weather season outlook. Tried to use analogues with a Nina turning to neutral/weak Nino and negative PDO scenario.

Link

1974 really didn't flip to El Nino at all, it stayed at least negative neutral through the whole year, the same with 2000. 1980 was more predominantly a +PDO year and essentially stayed positive-neutral the whole year.

1965 and 1968 do look decent in terms of the ENSO/PDO status, considering we are currently at negative-neutral, with a possible trend towards a positive-neutral/weak El-Nino by Summer/Fall. Both of these years had major events in the Midwest region.

2009 was a rather trashy year for svr wx.



This post has been edited by andyhb: Feb 2 2013, 04:09 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post Feb 17 2013, 12:02 AM
Post #32




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,502
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





Graphic from the Chicago Weather Center Blog

Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Mar 6 2013, 11:00 PM
Post #33




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,065
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





Bump, wondering if anyone else has new ideas. I like this thread, for anyone who might be wondering if this is a new annual thread.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
dave32881
post Mar 6 2013, 11:29 PM
Post #34




Rank: Whirlwind
*

Group: Member
Posts: 11
Joined: 16-February 08
From: Lawrence Co. PA
Member No.: 13,728





QUOTE(The Snowman @ Mar 6 2013, 11:00 PM) *
Bump, wondering if anyone else has new ideas. I like this thread, for anyone who might be wondering if this is a new annual thread.

I also like this tread, it's still early though for us in the GL region but I as well agree that eastern Indiana,all of the Ohio valley and western PA will be the hotspot for the upcoming season. Last year was a real bust for west centeral PA, hoping that will change with the more abunant soil moisture content and a good Gulf southerly flow.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
andyhb
post Mar 7 2013, 12:15 AM
Post #35




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 467
Joined: 22-October 11
Member No.: 26,121





There is currently a significant Global Mountain Torque event ongoing, there was also one of these prior to the Jan 29th/30th system, which was highly dynamic and produced a widespread severe event across the south. Watch the March 18th-25th period.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
mike82140
post Mar 8 2013, 02:02 PM
Post #36




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 745
Joined: 17-January 12
From: NYC
Member No.: 26,349





Any thoughts on how much severe weather the Northeast will get?


--------------------
O thunderstorms where art thou?
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
The Snowman
post Mar 9 2013, 01:00 PM
Post #37




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 6,065
Joined: 7-December 10
From: Chicago
Member No.: 24,567





Just released my latest severe weather outlook. I renovated the analog years after seeing andyhb's insight (thanks for that, by the way smile.gif ), and took into account a few long range forecasting tools. Looking mighty active for the Midwest, Great Lakes.

Link to full post


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
WeatherMonger
post May 2 2013, 10:27 AM
Post #38




Rank: F5 Superstorm
***

Group: Member
Posts: 13,502
Joined: 26-January 10
From: Springfield, IL
Member No.: 21,113





Now that we're into May, anyone have any updated forecasts or thoughts? Have had several high end busts thus far and a relatively tame April with not much in the makings first week of May. Plenty of precip had fallen in areas stricken with drought but in a lot of places it has been too much. But soil moisture content shouldn't be much of an issue through Spring, although lack of crops in areas could have an effect come summer.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
ILStormwatcher
post May 2 2013, 12:30 PM
Post #39




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 100
Joined: 14-October 08
From: Belleville, Illinois
Member No.: 15,903





QUOTE(WeatherMonger @ May 2 2013, 10:27 AM) *
Now that we're into May, anyone have any updated forecasts or thoughts? Have had several high end busts thus far and a relatively tame April with not much in the makings first week of May. Plenty of precip had fallen in areas stricken with drought but in a lot of places it has been too much. But soil moisture content shouldn't be much of an issue through Spring, although lack of crops in areas could have an effect come summer.


This will just be a very quiet season based on how its played out so far. There are increasing hints of a more prolonged pattern change which should allow more heat and moisture north, but the jet will retreat to central Canada which will cause a disconnect from the greatest shear and dynamics. This will cause Tornado threats to remain unusually low and possibly record breaking low. Still I can't rule out at least one moderate sized outbreak during the pattern flip. Afterwards and for the remainder of the Spring and Summer season, severe weather will hinge on MCS clusters riding along and north of a developing upper level summer time ridge of high pressure which looks to mostly focus on the Missouri River Valley and into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. These will bring mostly some damaging wind gusts, some hail, and heavy rains, possibly a brief spin up tornado/gustando where there is any kinks or hooks within the main lines of storms. Still this looks to be and continue to be a very boring season for chasers. Good for everyone else though minus the flood threats.
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post
andyhb
post May 2 2013, 02:32 PM
Post #40




Rank: Tornado
**

Group: Member
Posts: 467
Joined: 22-October 11
Member No.: 26,121





QUOTE(ILStormwatcher @ May 2 2013, 10:30 AM) *
This will just be a very quiet season based on how its played out so far. There are increasing hints of a more prolonged pattern change which should allow more heat and moisture north, but the jet will retreat to central Canada which will cause a disconnect from the greatest shear and dynamics. This will cause Tornado threats to remain unusually low and possibly record breaking low. Still I can't rule out at least one moderate sized outbreak during the pattern flip. Afterwards and for the remainder of the Spring and Summer season, severe weather will hinge on MCS clusters riding along and north of a developing upper level summer time ridge of high pressure which looks to mostly focus on the Missouri River Valley and into the Mid Mississippi and Ohio River valleys. These will bring mostly some damaging wind gusts, some hail, and heavy rains, possibly a brief spin up tornado/gustando where there is any kinks or hooks within the main lines of storms. Still this looks to be and continue to be a very boring season for chasers. Good for everyone else though minus the flood threats.

Let's be careful where we go here, for one, the temperature gradient with the increased snow pack (among other influences) should allow the jet stream to remain a bit further south than last year at least. Absolute statements like this are not a very good idea when the pattern becomes variable like this, especially with an amplified MJO progression likely upcoming. The things that you are suggesting are basically climatology, and this has been anything but a normal climatological year, that's for sure.

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/top...ussions/page-14



This post has been edited by andyhb: May 2 2013, 02:33 PM
Go to the top of the page
 
+Quote Post

3 Pages V  < 1 2 3 >
Reply to this topicStart new topic
1 User(s) are reading this topic (1 Guests and 0 Anonymous Users)
0 Members:

 

RSS Lo-Fi Version Time is now: 25th October 2014 - 08:51 PM