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> Mar 6-8 MidAtl/NE Winter Storm, Reality: Short Range (0-3 Days Out (Forecasts)
phillyPete
post Feb 26 2013, 06:53 PM
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QUOTE(LUCC @ Feb 26 2013, 09:51 AM) *
Don't forget to put west CNJ in there. rolleyes.gif

yeah - and Philly.
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WinterWolf
post Feb 26 2013, 06:58 PM
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QUOTE(jb1979 @ Feb 26 2013, 06:43 PM) *
I'm pretty sure we're making the same point, lol. A good set-up makes the probability of a good storm higher. A bad setup makes it lower. But good storms can come out of bad patterns and vice versa. In long range you look at the general setup which has been FAR more reliable this year and focus less on the eye candy (although there's nothing wrong with looking!). When you get to midrange you look at the actual surface depictions and only get excited when they make sense. Inside 3 days you look even closer for details. If you follow that method you would be basically satisfied with how guidance has performed with Nemo being the only real failure (you could argue 2/22-24 as well).


I agree. IMO though, sometimes people/Mets get too hung up on what they think a Pattern should look like to produce a storm/big storm. And PSUWeathernewbie on here made a great point a few months back, and that was: "There is no perfect set up for a Major East Coast Storm, sometimes they come out of less than stellar set ups, and sometimes the stellar set ups don't produce anything." Many different ingredients/telleconnections can combine in DIFFERENT WAYS to create a Snow storm on different occasions, that normally wouldn't be expected to produce anything. I guess that was my point. Thank you for the pleasant reply my friend. smile.gif
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Cabinetsales
post Feb 26 2013, 10:48 PM
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Now back to our regularly scheduled discussion thread wink.gif

Right now this looks likely to be a southern MA storm or even a VA/NC special and not very special at that wink.gif Will be interesting to see how/where/when the block develops. If I were to guess now I'd say the euro has the best general handle on this storm (not speaking to actual precip amounts....just the setup) where it is developing off the outer banks of NC and heads NE or even ENE from there....OTS.....mainly giving a light snow to VA/NC/MD



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Fire/Rescue
post Feb 26 2013, 10:58 PM
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QUOTE(Cabinetsales @ Feb 26 2013, 10:48 PM) *
Now back to our regularly scheduled discussion thread wink.gif

Right now this looks likely to be a southern MA storm or even a VA/NC special and not very special at that wink.gif Will be interesting to see how/where/when the block develops. If I were to guess now I'd say the euro has the best general handle on this storm (not speaking to actual precip amounts....just the setup) where it is developing off the outer banks of NC and heads NE or even ENE from there....OTS.....mainly giving a light snow to VA/NC/MD


Bring it on smile.gif
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SnowMan11
post Feb 26 2013, 11:34 PM
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GFS is way south.


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Cabinetsales
post Feb 26 2013, 11:40 PM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Feb 26 2013, 11:34 PM) *
GFS is way south.


I don't look at the GFS at this time frame. Euro isn't perfect either but seems to handle at least the pattern a lot better in this timeframe.... It misses storms too but saw NEMO several days before the GFS, Sandy a few days before, and several winter storms for the MA from 2009-2011 (some the GFS NEVER saw like the Christmas day storm in 2011 that crushed parts of Central and SE Va)

....last year and this year it's shown more potential storms then backed off the ideas...but overall still has been much better on the storms (or lack of storm wink.gif) I've tracked.

I don't know where they get the verification charts for the GFS or what it relates to but the charts always make the GFS look better than it actually is in this timeframe IMHO....


Plus, GFS ALWAYS has issues with Southern stream energy wink.gif

This post has been edited by Cabinetsales: Feb 26 2013, 11:59 PM


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SnowMan11
post Feb 26 2013, 11:50 PM
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Ukie

http://meteocentre.com/models/explorateur....hh=1&hh=144


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weather is good
post Feb 27 2013, 01:52 AM
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Looks like this storm has big potential... Out to 168 on penn state ewall, looks like its gonna be big

On the Euro I mean... And over on American Weather they have the maps and it's a huge storm apparently

Just saw the 180 hour map... Goodness gracious what a bomb...

This post has been edited by weather is good: Feb 27 2013, 01:56 AM
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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 27 2013, 01:55 AM
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0z ECMWF is a major Mid Atlantic snowstorm... I could note it's still 8-9 days out, we'll see plenty of changes, and the long range models also showed a major snowstorm for 3/4, 3/1, late February, tonight's storm, last weekend storm, etc. this far out but I bet this part of the post will be partially overlooked as attention focuses on the images below this text. This is not a statement saying don't expect a storm, it's a statement urging caution 8-9 days out. The only thing I will comment on the longer range is that with the blocking pattern, suppression will more than likely be an issue but I would not be surprised to see at least one snowstorm come out of this pattern for some.


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This post has been edited by NYCSuburbs: Feb 27 2013, 01:56 AM
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weather is good
post Feb 27 2013, 02:00 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Feb 27 2013, 01:55 AM) *
0z ECMWF is a major Mid Atlantic snowstorm... I could note it's still 8-9 days out, we'll see plenty of changes, and the long range models also showed a major snowstorm for 3/4, 3/1, late February, tonight's storm, last weekend storm, etc. this far out but I bet this part of the post will be partially overlooked as attention focuses on the images below this text. This is not a statement saying don't expect a storm, it's a statement urging caution 8-9 days out. The only thing I will comment on the longer range is that with the blocking pattern, suppression will more than likely be an issue but I would not be surprised to see at least one snowstorm come out of this pattern for some.


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The fact that the ensembles have been hinting strongly at some sort of storm gives me more faith in the op... That being said, as you mentioned, suppression is our biggest problem more likely than not, we'll have to watch it

If nothing else the euro is nice eye candy though!
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NYCSuburbs
post Feb 27 2013, 02:05 AM
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QUOTE(weather is good @ Feb 27 2013, 02:00 AM) *
The fact that the ensembles have been hinting strongly at some sort of storm gives me more faith in the op... That being said, as you mentioned, suppression is our biggest problem more likely than not, we'll have to watch it

If nothing else the euro is nice eye candy though!

Yeah, I like chances of a storm in this time frame more than I did for the 1-3 frame (initially I thought it had a chance but not seeing it anymore) especially as the blocking is already present, not building in like it's doing with the 3-4th time frame, but suppression is still a concern with this pattern. The ECM has had quite a history of long range eye candy this year (CMC is on that track too with numerous long range MECS/HECS it showed after its upgrade), we'll see if this is another one of those or if it actually has a chance. But if it does, locations further south may actually be favored over the interior NE (not including New England) which aside from tonight and a handful of other occasions has been frequently in the screw zone.
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weather is good
post Feb 27 2013, 02:06 AM
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CMC also has the low, but not nearly as impressive as the Euro... But it shows a similar scenario...

Really it's too far out to get involved in the specifics anyway, we just have to make sure to keep an eye to see if this storm can hang around until... You know... The storm occurs

Should clarify... It's nothing like the Euro in terms of impacts as the Euro crushes the mid-Atlantic while the CMC develops the low too late and is a glancing blow... But their solutions aren't THAT far from eachother

This post has been edited by weather is good: Feb 27 2013, 02:09 AM
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Undertakerson
post Feb 27 2013, 04:37 AM
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Well the Euro Ens do not agree with the Op (Hr 192 = 3/7) - SLP is well east on the Ens.

On the other hand, a couple of the MREF individuals show a few really decent hits for MidAtl (IOW west of its Op)

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_0z/ensloopmref.html

Wait and see approach


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Undertakerson
post Feb 27 2013, 05:22 AM
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6z GFS is not handling this time frame the same way its 0z had. It appears to have taken a big step towards the Euro Op solution at Hr156.

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Yup - very much like the Euro

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This post has been edited by Undertakerson: Feb 27 2013, 05:27 AM


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Undertakerson
post Feb 27 2013, 05:33 AM
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This run does not turn out exactly like the ECMWF but it does shift the idea in line with the Euro. IOW - less suppressed and sharper trough edge in the Atl.

At Hr. 180 a SLP sits just inside OBX. The take away, for me, is that the suppression idea is less likely at this point.

Obviously, no locks at this juncture - but should keep the interest level at medium high for the next few days.


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SnowMan11
post Feb 27 2013, 06:14 AM
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Euro is a nice snowstorm up to NYC


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AmyRenee
post Feb 27 2013, 06:32 AM
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QUOTE(NYCSuburbs @ Feb 27 2013, 01:55 AM) *
0z ECMWF is a major Mid Atlantic snowstorm... I could note it's still 8-9 days out, we'll see plenty of changes, and the long range models also showed a major snowstorm for 3/4, 3/1, late February, tonight's storm, last weekend storm, etc. this far out but I bet this part of the post will be partially overlooked as attention focuses on the images below this text. This is not a statement saying don't expect a storm, it's a statement urging caution 8-9 days out. The only thing I will comment on the longer range is that with the blocking pattern, suppression will more than likely be an issue but I would not be surprised to see at least one snowstorm come out of this pattern for some.


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What is this showing for NC? Do you think we have a shot at a decent snow here as well?
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NorEaster07
post Feb 27 2013, 06:34 AM
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blink.gif to the Euro00z 12-18hrs of wind driven snow to the OV and Mid Atlantic.


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Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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yankees
post Feb 27 2013, 07:04 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Feb 27 2013, 06:34 AM) *
blink.gif to the Euro00z 12-18hrs of wind driven snow to the OV and Mid Atlantic.


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Wow pretty amazing that a storm that does not make it past mid New Jersey has snow as far north as it does. My area for example sees what looks like 6-12 inches and if the storm tracks a bit further north then that 12+ which already is close by would move into my area. City looks to do well.

This post has been edited by yankees: Feb 27 2013, 07:08 AM


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Undertakerson
post Feb 27 2013, 07:07 AM
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couple of solid hits among the MREFS

http://www.meteo.psu.edu/~fxg1/ENSPRS_6z/ensloopmref.html


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