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> Eastern Atlantic Tropical Development 2013, Until Invest Formation ONLY - Waves and LPs
Ron in Miami
post Apr 17 2013, 07:21 PM
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Now open for discussion.

This post has been edited by Ron in Miami: Apr 17 2013, 07:23 PM
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CanadianKeegan
post May 31 2013, 11:47 AM
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updating image so subject to change, but this looks like our first big wave of the season!
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east coast storm
post May 31 2013, 02:12 PM
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QUOTE(CanadianKeegan @ May 31 2013, 12:47 PM) *


updating image so subject to change, but this looks like our first big wave of the season!

Looks impressive for this time of year. Hard to say if it would make the west
trip across the Atlantic. As you know the cape verde season starts in August.
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weather-major94
post Jun 5 2013, 07:54 PM
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QUOTE(east coast storm @ May 31 2013, 02:12 PM) *
Looks impressive for this time of year. Hard to say if it would make the west
trip across the Atlantic. As you know the cape verde season starts in August.

the convection at 40 Deg w 10 deg N seems to have a slight rotation, probably nothing, but it is associated with the wave near 35,15 west and north, respectively. figured this would go here, though is is about to cross the halfway mark.

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so_whats_happeni...
post Jul 1 2013, 12:31 AM
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As of right now any development is really in my eyes subjected to the Caribbean or GOM regions. The Atlantic is is rather uneasy for any real good waves to come off Africa and be able to hold its own across the Atlantic. Still believe the GOM region will feel most of the activity this year but as of now just an idea.


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Ron in Miami
post Jul 8 2013, 07:34 PM
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Looking like it's gonna be a long active season...

This is the 18z GFS run, been showing future 95L developing behind Chantal for days now. This run shows a very good developing system.

If you notice the LP over LA, that's the remnants of Chantal. HP rolled off the east coast and kicks Chantal inland across northern FL around the GA border. That Same HP that kicked Chantal inland, has 95L/Dorien coming towards the northern islands in about 10 days.

IMO looks like the Northern islands, PR, Bahamas, FL and the SE US should keep a close eye on this one.
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 8 2013, 08:26 PM
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Very strange, looked at the run even further out (hour 348) and it comes in north FL almost where Chantal came in on that 18z run. North FL looks to have bad luck this year O_o Long ways away tho...
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MaineJay
post Jul 10 2013, 06:26 PM
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Looks like they are giving this little guy a shot, however small.

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/TCFP/data/...l_rCUMP_048.gif

http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec...s/gth_small.png
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Ron in Miami
post Jul 11 2013, 04:13 PM
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The wave that came off Africa a few days ago is now around 15 north and 30 west, and it's showing some signs of potential for development. Visible imagery and Mimic TPW show signs of rotation already, wouldn't be surprised to see an invest in the next few days.

Mimic TPW

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east coast storm
post Jul 11 2013, 04:57 PM
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QUOTE(Ron in Miami @ Jul 11 2013, 05:13 PM) *
The wave that came off Africa a few days ago is now around 15 north and 30 west, and it's showing some signs of potential for development. Visible imagery and Mimic TPW show signs of rotation already, wouldn't be surprised to see an invest in the next few days.

Mimic TPW

I saw the circulation on the visible, looks interesting as well as that low east of Fla
on the 18Z NAM. Interesting times ahead.
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Blizz
post Jul 11 2013, 06:58 PM
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18z GFS shows at least two storms that develop into tropical systems (one by next week) and another towards the 300+ range.


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The Snowman
post Jul 16 2013, 08:35 PM
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HWRF getting an upgrade.

http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/changes/


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Ron in Miami
post Jul 17 2013, 04:11 PM
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The MJO is forecast to become more favorable in about a week from now, around the 23rd/24th. I have been checking the long term GFS and it shows two waves that come off Africa right after that and both appear to develop. Although it's 300+ hours out, still worth keeping an eye out for development toward the ends of next week.


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MaineJay
post Jul 22 2013, 05:45 AM
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Pretty impressive wave rolling off the coast of Africa. Seems pretty far south, but I guess that's where the warmer water is.

tropical development percentages

Perhaps someone knowledgeable can help me. I assume that dusty, Saharan air is a hindrance to tropical development. My question is, does a little bitfof dust help? Just going back to some weather 101, I know that some dust is necessary for condensation nuclei, and was wondering how much is too much. Or is it a situation where, there is always enough dust coming off the African deserts?

Saharan Air Layer
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The Snowman
post Jul 24 2013, 07:40 PM
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New critter in the long range.



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MaineJay
post Jul 26 2013, 07:53 AM
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Pressure falls off the coat of Africa. ~10 % chance of development


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MaineJay
post Aug 13 2013, 05:46 AM
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Wonder how the wave, that's just about to move off the west African coast, will behave once it hits the ocean. Saharan dust doesn't seem to be as prevalent as it has been of late.



http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/sal/...es/splitE5.html
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Ron in Miami
post Aug 23 2013, 12:34 PM
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I have been watching the CIMSS site for the last few days and they have had 2 new type of invests posted for the eastern Atlantic. And now I see they have posted a new type invest for the system in the NE gulf. I have checked the TC page from the NHC and no activity.

I got fooled yesterday by the TC page when they put up a test invest, but they were using the location of one of the "new type invest" on cims (around 20n and 40w).

I looked at the sat images for the invests on cimss, and the one around 20n/40w has a well defined circulation, but no storms. If that one can get it's act together, it could develop rather quickly.

CIMSS Site

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Ron in Miami
post Aug 25 2013, 07:50 AM
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Anyone look at the overnight model runs? The wave rolling off Africa makes a Sandy-esq run at the NE US. The pressures are around the low to mid 990's so that would make it a strong TS. The 18z was the furthest east, and they migrated west from there. Here are a couple images from the model runs, this should get things stirred up if a few more runs come out like this! laugh.gif In order is the 18z, 0z, and 6z:
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hurricanehunter
post Aug 25 2013, 02:29 PM
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I've seen the models runs and not going to get all excited about something that is 10-14 days away. Today it's riding up the eastern seaboard, tomorrow it could be in the GOM. For me, I'll just be happy to track something after being quiet for so long.
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