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> Winter 2013-14, Seasonal Outlooks & Observations
bigmt
post Jul 9 2013, 04:21 PM
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The latest monthly Euro is currently up on the Canadian blog and it extends into January 2014, so perhaps now is a good time to start looking forward to another winter. It goes without saying that model information at this range is best taken with a grain of salt or two wink.gif

Here's the info from the blog to start things off, slicing it down to just the winter months (although there's also blurbs about the rest of the summer and fall past the link) - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...y-2014/15080026

QUOTE
December

--Colder than normal from BC through the Prairies, much-below for Saskatchewan.

--Warmer than normal from southern U.S. Plains through southeast U.S. and into northeast U.S.

--Warmer than normal for northern Quebec.

--Drier compared to normal along coastal BC.

--Much wetter than normal from lower Mississippi Valley to Ohio Valley.

--Wetter than normal for southern Ontario, northern California and Oregon.

--Slightly drier across Newfoundland.

January 2014

--Colder than normal for southern BC and into U.S. Pacific Northwest.

--Warmer than normal for eastern and Atlantic Canada then through the eastern 1/4 of the U.S. and into Texas. Much above-normal temperatures for the Southeast U.S.

--Drier than normal from southwest BC to northern California.

--Wetter than normal from Arkansas to Ohio.

--Slightly wetter (rain or snow) than normal from eastern Ontario through southern and eastern Quebec.


A few more seasonal models, starting with the JAMSTEC temps:

Attached File  temp2.glob.DJF2014.1jun2013.gif ( 67.09K ) Number of downloads: 6


Precip:

Attached File  tprep.glob.DJF2014.1jun2013.gif ( 83.03K ) Number of downloads: 2


The CFS v2, temps:

Attached File  usT2mSeaInd6.gif ( 28.32K ) Number of downloads: 4


Precip:

Attached File  usPrecSeaInd6.gif ( 27.94K ) Number of downloads: 1


The CPC's probabilistic outlook, temps:

Attached File  off06_temp.gif ( 24.66K ) Number of downloads: 4


Precip:

Attached File  off06_prcp.gif ( 23.49K ) Number of downloads: 2


EC's probabilistic outlook for JFM, temps:

Attached File  s789pfe1t_cal.png ( 56.34K ) Number of downloads: 3


Precip:

Attached File  s789pfe1t_cal.png ( 56.34K ) Number of downloads: 1


Finally, the latest weekly ENSO update from the CPC - http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/prec.../MJO/enso.shtml

Attached File  enso1.png ( 86.28K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  enso2.png ( 178.56K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  enso3.png ( 59.42K ) Number of downloads: 1


Somewhat encouraging to see some muted signals for a weak La Nina perhaps. This will become much clearer as the summer wanes and fall sets in.

This post has been edited by bigmt: Nov 25 2013, 02:25 PM
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JJ Snowlover
post Jul 10 2013, 09:14 AM
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Thanks for posting bigmt. Based on no weather factoids but only my own guess, after a normal temperature and above percp winter, and a cool, above percp spring, and a near normal temp and slightly above percp start to summer.

I expect above normal temps and near, to slightly below percp for this coming winter. We shall see how it plays out as you noted.
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stuffradio
post Jul 11 2013, 12:45 AM
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Above normal temps and precipitation? Sounds about right for this area. That should be the norm. Haha
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hockeynut
post Jul 11 2013, 09:07 AM
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Anything has to be better then the last 2 winters here in s ont..


Hockeynut
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knorthern_knight
post Jul 12 2013, 01:00 AM
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QUOTE(hockeynut @ Jul 11 2013, 10:07 AM) *
Anything has to be better then the last 2 winters here in s ont..
Hockeynut


cfsv2 monthly forecasts only go out to December. Here they are. Eastern Canada shows December temps below normal, with precip mostly below normal, except near normal southern Ontario (south of a line from Kingston to Collingwood). The cooler temps might possibly convert some of that winter rain to winter snow. Of course, skill level 6 months out is low, so take this with a bag of salt.

Attached File  t201312.gif ( 28.93K ) Number of downloads: 3

Attached File  p201312.gif ( 29.86K ) Number of downloads: 3
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bigmt
post Jul 12 2013, 08:11 AM
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More model information to digest from Brett - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...e-east/15176236

QUOTE
The U.S. based Climate Prediction Center (CPC) has released an update of their experimental NMME, which is a multi-model ensemble forecast which goes out into the winter.

Below are the predicted temperature and precipitation anomalies for the Winter. Again, these are useful tools, but certainly do not treat these as gospel. Model performance drops significantly going out 2 months and beyond, but the science is getting better and the development of a multi-model ensemble is great idea.

Attached File  590x442_07121226_winttmp.png ( 104.25K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  590x442_07121226_wintpcp.png ( 88.19K ) Number of downloads: 3
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knorthern_knight
post Jul 14 2013, 03:05 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Jul 12 2013, 09:11 AM) *
More model information to digest from Brett - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...e-east/15176236

Hmmm. The temperature is at odds with CFSV2, which now reaches out to January. December and January look below normal in most of Canada, especially January.

Attached File  t201312.gif ( 28.68K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  t201401.gif ( 29.34K ) Number of downloads: 1
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hockeynut
post Jul 16 2013, 08:30 AM
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I like what I am hearing let's hope it holds true for the months to come..

Hockeynut
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hockeynut
post Jul 17 2013, 08:40 AM
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It would be nice to have some winter weather for the when I go to the winter classic hockey game in detroit on jan 1st..

Hockeynut
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bigmt
post Jul 17 2013, 09:58 AM
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JAMSTEC July update for the December 2013 - February 2014 period, temps:

Attached File  temp2.glob.DJF2014.1jul2013.gif ( 66.97K ) Number of downloads: 4


Precip:

Attached File  tprep.glob.DJF2014.1jul2013.gif ( 82.56K ) Number of downloads: 4
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stuffradio
post Jul 18 2013, 12:25 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Jul 17 2013, 07:58 AM) *
JAMSTEC July update for the December 2013 - February 2014 period, temps:

Attached File  temp2.glob.DJF2014.1jul2013.gif ( 66.97K ) Number of downloads: 4


Precip:

Attached File  tprep.glob.DJF2014.1jul2013.gif ( 82.56K ) Number of downloads: 4

Looks like colder and drier for me.
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Christhebirderan...
post Jul 24 2013, 04:30 PM
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I hope cold and stormy in the West.
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Christhebirderan...
post Jul 25 2013, 01:01 PM
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https://www.facebook.com/pages/Seattle-weat...8069?ref=stream
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knorthern_knight
post Aug 12 2013, 09:51 PM
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CFSV2 has now advanced their 6 month rolling forecast window from Aug-Jan to Sep-Feb. Here's what Dec/Jan/Feb anomaly forecasts look like. Note that this has really low skill, so take with a bag of salt.

Attached File  tdec.gif ( 28.87K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  pdec.gif ( 31.39K ) Number of downloads: 2

Attached File  tjan.gif ( 28.21K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  pjan.gif ( 28.77K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  tfeb.gif ( 28.19K ) Number of downloads: 1

Attached File  pfeb.gif ( 29.56K ) Number of downloads: 2
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blizzardOf96
post Aug 16 2013, 11:59 AM
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JB is starting to hype a modiki el nino setup for next winter both on twitter and wxbell. Just a couple reasons why i am skeptical at this point. If we look at the ecmwf's SST forecast from august last year it was forecasting a moderate el nino for NDJ which was completely opposite of what actually happened. This may be a sign that the euro has trouble during long periods of neutral enso conditions.
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2013_08_16_at_11.50.24_AM.png ( 98.13K ) Number of downloads: 3


Currently we see easterlies dominating at 850mb to the west of the dateline with +SOI values dominating overall.At the subsurface we have mixed anomalies. Cool SST's have been stubborn at the surface and warm water near the dateline has not been budging. Unless we see a physical change in the pacific pattern neutral enso conditions will likely dominate, with small shifts from time to time although the cool side of neutral is favoured IMO.
Attached File  wkxzteq_anm.gif ( 119.56K ) Number of downloads: 0


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blizzardOf96
post Aug 17 2013, 04:42 PM
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Working on my preliminary winter outlook now. Will let everyone know when it is posted on my blog.


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blizzardOf96
post Aug 18 2013, 10:06 AM
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Just finished my 2013-14 winter outlook. It is now posted on my blog at this link: http://torontowxcenter.blogspot.ca/p/preli...14-outlook.html

Here are the winter highlights and the eastern regional breakdown. Don't hesitate to ask me any questions you may have, I will be more then happy to answer them.
Attached File  Screen_Shot_2013_08_18_at_9_1.23.20_AM.png ( 209.87K ) Number of downloads: 3


East

The winter will start off slow this year with warmer then normal temperatures dominating december, despite a -NAO pattern. Lower then normal snowfall is likely across the mid atlantic and coastal plain while the interior northeast, northern new england and eastern great lakes have the potential to see normal snowfall. The storm track will stay predominantly inland with one branch of the jet stream dominating. Great lakes cutters will occur most frequently as well as colorado lows. Apps runners and coastal lows will be less common but can occur once or twice in december. By January and february cold air masses will shift eastwards into the region as the storm track continues to shift SE. The southeast will continue to remain warmer then normal but winter will pack a punch to the north. I am expecting above normal snowfall in the eastern ohio valley, great lakes and interior northeast. Slightly colder then normal temps are likely across new england and the northeast with clippers sliding southeast. The NAO will stay variable in january with a strong GOA high/-EPO dominating. In february, snowy conditions are likely across the ohio valley, great lakes and the northeast. If one month will deliver a couple coastal's for the I-95 snow geese it will happen in february. The storm track will continue to shift SE as a more el nino type of pattern sets up with a +PNA setup. The Southeast stays warm and dry in february as a weak southeast ridge holds up.

This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Aug 18 2013, 10:07 AM


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hcr32
post Aug 18 2013, 02:21 PM
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Great outlook Blizz! We're due for a snowy winter out west!
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winter48
post Aug 18 2013, 08:54 PM
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Thanks for the great write-up, Blizz! Appreciate the time and effort it must take to prepare such an outlook. smile.gif
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blizzardOf96
post Aug 18 2013, 09:01 PM
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Thanks so much guys! Looking forward to tracking with everyone this fall and winter.


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