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> Winter 2013-14, Seasonal Outlooks & Observations
Brett Anderson
post Oct 10 2013, 08:25 AM
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I must say, the latest long range seasonal modeling has been all over the place in terms of what the winter months will be like. There is clearly a lack of signal for these models to latch on to so there are many different solutions.

May want to lean a little more on analogs than usual for this forecast, especially for Dec and February. January is more of a toss up, as both the modeling and analog packages show very little consistency with temperatures and precip.

Will be keeping a close eye on the snow cover anomalies over western Siberia the rest of this month. If it stays above normal we may have a better shot of high latitude blocking on our side of the pole later in the winter.

I am putting the final touches on the Canada winter forecast and it will be posted next week.


By the way, here is what we posted last year for our Canada winter 2012/13 temperature and snowfall forecast and the verifications via EC. (see attachments)

Temperature outlook
Attached File  2012_13_winter_tmp_fcst.png ( 443.33K ) Number of downloads: 2


Actual temperatures
Attached File  2012_13_winter_verif.png ( 57.55K ) Number of downloads: 0


Snowfall outlook
Attached File  winter_pcp.png ( 439.86K ) Number of downloads: 5


Actual precipitation (snowfall was not available)
Attached File  winter_2012_13_precip.png ( 168.29K ) Number of downloads: 2


This post has been edited by Brett Anderson: Oct 10 2013, 08:27 AM


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JJ Snowlover
post Oct 10 2013, 11:21 AM
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QUOTE(knorthern_knight @ Oct 9 2013, 10:21 PM) *
I hate to "rain on your parade" guys. But before anyone gets carried away with the winter forecasts, compare December temps
The difference, one month along, is night and day. And we still have close to 2 months before we start December. So don't put that much trust in the forecasts this far out.


QUOTE(bigmt @ Oct 10 2013, 08:13 AM) *
In fairness, if the comparison is between the CFS and the seasonal Euro then there's a clear-cut winner in terms of reliability and accuracy. The CFS has so many runs and so many varied solutions that it's more for entertainment value whereas the European occasionally clues in on the winter pattern around this time, depending on the year. It ain't perfect but it's as good as it gets for the time being.

Bahh nobody believes the CFS anyway, and especially back in September, I completely ignored it, besides cold air rarely sets up to our north like that in December. I've been waiting for the euro, I think it has a pretty good grasp on winter this year...

QUOTE(Brett Anderson @ Oct 10 2013, 09:25 AM) *
I must say, the latest long range seasonal modeling has been all over the place in terms of what the winter months will be like. There is clearly a lack of signal for these models to latch on to so there are many different solutions.

May want to lean a little more on analogs than usual for this forecast, especially for Dec and February. January is more of a toss up, as both the modeling and analog packages show very little consistency with temperatures and precip.

I am putting the final touches on the Canada winter forecast and it will be posted next week.

Nice to see you on here Brett, looking forward to your winter forecast

QUOTE(Brett Anderson @ Oct 10 2013, 09:25 AM) *
By the way, here is what we posted last year for our Canada winter 2012/13 temperature and snowfall forecast and the verifications via EC. (see attachments)

Actual temperatures
Attached File  2012_13_winter_verif.png ( 57.55K ) Number of downloads: 0

LOL laugh.gif look at that little hole of normal temps over the Ottawa valley. Somehow we managed to squeeze out a nice winter for 11-12. Lots of snow and just enough cold air to support accumulating wet snow for any warm storms that came. I'd take that again this year if I had too wink.gif

This post has been edited by JJ Snowlover: Oct 10 2013, 11:23 AM
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bigmt
post Oct 10 2013, 12:45 PM
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QUOTE(Brett Anderson @ Oct 10 2013, 09:25 AM) *
I must say, the latest long range seasonal modeling has been all over the place in terms of what the winter months will be like. There is clearly a lack of signal for these models to latch on to so there are many different solutions.

May want to lean a little more on analogs than usual for this forecast, especially for Dec and February. January is more of a toss up, as both the modeling and analog packages show very little consistency with temperatures and precip.


We've chatted a bit about analogs here - 90-91 (on your Twitter feed as we can see above) and 08-09 in particular. Do you have any thoughts to add on those two selections or any hints on other years you're looking at? I've been looking a bit at 79-80 recently as well, amongst others. Research has gotten tougher without access to the re-analysis maps as has been mentioned.

QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Oct 10 2013, 12:21 PM) *
Bahh nobody believes the CFS anyway, and especially back in September, I completely ignored it, besides cold air rarely sets up to our north like that in December. I've been waiting for the euro, I think it has a pretty good grasp on winter this year...


That was my attempt to be diplomatic about it but yeah the CFS is a bit of a joke when compared to the European IMO, although it isn't infallible either of course.

Another tool worth paying attention to is the IMME which is a multi-model forecast, including the Euro. These maps were just updated the other day with October initial conditions.

DJF Temps:

Attached File  IMME_tmp2m_us_season2.png ( 16.4K ) Number of downloads: 1


DJF Precip:

Attached File  IMME_prate_us_season2.png ( 15.03K ) Number of downloads: 1
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JJ Snowlover
post Oct 10 2013, 02:25 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Oct 10 2013, 01:45 PM) *
That was my attempt to be diplomatic about it but yeah the CFS is a bit of a joke when compared to the European IMO, although it isn't infallible either of course.

laugh.gif maybe I was too harash... tongue.gif but knothern knight did bring up a good point that you have to take alot of long range forecast models with a grain of salt, and since Brett is saying nothing is producing strong signals yet, it could be anyones game...

QUOTE(bigmt @ Oct 10 2013, 01:45 PM) *
Another tool worth paying attention to is the IMME which is a multi-model forecast, including the Euro. These maps were just updated the other day with October initial conditions.

hmmm interesting, haven't seen this one yet...
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JJ Snowlover
post Oct 10 2013, 02:41 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Oct 10 2013, 01:45 PM) *
Do you have any thoughts to add on those two selections or any hints on other years you're looking at? I've been looking a bit at 79-80 recently as well, amongst others.

eeeeecccckkkk...79 - 80 was aweful around here, almost completely snowless in Dec, Jan and begining of Feb. Most snow on the ground was like 20cm at the end of February.... mad.gif
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bigmt
post Oct 10 2013, 03:54 PM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Oct 10 2013, 03:25 PM) *
laugh.gif maybe I was too harash... tongue.gif but knothern knight did bring up a good point that you have to take alot of long range forecast models with a grain of salt, and since Brett is saying nothing is producing strong signals yet, it could be anyones game...


Absolutely a fair point and I agree with the sentiment of caution wholeheartedly but there's only so many disclaimers one can type before eventually just assuming we all know the name of the game in terms of uncertainty.

We'll all be sick to death of salt with the sheer amount of grains we're taking! laugh.gif

QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Oct 10 2013, 03:41 PM) *
eeeeecccckkkk...79 - 80 was aweful around here, almost completely snowless in Dec, Jan and begining of Feb. Most snow on the ground was like 20cm at the end of February.... mad.gif


No worries, it's just another analog as part of a much larger package I'm looking at. I'm not anywhere near as glum as that sort of outlook. Right now I'm feeling pretty good about the upcoming winter but we'll see how things shape up by the end of the month.
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bigmt
post Oct 10 2013, 05:41 PM
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Here are the IMME maps broken down by individual month FWIW.

December 2013 temps:

Attached File  IMME_tmp2m_us_lead2.png ( 16.9K ) Number of downloads: 1


December 2013 precip:

Attached File  IMME_prate_us_lead2.png ( 16.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


January 2014 temps:

Attached File  IMME_tmp2m_us_lead3.png ( 16.83K ) Number of downloads: 0


January 2014 precip:

Attached File  IMME_prate_us_lead3.png ( 15.25K ) Number of downloads: 1


February 2014 temps:

Attached File  IMME_tmp2m_us_lead4.png ( 16.48K ) Number of downloads: 0


February 2014 precip:

Attached File  IMME_prate_us_lead4.png ( 15.88K ) Number of downloads: 0
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blizzardOf96
post Oct 10 2013, 05:51 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Oct 10 2013, 06:41 PM) *
Here are the IMME maps broken down by individual month FWIW.

Interesting to see a model going towards a 90-91 type look where you see a warm DEC, a turn around in january and a torchy feb with much drier conditions. I have always felt that FEB would be the biggest wild card in the DJF period. What is very interesting is that in most +QBO years with neutral ONI you see a late winter SSW events with implications down towards 500mb. This combined with the above normal SAI could really help contribute to a -AO pattern, with more of an east based -NAO in Jan and Feb. Right now my favourite analog years are 59-60, 66-67, 90-91, 85-86 and 61-62. 2001-02 and 08-09 are decent but not my favourite years.


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bigmt
post Oct 10 2013, 06:20 PM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Oct 10 2013, 06:51 PM) *
Interesting to see a model going towards a 90-91 type look where you see a warm DEC, a turn around in january and a torchy feb with much drier conditions. I have always felt that FEB would be the biggest wild card in the DJF period.


The model also has widespread warmth for March, albeit with more in the way of precip. The NMME maps are progressively more brutal (in terms of mild temps) towards late winter but they are suspect because they are down to 4 models with the US govt shutdown.

QUOTE
What is very interesting is that in most +QBO years with neutral ONI you see a late winter SSW events with implications down towards 500mb. This combined with the above normal SAI could really help contribute to a -AO pattern, with more of an east based -NAO in Jan and Feb.


I doubt if a SSW event would be handled well with the long-range models so that could certainly be a factor down the road.

After some of the disappointing -AO periods in recent years where we lost all the cold air on the wrong side of the globe I'm less enthused by that prospect on it's own.
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blizzardOf96
post Oct 10 2013, 06:34 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Oct 10 2013, 07:20 PM) *
After some of the disappointing -AO periods in recent years where we lost all the cold air on the wrong side of the globe I'm less enthused by that prospect on it's own.


Definitely disheartening to see the PV setting up shop on the other side of the pole already, although its still very early in the game. Lower stratospheric temperature anomalies argue for a shift of the PV towards eastern canada by day 10, which should help out in the snow cover department across canada.


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Torontoweather
post Oct 10 2013, 10:16 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Oct 10 2013, 06:41 PM) *
Here are the IMME maps broken down by individual month FWIW.

December 2013 temps:

Attached File  IMME_tmp2m_us_lead2.png ( 16.9K ) Number of downloads: 1


December 2013 precip:

Attached File  IMME_prate_us_lead2.png ( 16.22K ) Number of downloads: 0


January 2014 temps:

Attached File  IMME_tmp2m_us_lead3.png ( 16.83K ) Number of downloads: 0


January 2014 precip:

Attached File  IMME_prate_us_lead3.png ( 15.25K ) Number of downloads: 1


February 2014 temps:

Attached File  IMME_tmp2m_us_lead4.png ( 16.48K ) Number of downloads: 0


February 2014 precip:

Attached File  IMME_prate_us_lead4.png ( 15.88K ) Number of downloads: 0



Anomalies of +0.25-0.5K are hardly torchy. wink.gif


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bigmt
post Oct 11 2013, 05:04 AM
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QUOTE(Torontoweather @ Oct 10 2013, 11:16 PM) *
Anomalies of +0.25-0.5K are hardly torchy. wink.gif


Not so bad for us but on the whole the country looks mild. I'm not sure I'd describe any of those images as a 'torch' pattern for ON, although the position of the suggested blocking high isn't necessarily ideal.
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JJ Snowlover
post Oct 11 2013, 10:53 AM
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http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/british-colu...xpect-1.1959609

Not a whole lot of info in this link, but reinforces a neutral pattern for this year...
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stuffradio
post Oct 11 2013, 03:18 PM
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I like that December temperature, but not the precip. Feb 2014 looks a lot like 2010. It was very dry and warm when we were supposed to have the Olympics. It was beautiful though. Everyone loved it.
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blizzardOf96
post Oct 15 2013, 03:17 PM
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Latest run of the Euro SIPS (combo between the euro seasonal model and cfsv2) has a blockbuster winter look with a strong western ridge, bering sea trough and weak central based -NAO. Very snowy look, similar to a 02-03 or 08-09 pattern. -NAO is not as west based, nor nearly as strong as a 10-11 or 09-10 setup. Exciting news for snow lovers...

This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Oct 15 2013, 03:18 PM


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Ryan45
post Oct 15 2013, 04:24 PM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Oct 15 2013, 04:17 PM) *
Latest run of the Euro SIPS (combo between the euro seasonal model and cfsv2) has a blockbuster winter look with a strong western ridge, bering sea trough and weak central based -NAO. Very snowy look, similar to a 02-03 or 08-09 pattern. -NAO is not as west based, nor nearly as strong as a 10-11 or 09-10 setup. Exciting news for snow lovers...


Bring it on..I am getting very pumped.


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stuffradio
post Oct 15 2013, 04:58 PM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Oct 15 2013, 01:17 PM) *
Latest run of the Euro SIPS (combo between the euro seasonal model and cfsv2) has a blockbuster winter look with a strong western ridge, bering sea trough and weak central based -NAO. Very snowy look, similar to a 02-03 or 08-09 pattern. -NAO is not as west based, nor nearly as strong as a 10-11 or 09-10 setup. Exciting news for snow lovers...

Sounds bad for snow in the West. 09-12 were all basically 0 snow years. '12 had an arctic outbreak for a week or two in January that got me a foot of snow. Between 09-12 I had basically nothing.
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blizzardOf96
post Oct 15 2013, 05:30 PM
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QUOTE(stuffradio @ Oct 15 2013, 05:58 PM) *
Sounds bad for snow in the West. 09-12 were all basically 0 snow years. '12 had an arctic outbreak for a week or two in January that got me a foot of snow. Between 09-12 I had basically nothing.


Yep, the west gets torched on this run... in the means. Still remaining skeptical at this point with a muddled enso signal and -PDO hanging tight. Their will be a fight between a potential central pac warm pool developing and the -PDO. Right now the euro monthlies are probably more realistic with a la nina'ish pattern/central canada trough. You can still see el nino pattern bursts in fall/winter(similar to 6-10 day period) with a strong -EPO/+PNA and -NAO at times. This can happen as the walker cell(ENSO SST's) has generally shifted east over the last month or so which leaves room for the MJO to propagate east into phases 6-1, especially when coupled with a downwelling kelvin wave.

This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Oct 15 2013, 05:51 PM


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snowgeek93
post Oct 15 2013, 05:37 PM
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Saw Brett's winter forecast for Canada. He thinks the bulk of the precipitation for my area should be December and January. Above normal temperatures during this period should mean a lot of mixing events as well. Still skeptical since it is only mid October but he is good. Still; ya never know what could happen. wink.gif
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bigmt
post Oct 15 2013, 05:41 PM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Oct 15 2013, 06:30 PM) *
Yep, the west gets torched on this run... in the means. Still remaining skeptical at this point with a muddled enso signal and -PDO hanging tight.


I agree, that would seem like an unlikely outcome judging by the current North Pacific SST pattern which again reflects an ongoing -PDO. Looking back there were many extended periods of western ridging this past summer though, so who knows?

I would take the pattern you described in a heartbeat - both 02/03 and 08/09 were great winters in my books.

The Accuweather Canadian winter forecast is out now - http://www.accuweather.com/en/weather-blog...recast/18805858

Attached File  590x331_10131628_2013_14_canada_winter_temps.jpg ( 62.35K ) Number of downloads: 1


Attached File  590x331_10131629_2013_14_canada_winter_snowfall_1.jpg ( 60.09K ) Number of downloads: 1


QUOTE
The West Coast, including Vancouver, will have a changeable winter with drier than normal conditions for December before more typical winter storminess returns in January.

Temperatures will average close to normal for the first half of the winter then trend above-normal for the second half of the season.

Snowfall along the Coast Range in British Columbia will be typical for an average winter with the greatest potential for heavy snowfall coming in January and early February.

--------

The winter will get off to a strong start across much of the Prairie region with shots of Arctic air being directed south from the Yukon Territory. This will result in increasing opportunities for accumulating snowfall over southern and western Alberta, including Calgary.

Average snowfall is expected for the central Prairies (Saskatoon) this winter, but below-average for the eastern Prairies, including Winnipeg, especially the second half of the winter as a seasonably cold, but dry flow of air takes over.

--------

An active storm track through the Great Lakes during December and into a part of January will lead to above-normal precipitation this winter over a large portion of eastern Canada.

Snowfall will end up higher than normal from the Upper Great Lakes through most of Quebec, including Montreal and up into Labrador. Farther south in Ontario, from Windsor to Toronto and Kingston, the milder pattern during December and January will lead to more mixed precipitation events, which will cut down on the potential for heavier snowfall.

Despite the increase in natural snowfall, snow-making in the eastern and Atlantic Canada resorts could be a challenge the first half of the winter due to the higher temperatures and humidity.

A drier, colder pattern is expected to take over in Ontario and western Quebec during February, as the storm track shifts toward the Maritimes and Newfoundland.

Due to the warmer start of winter in the east, lake-effect snowfall across the snow belts of Ontario will be lighter than usual for December and the first half of January before becoming heavier than normal for the second half of the winter, with more sustained invasions of Arctic air moving over the mostly unfrozen Great Lakes.

------

The combination of the prevailing storm track and above-normal sea surface temperatures will lead to a mild winter in the temperature department for Atlantic Canada.

December and January will be less stormy than usual from Halifax, NS to Charlottetown, PEI with a lack of Arctic air.

A pattern change by February will bring slightly colder air and more storms from Saint John, NB to St. John's, Newfoundland.
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