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> Winter 2013-14, Seasonal Observations
bigmt
post Sep 10 2013, 10:59 AM
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https://twitter.com/BrettAWX

Attached File  nghtjv.png ( 33.84K ) Number of downloads: 0


CFS v2 temp forecast for Dec 2013:

Attached File  usT2mMonInd4.gif ( 27.65K ) Number of downloads: 4


Precip:

Attached File  usPrecMonInd4.gif ( 29.21K ) Number of downloads: 0


Jan 2014 temps:

Attached File  usT2mMonInd5.gif ( 29.06K ) Number of downloads: 1


Precip:

Attached File  usPrecMonInd5.gif ( 30.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


Feb 2013 temps:

Attached File  usT2mMonInd6.gif ( 28.17K ) Number of downloads: 1


Precip:

Attached File  usPrecMonInd6.gif ( 29.34K ) Number of downloads: 0


QUOTE(stuffradio @ Sep 10 2013, 11:06 AM) *
I wish 2008 was not a once in a lifetime event. It was terribly sweet, and caused the city of Vancouver to buy large snow removal equipment. They haven't been able to use the snow removal equipment.


While rare, nature can play against the rules more frequently than we might think.

Attached File  winter08.png ( 15.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default....n=EA4C0989-1#t1

QUOTE
Vancouver is well known for its scanty snowfalls, ranking 98 out of the 100 snowiest cities in Canada, with 48 cm annually. But the winter of 2008-09 saw snowfall totals exceeding 114 cm or 230 per cent more than normal. In fact it was the snowiest winter in 19 years, featuring the second snowiest December on record less than a centimetre from the all-time record of 89.9 cm set in December 1964. Further, Vancouver International Airport had snow on the ground continuously from December 13 to January 8 inclusive, spanning some 27 days, which was the second longest string in 55 years of records. Even more remarkable, following three days with a total of 55 cm of snow, Vancouver had its whitest Christmas morning ever with a 41-cm deep snowcover. The chance of snow on the ground Christmas morning in Vancouver, along with Victoria, is the lowest in Canada (less than 10 per cent), yet the city boasted more snow in 2008 than any other large Canadian city that year, some 41 cm even more than the North Pole!


Attached File  GIsBvzdmJy.png ( 16.48K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default....n=3AA35C31-1#t9

QUOTE
At the end of 1996, a series of brutal winter storms blasted Vancouver Island, the Lower Mainland, and the Fraser Valley with over 100 cm of snow. But it was the 80 cm of snow that fell on December 28 in downtown Victoria that shocked the country. The most unlikely winter city in Canada now had the distinction of having the third highest one-day snowfall of any major city in Canada.


http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/events/vicsnow96.htm

QUOTE
The prime players in this storm event came from quite different neighbourhoods. One of the usual series of Pacific winter storms brought very moist air from the subtropical regions, a flow regime know here as the Pineapple Express, across Washington State, over the Olympic Mountains and onto southern Vancouver Island. At the same time, a huge pool of frigid arctic air from northeastern Asia, known as the Siberian Pipeline, flowed across the northwestern continent heading southward. The cold air over southern interior British Columbia (measured at below minus 15C (5F)) broke through the coastal mountain barriers and flooded over the Strait of Georgia, a frigid tide moving onto Vancouver Island.

Express met Pipeline somewhere over the Victoria region. The result was not the usual heavy winter rain but unusual heavy wet snow as the Pacific moisture bands collided with the escaping arctic blast. The surface temperatures during the stormy period fell below freezing from Christmas Day to the December 30.
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Ryan45
post Sep 10 2013, 12:42 PM
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Bring on Winter..I am hyped!!!


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winter48
post Sep 10 2013, 03:58 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan45 @ Sep 10 2013, 01:42 PM) *
Bring on Winter..I am hyped!!!

Me, too! biggrin.gif Particularly after today's scorching heat!
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knorthern_knight
post Sep 10 2013, 09:37 PM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Sep 10 2013, 11:59 AM) *
CFS v2 temp forecast for Dec 2013:

Attached File  usT2mMonInd4.gif ( 27.65K ) Number of downloads: 4


Jan 2014 temps:

Attached File  usT2mMonInd5.gif ( 29.06K ) Number of downloads: 1


Feb 2013 temps:

Attached File  usT2mMonInd6.gif ( 28.17K ) Number of downloads: 1

One thing I've noticed over the past couple of weeks is that the CFS v2 forecast has been moving towards warmer (and dryer) Dec+Jan+Feb for the Great Lakes. sad.gif
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stuffradio
post Sep 11 2013, 12:10 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Sep 10 2013, 08:59 AM) *
https://twitter.com/BrettAWX

Attached File  nghtjv.png ( 33.84K ) Number of downloads: 0


CFS v2 temp forecast for Dec 2013:

Attached File  usT2mMonInd4.gif ( 27.65K ) Number of downloads: 4


Precip:

Attached File  usPrecMonInd4.gif ( 29.21K ) Number of downloads: 0


Jan 2014 temps:

Attached File  usT2mMonInd5.gif ( 29.06K ) Number of downloads: 1


Precip:

Attached File  usPrecMonInd5.gif ( 30.04K ) Number of downloads: 0


Feb 2013 temps:

Attached File  usT2mMonInd6.gif ( 28.17K ) Number of downloads: 1


Precip:

Attached File  usPrecMonInd6.gif ( 29.34K ) Number of downloads: 0

While rare, nature can play against the rules more frequently than we might think.

Attached File  winter08.png ( 15.61K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default....n=EA4C0989-1#t1
Attached File  GIsBvzdmJy.png ( 16.48K ) Number of downloads: 0


http://www.ec.gc.ca/meteo-weather/default....n=3AA35C31-1#t9
http://www.islandnet.com/~see/weather/events/vicsnow96.htm

Those were only two special years. 2006-2008 winters were all decent to excellent. Ever since the 2006-2008 stretch. We did have one really decent 2 week stretch in January 2012, but that's 2 weeks out of the 3 months.
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blizzardOf96
post Sep 14 2013, 09:34 AM
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JMA DJF forecast hot off the presses. Has active STJ with trough centred over eastern canada. Slightly -NAO, -EPO, +PNA and -AO look to the pattern.
Attached File  Y201309.D0800.png ( 132.21K ) Number of downloads: 4


This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Sep 14 2013, 09:35 AM


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blizzardOf96
post Sep 14 2013, 12:31 PM
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I saw this posted on the new Euro Monthlies:

December: A healthy Alaskan Vortex/+EPO..zonal flow over the US, despite a -NAO.
January: A huge ridge over the west, strong -EPO type pattern with ridging from the NW US into Alaska... a significant -AO.
February: Ridge apparently retrogrades offshore, just as strong as in January. Strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO.

Important to note that euro monthlies are different then the seasonal's which brett posted.

This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Sep 14 2013, 12:35 PM


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bigmt
post Sep 15 2013, 07:41 AM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Sep 14 2013, 01:31 PM) *
I saw this posted on the new Euro Monthlies:

December: A healthy Alaskan Vortex/+EPO..zonal flow over the US, despite a -NAO.
January: A huge ridge over the west, strong -EPO type pattern with ridging from the NW US into Alaska... a significant -AO.
February: Ridge apparently retrogrades offshore, just as strong as in January. Strong -EPO/-AO/-NAO.

Important to note that euro monthlies are different then the seasonal's which brett posted.


We'd have to trade Dec for a good Jan/Feb if that's true. Not an ideal scenario but I'd go for it smile.gif

It's the western ridge that retrogrades back off the coast in Feb I assume?

September JAMSTEC temp forecast for Dec-Jan-Feb 2013-14:

Attached File  temp2.glob.DJF2014.1sep2013.gif ( 67.19K ) Number of downloads: 3


Precip:

Attached File  tprep.glob.DJF2014.1sep2013.gif ( 82.6K ) Number of downloads: 0
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blizzardOf96
post Sep 15 2013, 08:14 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Sep 15 2013, 08:41 AM) *
It's the western ridge that retrogrades back off the coast in Feb I assume?


Yes that's correct.


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bigmt
post Sep 15 2013, 08:19 AM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Sep 15 2013, 09:14 AM) *
Yes that's correct.


Any info about March?
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blizzardOf96
post Sep 15 2013, 08:54 AM
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QUOTE(bigmt @ Sep 15 2013, 09:19 AM) *
Any info about March?



Not specific to March but heres the latest on the Euro SIP seasonal package that came out today.

QUOTE
The new Euro SIP seasonal looks tasty with a big ridge over NW Canada and AK with a -NAO. The DJF timeframe even has what may be a PV feature in SE Canada, at least it progs slightly below normal heights there meaning the PV may reside there from time to time. There is also slight Gulf ridging too which makes me think a weak SE ridge may be trying to make an appearance from time to time.



This post has been edited by blizzardOf96: Sep 15 2013, 09:41 AM


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blizzardOf96
post Sep 19 2013, 10:15 AM
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Latest thoughts on the upcoming winter posted on my blog. Could see an interesting setup across Eastern Canada/maritimes with a +NAO and a storm track similar to DEC 07-08 possibly.


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JJ Snowlover
post Sep 19 2013, 02:35 PM
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QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Sep 14 2013, 01:31 PM) *
I saw this posted on the new Euro Monthlies:

December: A healthy Alaskan Vortex/+EPO..zonal flow over the US, despite a -NAO.

I dont like that Dec outlook, seems eeriely familar to every other year LOL

QUOTE(blizzardOf96 @ Sep 19 2013, 11:15 AM) *
Latest thoughts on the upcoming winter posted on my blog. Could see an interesting setup across Eastern Canada/maritimes with a +NAO and a storm track similar to DEC 07-08 possibly.

Well that would be nice, wouldn't it tongue.gif But I assume that means there will be some warm anamolies this winter. I think we got off lucky 07-08, it was slightly warm...it could have gone down a different way sad.gif
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stuffradio
post Sep 20 2013, 12:36 AM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Sep 19 2013, 12:35 PM) *
I dont like that Dec outlook, seems eeriely familar to every other year LOL
Well that would be nice, wouldn't it tongue.gif But I assume that means there will be some warm anamolies this winter. I think we got off lucky 07-08, it was slightly warm...it could have gone down a different way sad.gif

I wouldn't mind 07-08 in the west. 06-07, 07-08 and 08-09 were all good winters out this way.
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Ryan45
post Sep 20 2013, 04:13 PM
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I'll take copious amounts of snow...wink.gif
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Attached File  Screenshot_2013_09_20_17_11_58.jpg ( 484K ) Number of downloads: 17
 


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JJ Snowlover
post Sep 20 2013, 08:15 PM
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QUOTE(Ryan45 @ Sep 20 2013, 05:13 PM) *
I'll take copious amounts of snow...wink.gif

What does E/C moisture mean for my area, equal chance??
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EOsnowmom
post Sep 21 2013, 06:28 AM
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QUOTE(JJ Snowlover @ Sep 20 2013, 09:15 PM) *
What does E/C moisture mean for my area, equal chance??

Yup! I hope the closer we get to winter, we get moved into the copious amounts of snow area. LOL
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hockeynut
post Sep 22 2013, 04:55 PM
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I really am hoping for a nice cold snowy winter this year the last 2 years where way to warm.. I have gotten a few new upgrades this year for my rink and some new gear to use I really hope I am ab le to use it this year.. Keep up all the awesome work as allways..

Cheers

Hockeynut
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Jeremy404
post Sep 22 2013, 08:05 PM
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now that severe thunder storm season is over, lets skip autumn and jump straight to blizzards rolleyes.gif
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dsichewski
post Sep 22 2013, 09:48 PM
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well this is the first year in 15 years the the grass stayed green the enitire summe....and the winter that followed that summer we got whalloped...6ft of snow in total

Before hearing of the above I thought 2 things to myself either

1) summer delayed itself and will surface in the winter like it did in 09/10 and we get screwed now with no winter/snow at all

or

2) the cooler weather persists and winter makes an early snowfall start, hammers the *bleep* outta us and lasts till april...

due to a change in jobs this summer I want #2 and I don't lol yeah I'll take #2 how can i resist lol
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