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> ISO/Rossby Wave 2013-2014, That Time Of Year
jdrenken
post Aug 20 2013, 08:26 PM
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After talking with OSNW3, we have determined that there is a need for a new thread due to the standard morphing this time of year.


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OSNW3
post Aug 21 2013, 12:10 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Aug 20 2013, 08:26 PM) *
After talking with OSNW3, we have determined that there is a need for a new thread due to the standard morphing this time of year.


Morphing taking place?

See 7/9 and 8/21 and move forward. Let's consider the 3/4 harmonic.

43 / .75 = 57 days.

BTW, this time frame created the retrograding Low, could the RGL have signaled a cycle buster/morph?

Not sure... "we will have to wait and see what happens". smile.gif

Can't rule out a 43 day cycle either. LOL.


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OSNW3
post Sep 2 2013, 10:08 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Aug 21 2013, 12:10 PM) *
Morphing taking place?

See 7/9 and 8/21 and move forward. Let's consider the 3/4 harmonic.

43 / .75 = 57 days.

BTW, this time frame created the retrograding Low, could the RGL have signaled a cycle buster/morph?

Not sure... "we will have to wait and see what happens". smile.gif

Can't rule out a 43 day cycle either. LOL.


Map Comparison! 12-13 Holding Strong? 13-14 Morphing? http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/


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NorEaster07
post Sep 2 2013, 10:37 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 2 2013, 11:08 AM) *
Map Comparison! 12-13 Holding Strong? 13-14 Morphing? http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/


I wanted to play devils advocate here and find a similar setup within the cycle, I have to admit, it was hard (only looked in July) and so I'm intrigued again. smile.gif

Just to post the images in here to have...

August 31st like you show


52 days prior is July 10th here. Interesting


So next similar setup would be around October 23 if the cycle/morph doesn't change?

Here's a question.... Is it only specific setups that have the cycle? In other words, we're using August 31st. Would Sept 2nd setup be the same 52 days prior?

here's August 5th


52 days prior June 14th.




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Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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OSNW3
post Sep 2 2013, 11:21 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 2 2013, 10:37 AM) *
I wanted to play devils advocate here and find a similar setup within the cycle, I have to admit, it was hard (only looked in July) and so I'm intrigued again. smile.gif


Awesome. We need more of this.

QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 2 2013, 10:37 AM) *
So next similar setup would be around October 23 if the cycle/morph doesn't change?


The cycle length will change. You will notice the change in October. The patterns within the cycle will change in October as well, and you will notice it.

QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 2 2013, 10:37 AM) *
here's August 5th
52 days prior June 14th.


The cycle length isn't static. After all the atmosphere is fluid. Using your Aug-5 comparison, try Jun-16. Follow the maps and remember to give or take a day. AND this is why map comparison is a cancer to the LRC. smile.gif


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OSNW3
post Sep 2 2013, 11:24 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 2 2013, 10:37 AM) *
Just to post the images in here to have...

August 31st like you show

52 days prior is July 10th here. Interesting


I like the Jul-9 better when making a map comparison. http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/


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NorEaster07
post Sep 11 2013, 03:07 PM
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As we get torched today with incredible temps out there in the 90s, Here's a stretch for ya. When looking at the extreme's I noticed this.

BDL's Record Daily Max temps.

Is it coincidence that the 11th of September has the second highest temp for the month or is there a cycle in there somewhere? Did something trigger today being so hot because it was once the 2nd hottest temp of the month?

9/11/83

Attached File  recordsE.jpg ( 190.54K ) Number of downloads: 0




--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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jdrenken
post Sep 11 2013, 04:48 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 11 2013, 03:07 PM) *
As we get torched today with incredible temps out there in the 90s, Here's a stretch for ya. When looking at the extreme's I noticed this.

BDL's Record Daily Max temps.

Is it coincidence that the 11th of September has the second highest temp for the month or is there a cycle in there somewhere? Did something trigger today being so hot because it was once the 2nd hottest temp of the month?

9/11/83

Attached File  recordsE.jpg ( 190.54K ) Number of downloads: 0



Just a quick numbering of the days backwards shows that it could have had a 52/53 day cycle in relation to the 103 degree temp recorded on July 22nd. OSNW3 could make up a quick calendar though.


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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OSNW3
post Sep 11 2013, 05:11 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 11 2013, 04:48 PM) *
Just a quick numbering of the days backwards shows that it could have had a 52/53 day cycle in relation to the 103 degree temp recorded on July 22nd. OSNW3 could make up a quick calendar though.


Absolutely. LOL

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclim...3-Calendar.html

I like 7/19 give or take a day...





On a side note... September is a crazy month. People want the new patterns and cycle duration NOW. But, they need to be patient. 75% of what you see in September is leftover from the ongoing cycle. The real excitement happens in late Sep, Oct and early Nov.

Watching the patterns morph into a new cycle is exciting too, however. I saw a 47 day cycle just the other day, going back to June, then all of a sudden the last week of June disappeared from the cycle and that crazy retrograding L swept across the CONUS in early July... smile.gif


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NorEaster07
post Sep 11 2013, 05:38 PM
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Fascinating. Thanks. I'm getting nervous of this "morph". I don't remember seeing what your thoughts were on what we "might" change into. I kinda like this current pattern. lol


--------------------
Season Snow Totals: Avg=27"
2010-11 - 64.5"...(60" Happened in 4 weeks)
2011-12 - 14.0"
2012-13 - 46.8"
2013-14 - 65.3"
2014-15 - 61.5"
2015-16 - 29.9"
2016-17 - 39.6"
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jdrenken
post Sep 11 2013, 10:07 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 11 2013, 05:38 PM) *
Fascinating. Thanks. I'm getting nervous of this "morph". I don't remember seeing what your thoughts were on what we "might" change into. I kinda like this current pattern. lol


I will be honest, I haven't paid much attention to the LRC lately. My focus has been the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules. They will help validate an earlier cycle determination though.


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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OSNW3
post Sep 12 2013, 08:42 AM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Sep 11 2013, 10:07 PM) *
I will be honest, I haven't paid much attention to the LRC lately. My focus has been the Bering Sea and Typhoon Rules. They will help validate an earlier cycle determination though.


Most certainly. Ahead of the game we will be.

QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Sep 11 2013, 05:38 PM) *
Fascinating. Thanks. I'm getting nervous of this "morph". I don't remember seeing what your thoughts were on what we "might" change into. I kinda like this current pattern. lol


LOL. "Fascinating". I don't have any thoughts on what it might change into. But, in a week or so the #beringsearule and #typhoonrule will aid in early detection... with better precision than long range computer models.

As many of us say around this time frame... Fun times!


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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 12 2013, 10:21 AM
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creeping in this thread every week alittle more now...good information in here...not just talking about the oct-nov time frame itself
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OSNW3
post Sep 12 2013, 11:24 AM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 12 2013, 10:21 AM) *
creeping in this thread every week alittle more now...good information in here...not just talking about the oct-nov time frame itself


It's all in how we perceive it, I suppose. Doug Heady (Joplinmet) writes this in a recent blog.

"This will be the beginning of changes for the rest of the month. Remember my pattern the Heady Pattern. The pattern will be completely set here in about 2 weeks. That means how storm systems will track and react. However, the cycle has been set for a few months now. I have been forecasting off of this for a while now. The cycle means how often the storm systems occur. That is how I do my long range forecasting."

What it boils down to is, there are intraseasonal oscillations out there, and we are able to pick up on them. If the cycle ends up being 43 or 57 days... I found that ish the third week of August. LOL wink.gif


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OSNW3
post Sep 12 2013, 10:05 PM
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Funny ish.

When I lost my virginity.
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/2010_11_01_archive.html

LOL. It's all history now. Time flies when you're having fun I suppose.

Oshkosh Winters Of 1977-78 & 1978-79 Remembered & Finding Lezak's Recurring Cycle Within Them
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/2011/03/oshko...78-1978-79.html

Lezak's Recurring Cycle 1988-89
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/2011/10/lezak...le-1988-89.html

Eastern WI - May 10, 1990 & The LRC
http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/2012/05/easte...0-1990-lrc.html


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OSNW3
post Sep 14 2013, 08:45 AM
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Looking for the "transition" cycle once again. How far back should I go? Glimpses early on. I am seeing 47 ish days. Fun stuff.

http://osnw3lrc.blogspot.com/2013/09/the-2...erspective.html


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thenewbigmack
post Sep 15 2013, 05:20 AM
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I have to give you props Josh... since the moment you began studying the LRC, you've been dedicated and very informative. I've had my ups and downs with the LRC, but in all honesty, it really appears that it struggles to hold steady on the West Coast. As you may remember, I tried using the theory on Western Weather forums, only to get shot down not only by the members, but the LRC as well. I'm not sure if the Pacific plays a role, but unless you can prove otherwise, I may have to give up on the method for the West.... Which I don't want to do
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OSNW3
post Sep 15 2013, 08:29 AM
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QUOTE(thenewbigmack @ Sep 15 2013, 05:20 AM) *
I have to give you props Josh... Which I don't want to do


LOL. Thanks man. SEA wasn't all that bad. smile.gif

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclim...3/1213-SEA.html


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ohiobuckeye45
post Sep 16 2013, 10:04 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Sep 15 2013, 08:29 AM) *
LOL. Thanks man. SEA wasn't all that bad. smile.gif

http://www.theplayerstour.net/osnw3/wxclim...3/1213-SEA.html

Any thoughts on the potential tanking NAO falling AO and rising PNA which we havent seen in MONTHS since the last cycle....coincidence that as the old cycle is falling and the new one is just RIGHT around the corner we're seeing major major telleconnection changes on the horizon bordering the "offical" start of the new LRC?! good times...
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OSNW3
post Sep 16 2013, 09:31 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Sep 16 2013, 10:04 AM) *
Any thoughts on the potential tanking NAO falling AO and rising PNA which we havent seen in MONTHS since the last cycle....coincidence that as the old cycle is falling and the new one is just RIGHT around the corner we're seeing major major telleconnection changes on the horizon bordering the "offical" start of the new LRC?! good times...


I am not a tele-junkie, so I cannot say for sure... but I do know I like where your head is at. smile.gif


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