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> ISO/Rossby Wave 2013-2014, That Time Of Year
OSNW3
post Jan 9 2014, 12:35 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Jan 9 2014, 09:23 AM) *
southern shift expected with deeper jet alignments deeper into the season....yet the song remains the same, just sung in a "lower" tone....


The 4-D array that is needed (or at least thought to) to forecast using the recurring Rossby is in it's infancy. But know... we are working on it. LOL. There are some very interesting ideas coming out of the statistical correlation of cycle frequency work we are doing that I think you will enjoy.


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JDClapper
post Jan 9 2014, 03:29 PM
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As cycle 2 has wraped up (this is using a ~51 day cycle) .. there was a little hiccup on the temp side at the very end where the polar vortex swung through.. cycle 1 was much warmer. It can't always be "perfect" I guess.

Anyways, I find generally the temps are in good sync on a ~51 day cycle, but the precip seems to be more of a ~50? Cycle 2 storms just seemed about a day "early", looking at the graph at a glance. Cycle 2 also was cooler and more active on the storm side. I hope this trend continues for Cycle 3 (colder and stormy all the time.) wink.gif

So, here's some pretty graphs using Williamsport, PA data via noaa.gov. Mean temps and precip, then the chart that creates those stunning graphs.

Attached File  tempprecip.GIF ( 24.87K ) Number of downloads: 0


Attached File  chart.GIF ( 58.01K ) Number of downloads: 0




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Avg. Snowfall 2001-2013: 33½"

'13-'14: 45¼" and counting...
'12-'13: 33¼"
'11-'12: 13"
'10-'11: 42¾"
'09-'10: 33¼"
'08-'09: 20¾"
'07-'08: 32"
'06-'07: 29¾"
'05-'06: 24½"
'04-'05: 36¾"
'03-'04: 53¾"
'02-'03: 63"
'01-'02: 20"
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NorEaster07
post Jan 10 2014, 06:25 PM
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Not sure what this implies for us in the Lower 48. Also.. when an upper low is in the Gulf of Alaska what affect does that have on the Ridge out Western U.S? Doesn't it nudge it east?

NWS Anchorage

500 PM AKST FRI JAN 10 2014

QUOTE
WEDNESDAY AND BEYOND...

THE EXPECTED PATTERN WILL CHANGE DRAMATICALLY
AS A POWERFUL 220 KNOT EAST ASIAN PACIFIC JET SENDS A SERIES OF
STRONG LOWS AND A VIGOROUS WARM FRONT INTO THE BERING SEA AND GULF OF
ALASKA. THE GFS AND ECMWF ARE IN VERY GOOD GENERAL AGREEMENT WITH A
LEADING WARM FRONT TRACKING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA WEDNESDAY. GIVEN THE
COLD AIR IN PLACE...THIS WOULD LIKELY BEGIN AS OVERRUNNING SNOW
ACROSS MOST LOCATIONS...TURNING TO RAIN ALONG THE COAST.
THEREAFTER...UNCERTAINTY RAPIDLY GROWS WITH THE TIMING AND TRACK OF
INDIVIDUAL LOWS...BUT THERE IS HIGH CERTAINTY STORMINESS WILL
INCREASE SIGNIFICANTLY ACROSS THE BERING SEA AND GULF...WITH A
CHINOOK DRIVING INTO SOUTHERN ALASKA


This post has been edited by NorEaster07: Jan 10 2014, 06:25 PM


--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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OSNW3
post Jan 11 2014, 10:30 AM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 10 2014, 05:25 PM) *
Not sure what this implies for us in the Lower 48.


Active weather in my neck of the woods projected to end JAN and much of FEB.

Attached File  znow45.png ( 64.63K ) Number of downloads: 1



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RobB
post Jan 11 2014, 10:45 AM
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Always interesting man. Thanks again for your work:
Attached File(s)
Attached File  Cycle.jpg ( 152.44K ) Number of downloads: 2
 
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RobB
post Jan 11 2014, 10:46 AM
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At the very least, the Dayton area looks fun for me to try and track the weather smile.gif
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OSNW3
post Jan 11 2014, 11:19 AM
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QUOTE(RobB @ Jan 11 2014, 09:46 AM) *
At the very least, the Dayton area looks fun for me to try and track the weather smile.gif


Always trying to improve. While this years formulas are grinding away, I am already working on next years improvements. (hopefully it is an improvement, haha).

To note, the pcpn chances and amounts data will be updating soon as the cycle ratio increments upward. Check back for the update in a day or so. I believe it will occur during tonights run, if not, tomorrows.

I am happy that you see a little entertainment from the data. smile.gif


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Gilbertfly
post Jan 11 2014, 11:20 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Jan 11 2014, 10:19 AM) *
Always trying to improve. While this years formulas are grinding away, I am already working on next years improvements. (hopefully it is an improvement, haha).

To note, the pcpn chances and amounts data will be updating soon as the cycle ratio increments upward. Check back for the update in a day or so. I believe it will occur during tonights run, if not, tomorrows.

I am happy that you see a little entertainment from the data. smile.gif


I love it....fantastic tool! wink.gif
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RobB
post Jan 11 2014, 11:28 AM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Jan 11 2014, 11:20 AM) *
I love it....fantastic tool! wink.gif


+1
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jdrenken
post Jan 13 2014, 12:36 PM
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QUOTE
Hello everyone,

This is Joe Renken of KOPN Weather bringing you the weekly long range discussion for the KOPN listening area. East Asia is showing at least 4 systems that will impact our weather between the 18th and 28th. There are two systems that will be the strongest of the bunch and they are in the 26th and 28th time periods. Due to the multiple systems, look for the last 10 days of the month to be below normal.
Two days ago I posted a blog entry explaining the implications of a strong low pressure in the Bering Sea showing up roughly between the 18th and 21st. At the same time, the dreaded “polar vortex” that was the talk of early last week splits. Some of the energy travels down into the Lower 48 on the 18th while some energy travels into the Bering Sea. Look for very cold conditions between the 10th and 13th that could rival our departures around the 6th of this month. Good news on the horizon as ridging starts to show up and we will be looking at warming mid-month.
Don’t forget to get the word out about our long range forecasting on www.weather.kopn.org to your friends and family as it’s being noticed on the blogsphere.


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

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jdrenken
post Jan 13 2014, 04:14 PM
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Correction.. cold period between the 7th & 12th. My mind was stuck on February so much that I counted the days as if it was already February with a 28 day month. rolleyes.gif sigh


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It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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ohiobuckeye45
post Jan 15 2014, 12:28 PM
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QUOTE(ohiobuckeye45 @ Dec 22 2013, 01:05 AM) *
The current storm is going to make the already signature dates of V-day/Pres day very interesting a while from now

tick tock....
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Gilbertfly
post Jan 15 2014, 12:58 PM
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nugget timetable check....who doesn't love some nuggets?! I mean c'mon....they could be chicken, chocolate, broccoli-cheese........

THEN...23NOV2013

QUOTE
Appearance of the mild “Pineapple Express” on continent’s West Coast and expanding Lower 48 snowpack have put arctic air in play

Several factors are contributing to this unseasonable outbreak of cold weather. The arrival of chilly air in recent days has produced snowfall to Chicago’s west which has, in turn, covered the ground.

NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, reports that while just 7% of the Lower 48 recorded a cover of snow on Wednesday, the number had grown to 28.2% Friday morning—a four-fold increase!

Cold air thrives over a white and therefore highly reflective surface such as snow cover, because as much as 80 or 90% of incoming sunlight is reflected back to space when snow’s present.

The increasingly snowy national landscape in conjunction with a strong flow of mild, moist air into southern Alaska Friday, are the driving forces behind the plunge of cold air taking place in the Great Lakes region this weekend.




NOW....14JAN2014

QUOTE
Pattern and recurring cold outbreaks to continue in coming weeks; warm Pacific ocean waters and mild, wet Pineapple Express pattern into Alaska and western North American playing a role

A jet stream which, as it has so frequently all season to date, continues buckling north to Alaska, is likely to continue doing so in the weeks ahead. Low-level southerly winds riding into Alaska and western North America off Pacific and Gulf of Alaska waters which are running as much as 6-degrees above normal, are showing signs of continuing to drive a highly “wavy” North American jet stream pattern which features huge temp shifts because of regular swings between mild Pacific and frigid arctic air.


This post has been edited by Gilbertfly: Jan 15 2014, 01:25 PM
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jdrenken
post Jan 15 2014, 03:20 PM
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QUOTE(Gilbertfly @ Jan 15 2014, 11:58 AM) *
nugget timetable check....who doesn't love some nuggets?! I mean c'mon....they could be chicken, chocolate, broccoli-cheese........

THEN...23NOV2013

QUOTE
Appearance of the mild “Pineapple Express” on continent’s West Coast and expanding Lower 48 snowpack have put arctic air in play

Several factors are contributing to this unseasonable outbreak of cold weather. The arrival of chilly air in recent days has produced snowfall to Chicago’s west which has, in turn, covered the ground.

NOAA, the parent agency of the National Weather Service, reports that while just 7% of the Lower 48 recorded a cover of snow on Wednesday, the number had grown to 28.2% Friday morning—a four-fold increase!

Cold air thrives over a white and therefore highly reflective surface such as snow cover, because as much as 80 or 90% of incoming sunlight is reflected back to space when snow’s present.

The increasingly snowy national landscape in conjunction with a strong flow of mild, moist air into southern Alaska Friday, are the driving forces behind the plunge of cold air taking place in the Great Lakes region this weekend.




NOW....14JAN2014

QUOTE
Pattern and recurring cold outbreaks to continue in coming weeks; warm Pacific ocean waters and mild, wet Pineapple Express pattern into Alaska and western North American playing a role

A jet stream which, as it has so frequently all season to date, continues buckling north to Alaska, is likely to continue doing so in the weeks ahead. Low-level southerly winds riding into Alaska and western North America off Pacific and Gulf of Alaska waters which are running as much as 6-degrees above normal, are showing signs of continuing to drive a highly “wavy” North American jet stream pattern which features huge temp shifts because of regular swings between mild Pacific and frigid arctic air.



HOO-AHH! Pure gold!



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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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NE MA Weather
post Jan 15 2014, 07:42 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 13 2014, 04:14 PM) *
Correction.. cold period between the 7th & 12th. My mind was stuck on February so much that I counted the days as if it was already February with a 28 day month. rolleyes.gif sigh

So you said colder from 18-28 and 7-12. What about in between there?


--------------------
Winter 2013-2014 Total Snowfall: 43"

12/6--Coating
12/9--1"
12/10--0.5"
12/14--7"
12/17--5"
12/26--Coating
1/2--13"
1/10--0.5"
1/18--4"
2/3--1"
2/5--9.5"
2/9--0.5"

Winter 2012-2013 Total Snowfall: 55"
Greatest snowfall for '12-'13: 21" (2/9)
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jdrenken
post Jan 15 2014, 10:50 PM
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QUOTE(NE MA Weather @ Jan 15 2014, 06:42 PM) *
So you said colder from 18-28 and 7-12. What about in between there?


The original post said between the 10-13th. That is in February. sorry for the confusion.


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For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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jdrenken
post Jan 16 2014, 05:12 PM
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Don't expect the models to have a good handle on this...
Attached File  OPC_48hr_16JAN14.PNG ( 406.92K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hmmm...56 days earlier. wink.gif
Attached File  23NOV13_OPC_500MB.PNG ( 411.86K ) Number of downloads: 0


#longrangeforecasting #organicforecasting #trifecta #lrc #beringsearule

http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=357


--------------------
QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






89.5 FM KOPN Weather Blog

If it is important enough to you, you will find a way. If it is not, you will find an excuse.
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RobB
post Jan 16 2014, 05:16 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 16 2014, 05:12 PM) *
Don't expect the models to have a good handle on this...


Geesh. Nice train..
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Gilbertfly
post Jan 16 2014, 05:55 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 16 2014, 04:12 PM) *
Don't expect the models to have a good handle on this...

Hmmm...56 days earlier. wink.gif


#longrangeforecasting #organicforecasting #trifecta #lrc #beringsearule


Bazzzzinga!!!! awesome
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RobB
post Jan 16 2014, 06:03 PM
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QUOTE(jdrenken @ Jan 16 2014, 05:12 PM) *
Don't expect the models to have a good handle on this...
Attached File  OPC_48hr_16JAN14.PNG ( 406.92K ) Number of downloads: 1


Hmmm...56 days earlier. wink.gif
Attached File  23NOV13_OPC_500MB.PNG ( 411.86K ) Number of downloads: 0


#longrangeforecasting #organicforecasting #trifecta #lrc #beringsearule

http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=357


What do you mean. It is not EXACTLY the same ;o) Sarcasm intended. Very cool man.
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