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> Long Range Spring 2014 Outlook, Spring is less than 100 days away
bingobobbo
post Dec 9 2013, 11:08 PM
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Spring often gets lost in the shuffle and I discovered that, while there is a thread for next summer (and even next winter), there isn't one for the spring of 2014 yet, even though the vernal equinox is exactly 100 days away. I am wondering whether the ENSO will favor El Nino, La Nina, or a continued neutral regime. Any thoughts?

For Binghamton, I predict that the first 60-degree day will be on March 23, the first 70-degree day on April 14, and the first 80-degree day on May 12.


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Binghamton--the home of the snow doughnut hole!
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snowsux
post Jan 4 2014, 09:12 PM
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Well, according to today's "Saturday Summary" from JB, Spring is gonna be delayed just like it was last year.
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snowmonster123
post Jan 7 2014, 05:42 PM
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When spring arrives all I know is that it will be very stormy. With all the big air masses at work in the winter I think they will be hard to kick out and make for a bumpy ride. That and I expect moderate to major flooding. Look for at least a decent farming season. I will know more about this in a month!


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Out of Hibernation and liking the set up for this winter so far!
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OSNW3
post Jan 21 2014, 02:21 PM
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QUOTE(snowmonster123 @ Jan 7 2014, 04:42 PM) *
When spring arrives all I know is that it will be very stormy. With all the big air masses at work in the winter I think they will be hard to kick out and make for a bumpy ride. That and I expect moderate to major flooding. Look for at least a decent farming season. I will know more about this in a month!


Spring (MAM) trends for the STL.

Attached File  iso05.png ( 75.5K ) Number of downloads: 7



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NorEaster07
post Jan 31 2014, 12:02 PM
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Posted by Paulie P today.

Attached File  temps2.jpg ( 121.28K ) Number of downloads: 17



--------------------
Snow Totals Per Season:

2007-08: 21"
2008-09: 41"
2009-10: 39.5"
2010-11: 71.5"
2011-12: 14"
2012-13: 46.5"
2013-14: 56.75"

Average(BDR since 1950) = 27.75"
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snowsux
post Jan 31 2014, 03:38 PM
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QUOTE(NorEaster07 @ Jan 31 2014, 12:02 PM) *
Posted by Paulie P today.

Attached File  temps2.jpg ( 121.28K ) Number of downloads: 17


Wow, above-normal precipitation here in western PA. Who would've thought. At least it doesn't look like a total "worsh-aht" in this map.
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RobB
post Jan 31 2014, 04:31 PM
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OOOps....Wrong Thread...

This post has been edited by RobB: Feb 5 2014, 07:48 PM
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yhm_hamilton
post Feb 5 2014, 07:13 PM
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So anyone have any thoughts in spring. it is inching closer.
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snowsux
post Feb 5 2014, 07:50 PM
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QUOTE(yhm_hamilton @ Feb 5 2014, 07:13 PM) *
So anyone have any thoughts in spring. it is inching closer.


Looks like a slow start to it in the east as per the GFS.
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OSNW3
post Feb 6 2014, 08:07 AM
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Any one from WI in here? Projected March temp anomalies based on LRC/BSR.

Attached File  znow41.png ( 67.01K ) Number of downloads: 2


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ErieWx
post Feb 16 2014, 09:42 AM
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PDO slightly positive again. Thoughts?
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kpk33x
post Feb 20 2014, 11:09 AM
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2014 Spring Forecast
February 20, 2014
Covers the period March 1-May 31, concentrating on Mid Atl/NE specifically S Central PA.

I’m going to take a crack at this because my winter forecast (made Sept. 19!) came out so well. Luckily well? Maybe. Let’s see how spring goes.
Apologies for longer post – I do not have a website.

Disclaimer! I’m an amateur who knows enough to be dangerous. I do very much mine the past for corollaries that might not fit the prevailing teleconnections (look for resemblances rather than tele matches). I do not study spring weather patterns anywhere close to the amount than I do winter’s. However, we’re a lot closer to the start of meteorological spring than we were when I made my winter guess so that should help. The start of “Spring” is now coming out of the long range models and into the mid range.

Source material and assumptions:
LRC, as much as I can take away from understanding it and how the pattern has set up and evolves. Given its performance this winter I’ve elevated it significantly in my considerations.

Assumption that ENSO index will remain close to neutral. I have seen one or two posts about it becoming at least somewhat positive, but the effects should be muted or at least not overwhelm the entire pattern.

Continued mainly neutral to positive NAO. Usually big snow years in the east are a result of a persistent –NAO e.g. 2009-10. Not this year. Lack of –NAO also means less cut-off cold rainstorms in the spring and COULD result in a drier pattern overall for the coastal areas. To put it another way, a –NAO pattern in spring generates more cutoffs and nor’easters, so chances are when that is not present things turn out on the drier side
Sunspot cycle coming off a low peak and dropping.

Colder than normal N Atlantic ocean temps, record or near-record icepack on the Great Lakes and persistent snow cover to the north and northwest, all making me think winter will “hang on”.

No giant climate-disrupting volcanic eruptions. If there is one this spring, the effects would likely not be seen until fall/winter anyway.

Climatology and experience.

March
I put “Spring” in quotes above because in much of the US East of the Rockies it’s going to have a lot of trouble getting started. Long range CPC, NAEFS, and LRC into March all seem to indicate western ridging and further generally warm and dry conditions there. The east, especially the Great Lakes into New England, will start March with significant negative departures and perhaps more snow. This correlates back to early January when the dreaded Polar Vortex set many low temperature records.
Remember its March, not January, so it won’t get to -1F at my house. But still, highs struggling to get to freezing and lows in the teens here is cold, and it certainly won’t make a dent in the snowpack in the Northeast. A snowstorm could punctuate late Feb and also a few days into March as the trough relaxes a bit.

There will be a break of average and perhaps some above average temperatures for much of the east in mid month. I have a shot at hitting 70F but am more confident it gets to the 60s. Don’t be fooled. Cooler than average – although not as far below normal as early month – will return for the last 10 days or so of the month. This will result in likely negative departures for the month overall in much of the east north of the gulf and east of the high plains, with the highest negatives in the Great Lakes and Wisconsin, perhaps E. MN.

Severe weather is possible, as always, but will be suppressed more to the south than normal along the Gulf and perhaps riding a front up into TN/KY or further west out into MO and Southern IL/IN.
For S Central PA March will be coldest relative to normal and still more wintry. My guess is at least a couple degrees below normal. I don’t want to say 1984 but I can probably say “mini 1984” or perhaps 1996, but drier. 2013 also in consideration. Precip will range at or below normal. Snowfall is very likely to be above normal here, as it takes just one moderate event to put us there.

April
April will be the wettest month relative to normal of the three and average close to normal temperature wise, perhaps even slightly above, like a degree above.

The springtime influences of the SE ridge and northward-migrating jet should start to become more apparent. That means a further west and north storm track than winter which #1 will produce more rain than snow here and #2 give the Great Lakes and Northern New England more snow. The progressive pattern from much of the winter should hold over, giving several opportunities for soakings. This could be problematic further north in terms of snowmelt and flooding. We are talking more frequent light to moderate events here rather than a dry month with one big rainstorm to even it out.

Early April should warm up, there will be a cold interlude heading into mid month (8th-15th) where late season wet snow traces are possible in my area, then at least a good week or so of springtime. This may be when I see both my first 70F temperature and 80F temperature, because I am pretty doubtful I see anything above 70F in March. At the end of the month cold (not just cool) air will invade one last time. More on that in a minute.

The severe weather track will look more spring-like and give chances of severe weather in the Ohio Valley and southern to central Plains, which is more typical of April. Of course, it’s still possible north of this, just not as likely.

For S Central PA April will be warmest relative to normal and perhaps run as much as 1-2 degrees above normal overall. Rainfall should come out to average to somewhat above average. Take your pick from any near normal April, I do not see it as being a historic or especially memorable one unless a severe weather outbreak makes it one.

May

May will come out drier and colder than average here.

The northwest flow domination that we saw much of last year will be coming back. That does not mean that there will not be warmer days, especially if it becomes dry allowing for the 13-14 hours of sunshine to produce wide diurnal ranges. It will be dry but not severe drought-dry for most of the area as cooler temperatures will mitigate the effects. The setup reminds me of what I understand about the northwest flow generally dominating the early-mid 1960s.

Speaking of which, the LRC cycle timing and experience prompts me to produce a call that this will be my best chance in my nearly 40 years to see snowflakes in May. A sharp cold front could come through right at the end of April/first couple days of May and produce cold enough conditions for snow here. The last trace of snow in May was May 9, 1977 at MDT and May 1, 1963 at BWI. Of course not far from here we’ve had May snow, notably May 2008 in the Poconos/NE PA from a cold cut-off low, but we’re talking lowlands and maybe the cities. So the Apps and highest peaks could be white without too much of a stretch, but chances of flakes IMBY are about 1% by the numbers. This is an “all things have to go right/wrong” type of setup in my neck of the woods after May 1, but there’s a good chance at this, let’s say 25-30%. I won’t be completely surprised to see flakes this May. You heard it here first!

New England and perhaps Upper Midwest will see a slow spring transition, with frosts and freezes delaying and threatening the growing season even through May. New England will also tend drier than normal, especially near the coast. At the same token, surges of warmer air especially in the southeast could set up a battle ground for severe weather outbreaks. After all, the SE Ridge isn’t going away, it just will be muted and suppressed as it has been much of the last several months.
It’s a given the Plains get tornados in May but I don’t have the experience to make a call on relativity to normal or where they will concentrate…and given the stakes and consequences of severe weather it is not responsible for me to do so.

For S Central PA the drier than average month will alternate cooler and warmer, with the cooler periods all the way up to May 20 or so presenting chances of frost (we had frost on May 13, 2013). The warm spells will be more warm and dry than warm and oppressively humid. Temperatures should land on the cool side of normal overall but not as severe a cold departure as March. It will be drier than normal but not crop-threatening dry. There is a 50/50 chance I get to June 1 without one reading of 90F. A corollary would be May 1963. I do not see oppressive heat/humidity streaks, so hopefully lots of pleasant evenings for grilling.

Overall
Spring will generally be slow to come in much of the East, especially New England and the Great Lakes regions. The three months will average 0-2 below normal here, more so in the upper Midwest/GL. It will be wetter than normal there too, with avg/below avg here and New England. Much of the west will continue warmer/drier than normal.

That’s not what folks who saw the last few months as “suffering through a long winter” want to hear, but for weather nerds the severe weather chances and perhaps anomalous late snow chances should make things interesting. Odds are against record high temps here, but best chances are early April and perhaps around April 17-22. The first week and last 10-12 days of March and late April/early May present the best chances at record low temperatures.

My boldest call for the spring will be an “I told you so” if we see any flakes in May.


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Fall Countdown - Intervale, NH
First sub 50 low - 8/15 (low for season 48F 8/15)
First sub 45 low -
First sub 40 low -
First sub 35 low -
First frost -
First subfreezing low -
First sub 30 low -
First sub 25 low -
First flakes -
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yhm_hamilton
post Feb 21 2014, 05:41 PM
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no offence but I hope you are horribly wrong
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snowsux
post Feb 21 2014, 06:23 PM
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QUOTE(yhm_hamilton @ Feb 21 2014, 05:41 PM) *
no offence but I hope you are horribly wrong

Me too, but I doubt he is. Sounds about right. I personally don't care at this point though. I'm so sick of deep-freezing that a chilly March and April are gonna feel like two months in Aruba.
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The Snowman
post Feb 21 2014, 07:05 PM
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Early look at March tells me cold start, warm 1st-2nd week period, then back to cold. That warm pool in the NE Pacific will do wonders with ridging along the West Coast- wouldn't be surprised to see some NW flow severe weather events this season.

Discussed this in a new blog post, for anyone interested: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/...uary-march.html


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014 Severe Weather Season
Tornado Warnings: 0
Tornado Watches: 2
Severe Thunderstorm Warnings: 6
Severe Thunderstorm Watches: 4

Slight Risk Days: 11
Moderate Risk Days: 0
High Risk Days: 0


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


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OSNW3
post Feb 22 2014, 08:55 AM
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QUOTE(The Snowman @ Feb 21 2014, 06:05 PM) *
Early look at March tells me cold start, warm 1st-2nd week period, then back to cold. That warm pool in the NE Pacific will do wonders with ridging along the West Coast- wouldn't be surprised to see some NW flow severe weather events this season.

Discussed this in a new blog post, for anyone interested: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com/2014/...uary-march.html


I had hope for you in the latest blog post as you didn't mention LRC. But, in your FB update you did. Ugh. I dare you to begin mentioning the science in front of the magic. LOL. wink.gif


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idecline
post Feb 24 2014, 07:35 AM
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QUOTE(OSNW3 @ Feb 22 2014, 08:55 AM) *
I had hope for you in the latest blog post as you didn't mention LRC. But, in your FB update you did. Ugh. I dare you to begin mentioning the science in front of the magic. LOL. wink.gif


rolleyes.gif Spring Science...
Attached File  HookesLawForSpring_English.png ( 85.96K ) Number of downloads: 0

Just a little Spring theory for you....(Hooke's Law- courtesy: Wikipedia)

Okay...enough levity...but there is some validity to compression of 'waves' and elongation of 'waves'...

Speaking of waves a bunch of them are lining up in the Pacific as March is coming in with a roar on the West Coast..Attached File  P_24hr500bw.gif ( 63.01K ) Number of downloads: 1


These will be the first 'true' extratropical cyclones to take aim at the California coast in over a year..
The bountiful (but very geographically focused) storm of Feb.7,8 and 9 was a 'Pineapple' type of situation with the jet stream aiming energy directly at a restricted area..with many areas of California missing out on precipitation entirely...these should bring rain and snow up and down the entire West Coast and on into the Rockies and beyond...the major trough now in the Western Pacific will bring it's energies across the Pacific in the weeks to follow...

March looks to be stormy..with the PV clashing with more southerly based storms...meaning extreme weather potentials in the first three weeks of March....sever weather, over-running mixed-events, and very possibly, a EC extratropical cyclone (or Nor'easter (temps?)) roaring up into New England...

I think the warming waters of the potential El Nino...including a doozy of a Kelvin wave...will have a say in Spring weather... especially in the rain starved areas of the Southwest...and perhaps Texas, Oklahoma, and Kansas...I may be out on a limb..but with MJO headed clockwise 7-8-1 and a strong El Nino signal perhaps arising...the Southern track should be very active in fighting the PV off...


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idecline
post Feb 24 2014, 07:49 AM
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rolleyes.gif Here was an except from my Winter 'Handicapping' forecast from my thread 'California "Coffee Talk"- SF Bay Area Weather on this same Accuweather forums...

From Nov.27, 2013:
QUOTE
Feb. 16- 28: Back to California high and dry...potential pattern change occurring in Equatorial Pacific Ocean as hints are that an El Nino type surge of warm water may be in place to amplify March storms and really give the reservoirs and snowpack a chance to replenish California's water woes...

March could be the beginning of what I feel is a long term warming regime building as an El Nino is possibly ramping up for Fall of 2014...March could bring flooding rains to California, and get Texas and some other drought ravaged areas back to less severe conditions of drought...

A possible Nor'Easter could charge up the EC in early March if the waters do keep warming in Nino 3.4 region and another Kelvin wave drops the thermocline off the South American coast...this would be the first signal of a full blown 'El Nino' type warming...

LONGSHOTS: ENSO----definitely a 'wild' card....it is showing either the beginning of an 'El Nino' style warm up or if the cold water (along with the -EPO) overwhelm the Nino effects and send us back to La Nada...I don't see another extended La Nina phase unless the cold waters off the South American coast have too much persistence (long term cold pockets) from the crazy cold temperatures they have been at for many months...

SSW: Too many pattern flips in upper stratosphere in last few years...on pure gut-feeling I think there will be a dearth of activity as far as breaking up the PV this year..but I am just learning of the widespread effects that these SSW's can have...but without extreme blocking events like we had last Winter...I don't feel that the atmosphere will have to do anything 'radical' to even out the large temperature differences between poles and equatorial regions...

Warm water pooling: I feel that there will a lot of moisture to be gained from the GOM this Winter, with a dearth of Tropical activity in the Atlantic basin and GOM this past season...all of that 'unused' energy has go somewhere...a couple of late season Nor'Easter's may take of that, along with storms linking up big moisture taps of the Gulf when the troughs dig deep enough to channel that moisture up the EC.


After my so-so showing in the 'handicapping' department...I may try to give it a go for Spring... tongue.gif

EDIT: I forgot this !!!
Attached File  814prcp.new.gif ( 182.09K ) Number of downloads: 0


blink.gif

This post has been edited by idecline: Feb 24 2014, 08:01 AM


--------------------
Perception is everything

"If you don't know where you are going, any road will take you there". ~ Lewis Carroll


"A good traveler has no fixed plans, and is not intent on arriving" ~ Lao Tzu
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alczervik
post Feb 24 2014, 08:44 AM
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Based on the winter we have been experiencing, I have doubts that we will see average temps again for a long time. Too much snow on the ground and the winds always seem to come from the northwest so I don't expect much. Even after the snow does melt then you lose heating power due to suns rays working on heating up wet ground vs drier ground, which means less heating of the air.

I would not be surprised if we got snow in May.
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jdrenken
post Feb 24 2014, 08:48 AM
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Let's try to keep the focus on what we have remaining of winter. wink.gif


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