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> January 2nd-4th MidAtl / NE storm, Possibility: Medium range (4-8 days out)
PA ROAD DAWG
post Dec 29 2013, 11:09 PM
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QUOTE(mightysween @ Dec 29 2013, 11:04 PM) *
Last 3 runs have certainly gotten my attention here in Maine. Zilch yesterday and now GFS has me at 16+ inches. Let's see what Euro says.

Ya...lucky you. But what can I say, snow yields snow I guess. Extremely disappointing seeing this latest trend, extremely. Even the euro has been ever so slightly trending north.
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weatherDCA
post Dec 29 2013, 11:10 PM
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QUOTE(grandpaboy @ Dec 29 2013, 05:30 PM) *
Ugh...these Miller bs are killing me.......



Where is the "like" button
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JDClapper
post Dec 29 2013, 11:10 PM
Post #863




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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 29 2013, 11:05 PM) *
Amazing how far north this thing shifted. It had most of NEPA in the hard bit area now it's barely being brushed. Model mayhem


If this is anything like how 12/14 worked out.. I'd expect to see the accums start dropping south tomorrow and get PA back into a decent hit.

If it is anything like 12/14.


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2013: 33"

'13-'14: 45" and counting...
'12-'13: 33"
'11-'12: 13"
'10-'11: 42"
'09-'10: 33"
'08-'09: 20"
'07-'08: 32"
'06-'07: 29"
'05-'06: 24"
'04-'05: 36"
'03-'04: 53"
'02-'03: 63"
'01-'02: 20"
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PA ROAD DAWG
post Dec 29 2013, 11:13 PM
Post #864




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QUOTE(JDClapper @ Dec 29 2013, 11:10 PM) *
If this is anything like how 12/14 worked out.. I'd expect to see the accums start dropping south tomorrow and get PA back into a decent hit.

If it is anything like 12/14.

I forget what the models were showing a few days out. Did that trend in our favor? This has been trending 20 miles north every run... Not good
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JDClapper
post Dec 29 2013, 11:13 PM
Post #865




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Sadly, verbatim, using a ~51 day cycle on the LRC.. this would correspond with 11/12.. where CPA saw 0.02" of qpf. Meh.

11/17, which would be 1/7, was 0.2". I was hoping it was coming early.... but?


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2013: 33"

'13-'14: 45" and counting...
'12-'13: 33"
'11-'12: 13"
'10-'11: 42"
'09-'10: 33"
'08-'09: 20"
'07-'08: 32"
'06-'07: 29"
'05-'06: 24"
'04-'05: 36"
'03-'04: 53"
'02-'03: 63"
'01-'02: 20"
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JDClapper
post Dec 29 2013, 11:15 PM
Post #866




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QUOTE(PA ROAD DAWG @ Dec 29 2013, 11:13 PM) *
I forget what the models were showing a few days out. Did that trend in our favor? This has been trending 20 miles north every run... Not good


I tuned in later (compared to this threat).. but from what I remember, 72-96 hours out was a solid NY through NE hit.. NPA ok accums, but CPA and south not much.. then within 72 it kept trending slowly south where CPA on north was consistently in the 6"+ zone.



--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2013: 33"

'13-'14: 45" and counting...
'12-'13: 33"
'11-'12: 13"
'10-'11: 42"
'09-'10: 33"
'08-'09: 20"
'07-'08: 32"
'06-'07: 29"
'05-'06: 24"
'04-'05: 36"
'03-'04: 53"
'02-'03: 63"
'01-'02: 20"
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shane o mac
post Dec 29 2013, 11:17 PM
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Gives us good snows ! wink.gif
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NwsScott
post Dec 29 2013, 11:20 PM
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00z Ukmet is about to show a bomb...the energy is digging into New Mexico...more amplified than 12z. I will post more when it updates beyond 72hrs but it appears as it will show a huge noreaster.
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d-_-b
post Dec 29 2013, 11:22 PM
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Eye candy on the GFS, really can't complain about consistency between runs and models for MBY


--------------------
2014-15: 00.0"
Departure from average to date: 00.0"
Departure from seasonal average (44"): 00.0"
(updated: 10/01/14)

Past winters:
2013-14: 58.9" (+14.9" from average)
2012-13: 63.4" (+19.5" from average)
2011-12: 9.3" (-34.6" from average)
2010-11: 81" (+37.1" from average)
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JDClapper
post Dec 29 2013, 11:27 PM
Post #870




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QUOTE(d-_-b @ Dec 29 2013, 11:22 PM) *
Eye candy on the GFS, really can't complain about consistency between runs and models for MBY


I'm still happy to see the GFS keeping me in a 2-4" zone .. I will take anything.. would definitely prefer 6+ .. but, begger's can't be choosers.

NWSscott.. show me the money! (UKmet) haha


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2013: 33"

'13-'14: 45" and counting...
'12-'13: 33"
'11-'12: 13"
'10-'11: 42"
'09-'10: 33"
'08-'09: 20"
'07-'08: 32"
'06-'07: 29"
'05-'06: 24"
'04-'05: 36"
'03-'04: 53"
'02-'03: 63"
'01-'02: 20"
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Beers1
post Dec 29 2013, 11:26 PM
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Member No.: 13,216





QUOTE(NwsScott @ Dec 29 2013, 11:20 PM) *
00z Ukmet is about to show a bomb...the energy is digging into New Mexico...more amplified than 12z. I will post more when it updates beyond 72hrs but it appears as it will show a huge noreaster.

How reliable is this model at this point out... Also doesn't the ukmet and euro usually show very similar scenarios
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NwsScott
post Dec 29 2013, 11:28 PM
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Ukmet has an amazing look. Intense vort max at base of trough in New Mexico...even a piece of leftover upper level energy over Texas is phasing in. Ridge looks good into western Canada...you can see strong confluence over the east...suggesting the low will origin from the southeast. Big eye candy, but again we have no clue which model is right ukmet or ecmwf/gfs.
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Beers1
post Dec 29 2013, 11:30 PM
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QUOTE(NwsScott @ Dec 29 2013, 11:28 PM) *
Ukmet has an amazing look. Intense vort max at base of trough in New Mexico...even a piece of leftover upper level energy over Texas is phasing in. Ridge looks good into western Canada...you can see strong confluence over the east...suggesting the low will origin from the southeast. Big eye candy, but again we have no clue which model is right ukmet or ecmwf/gfs.

Can u post some images
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Harleigh Hal
post Dec 29 2013, 11:32 PM
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For Schpits and giggles.... combined 12-14 and 01-02 runs!

01-02-14 Run on Left Side

Attached Image


This post has been edited by Harleigh Hal: Dec 29 2013, 11:33 PM


--------------------
2013-2014 Snowfall

65.5 Inches thru 02-15-14
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NwsScott
post Dec 29 2013, 11:35 PM
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wyoming ukmet
QUOTE(Beers1 @ Dec 29 2013, 11:30 PM) *
Can u post some images

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JDClapper
post Dec 30 2013, 12:06 AM
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CMC looks like a good hit for NY through MA .. especially E-MA/Boston.

For CPA.. still looks like 1-3 or 2-4" if really high ratios (NEPA, maybe 3-6"?). I am happy with that at the moment. biggrin.gif

http://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn...pe_gem_reg.html


--------------------
Avg. Snowfall 2001-2013: 33"

'13-'14: 45" and counting...
'12-'13: 33"
'11-'12: 13"
'10-'11: 42"
'09-'10: 33"
'08-'09: 20"
'07-'08: 32"
'06-'07: 29"
'05-'06: 24"
'04-'05: 36"
'03-'04: 53"
'02-'03: 63"
'01-'02: 20"
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shane o mac
post Dec 30 2013, 01:19 AM
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Have a feeling the euro is going back to its bomb hit for NS .
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shane o mac
post Dec 30 2013, 01:21 AM
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Ya it blows up off maine ,. talk about bombastic
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jb1979
post Dec 30 2013, 01:19 AM
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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Dec 30 2013, 01:19 AM) *
Have a feeling the euro is going back to its bomb hit for NS .



Through 72 you can really see how much potential for something much bigger there is, thats all Ineed to see to stay tuned in regardless of how the rest of the run(s) goes.


--------------------
_____________________________________________
Winter 2014 - 66.3 inches. 2nd highest total on record
December 8 - 3.2 inches
December 10 - 3.2 inches
December 14 - 2.7 inches
December 16 - 1.2 inches
January 2-3 - 8.0 inches
January 21 - 10 inches
January 25 - 2.0 inches
January 29 - 1.0 inches
February 3 - 9 inches
February 9 - 3 inches
February 13-14 - 15 inches
February 15 - 1.0 inch
February 18 - 3.0 inches
March 3 - 2.0 inches
March 17 - 2.0 inches
_____________________________________________

Winter 2013 - 17.7 inches
Winter 2012 - 11.3 inches
Winter 2011 - 47.3 inches
Winter 2010 - 83.2 inches (Record)
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UFASUPERSTORM
post Dec 30 2013, 01:20 AM
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QUOTE(shane o mac @ Dec 30 2013, 01:19 AM) *
Have a feeling the euro is going back to its bomb hit for NS .


This post has been edited by UFASUPERSTORM: Dec 30 2013, 01:21 AM
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