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> Jan 4th-7th Plains/MW/GL/OV Blizzard OBS, Please Post Last Minute Forecasts and OBS
Louieloy102
post Jan 4 2014, 07:33 AM
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Precip breaking out into the plains/near the midwest.
Let the games begin.

HPC thoughts 4+ inches:
Attached Image


Attached Image

Current watch/warning map:
Attached Image


This post has been edited by Louieloy102: Jan 5 2014, 07:31 PM
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OSUWx2
post Jan 4 2014, 08:08 AM
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Err, posted this in the Forecast thread and meant to post it in here.

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WeatherMonger
post Jan 4 2014, 08:09 AM
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I was going to sleep through the NAM but woke up and seen warning, peeked at the 6Z's and now I await it's run laugh.gif

Too bad we're not on the ocean, red sunrise here. Red sky in morning, sailors take warning
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OSUWx2
post Jan 4 2014, 08:12 AM
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Columbus WS Watch calling for 4-8".

QUOTE
URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE WILMINGTON OH
420 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

...ACCUMULATING SNOW EXPECTED SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT...
...BRUTALLY COLD WIND CHILL TO FOLLOW MONDAY INTO TUESDAY...

.A WINTER STORM WILL MOVE ACROSS THE OHIO VALLEY SUNDAY AND
SUNDAY NIGHT. ARCTIC AIR MOVING IN BEHIND THE STORM WILL USHER IN
THE COLDEST WEATHER IN 20 YEARS.

KYZ089-090-092>098-OHZ055-056-063>065-072-073-078>080-041730-
/O.NEW.KILN.WC.A.0001.140106T1000Z-140107T2200Z/
/O.EXB.KILN.WS.A.0001.140105T1400Z-140106T0800Z/
CARROLL-GALLATIN-KENTON-CAMPBELL-OWEN-GRANT-PENDLETON-BRACKEN-
ROBERTSON-FRANKLIN OH-LICKING-FAYETTE OH-PICKAWAY-FAIRFIELD-
CLINTON-ROSS-CLERMONT-BROWN-HIGHLAND-
INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...CARROLLTON...WARSAW...INDEPENDENCE...
ALEXANDRIA...OWENTON...WILLIAMSTOWN...FALMOUTH...B
OOKSVILLE...
MOUNT OLIVET...COLUMBUS...NEWARK...WASHINGTON COURT HOUSE...
CIRCLEVILLE...LANCASTER...WILMINGTON...CHILLICOTHE
..MILFORD...
GEORGETOWN...HILLSBORO
420 AM EST SAT JAN 4 2014

...WINTER STORM WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH LATE
SUNDAY NIGHT...
...WIND CHILL WATCH IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON...

THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN WILMINGTON HAS ISSUED A WIND
CHILL WATCH...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM LATE SUNDAY NIGHT THROUGH
TUESDAY AFTERNOON. A WINTER STORM WATCH HAS ALSO BEEN ISSUED.
THIS WINTER STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FROM SUNDAY MORNING THROUGH
LATE SUNDAY NIGHT.

* HAZARD TYPES...SNOW SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT FOLLOWED BY
EXTREMELY COLD WIND CHILL READINGS MONDAY INTO TUESDAY.

* ACCUMULATIONS...SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 8 INCHES...ALONG WITH
A TRACE OF ICE ACCUMULATION POSSIBLE.

* TIMING...SNOW AND RAIN...POSSIBLY MIXED WITH FREEZING
RAIN...WILL DEVELOP SUNDAY MORNING. THIS WILL CHANGE OVER TO ALL
SNOW SUNDAY AFTERNOON. THE HEAVIEST SNOW WILL OCCUR SUNDAY
AFTERNOON INTO EARLY SUNDAY EVENING AND THEN TAPER OFF TOWARDS
MIDNIGHT. ARCTIC AIR WILL SPREAD INTO THE REGION LATE SUNDAY
NIGHT AND REMAIN THROUGH TUESDAY.

* IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED DUE TO
REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS. THERE WILL BE SOME
BRIEF PERIODS OF FREEZING RAIN...BUT NO ACCUMULATION OF FREEZING
RAIN IS EXPECTED. THE FRIGID CONDITIONS WILL BE DANGEROUS TO
THOSE VENTURING OUTSIDE. PROLONGED EXPOSURE MAY CAUSE FROSTBITE.

* WINDS...WEST 10 TO 20 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 30 MPH SUNDAY NIGHT
THROUGH TUESDAY.

* TEMPERATURES...5 ABOVE TO 5 BELOW LATE SUNDAY NIGHT AND
MONDAY...8 TO 15 BELOW MONDAY NIGHT...AND 3 BELOW TO 10 ABOVE
ON TUESDAY.

* WIND CHILL READINGS...10 TO 20 BELOW SUNDAY NIGHT...THEN
DROPPING TO 25 TO 35 BELOW MONDAY AFTERNOON INTO TUESDAY MORNING.
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WeatherMonger
post Jan 4 2014, 08:15 AM
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QUOTE
Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Lincoln IL
519 AM CST Sat Jan 4 2014

.DISCUSSION...
ISSUED 300 AM CST Sat Jan 4 2014
Central Illinois between systems this morning as a high pressure
ridge stretches out over the Atlantic coast...and several waves
make their way over the Rockies in the west. Low center currently
over the Oklahoma panhandle will be a contributor to the next
winter storm for the region. Overall, the models have been fairly
consistent with producing high snowfall totals and brutal cold on
the back side of this system. Forecast is adjusting details and
keeping an eye on the trends. Conflicts about spread of greatest
snowfall, as there will likely be a sharp gradient on the NW side
of the snow track, one of the concerns. But abundant moisture
through the column and very cold temperatures with sustained lift
in the region resulting in a major snow event for the weekend.

SHORT TERM...Today and tomorrow...
Snow. Frontogenetic forcing starting to develop and spread across
the CWA this afternoon will bring snowfall starting NW of the
Illinois River before sunset. Snow will continue through the
overnight, picking up intensity after midnight with the heavier
snowfall totals east of the Interstate 55 corridor after midnight.
At this point snow starts to intensify as the addition of the
jet influence aloft adds into the dynamics. The surface system
moves through and pulls out to the east, resulting in major snow
fall particularly along and south of Interstate 70. Open wave
aloft providing no isentropic lift...dynamics are confined to jet
and frontogenetic forcing. But the column is saturated and PW
values for several 6 hr pds in the .3 -.5 range. Prolonged
snowfall with that much water resulting in 6-12 inches of snow
through Sunday night for areas south and east of the Illinois
River Valley. Heaviest snowfall in the region btwn the Interstate
70 corridor and the Ohio River Valley. Whereas the snowfall NW of
the Interstate 55 corridor to the Illinois River Valley may be
more borderline with regards to the Winter Storm Warning criteria
within allotted time, impacts between the snowfall and the blowing
snow is enough to expand the Warning area to include up to the
river. Winds becoming gusty and ramping up to 15-25 mph sustained
on Sunday afternoon and gusting in excess of 30, particularly in
the east Sunday night as the sfc system winds up and pressure
gradient increases. WSW timing through at least 06z should cover
the worst portion of the blowing snow and high winds. Temperatures
Sunday night plummeting into the negative teens as brutally cold
air is pushed into the region behind the exiting storm.
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OSUWx2
post Jan 4 2014, 08:15 AM
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HPC maps. Compared to yesterday's 4pm map, definitely shifted S/E for us Ohio in Day 2.



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WeatherMonger
post Jan 4 2014, 08:17 AM
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Day 1 >4"



Day 2 4"



8"






This post has been edited by WeatherMonger: Jan 4 2014, 08:18 AM
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OSUWx2
post Jan 4 2014, 08:17 AM
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Infographic from ILN

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WeatherMonger
post Jan 4 2014, 08:18 AM
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Low track

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WeatherMonger
post Jan 4 2014, 08:20 AM
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Surface



Pressure falls

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IndyRayne
post Jan 4 2014, 08:23 AM
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Starting to become concerned about the possibility of that dirty 4-letter word, "rain" for the early part of this event... I know it probably depends on which model you look at... but I've seen it mentioned more and more as time goes on. dry.gif
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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 4 2014, 08:46 AM
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CLE:

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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 4 2014, 08:52 AM
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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 4 2014, 08:56 AM
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WestLafayette62
post Jan 4 2014, 09:04 AM
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QUOTE(JymGanahlRocks @ Jan 4 2014, 08:56 AM) *

Juicy!!


--------------------
If I had 1 wish, I'd wish for more wishes. And Tons of snow.
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The Snowman
post Jan 4 2014, 09:07 AM
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12z NAM coming in NW.
Warning snows in LOT before event is done.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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RobB
post Jan 4 2014, 09:07 AM
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12Z NAM low party at my house smile.gif
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ctrlohio59
post Jan 4 2014, 09:08 AM
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Anyone in Ohio East of Lima won't like the NAM
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JymGanahlRocks
post Jan 4 2014, 09:09 AM
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hour 36...SLP roughly over Findlay, OH (about 100 miles NW of where both the Euro/GFS show the SLP at that time...)

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RobB
post Jan 4 2014, 09:09 AM
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Will the Euro and GFS have egg on its face with this system?? Asia's 'Only Time Will Tell' song comes to mind smile.gif
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