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> Long Range Winter 2014-2015 Outlooks, Forecasts/Trends, Thoughts, Forecasts and Trends
VASnowstormHunte...
post Jan 18 2014, 02:53 PM
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Jan. 18th, 2014... 316 days until we officially kick off Winter 2014-2015.

Never too early to start, and no Im not starting this because I think 2013-2014 is dead wink.gif

Feel free to post your thoughts on what you think will happen in the winter of 2014-2015... even though it's a good way down the road, it will be December 1, 2014 before we know it!
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BtownWxWatcher
post Jan 18 2014, 02:58 PM
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El Niņo


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No Wishcasting,Just Forecasting
twitter: @nicksterdude010


Winter 2014-2015:Weak El Niņo? Return of the Polar Vortex or Torch?
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VASnowstormHunte...
post Jan 18 2014, 03:10 PM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Jan 18 2014, 02:58 PM) *
El Niņo


Being three hours south of you... that my hope as well.

We have been eeking out OK winters in the last half of Feb and Mar the past three years.

The last true blue season long winter for us was 2009-2010.
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MotownWX
post Jan 18 2014, 06:47 PM
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Without seeing one model, it almost feels like the safest bet is typically "warm/dry ridge in the West, cold trough in the East." Seems to be the popular setup in recent years, with the exception of Winter 2011-12.
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goblue96
post Jan 18 2014, 10:23 PM
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First Day above 60: April 2

First Day above 65: April 10

First Day above 70: April 13

First Day above 75: April 13

First Day above 80: May 12

First Day above 85: May 12

First Day above 90:

First Day above 95:

Days 90+:
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grace
post Jan 19 2014, 12:34 AM
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QUOTE(BtownWxWatcher @ Jan 18 2014, 01:58 PM) *
El Niņo


Yes sir!! If the warm waters are in the right place & we can actually get a -NAO next year.....could be cold with juicy storms. smile.gif

Then again....if the warmest waters are in the wrong place....we screwed!! dry.gif
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The Snowman
post Jan 19 2014, 08:42 PM
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History strongly suggests we're Nino-bound, though since weather doesn't usually play by the rules (except the Bering Sea Rule (pun intended)), guess we'll want to sit back and wait for a few more months before looking at those Nino projections again.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

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bvrdgpa
post Mar 12 2014, 10:31 AM
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ENSO warming in the news.

http://www.cnbc.com/id/101483617
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Fire/Rescue
post Mar 16 2014, 08:51 AM
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Bastardi is speaking quite strongly in regards to the coming Winter "14/15" as being quite COLD/Stormy for a lot of the CONUS, along with some others (Pro Mets-hobbyist) as well.
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kpk33x
post Mar 17 2014, 08:20 AM
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QUOTE(Fire/Rescue @ Mar 16 2014, 09:51 AM) *
Bastardi is speaking quite strongly in regards to the coming Winter "14/15" as being quite COLD/Stormy for a lot of the CONUS, along with some others (Pro Mets-hobbyist) as well.


JB's winter forecast is easy. He copies and pastes last year's cold and snowy forecast, changes the dates, and posts. tongue.gif


--------------------
Fall Countdown - Intervale, NH
First sub 50 low - 8/15
First sub 45 low - 9/9
First sub 40 low - 9/13
First sub 35 low - 9/15 (low for season 34F on 9/15, 9/19)
First frost - 9/15
First subfreezing low -
First sub 30 low -
First sub 25 low -
First flakes -
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SnowMan11
post Mar 17 2014, 08:57 AM
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Spring Fail



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Winter =)
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jdrenken
post Mar 17 2014, 09:23 AM
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QUOTE(SnowMan11 @ Mar 17 2014, 08:57 AM) *
Spring Fail



Plenty of a heads up about...

The "joy" of #organicforecasting and when you think like there is no box!

http://weather.kopn.org/wp/?p=503


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KartAnimal29
post Mar 17 2014, 07:42 PM
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Check this out guys Snow's a No-Show: 8 Images of the Roughest Iditarod Yet
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grace
post Mar 19 2014, 12:00 AM
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New JAMSTEC....if Sept-Nov is any indication.....yikes:

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OSNW3
post Mar 19 2014, 07:55 PM
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QUOTE(grace @ Mar 18 2014, 11:00 PM) *
New JAMSTEC....if Sept-Nov is any indication.....yikes:



That outlook keeps the Typhoon rule afloat. But what about the Bering Sea Rule. Total disregard. Warmth on both sides?


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WEATHERFREAK
post Apr 6 2014, 06:14 PM
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Looks like El Nino's gonna be a big one this year(possibly record-breaking)! Since it appears to be going basin-wide, I think a cold front-loaded winter(NOV/Dec/early Jan) followed by a massive thaw could be in the cards!

This post has been edited by WEATHERFREAK: Apr 6 2014, 06:15 PM


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mr freeze
post Apr 6 2014, 06:17 PM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Apr 6 2014, 07:14 PM) *
Looks like El Nino's gonna be a big one this year(possibly record-breaking)! Since it appears to be going basin-wide, I think a cold front-loaded winter(NOV/Dec/early Jan) followed by a massive thaw could be in the cards!


It would be extremely hard to get a super nino in a cold pdo.


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"FOR THE WINTER 2014-15........If the Modoki Nino forms......LOOK OUT! Is it really possible to top last winter?
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The Snowman
post Apr 6 2014, 07:39 PM
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QUOTE(mr freeze @ Apr 6 2014, 06:17 PM) *
It would be extremely hard to get a super nino in a cold pdo.

Typically, yes, however the Kelvin Wave we are experiencing right now is the strongest in the satellite era at this moment, multiple degrees warmer than the 1997 KW at the same time as this year's KW (March-April).

We are in uncharted waters at this point in time- can't rule anything out given the circumstances.

I'm all in for a strong El Nino at this point. Might backfire, but by winter, we're likely to see a strong Nino IMO.


--------------------
My Blog: http://theweathercentre.blogspot.com

2014-2015 Winter
Winter Storm Warnings: 0
Winter Storm Watches: 0
Winter Weather Advisories: 0

Snowfall to date: 0.0"
Expected winter snowfall (prediction made Sept. 3): 42.5"


Annual Snowfall
2013-2014: 69.5"
2012-2013: 37''


You can never have too much hockey, weather or Pink Floyd.

QUOTE(John Wiedeman, May 29, 2013)
The Blackhawks have dispatched the Detroit Red Wings!
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WEATHERFREAK
post Apr 7 2014, 09:40 AM
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QUOTE(mr freeze @ Apr 6 2014, 07:17 PM) *
It would be extremely hard to get a super nino in a cold pdo.


The PDO has recently warmed. wink.gif


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"Windy has wings to fly".
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jdrenken
post Apr 7 2014, 09:42 AM
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QUOTE(WEATHERFREAK @ Apr 7 2014, 09:40 AM) *
The PDO has recently warmed. wink.gif


Data? wink.gif


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QUOTE
For the record...I AM THE MISSOURI MAULER!


It's a work in progress!

Have a question? Look at our FAQ first.






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